COLLECTIVE MADNESS


“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Sunday, February 17, 2008

We Are Not Alone

Milky Way over Utah (Click the Photo to enlarge)

'Hundreds of worlds' in Milky Way
By Helen Briggs
Science reporter, BBC News, Boston


Scientists say there may be many more worlds in our solar system
Rocky planets, possibly with conditions suitable for life, may be more common than previously thought in our galaxy, a study has found.

New evidence suggests more than half the Sun-like stars in the Milky Way could have similar planetary systems.

There may also be hundreds of undiscovered worlds in outer parts of our Solar System, astronomers believe.

Future studies of such worlds will radically alter our understanding of how planets are formed, they say.

New findings about planets were presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston.

Nasa telescope

Michael Meyer, an astronomer from the University of Arizona, said he believes Earth-like planets are probably very common around Sun-like stars.

"Our observations suggest that between 20% and 60% of Sun-like stars have evidence for the formation of rocky planets not unlike the processes we think led to planet Earth," he said.

"That is very exciting."

Mr Meyer's team used the US space agency's Spitzer space telescope to look at groups of stars with masses similar to the Sun.

They detected discs of cosmic dust around stars in some of the youngest groups surveyed.

The dust is believed to be a by-product of rocky debris colliding and merging to form planets.

Nasa's Kepler mission to search for Earth-sized and smaller planets, due to be launched next year, is expected to reveal more clues about these distant undiscovered worlds.

Frozen worlds

Some astronomers believe there may be hundreds of small rocky bodies in the outer edges of our own Solar System, and perhaps even a handful of frozen Earth-sized worlds.

Speaking at the AAAS, Nasa's Alan Stern said he believes we have found only the tip of the iceberg in terms of planets within our own Solar System.

More than a thousand objects had already been discovered in the Kuiper belt alone, he said, many rivalling the planet Pluto in size.

"Our old view, that the Solar System had nine planets will be supplanted by a view that there are hundreds if not thousands of planets in our Solar System," he told BBC News.

He believes many of these planets will be icy, some will be rocky, and there may even be objects the same mass as Earth.

"It could be that there are objects of Earth mass in the oort cloud (a cloud surrounding our planetary system) but they would be frozen at these distances," Mr Stern added.

"They would look like a frozen Earth."

Goldilocks zone

Excitement about finding other Earth-like planets is driven by the idea that some might contain life or perhaps, centuries from now, allow human colonies to be set up on them.

The key to this search, said Debra Fischer of San Francisco State University, California, was the Goldilocks zone.

This refers to an area of space in which a planet is just the right distance from its parent star so that its surface is not-too-hot or not-too-cold to support liquid water.

"To my mind there are two things we have to go after; we have to find the right mass planet and it has to be at the right distance from the star," she said.

The AAAS meeting concludes on Monday.


73 comments:

  1. "Where Is Everybody?": An Account of Fermi's Question
    Eric M. Jones, Los Alamos National Laboratories

    Summary: Fermi's Famous question, now central to debates about the prevalence of extraterrestrial civilizations, arose during a luncheon conversation with Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller, and Herbert York in the summer of 1950. Fermi's companions on that day have provided accounts of the incident.

    Part of the current debate about the existence and prevalence of extraterrestrials concerns interstellar travel and settlement [1-3]. In 1975, Michael Hart argued that interstellar travel would be feasible for a technologically advanced civilization and that a migration would fill the Galaxy in a few million years [4]. Since that interval is short compared with the age of the Galaxy, he then concluded that the absence of settlers or evidence of their engineering projects in the Solar System meant that there are no extraterrestrials.

    Newman, Sagan, and Shklovski [2,5] recall that a legend of science says that Enrico Fermi asked the question, "Where are they?" during a visit to Los Alamos during the Second World War or shortly thereafter. Fermi's question has been mentioned in several other recent publications, but historical basis for the attribution has not been established. Thanks to the excellent memory of Hans Mark, who had heard a retelling at Los Alamos in the early 1950s, we now know that Fermi did make the remark during a lunchtime conversation about 1950. His companions were Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller, and Herbert York. All three have provided accounts of the incident.

