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Saturday, May 26, 2007

The Great Leap Forward.


Declassified intelligence reports available here highlight five important factors that were brought to the attention of the Bush Administration when the Iraqi adventure was contemplated. They should have been considered . There should have been contingency planning and caution. Similar warnings are in effect over the consequences of the proposed immigration amnesty. Do not expect more caution this time. Would you have ignored these warnings and not bother to plan? Just in case?


• Establishing "an Iraqi democracy would be a long, difficult and probably turbulent process, with potential for backsliding into Iraq's tradition of authoritarianism."

• Unless the occupying forces prevented it, "score settling would occur throughout Iraq between those associated with Saddam's regime and those who have suffered most under it."

• Among the majority Shiite population, which Saddam had kept out of power, a political form of Islam could take root, "particularly if economic recovery were slow and foreign troops remained in the country for a long period."

• Iran would probably try to shape the post-Hussein Iraq, in a bid to position itself as a regional power.

• Al Qaeda would probably take advantage of the war to increase its terrorist activities, and the lines between it and other terrorist groups "could become blurred."


59 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. The future is an unknowable, to simply enforce the existing law is impossible, says Mr Bush, so we must "do something".

    There is a Presidental legacy to consider.

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  3. When Mr Cheney was at West Pont, speaking to men far better than he, I bet he did not dwell on his own military service, his five draft deferments or the simple fact that, as he so bluntly put it, after his confirmation hearings for the Sec of Def position under Bush 41, in 1989,

    “I had other priorities in the 60's than military service”

    Draft dodgin' scum, giving the rah-rah to real patriots.

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  4. For those that are connoisseurs of the end of the world--Peter Ward, professor of Biology and Earth Sciences at U or W and Astrobiologist for NASA--a reputable man--will discuss his vision of the end of the world based on global warming causing mass extinctions on 'Coast to Coast' tonight. He will illustrate his scenario of the ice caps melting, and then the ocians going anoxic.

    Might as well get all the points of view. 'Coast to Coast' can be found on a radio station in your area.

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  5. There was one scientist I read the other day that was against the immigration bill on global warming grounds. Mexicans will come here, get cars,drive around, use energy, pollute, make things worse.

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  6. Here is one vignette from those years as it actually occurred. A district Party conference was under way in Moscow Province. It was presided over by a new secretary of the District Party Committee, replacing one recently arrested. At the conclusion of the conference, a tribute to Comrade Stalin was called for. Of course, everyone stood up (just as everyone had leaped to his feet during the conference at every mention of his name). The small hall echoed with "stormy applause, rising to an ovation." For three minutes, four minutes, five minutes, the "stormy applause, rising to an ovation," continued. But palms were getting sore and raised arms were already aching. And the older people were panting from exhaustion. It was becoming insufferably silly even those who really adored Stalin. However, who would dare be the first to stop? The secretary of the District Party Committee could have done it. He was standing on the platform, and it was he who had just called for the ovation. But he was a newcomer. He had taken the place of a man who'd been arrested. He was afraid! After all, NKVD men were standing in the hall applauding and watching to see who quit first! And in that obscure, small hall, unknown to the Leader, the applause went on-six, seven, eight minutes! They were done for! Their goose was cooked! They couldn't stop now till they collapsed with heart attacks! At the rear of the hall, which was crowded, they could of course cheat a bit, clap less frequently, less vigorously, not so eagerly-but up there with the presidium where everyone could see them? The director of the local paper factory, an independent and strong-minded man, stood with the presidium. Aware of all the falsity and all the impossibility of the situation, he still kept on applauding! Nine minutes! Ten! In anguish he watched the secretary of the District Party Committee, but the latter dared not stop. Insanity! To the last man! With make-believe enthusiasm on their faces, looking at each other with faint hope, the district leaders were just going to go on and on applauding till they fell where they stood, till they were carried out of the hall on stretchers! And even then those who were left would not falter... . Then, after eleven minutes, the director of the paper factory assumed a businesslike expression and sat down in his seat. And, oh, a miracle took place! Where had the universal, uninhibited, indescribable enthusiasm gone? To a man, everyone else stopped dead and sat down. They had been saved! The squirrel had been smart enough to jump off his revolving wheel.

    That, however, was how they discovered who the independent people were. And that was how they went about eliminating them. That same night the factory director was arrested. They easily pasted ten years on him on the pretext of something quite different. But after he had signed Form 206, the final document of the interrogation, his interrogator reminded him:

    "Don't ever be the first to stop applauding!"

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  7. I think I saw a newsreel of that one time, Mat.

    ACLU local chapter president gets stung good

    One must add, the ACLU has done at least some good stuff.

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  8. Bob,

    I'm pretty sure you could get the rest of that mafia on tax evasion.

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  9. The late Rev. Jerry Falwell, his memory be blessed, at the JPOST. .

