“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

64.5 Million Housing Units Empty in China

ANYBODY HOME?: An apartment complex in Pudong District, Shanghai, was ready for buyers in April 2010. It's estimated that tens of millions of apartments in China are now empty as buyers hold them as investment rather than homes (CHEN FEI)

Vacant But Not for Sale
Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai, said the huge number of empty apartments foreshadows a bubble burst

BY LIU YUNYUN Beijing Review

Housing market speculation in previous years has resulted in an "empty apartment" phenomenon—houses and apartments are purchased as investments but left unoccupied. Various Chinese media outlets reported that about 64.5 million urban electricity meters read zero in the first six months of this year in empty apartments across the country. Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai, said the huge number of empty apartments foreshadows a bubble burst in an article recently published on Century Weekly.

Edited excerpts follow:
Property bubbles can be divided into two kinds—quantity bubbles (too much supply) and price bubbles (too expensive). China, however, is facing a combination of the two.

The Chinese property bubble is different from that of other countries since it has a huge supply while prices also run high.

China's urban housing stock is mainly composed of housing built by enterprises or government organizations for their employees, and some 60 million private housing units built over the past 10 years. Property developers are now building about 20 million private apartments, and local government-owned land reserves may be enough for another 20 million to 30 million.

Even if the stock of empty apartments is less than 64.5 million, the number would still be equivalent to 20 percent of the total urban housing supply, which is higher than Taiwan's vacancy rate at the peak of its bubble at the end of the 1980s. Moreover, as credit policies are loosened, the stock could rise to more than 30 percent.

In mature markets, the property price is usually twice that of a person's monthly income. In many Chinese cities, the per-square-meter property price is five to 10 times the average monthly income for local residents—a clear indicator that bubbles are forming.

A price bubble can damage the economy in three ways. First, it usually leads to a banking crisis. As the market trades at higher and higher prices, buyers borrow more against the same property. Banks that maintain the same lending cushion with, say, a 30-percent down-payment rule, suffer losses when prices fall below that level. A banking system in crisis cannot function properly, and the economy suffers collateral damage due to this dysfunctional banking.

Second, the wealth effect—increased spending due to an increase in perceived wealth—leads to excessive consumption during a bubble. The backlash weakens an economy for several years.

And third, bubble-induced demand distorts supply. When inflated industries plummet after a bubble burst, it takes time for other industries to take their place.

Unique in China

I think the vacancy rate for the country's private and commercial housing stock is between 25-30 percent, nearly double that of a normal market. But price hikes along with a high vacancy rate are inexplicable.

China's phenomenon is unique for at least four reasons.

A sustained negative real interest rate has led to a falling demand for money and a rising appetite for speculation. Inflation fears and greed are working together to form unprecedented speculative demand for property.

Second, a massive amount of "gray" income is seeking a safe haven. This "gray" income could be around 10 percent of GDP. Due to rising inflation and a depreciating dollar, a currency that used to be a traditional safe haven, the booming property market has become the place of choice to hoard money.

Third, few people in China have experienced a property bubble. The property crash in the 1990s only touched a small segment of society, mainly foreigners and state-owned enterprises. Geographically, it was restricted to the country's developed regions including Hainan, Guangdong and Shanghai. Most people don't have a firm understanding of what a property crash is, and this ignorance has led to a lack of fear for runaway speculation.

Fourth, speculators are confident that the government won't let property prices drop. They surmise that local governments rely on property deals for revenue and do all they can to prop up prices. But their faith in the government is misplaced. The government can delay, but not deter, a bubble burst. Nevertheless, faith in the government is stronger than fears, and speculative demand will continue to grow as long as credit is available.

Government dilemma

Right now, tight credit is holding the market back, and supply is piling up. The government's tightening measures are squeezing out buyers looking for second and third homes, and transaction volumes across the country have collapsed.

When the policy is relaxed—as most expect—speculation will probably revive and lead to a doubling in the total value of speculative inventory.

In some cities, banks are loosening credit a bit. Why? Because local governments have a lot of debt—commonly five times more debt than revenue—and could find themselves in financial trouble without a decent level of property transactions.

