“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Monday, November 06, 2006

Please Save The Elephants. Dick Morris Is Not Happy for the Republicans.


Allen: Incumbent GOPer under 50 percent — a sign of doom.

November 6, 2006 -- THE latest polls portend disaster for the Republican Party tomorrow. The House appears to be gone; the Senate is teetering on the brink.
John Zogby's polling is tracking 15 swing House districts, and he finds Democratic leads in 13. Since Dems need only 15 to take control - and will doubtless pick up several not on Zogby's list - it seems we're in for several years of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
In the Senate, only Tennessee seems to be holding for the Republicans. (There's no justice: Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the Democrat now losing to Republican Bob Corker, is the best of the crop of Democratic challengers).
Other Senate races? Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are gone for the GOP. Republican fantasies of a rebound in Montana are falling short. It's down to Missouri and Virginia: Democrats need to win both to take control. In these states, pollster Scott Rasmussen has GOP incumbents Jim Talent and George Allen below the 50 percent mark - usually a sign of doom. Rasmussen has Allen tied with Democrat Jim Webb at 49 percent and Democrat Claire McCaskill ahead of Talent 49-48.
Even with those nail-biters too close to call, 2006 will go down in history as one of the worst years for the Republicans.
Why the rout? President Bush let Iraq be the major issue of the election. He could have raised worries about North Korea and homeland security to the same level, but he insisted on focusing on Iraq, making changes in tactics and trying to sell them to a cynical America. Thus, he was left defending a failure rather than trumpeting his key successes.
Plus, the war in Iraq has divided the Republicans - the isolationist Pat Buchanans are abandoning an internationalist president.
But the GOP majority itself has to shoulder a lot of the blame for a session of total inaction on tax reform and Social Security, and just small steps on immigration and Medicare reform. With Republicans controlling Congress and the White House, voters were entitled to expect a whole lot more.
In the end, though, it was corruption that did the GOP in. In the '90s, Republican legislators were lean, ascetic and ideological - Reagan Republicans. Now they've grown self-indulgent and pecuniary.
Speaker Dennis Hastert's son left his music store in Illinois to move to Washington to become the lobbyist for Google. Hastert himself used his position to fund a highway project that had a lot to do with a big profit on a land deal nearby. Then-Majority Leader Tom Delay put his wife was on his PAC's payroll; she made $300,000. Voters may expect this kind of corruption from Democrats (Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid has four lobbyist sons) but not from Republicans.
First the Republicans lost their virtue; now they'll lose their majority, at least in the House. What's ahead for the next two years? Not new legislation so much as investigations, subpoenas, hearings etc. Washington will be as effectively paralyzed as it was during President Clinton's impeachment trial. And, let us remember that it was in that incubator that Osama bin Laden was able to plan the 9/11 attacks.
We needed a president who could act firmly back then, and we'll need one in the next two years. But we're not going to have one. President Bush will be dodging document requests, defending his administration's integrity and battling each day's sensational headlines supposedly uncovering scandal after scandal.
The Democrats will use their majorities to conduct a two-year campaign for the presidency. Most likely, it will work.


  1. Mr Ortega WINS!!

    Another stellar success for Mr Bush, Ms Rice and the USA!

    Turning back the hands of time to those Jimmy Carter years. Oh the Compassion of our President's State Department.

    All hail US Foreign Policy!

    Chalk this one up for Hugo, fellows.

  2. Followed closely by

    Simultaneous Mexico City Explosions Hit Political Headquarters, Electoral Tribunal, Bank

    Check the AP Wire

    There's gonna be a Revolution, in our number 1 or 2 foreign oil supplier.

    Hugo'd ready, Danny boy is ready, the tinder in Mexico is ready.

    Open borders for the US means we are not, ready. Blind sided again.

    There are none so blind as those that will not see.

  3. For those that care to remember, I warned theat the "Long War" would fail. That the US Public would reject it as a strategy. Now all those chicken hawks are coming home to roost.