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  10. AlBobal:
    Mexicans consume Frijoles, and then flatulate:
    Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas.
    Much greater danger than anything the quack will come up with this evening.

    I buy refried beans in gallon cans just to do my part to avoid an inadvertant slip into another ice age.

    Wouldn't want your farm or trailer park to start looking like Sweden, although you could get into the business of renting mobiles that look like chocolate cottages, I guess.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. Ah, heck, Doug, you might as well just humor yourself once and listen to the guy. Where's the harm?quack,quack

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  13. "When Mr Cheney was at West Pont, speaking to men far better than he, I bet he did not dwell on his own military service, his five draft deferments or the simple fact that, as he so bluntly put it, after his confirmation hearings for the Sec of Def position under Bush 41, in 1989,

    “I had other priorities in the 60's than military service”

    Draft dodgin' scum, giving the rah-rah to real patriots."


    At the risk of being smothered, what's so spectacularly wrong with applying legally for draft deferments?

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  14. Nuthin, if you don't mind bein labled scum at 66, Cutler.
    OTOTH, odds are 'Rat'll be pushin up worms by then down south of Old Mexico.

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  15. Tonights tribute to "A Very Cool Hand"
    (volume)

    Dude

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  16. Doug, your Speaker of the House is in the air, using up thousands of gallons of jet fuel, working for you.

    You'd think they could have a tele- conference or something, concerned as they are about pollution.

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  17. DOUG...

    some Fangio and the W-196 Mercedes...priceless video


    Fangio

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  18. 3 Babes this year at Indy:
    Git me one of Dana Suitin up, please, I know how the reverse button works.

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  19. I'm picturing the W-196 in my head just to keep from getting overexcited while I wait.

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  20. The Venezuelan Gal sposed to be a brilliant engineer.
    She should just stay up here and avoid gittin nationalized.

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  21. Ok, Ok, I'll look at the car pictures.

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  22. Well, congratulations!
    That cooled my jets.
    Yul Brynner and Roman Polanski
    ...hmm

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  23. Thanks for that, Habu!
    Chicken Skin.
    Perfect car combo with Jack's superior cornering.
    No way Jack would have pushed that hard w/o Juan.

    Special People.
    Reminds me of Mario going end over end at Indy at 60, when most of us need the wife to find the reading glasses.

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  24. My sons Mentor (also did a stint w/"the company" and big gearhead, (ran a Porsche repair Shop in San Luis, owned a Merc) didn't know about Desmodromic Valves, so I got a few points for that.
    I had a Ducati 250 Desmo Single back in the day.
    Nice sound, but nothing like that Straight 8.

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  25. Desmos

    "As far as the desmo design goes... I've had much confirmation that Mercedes was the first to produce engines with desmo valves (at least for road vehicles). One-off examples don't really count. :) Someone said that ships had them earlier, but I'd need some confirmation of that to not say that Mercedes did it first.

    Who knows what kind of stuff ships would have? They've got all sorts of goofy configurations for power plants. vertically opposed with the crank in the middle. Others with the combustion chamber in the middle and cranks top and bottom. My bro was on a ship with a Hundai six cylinder. 2.9m stroke with a .6m bore and 2700 hp per cylinder. It's a 2 stroke turbocharged diesel that turns at 90 - 100 rpm and stands only 2 stories tall."
    ---
    The 300 Sl had desmos and an intake manifold to die for.

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  26. I promised Trish you wouldn't link that.
    Please delete it, Mat!

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  27. Doug,

    unreal , I had a Ducati also!

    but where Habu got the name..
    a thing of beauty is ajoy forever.

    Habu

    NOTHING ever compared to working with this bird.

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  28. Doug,

    Well, if you made the promise, then you should erase it.

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  29. Here's the eraser:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsQUJrJFbc

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  30. Looks like a computer simulation.
    How hard were they sposed to be to fly?

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  31. Mat,
    My Video has McQeen kicking Brynner's Candy Ass!

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  32. Jeez Doug, that soundtrack gave me the goose bumps. :(

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  33. No. The 9/11 vid. Bad wind howling.

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  34. Yeah, just rewatched, listening carefully.
    All the sirens and such are wiped out, even afterward.

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  35. Doug,

    Even after almost six years, I still choke with anger watching this.

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  36. There is nothing illegal in what Mr Cheney did. Some what corwardly, to leave the defense of his nation's interests to others, while he went to college.

    It goes to the matter of charecter.
    To putting country before self.

    How does he compare to a men like Bob Kerry or James Webb, in matters of sacrifice for country?

    Because there are two ways forward, Mr Cheney advocates for staying the course, to a victory in Iraq.

    Which would be great, but not in the cards prior to the end of his term. Instead Mr Cheney advocates breaking the US Military, instead of enlarging it substantialy enough to maintain the current effort in Iraq, after his departure.

    Avoiding the HAED decisions.

