“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Costa Rica Weighs in on Colts vs Bears. What say you?
By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
NFL Football betting odds at WagerWeb Sportsbook
Well, it all comes down to this. We have the matchup of the best offense in the league (Indianapolis) against what I think is the second-best defense in the league (Chicago). If you've been following my picks for the year, you'll know that I have a pretty good regular-season record (over 53% picking every game, about 58% on games I actually bet), but the playoffs have just been bad times for me overall. Nonetheless, if you asked me at the beginning of the year if I'd take these results, then I would absolutely have done it.
The Super Bowl is the culmination of it all, and I have some definite opinions about what I think is going to happen. To me, this game isn't going to be won or lost in the Colts' offense vs Bears' defense matchup. It's going to depend on the opposite, how the Bears offense does against the Colts defense. The Colts are going to score points, there's no doubt about it. They've done it against everyone, even the team I thought had the best defense, Baltimore. Granted, the Colts didn't get in the end zone in that game, but they scored enough to win it. The reason they won that one was because of their defense, though, not their offense, and I think that's the side of the ball that needs to be focused on when you look at this game.
The Colts scored 15 points against the Ravens, and I think they can probably put up a little more than that against the Bears, so I'll give them 21 points. The game is going to hinge on if the Bears can muster enough offense to score 21+ points against a defense that's just been fantastic the last few weeks. My guess is no, but when it comes to picking the point-spread, it doesn't matter if the Bears score over 21 or not. The spread for this game right now is Indy -7 on WagerWeb.com, which means the Colts are favored by a touchdown.
If you look at that Colts-Ravens game, the final score was 15-6, so you can tell the Ravens had a very hard time scoring. I think the Chicago offense is a little bit better than the Baltimore squad, so the Bears should definitely put up more than 6 points. The Bears have a better running game and better receivers than the Ravens, so the big question is if quarterback Rex Grossman can get it done. So far he hasn't hurt them in the playoffs, but he hasn't faced a defense that's playing as well as the Colts have the last three games. True, the Patriots scored 34 points in the AFC title game, but they had two special-teams TDs. The Bears should be able to run the ball fairly well, so if they can get some decent production out of Grossman they have a shot at scoring enough to cover the spread.
If you've read my articles, you know that I'm an advocate of buying points when the spread is at -3 or -7. The final spread of the game usually hits one of these two numbers about 35% of the time, so it's important to use buying points to your advantage. For this game, no matter which side you like, you should buy the points or search around to try to find the number you want. If you like the Colts, you should try to get to -6.5, which means if Indy wins by 7, then you win. If you like the Bears, then you should try to find a +7.5. Right now I'm seeing both -6.5 and -7 for Indy, which means you probably won't be able to find a +7.5 for Chicago. To get to the +7.5 what you would want to do is find a place that has +7, then buy up to the +7.5 to get there. You'll have to pay extra to do it, usually 20 to 25 cents on the dollar (meaning you have to bet $130 or 135 to win $100, instead of the usual $110), but the math says it's the correct move. That way if Indy wins by 7, you win instead of push.
Disclaimer: The Elephant Bar and the contributors have no interest in on-line sports betting, and we do not care what you do with your money. This post is for information on current events.