    We're so sorry uncle Bush
    We're so sorry if we caused you any pain

    We're so sorry uncle Bush
    But theres no one left at home
    And I believe it's gonna rain
    We're so sorry but you havent heard a bloody thing we've said
    Were so sorry uncle Bush
    But if anything should happen you be sure to give a ring

    We're so sorry mister maliki
    But you havent done a bloody thing all year
    Were so sorry mister maliki
    But the kettles on the boil and we're so easily called away

    Hand across the water
    Heads across the sky
    Hand across the water
    Heads across the sky
    Admiral Halsey notified me
    He had to have a berth or he couldnt get to sea
    I had another look and I had a cup of tea and a bite of bitter pie

    Hand across the water
    Heads buried in the sand
    Hand across the water
    Heads buried in the sand

    Live a little be a gypsy, get around
    Don't get buried in the ground

    Live a little, get around
    Live a little, be a gypsy, get around
    Don't get buried in the ground

  4. Today's the last day, habu.

    Are those B-2s warmed up and on their way?

    The FA-18s loaded for bear?

    The M1A2s headed east?

    Yeah, that's what I thought.
    Chivas, straight up, please.

    Heads buried in the sand.

  5. I have voted. I happen to live in an area where my vote rarely counts, My feelings are that if the Democrats do not pick up the House, they may as well give up. Everything is going their way. The Republican leadership, to be kind, has been uninspiring. The Republicans do best when they stand for something, and can express that stand , and stand by it. Rick Santorum meets the criteria, except he could not convey that to people and will lose.

    Reagan could do all three. The Republicans, in exchange for choosing George Bush for President may have unwittingly sealed their fate as a national party. They should have insisted upon secure borders and took a firm stand against illegal immigration. The illegals here will be granted a preferred status by the Democrats. When that happens, the American West will be lost to the Democrats. The only way that would change is if the Republicans chased the Democrats to the bottom in public give-aways.

    The Republicans that accepted everything a non-conservative Republican President gave them have no one but themselves to blame. Where the conservatives go from here will be more determined by chance and fate. The balloting and registration of amnestitized illegals, permitted by anesthetized politicians of both parties, will have have hog tied them and shut them out of a ntional majority.

  6. Gramma Pelosi says if the Dems win, the speaker's gavel will "be in the hands of the children". At least she's truthful.

  7. That there are more illegal alliens in the US than there are Military Veterans, now that's telling a tale that few wish to hear.

  8. DR,

    Darn nice rendition of the ole Beatles toon.

    I saw an old Spad fly over. I think the pilot had a hand grenade of maybe it was just a rock.
    Then I thought look there it is !!! but alas it was a Rogallo winged ultralight leading a flock of endangered cranes to their winter nesting....with bad eyes for just a minute it looked like a fearsome B-2.
    No DR, the B-1's and 2's will remain on the ground, cobwebs covering their bombbays and cockpits.
    I wonder what the world will look like at the end of this decade just 3+ years away?
    Barkeep, Chivas for the man, neat.
    Good call compadre.

  9. Is Pelosi and co really going to back some form of illegal amnesty (= open borders)?

    Just as a example what that may mean short term : the rate of illegal immigration to Spain tripled immediately after they amnestied their illegals. The side bonus of the Spanish mistake was that much of the rest of Europes leaders has taken fright (which is characteristic), but there have been high level calls for a EU ban on illegal amnesties (less characteristic but a good, good sign). The thing is Spain is <10% of Europe. One shudders to think what a Europe-wide amnesty would have been like, but I understand this is exactly what a democratic house may do for the USA.

  10. Well, Mr Bush could veto an amnesty bill, oh wait, he favors open borders and amnesty.

    Damn, to much Compassion, to little conservative.

    On a side note, Jr applied to become a Maricopa County sheriff deputy, TSA security force and the Border Patrol.

    The Sheriff got back to him in four days, tests scheduled etc.
    The TSA took two weeks to set up the testing schedule.
    The Border Patrol, have not responded in two months, other to say the recieved the application.

    Makes one wonder about the seriousness of the Federal effort to control the frontier.

  11. Daniel Ortega's back
    Seems now, with hindsight, I wasted my time in 1983 & 84.


  12. DR,
    Don't feel like the Lone Ranger on that lost time in '83-84. Hell if Putin fixes the election and the Soviets are back I wasted an entire decade.
    ..and I did it for the children too.

  13. In the previous thread there's a picture of Nixon looking at Cho En-lai whose face down in his bowl.

    What you don't see is those pursed lips of "Tricky Dick" are just about to spit a snow pea into Chou's ear. It's a killer.