Local governments have depended on real estate transactions for revenue and could default if the market falls too far. Thus, the Central Government may loosen its policies to help the local governments. Such a change of attitude would ease short-term government difficulties but double the trouble down the road before the property bubble bursts.

Market solutions

At this point, an interest rate hike would be the best option. Raising interest rates would cool speculative demand gradually, and at the same time avoid market disruptions. A delay in raising interest rates would only cause a surge for the stock of empty apartments.

In the long run, local governments must find ways to increase sources of non-property revenues or simply limit expenditures. The investment-led growth strategy adopted by all local governments will inevitably lead to maximized revenues from land sales, but unless limits are put on this strategy, the property market cannot function normally.

Property taxes could be a new and better source of revenue. In many countries, property taxes constitute a big proportion of local governments' revenue and finance public services. China should adopt the same model, coupled with cuts in government expenditures.

What happened to the U.S. economy now serves as a good lesson for Chinese decision makers. Policymakers should act now to alleviate the housing problem, since a crash in the real estate industry could bring down the whole economy. In my opinion, it is very likely the Chinese property market would collapse much like the United States did in 2008.


  1. 2010 Census results say there's 130 million housing units in America. One in nine of these are vacant due to fallout from our real-estate bubble.

    But imagine a place where they built half-again as many housing units as exist in the entire United States, but no one can afford to actually live in them, and local governments are actually dead-set against building low-income housing because their budgets are supplied by tax receipts from the owners of these expensive but empty houses and apartments.

    China just managed to pass Japan this week in GDP to become the world's second biggest economy. But a big chunk of that activity is building houses that no one lives in.

    All it will take is an airstrike on Iran to jack up oil prices to $200 and pop that bubble.

  2. Sorry T, missed your post. Mea culpa.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

  7. Since it has begun as just another regular day,

    Israel 13, Others 0

  8. I don't have a clue what might happen in China. As I've said before, Asian economics are inscrutable.

    A couple of things did occur to me pretty rapidly, though. Most of these properties have had high down payments applied. The Chinese are, by nature, "Savers," and "gamblers." A strange combination, but true.

    And, third, we've never seen a country with $2.5 Trillion in the bank. Especially, a "Totalitarian" nation with $2.5 Trillion in the bank.

    I'm not saying the bubble won't bust, because ALL bubbles bust. I'm just saying it's kind of hard to predict the consequences.

  9. United States states Israel is a Jim Crow culture.
    US 1
    Israel 0

    US announces Israel is in violation of the Geneva Accords, in 1967. Situation unchanged, since.
    US 43
    Israel 0

    Eastern Euopeons continue to unite in northern Arabia, on the shores of the Eastern Med, under the banner of the Pirates of the Mediterranean.

    The Philistines of the 21st century.

  10. They came from the sea, from Europe.

  11. History repeats itself.

    The looters have arrived from Europe, now they're on the beach, near Jerusalem.

    That long time capital of Palestine.

  12. TEHRAN, Iran —An Iranian F4 fighter jet crashed in the country's south on Tuesday, near a nuclear power plant that is expected to be launched next month, a semi-official Iranian news agency reported.

    Local government official Gholam Reza Keshtkar said the Iranian airforce plane crashed about 4 miles (6 kilometers) north of the city of Bushehr.

  13. Arabs Created Israel, thanks!

    The Jewish exodus from Arab and Muslim lands refers to the 20th century mass departure of Jews, primarily of Sephardi and Mizrahi background, from Arab and Islamic countries. The migration started in the late 19th century and peaked following the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Between 800,000-1,000,000 Jews were expelled or left their homes in Arab countries due to persecution and anti-Semitism.

  14. DR,

    Actually, the long time capital of Syria Palaestina was Aelia Capitolina. I'm surprised that a Wiki scholar didn't catch that.

    (Oh, the Duke site didn't have that...Gosh, that's too bad)

    Kind of like not knowing an anus from a hole in the ground, fella, ...uh, Anon...

    In legal victories, it remains

    Israel 13, History Revisionists 0

    And if you all get your Congressional hearing, which I certainly hope is the case, you are going to walk away with you communal head in your hand.

    Personally, it would almost be worth seeing McCain re-elected to get to see him tear into some moron for calling his father a liar, traitor, murderer...You guys are truly the scum at the bottom of the pig trough.

