“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Muddy Waters, Dangerous Undercurrents and Rocky Shoals

Muddy Waters:
As of this writing, Iran is developing nuclear capabilities. That much is known but beyond that, we only have speculation. The Israelis say that Iran will have a bomb within six months, US intelligence has said 6 years, and others have said that the Persian bomb already exists and of course, the useless IAEA is totally clueless. As with Saddam Hussein’s regime during the “containment years,” we are left wondering about the capabilities and schedule of the Iranian nuclear program and the intent of the Iranian regime.

Dangerous Undercurrents:
Throughout the 1990’s Democrats were on board with US Intelligence estimate regarding Saddam Hussein’s capabilities and intentions regarding chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and programs. Fortunately, they deposited a wealth of quotes attesting to the dangers of an unchecked Saddam Hussein.
President Clinton: "We Have To Defend Our Future From These Predators Of The 21st Century. They Feed On The Free Flow Of Information And Technology. They Actually Take Advantage Of The Freer Movement Of People, Information And Ideas. And They Will Be All The More Lethal If We Allow Them To Build Arsenals Of Nuclear, Chemical And Biological Weapons And The Missiles To Deliver Them. We Simply Cannot Allow That To Happen. There Is No More Clear Example Of This Threat Than Saddam Hussein's Iraq. His Regime Threatens The Safety Of His People, The Stability Of His Region And The Security Of All The Rest Of Us." (President Clinton, Remarks To Joint Chiefs Of Staff And Pentagon Staff, 2 /17/98)

Gore: " If You Allow Someone Like Saddam Hussein To Get Nuclear Weapons, Ballistic Missiles, Chemical Weapons, Biological Weapons, How Many People Is He Going To Kill With Such Weapons? He's Already Demonstrated A Willingness To Use These Weapons ..." (CNN's "Larry King Live," 12/16/98)
They are not likely to make that mistake again.

In the 2004 Presidential campaign, Democrat politics took a hard left turn as the Howard Dean hard-left, anti-war momentum in Missouri drew the “moderate Democrat” Presidential candidates to the left, leaving only Joe Liebermann supporting the war in Iraq. Bitterness over the Bush reelection lead the Democrats into a permanent attack mode. The “Bush lied” and “Joe Wilson, Niger Yellowcake and Sixteen Words” strategy took a heavy toll on the Bush poll numbers and as a result, we are unlikely to see our political leaders take a strong stand against Iranian efforts. When this recent history is coupled with lingering doubt of US Intelligence capabilities, we can expect a deafening silence from our politicians in regard to Iran.

Rocky Shoals:
It is doubtful that partisan politics will be set aside in favor of national security interests. Both parties are likely to be very circumspect about saying anything which can later be turned against them politically and a side effect will be poor leadership at a time when the nation needs its’ leaders united.

It will be to America’s enduring shame if political events of recent years leave us incapable of confronting the irrationality of a radical Islamic Republic hell-bent on providing the nuclear umbrella for jihad.


  1. Where Saddam had a history of using WMD, Iran does not.

    When Saddam stopped sending checks to the families of Palistinian bombers, the checks stopped.

    HB is allied with Iran, but not even judged a terrorist orginization in Europe.

    Where Saddam had violated numerous UN Resolutions, Iran has not.
    While Saddam violated UN Sanctions regiemes, Iran has not.

    Iran says it is operating within it's rights under the NPT. Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela and Iraq all agree. Wonder how Pakistan feels about Iranian nuclear electrical generating capacity?

  2. To take the US to war against Iran will be a much more difficult sell than going against Saddam, in Iraq.

    Either before or after the November election, seriously.
    Seriously more difficult.
    Even if the Republicans were to hold their own, not losing a single seat in Congress.

    As buddy said, even controlling all the levers of elective Federal power is not enough for Mr Bush to succeed.

    So seriously difficult that war will only come as a result of Iranian aggression, as in an US Retaliatory response. There will not be anymore preemptive wars, not for the balance of Mr Bush's term anyway.

  3. Even Mr Bush says
    "... The world has no objection to Iran's pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program. We are working toward a diplomatic solution to this crisis, ...