  14. One shudders to think what a Europe-wide amnesty would have been like, but I understand this is exactly what a democratic house may do for the USA.

    And Bush would sign it in a heartbeat, as long as he gets to call it a guest worker program.

  15. And Bush would sign it in a heartbeat, as long as he gets to call it a guest worker program.

    I read that around the net too. Anyone think a Democrat house is cynical enough to keep the Iraq situation going just enough to tip the next vote for Pres in two years?

  16. All in all, a good decade's work for you guys. Good on Ya.

    Absolutely! Besides, revanchist Russia is less than half of the USSR, or about a third of the old Warsaw pact.

  17. peacekeeper
    No doubt at all.
    They'll have Hearings and Reports, complain and moan, and vote for the funding the President needs to stay the course. By ever decreasing margins.

    They'll wrap the GOP up in the Iraqi front of the War, which will become ever less popular.

    Then, some nonIraqi will strike the US. Someone trained in Warizistan or Somolia, proving the Dems point that Iraq is/ was a sideshow in the effort against the facsist Mohammedan terrorists.

  18. Why can’t the West win wars?

    “Prime Minister Tony Blair said Monday he opposed the death penalty for former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.”


    What is the nature of war?

  19. re: Dick Morris

    Morris, like most fund managers, is wrong far more often than he is right.

    He does have meticulously clean feet, however. :-O

  20. I was half tempted to throw up another post on this, but let's report news below the fold and ride with all things election oriented. As you all well know by now, ISLAM IS THE PROBLEM :

    'Gas Limos' terrorist faces sentencing

    By Matthew Moore and PA
    Last Updated: 2:23pm GMT 06/11/2006

    A British Muslim plotted to cause "massive explosions" in Britain and the United States designed to kill thousands of people, a court heard today.

    Dhiren Barot was arrested in August 2004 in London

    Dhiren Barot, a 34-year-old convert from north London, led a conspiracy to commit mass murder and was intent on causing, in his own words, "another black day for the enemies of Islam".

    His plots included using radioactive dirty bombs, a petrol tanker, and a co-ordinated bomb attack using limosines packed with gas cylinders.

    He also planned to flood London's Underground network by blowing up a Tube train under the Thames, predicting that if he could "rupture the river itself", this "would cause pandemonium, what with the explosions, flooding, drowning etc that would occur".

    Addressing a two-day sentencing hearing at London's Woolwich Crown Court today, Edmund Lawson QC, for the Crown, said that Barot was a member or close associate of al-Qa'eda, and hoped to emulate the Madrid bombings. The Telegraph

  21. ... proving the Dems point that Iraq is/ was a sideshow in the effort against the facsist Mohammedan terrorists.

    If that was the dems point I'm at least half way agreed (in that it was a sideshow, but is now no longer), but I submit they would argue that Iraq somehow caused the non-Iraqi dirtbags to attack.

  22. Moonbattery decries “Global Warming Cultists Rewrite Climate History and the Laws of Physics.”

    Hasn’t he gotten the message: it’s all a matter of perspective; facts are meaningless; damn the numbers.


  23. Gentleman, make your call on tomorrow's results. The winner will get the first: "Order of the Elephant", a bragging rights Post, and a $100 American Express Gift Certificate to a restaurant of your choice.

  24. Yep, they would. Many of the public would agree. Especially as more time passes from '01.

    The blame will fall to Mr Bush, he had the Patriot Act, he had the funding, he had all he asked for, yet still could not save US.

    Can hear it already.
    If the Terrorist are from the Sudan, Darfur trained, the Dems will say "Told you so!"

    Plain as day. Then they'll play Mr Bush's '02 State of Union speach in their commmercials. GOP failure, which will have been highlighted by two years of Congressional Hearings. Not only on Iraq, but Somolia, Warizistan, Lebanon, Darfur, Nigeria and of course Iran.

    They'll feint to the "right" knowing that Mr Bush cannot change course and expand the conflict.

    He's put the GOP 'tween a rock and a hard place.