    We begin with Konopinski: "1 have only fragmentary recollections about the occasion.... I do have a fairly clear memory of how the discussion of extra-terrestrials got started while Enrico, Edward, Herb York, and I were walking to lunch at Fuller Lodge.

    "When l joined the party, I found being discussed evidence about flying saucers. That immediately brought to my mind a cartoon I had recently seen in the New Yorker, explaining why public trash cans were disappearing from the streets of New York City. The New York papers were making a fuss about that. The cartoon showed what was evidently a flying saucer sitting in the background and, streaming toward it, 'little green men' (endowed with antennas) carrying the trash cans. More amusing was Fermi's comment, that it was a very reasonable theory since it accounted for two separate phenomena: the reports of flying saucers as well as the disappearance of the trash cans. There ensued a discussion as to whether the saucers could somehow exceed the speed of light."

    Teller remembers: "My recollection of the event involving Fermi . . . is clear, but only partial. To begin with, I was there at the incident. I believe it occurred shortly after the end of the war on a visit of Fermi to the Laboratory, which quite possibly might have been during a summer.

    "I remember having walked over with Fermi and others to the Fuller Lodge for lunch. While we walked over, there was a conversation which I believe to have been quite brief and superficial on a subject only vaguely connected with space travel. I have a vague recollection, which may not be accurate, that we talked about flying saucers and the obvious statement that the flying saucers are not real. I also remember that Fermi explicitly raised the question, and I think he directed it at me, 'Edward, what do you think? How probable is it that within the next ten years we shall have clear evidence of a material object moving faster than light?' I remember that my answer vas ' 1 o-6.. Fermi said, 'This is much too low. The probability is more like ten percent' (the well known figure for a Fermi miracle.) "

    Konopinski says that he does not recall the numerical values, "except that they changed rapidly as Edward and Fermi bounced arguments off each other."

    Teller continues: "The conversation, according to my memory, was only vaguely connected with astronautics partly on account of flying saucers might be due to extraterrestrial people (here I believe the remarks were purely negative), partly because exceeding light velocity would make interstellar travel one degree more real.

    "We then talked about other things which I do not remember and maybe approximately eight of us sat down together for lunch." Konopinski and York are quite certain that there were only four of them.

    It was after we were at the luncheon table," Konopinski recalls, "that Fermi surprised us with the question 'but where is everybody?' It was his way of putting it that drew laughs from us ."

    York, who does not recall the preliminary conversation on the walk to Fuller Lodge, does remember that "virtually apropos of nothing Fermi said, 'Don't you ever wonder where everybody is?' Somehow . . . we all knew he meant extra-terrestrials."

    Teller remembers the question in much the same way. "The discussion had nothing to do with astronomy or with extraterrestrial beings. I think it was some down-to-earth topic. Then, in the middle of this conversation, Fermi came out with the quite unexpected question 'Where is everybody?' . . . The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that in spite of Fermi's question coming from the clear blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life.

    "I do not believe that much came of this conversation, except perhaps a statement that the distances to the next location of living beings may be very great and that, indeed, as far as our galaxy is concerned, we are living somewhere in the sticks, far removed from the metropolitan area of the galactic center."

    York believes that Fermi was somewhat more expansive and "followed up with a series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets, the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the likely rise and duration of high technology, and so on. He concluded on the basis of such calculations that we ought to have been visited long ago and many times over. As I recall, he went on to conclude that the reason we hadn't been visited might be that interstellar flight is impossible, or, if it is possible, always judged to be not worth the effort, or technological civilization doesn't last long enough for it to happen." York confessed to being hazy about these last remarks.

    In summary, Fermi did ask the question, and perhaps not surprisingly, issues still debated today were part of the discussion . Certainly, the line of argument that York remembers became familiar a decade later as the Drake-Greenbank Equation [6,7].

    A final point: the date of the conversation. York is clearest on the date. "The conversation was either in the summer of 1950, 1951, or 1952, very probably 1951, and took place . . . when I was visiting LASL in connection with the forthcoming Greenhouse tests - specifically, the George shot." The George test occurred on May 8, 1951, suggesting a 1950 date. Surviving correspondence from the time indicates that Fermi was an annual summer visitor during the years in question. Unfortunately, attendance and travel records for those years have been destroyed. However, we have the evidence of the cartoon Konopinski mentions. Drawn by Alan Dunn, it was published in the May 20, 1950, issue of The New Yorker. It seems quite probable that the incident of Fermi's question occurred in the summer of 1950.