    Just wait for Abracadbra speach, he'll talk about his country's pursuit of the peaceful atom, as is Iran's right.

    All the pieces in place for the peaceful solution.
    Pass the peanuts, will ya?

  4. The Chinese will verify that the Russians are not letting the Iranians cascade to much, for to long.

  5. But what of Mr Warner, Mr Graham and the fence sitting Mr Allen?

  6. The chief judge in Saddam Hussein's genocide trial has been replaced, Al-Iraqiya state television reported Tuesday. The station did not say why the change was made, but the Arab satellite stations Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera said Judge Abdullah al-Amiri was replaced at the request of the Iraqi prime minister.
    The name of the new judge was not reported. There was no immediate official confirmation that the judge had been replaced.

    Prosecutors had asked for al-Amiri to be replaced after he allowed Saddam to lash out at Kurdish witnesses. And last week, al-Amiri stirred further controversy when he told the former president that "you were not a dictator."

  7. "... President Jacques Chirac has broken ranks with the US and Britain by calling for the suspension of UN Security Council action against Iran during negotiations over its nuclear programme.

    In a radio interview yesterday before flying to New York for the UN General Assembly, the French President provoked a diplomatic storm by backing Iran's demand that the Security Council should halt its involvement in the nuclear dossier.

    The demand is spelt out in Iran's confidential 20-page response to a Western offer of technological and economic co-operation in return for a freeze on nuclear activities which could lead to production of a nuclear weapon. ...

    ... "We must, on the one hand, together, Iran and the six countries, meet and set an agenda, then start negotiations. Then, during these negotiations, I suggest that the six renounce referring [Iran to] the UN Security Council and that Iran renounce uranium enrichment during negotiations," M. Chirac said.

    The French President is the first European leader to state publicly that a freeze by Iran is not a precondition for opening talks. The concession to Iran seems to be linked to events in Lebanon, where there had been concern that French soldiers may be targeted by Iran's proxy militia, Hizbollah, over France's previously hardline stance in the nuclear negotiations. ...

    Explain to me, again, how HB losing a 1,000 men, coupled with an Israeli withdrawl and Franco insertion into Lebanon was good for both US and Israel.

    The "West" is cratering before the charge is even fired.

    "... The world has no objection to Iran's pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program. ..."

    The true meaning of truly is truly in order. As is "unacceptable", right up there with "grave consequences" vis a vie Ronald Reagan and Pakistan's nuclear bombs.

  8. "truly" will be defined by the IAEA, as they are the appointed International Judge of nuclear truths.

    The tangled webs we weave...

  9. They certainly generate enough "poop" there to do it.

  10. It's a sacrifice we make in order to feed you small-state people your steaks & burgers.

    Here's a fella at Nat'l Review who wants us to look also at the good side of the ME situation.

  11. Hydrocarbons are not popular in the trading pits today--a big NatGas hedge is in trouble, and traders are baling. if you missed buying a few shares of Big Oil, back before the run-up, you may get another chance in the next few days--

    Me, I'm getting ready to do wall street 1929 and jump out the window.

    however, being only at ground level, all I'll get is a little dusty.

  12. Gotta be diversificated, always, then ya can grin & bear it.

  13. Anyhoo, spot crude down two+ as we speak, @ 61+, looks like it's headed to 56 or 58. That's down 20 off the 78 high a few weeks ago. Gold down, dollar up, treasury yields falling. home-builder's stocks are building a bottom, commodities prices falling across the board, inflation numbers declining. everything's looking rosy for the 'soft-landing'.

    And WaPo sez, don't be worried about Tel Aviv, anymore.

  14. I don't know about Tel Aviv, but Jerusalem is under siege. Now, if only we could get them transexual martyrs to march on Tehran, surely they could get the Mullahs to bend a little.

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  16. Get the Military LGBT to take on the LGBT in the Outside/Lefty/Commie/America Trashing LGBT "community."

  17. Thanks for the great posts and links, guys, I be busy.
    Esp your synopsissies 'Rat, very helpful indeed.

  18. This can't succeed in reality, that is what I think.