  25. Dems win 18 House seats, 4 in the Senate

  26. The gift certificate is good worldwide. If you nail it on the money the certificate will be $250. The $100 will be awarded to the closest. Post your predictions on this post. Last prediction to be in at 1300 EST, US.
    1 PM EST to you civilians. In the event of a tie, duplicate certificates will be awarded.

  27. Lieberman wins, but votes for Mr Reid regardless of the Dems dumping on him.

  28. That is 1300 EST on Tuesday for final estimate. You can revise anytime up to that time, 1300 EST,US Tuesday.

  29. "Prime Minister Tony Blair said Monday he opposed the death penalty for former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein."

    Maybe he feels that Saddam (and we) should trust in the death of Christ to atone for Saddam's sins rather than Saddam's own death.

  30. teresita,

    re: atonement

    Blair is European.

  31. Joining the atonement bandwagon is the NYT.

    New York Times calls for deferring Saddam's execution

    “The newspaper, which is opposed to the death penalty, said Iraq not only needed to hold Saddam fully accountable for his atrocities but also to heal and educate the nation he ‘ruthlessly divided.’"


    Hmmm…Those hundreds of thousands of Iraqis murdered by Hussein’s regime are obviously beyond healing and education.

  32. This just in: “Perle: Vanity Fair lied to me.” H/T Drudge

    The greater question: Did Mr. Perle lie to Vanity Fair?

    Good try, Richard, but no cigar. I am glad to see that law degree wasn’t a complete waste of time and money.

  33. Mr Tariq al-Hashimi the Sunni VP of Iraqq will hold Saddam's life in his pen.

    Will he sign the Death Warrant or will he find that Mr Talibani, Mr Blair, the NYTimes and the Pope have the stronger moral arguments?

    He will be the man with Saddam's fate in his hands. Who'd have ever thought it come to that, when they wrote the Iraqi Constitution.

    To bad so many of the civilian billets went unfilled by US, we could have had more effect on their Government, if only we had really cared enough to fill those advisory slots.

  34. You just have to see it from Mr Pearle's perspective, allen.

    His statements were accurate and true, but VF editors misled him about the timing of publication.

    That's makes the truth relative, it'd make his quotes true on 7 Nov, but they are misleading misleading on the 5th.

    Mr Pearles' lament
    "Can't you see
    Can't you see
    What the Editors are doin to me?"

  35. Two more candidates for redemptive atonement and one not:

    Haggard bares his soul in note to congregation

    (But, presumably, not his butt)

    Jail for woman who kept sister-in-law as slave

    (The supplicant seems to have had an aversion to housework)

    Female Suicide Bomber Attacks Israeli Troops in Gaza

    (Who’s going to clean up this mess?)

  36. DR,

    re: "Can't you see
    Can't you see
    What the Editors are doin to me?"

    Good on ya!

    I had in mind,

    "Gimme three steps,
    Gimme three steps, Mister
    Please, try to help a boor?"

  37. “We are at this pass because George W. Bush let us down.”

    “History will call George W. Bush many things but "conservative" won't be one of them.”

    “President Bush, in both campaigns, promised a conservative agenda but delivered something else.”

    “There's a conservative agenda we can re-unify around. We need a leader to rally around and it's up to us to test the applicants. Let no faux-conservatives apply.”

    “These next two years should be a time of a conservative renaissance.”

    The Coming Conservative Renaissance

    Is Jeb Babbin a Liberal?

  38. Hey, habu!< they got a label for us, who'd have guessed?

    the Endgame Conservatives. These are people who put the vast majority of their energy into thinking about putting the Islamist genie back in the bottle and who don't care who rules nations such as Iraq. They want to fight the war with all the speed and violence we can muster. Endgame Cons condemn the neo-Wilsonians for doing what Bush does, tolerating the intolerable, accepting the unacceptable and thus letting the enemy control the pace and direction of the war.

    Obviously we are not "real Conservatives" not enough compassion for Mr Atta's mother.

  39. Mr Bush goes to Florida to support the candidate for Jeb's job as Gov.

    Mr Charlie Crist, the candidate, couldn't make it to the rally, he's to busy, elsewhere.

  40. What's wrong with this picture: It's the Monday before an election which supposedly will sweep the Republicans from power and the Dow is almost 12,100?

    Does Mr. Market know something unknown to the EB?