    This was in the WSJ, just the other day. Authored by a Medal of Honor awardee, I do believe.
    That other Kerry:

    Finally, Jim Webb said something during his campaign for the Senate that should be emblazoned on the desks of all 535 members of Congress:
    You do not have to occupy a country in order to fight the terrorists who are inside it.
    Upon that truth I believe it is possible to build what doesn't exist today in Washington: a bipartisan strategy to deal with the long-term threat of terrorism.

    The American people will need that consensus regardless of when, and under what circumstances, we withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq. We must not allow terrorist sanctuaries to develop any place on earth. Whether these fighters are finding refuge in Syria, Iran, Pakistan or elsewhere, we cannot afford diplomatic or political excuses to prevent us from using military force to eliminate them. "

    Mr. Kerrey, a former Democratic senator from Nebraska and member of the 9/11 Commission, is president of The New School.


    So to whose judgement of the sacrifices that the nation must make should we listen?

    Those who led from the front, who served their country through dire straits and who have sent their children to do the same, or an artful dodger, whose kids worked on his campaign staff?

    It's a matter of charecter, of walking the talk.

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  37. dRat,

    Maybe it's a matter of knowing how to walk the talk?

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  38. I'm tellin' ya, have said it before, it's hard to get into a Mormon Wedding if you are not among the elect:)

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  39. Damn I'd think it would be hot and uncomfortable wearing longjohns in the summer in most of Utah. And the longjohn police lurking everywhere:)

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  40. Upon reading your post, I think the worst display of not exhibiting character is not threatening to quit unless W quit listening to the like of Condi and his inner 12 step savior.
    Since he knew all the answers in 93, and W mouthed the rest of them in 2002.

    But then maybe the charge of Wilsonianism is just another Joe Wilson lie?

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  41. Depends on your weight and the talents of your wrestling partner, AlBobal.

    Now I'll check how well that fits the link.

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  42. I pray every day low class sluts like that b.... will be treated as they deserve to be treated.
    ...and I'd bet my life Romney hasn't bedded more women than she has men.
    ...or women.

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  43. Well, doug, it's just more of the same.
    Holding others to standards he does not meet himself.

    From 93 to 99 he and Condi spoke against nation building and using the US military as a police force.

    Which has been US policy for five years now. No offense against terrorist sanctuaries, just trying to hold on to worthless desert slums. In the effort to transform Arabic culture without crushing it first.

    Then to not admit it is a regional, not local challenge, Respect the borders of terrorist sanctuaries.

    We've been distracted from the war, by election results in foreign countries.

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  44. ...They have been primarily those who admire Wilson's major political accomplishments, a permanent admini- strative government staffed by civil servants and an activist foreign policy aiming at the global imposition of democratic government.

    Robert Nisbet is correct in The Present Age to see in Wilson's textbook on comparative government, 7he State, a blueprint for his later presidential reforms: taxing wealth; federal con- trol of banking practices; limiting the work hours of railroad employees; and bestowing on a growing body of civil servants both tenure and higher guaranteed wages. These acts, according to Nisbet, were not part of a hand-to-mouth policy, but stages in the fleshing out of a new conception of a positive national govern- ment.'
    ---
    At home and abroad,
    W is a 10 on the Wilsonian Scale.

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  45. "Then to not admit it is a regional, not local challenge, Respect the borders of terrorist sanctuaries."
    ---
    That Lebanese 4 Star (Combat Veteran) addressed that while he was still in Baghdad!

    ...but, of course, unlike LBJ, this admin did not interfere with Military decision making.

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  46. "There is nothing illegal in what Mr Cheney did. Some what corwardly, to leave the defense of his nation's interests to others, while he went to college.

    It goes to the matter of charecter.
    To putting country before self.

    How does he compare to a men like Bob Kerry or James Webb, in matters of sacrifice for country?

    Because there are two ways forward, Mr Cheney advocates for staying the course, to a victory in Iraq."


    The majority of American men VP Cheney's age weren't raring to get into the US military either, nor are the vast majority of American men today. Considering the costs, we wouldn't want them anyway.

    I personally wouldn't label them scum, at least without a bit more knowledge of their thoughts, intentions, and circumstances. Not all people are fit for military service, anyway.

    People who fled to Canada or otherwise evaded illegally on the otherhand...There's of course some gray area because some people didn't have access to something like college deferments, but "scum" in this case still seems pretty presumptuous.

    The chickenhawk crap, recycled and reworded or otherwise, does nothing but muddy waters. A good policy espoused by a coward is still better than a bad policy espoused by a lion.

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  47. ...and of course, assuming the current policy I'd estimate that 95% or so of the American population will be presumed cowards by the year 2060. At least so far as they never chose to serve a day in the military (or, looking at population trends, were too fat even to qualify).

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  48. If there is another draft, it is going to have to be lottery, no exceptions. I don't think people would stand for it any other way now.

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