    I am grateful to Hans Mark and to the three surviving participants for their accounts. These accounts, together with my letters of inquiry, are reproduced in the following pages.

    ReplyDelete
  2. And then when one considers the number of galaxies in what we know of the universe, all with their billions of stars....well...

    We are a third or fourth generation star. And our race hasn't been here long. To ask what the others might be like, would be like asking T.rex what we might be like, sorta.

    I think it was the writer Carlyle, no admirer of humanity and it's follies, who, looking up at the night sky said, "If it's inhabited, what a scope for folly, if it's not inhabited, what a waste of space."

    ReplyDelete
  3. Fascinating post Bob. i actually was going to put this post up earlier and have just read where you noticed the BBC article on the last thread.

    Think about this: maybe the best evidence of life on other planets is that there is life here. That we are in fact a colony brought here long ago, by some celestial "duck" flying into a new lake with fertilized fish eggs on both feet from a previous pond.

    Think of the possibilities. Maybe we started from space litter.

    An alien ship lands on primordial earth. A few rock samples and photos are taken during a brief drive away from the mother ship by an all terrain exploration vehicle make with union labor on planet KVHGTR77. The male and female team stop to enjoy the afternoon sun and have a sandwich and cast away the wrapper. On the wrapper is DNA and microbes from planet KY and it lands in warm but sterile water.

    ReplyDelete
  4. A Short Informative Guide To Types Of ET, Nordics Included This information should be copied, stored, and taken along on vacations, travels, etc. as birdwatchers take birdbooks. When reporting UFO's, and encounters of the second or third kind, call the National UFO Reporting Center out of Seattle. Run by Peter Davenport, who quit the lawyer business to pursue something important.

    ReplyDelete
  5. That we were seeded in some manner is an old theory, deuce. I don't believe it myself. Though it is surely not impossible.

    That physicist in the wheel chair in England who name escapes me, says we got to get out of here sometime, if we intend to make a permanent go of it. We should have some time to work on the problem, cross one's fingers and knock on wood.

    There is an anti-Fermi argument that says the distances are too great, and he didn't factor sufficient distance and time required into his equation. That doesn't mean ET isn't, just that ET hasn't shown up.

    Of course, lots of people say ET has shown up.

    There was recently a respectable gentleman at one of the Ivy League schools, who caused embarrassment to his mates when he started to take contact seriously, and spent the rest of his time investigating. Will try to think of his name and post it.

    ReplyDelete
  6. One of our best physicists Dr. Kaku believes in ET.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dr. John Mack is the guy. Uses a new methodology. Got himself in hot water. Harvard Prof Investigates ET Contactees

    ReplyDelete
  8. John Mack won a Pulitzer, has his own Institute

    ReplyDelete
  9. John Mack Book

    Not long ago Ptolemy was overthrown by Copernicus.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Paul Johnson, the English catholic historian, had some interesting speculations from a Christian perspective on the possiblility of ET. Beginning with the possiblility they might--even of necessity should--be rational beings, and that the spiritual laws(in his view) of the universe would be the same everywhere, he speculated that Christian folk might proselytize, and eventually hold synod round about, much as early Christians sailed about the Great Sea. And if they were more advanced than us, they wouldn't have necessarily heard their own Gospel, or if they had, we could share notes.

    One would hope there would not be muslims in outer space. If there were, we would in the course of events have star wars, as they would have divided all the cosmos into the lands of islam, and the rest of us.:)

    ReplyDelete
  11. The lands of Islam concept is a derivative of the lands of Rome. Both are examples of ever expanding empire. If we're going to survive as humans, we best stick to our planet, Earth.

    ReplyDelete
  12. We got to keep on the move, long term, Mat, the sun will get us in the end, if nothing else.

    The sun also goes red giant.

    ReplyDelete
  13. ..the sun will get us in the end..


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  14. Anyway, I think we first best learn to divide what we have, here on Earth.

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