  41. Yeah, that even if the Dems gain a 15 seat majority in the House, it'll make no difference in governess.

    The "Tax cuts" are secure until 2010, when they expire.
    They know Mr Bush will veto any increases, if he has the cajones Bill Clinton did.

    They know that spending, already out of control, will continue apace.

  42. Does Mr. Market know something unknown to the EB?

    Yes, markets like divided government. Like in 1994-2001.

  43. " President Bush let Iraq be the major issue of the election. He could have raised worries about North Korea and homeland security to the same level, but he insisted on focusing on Iraq, making changes in tactics and trying to sell them to a cynical America. Thus, he was left defending a failure rather than trumpeting his key successes."
    Before I heard half of this genius soundbyte for the first time last month, my head screamed:
    "Politically Tone DEAF, maybe?"
    ...and likewise the first thought next was why not no attacks, and etc, but NO!

    "The World is a Better Place Without Saddam Hussein!"

    Instantly transported back in time by the Bush/Rove we was right Time Machine.
    (Maybe he thought what he says in Montana will never be heard in New Jersey???)
    JEEZE !
    Bring back 41 for 2 more years.

  44. 'Rat 2:31 PM,
    Maybe he and Mr. Ketchup can get booked together on Saturday Night Live.

  45. I think Germany needs to go on a national suicide watch. What is the matter with these people?

    They have a synopsis of the articles about the skulls on DW Numb Skulls

    The Scandal and Inquiry

    Pressure Grows on Berlin After New Afghan Skull Photos Appear

    A German newspaper on Saturday published more photographs showing soldiers posing with human skulls and bones in Afghanistan as pressure mounted on the government to find the culprits. (28.10.2006)

    More Photos Surface in Widening German Skull Scandal

    German defense ministry officials Friday suspended two soldiers for their alleged part in the desecration of skulls in Afghanistan. The scandal meanwhile widened as a tabloid said it would publish more photos Saturday. (27.10.2006)

    Afghan Government "Deeply Saddened" by Soldier Scandal

    Kabul has condemned photos published of German soldiers posing with a skull as being "against Islamic values." The Afghan trade minister said he fears effects similar to those in the wake of the Mohammed cartoons. (26.10.2006)

    Six Germans Questioned in Skull Scandal

    German politicians and military officials have called for better cultural training for soldiers after photos of an alleged desecration of a skull in Afghanistan shocked the nation. (26.10.2006)

    Germany Outraged by Afghan Skull Photos, Orders Probe

    Two soldiers were brought in for questioning after a newspaper published photographs of German troops posing with a human skull while on a tour of duty in Afghanistan. Germany now fears reprisals against its troops. (25.10.2006)

    Ramifications for the German Army

    Germany Starts Rethinking its Foreign Deployments
    German soldiers are engaged in eleven foreign missions. But after a scandal with soldiers in Afghanistan and fears that the military is overstretched, some want a reduction in the numbers of troops being sent abroad. (31.10.2006)

    Germany Reconsiders Sending Troops on Foreign Missions

    Senior politicians on Sunday said Germany should rethink its role in foreign peacekeeping missions as the scandal over soldiers playing with skulls in Afghanistan battered the army's image. (29.10.2006)

    Skull Scandal Raises Questions About Army Training Methods

    As the scandal over photographs of German soldiers desecrating a human skull in Afghanistan widens, experts in Germany are calling for a review of the army's training methods. (27.10.2006)

    Skull Photos Unfortunate But No Real Surprise

    DW readers this week shared their throughts on the images showing German soldiers posing with human skulls in Afghanistan. Most said they weren't surprised by the scandal. (31.10.2006)

    Press Review: The Fear of Consequences

    The German and European press were united in the condemnation of the Bundeswehr skull scandal and many feared reprisals on German troops in Afghanistan while others searched for an explanation for the soldiers' behavior. (26.10.2006)
    Opinion: The Abhorrent Exception to the Rule
    German officials have reacted well to the alleged desecration of a skull by German soldiers, says DW's Peter Philipp. He hopes Afghan authorities will follow suit. (26.10.2006)

  46. Washington Prowler
    Cashing In Regardless
    By The Prowler
    Published 11/6/2006 12:09:37 AM
    Look for Harold Ford, Jr. to announce in the coming weeks after his defeat in the Tennessee Senate race that he's joining an investment bank in New York.

    Rumor on Wall Street is that in spite of his Senate candidacy of more than a year, Ford has found the time to also hunt of a high-paying job on Wall Street.

    Early in the campaign, Ford was getting low marks for his attention to the campaign, leading some Democrats in the state party to complain about his lack of interest in mounting a formidable campaign. Ford had been an early favorite to win the nomination, and was considered a serious piece in the national party's attempt to retake the Senate.

    Now, the national party is pulling its money from the Tennessee race and pouring it into Rhode Island, where they have seen their race against pseudo-GOPer Lincoln Chafee cratering in the polls over the past 96 hours.
    MEANWHILE IN MONTANA, every leftwing outfit from the DNC to the party's Senate campaign committee to MoveOn is begging for more funds from supporters, claiming they need to prop up their Senate candidate, Jon Tester.

  47. Proof that Mr. Market likes divided government, as evidenced (Dare I use evidence?) by the Dow.




  48. Deuce,

    re: Kabul has condemned photos published of German soldiers posing with a skull as being "against Islamic values."

    Well of course it was against Isalmic values! As EVERYONE knows, to fall within acceptability, the skull must be a freshly severed one taken from an infidel.

  49. Self Immolation fashionable in Afghanistan

    Especially among the liberated women.

    There's plenty of opportunity in afghanistan if you are an enterprisin' combustion prospector.

  50. Notice on Cut-off , that is tomorrow Tuesday 1300 EST. Not Today!!! Get your selections in.

  51. I repeat the contest. It is an American express gift certificate . The gift certificate is good worldwide. If you nail it on the money the certificate will be $250. If not the person closest will win $100 certificate. A tie, will result in two $100 certificates, one to each winner. If two people guess the actual, you will ruin my day, but there will then be two, $250 awards. Post your predictions on this post. Last prediction to be in at 1300 EST, US. on Election day Tuesday.
    1 PM EST to you civilians.Repeat, in the event of a tie, duplicate certificates will be awarded.

  52. DR,
    Endgamers. Are we an endangered species?

  53. 2164th,

    "It's the economy, stupid."

    Both the Senate and Congress stay Red. That's my prediction.

  54. Rufus,
    Those poll numbers do look better, and if we can get the turnout I think we can get and ARE in fact going to get then I think we'll be ok.

    I may have been you but someone pointed our a Michael Barone article of mid-term elections. It's usually always the situation that the party in power losses a few seats so I don't think were headed to the home of the Creature from the Black Lagoon lives.
    But I think our base realizes the gravity of the situation so they'll come.
    Mid Term Barone Article

  55. Post your numbers mat, you may be right. you have till 1300 MaƱana. Remember to post on this post so we do not lose you.

  56. 2164th,

    GOP keeps Senate with 53 in favor.
    GOP keeps House with 218 in favor.

  57. Mat,
    Agreed, GOP holds em both as I've been saying for a week.
    Has to be more than 50 -1 or McConnell says it's back to
    "Power Sharing."
    Always a good reason for this GOP Senate to compromise for the good of the dems.
    Polls once again will attribute "upset" to a rapid shift, when in fact their earlier polls simply picked more dems to polls than warrented by reality.

    Rove expects more independents to stay home than last time, who would be voters most likely to abandon ship, far as I can tell.

  58. As normal in these things, I stay the odd man out. Standing by my 11:48 AM, November 06, 2006 prediction.

  59. In Democrat Stronghold, GOP shows up in greater percent of turnout than Dems.
    Independents a distant third:
    Early voting & absentee figures for Broward, Palm Beach & Dade counties

    That includes 12.7 percent of the total registered Democrats in the county;

    13.4 percent of the registered Republicans in Broward; and

    7.7 percent of the third-party voters that had cast ballots by Monday.

    Drudge link.

  60. doug, Broward, Palm Beach & Dade counties split almost 50/50 'tween Bush & Gore, the Buchanan misvotes, due to the voter books' layout, would have swung the National Election, and there were not that many of the mistakes, statisticly or in actual numbers, around 2,000 or so.

    When did, doug, the 50/50 Broward, Palm Beach & Dade counties become Dem strongholds?