  15. Jerusalem is the Capital of Israel, so says Congress, it's the law of the land...

    The Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995[1] is a public law of the United States passed by the 104th Congress on October 23, 1995. It was passed for the purposes of initiating and funding the relocation of the United States Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, no later than May 31, 1999, and attempted to withhold 50 percent of the funds appropriated to the State Department specifically for ‘‘Acquisition and Maintenance of Buildings Abroad’’ as allocated in fiscal year 1999 until the United States Embassy in Jerusalem had officially opened.[2] The act also called for Jerusalem to remain an undivided city and for it to be recognized as the capital of the State of Israel. Israel's declared capital is Jerusalem, but this is not internationally recognized, pending final status talks in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United States has withheld recognition of the city as Israel's capital. The proposed law was adopted by the Senate (93-5),[3] and the House (374-37).[4]
    Since passage, the law has never been implemented, because of opposition from Presidents Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, who view it as a Congressional infringement on the Executive Branch’s constitutional authority over foreign policy; they have consistently claimed the presidential waiver on national security interests.

  16. From Last year...

    Obama pledges $300 million of US aid to Hamas-controlled Gaza
    March 1st, 2009 10:34 pm

    With millions of Americans struggling to make ends meet, President Barack Obama is promising $300 million in aid to Gaza.

    The aid is part of a larger $900 million that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is promising Palestinians

    And why do we fund our enemies?

  17. this from last year...

    About Those Billions
    Over the years, the U.S. has unloaded massive amounts of aid to Pakistan, including $7.5 billion more earlier this month. But the money doesn't always wind up where it's supposed to.
    It was with the best of intentions that the U.S. funneled nearly $5.3 billion to Pakistan during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. After all, that money helped strike down a Cold War adversary. But there were unintended consequences too—namely, the Taliban. Since 9/11, the U.S. has turned on the spigot again, sending more than $15 billion in assistance to Pakistan. President Barack Obama just approved another $7.5 billion this month, which triples aid while committing to another five years of funding. It also bolsters development efforts, which, according to bill coauthor Sen. John Kerry, will "build a relationship with the people [of Pakistan] to show that what we want is a relationship that meets their interests and needs."

    One must ask...

    Why should we throw money at a nation that funds the Taliban?

    Instead of spending billions on a nuke program, maybe they should have invested in building codes for their people?

    Oh Pakistan...

    Allah is punishing you....

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  19. Here is a website that list modern arab inventions...

    The only invention I could see is a patent for a new steamer tray for parties...


    got to LOVE it...

  20. I've been mulling something. Elections coming up, and people in a foul mood, not helped by high gasoline prices.

    Government announces $60 Billion sale of F-15's, and helicopters to Saudi Arabia.

    Saw rumor, yesterday, that IEA Report will show a sudden, and completely "unexpected" jump in OPEC oil production of about a Million Barrels/Day. Also, a little counter-intuitively, we find that Iran has, in the last few weeks, dumped about 20 Million (or more) barrels of "floating storage" onto the market.

    Quite a coincidence? Could it be that a "strike on Iran" is OFF the table?

  21. Rufus: I'm not saying the bubble won't bust, because ALL bubbles bust. I'm just saying it's kind of hard to predict the consequences.

    The consequences are obvious. You will have a billion people living in hovels, looking at a billion housing units sitting empty, and you'll have a second revolution there. And the investors who are using those housing units as a store of value will be shit out of luck.

  22. Maybe, T, but if it was a Company I'd have a hard time "shorting" it.

    Strong positive "cash flow," $2.5 Trillion in the bank, No debt, Slave labor, Monopoly Power. Ambitious, and talented work force.

    Tough Short.

  23. The Israel Space Agency and the US Aeronautics and Space Administration signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington last week to promote cooperation.

    Israel is a leader in the field and can contribute much to NASA, said Science and Technology Minister Daniel Herschkowitz, who was accompanied to the meetings by ISA director Dr. Zvi Kaplan. The minister termed the visit with NASA head Charles Bolden as “very successful.”

  24. The deadly weakness of ALL Communistic systems is Agriculture. They just can't do it worth a shit. The difference between China, and any other Communist system we've ever seen before, it their positive cash flow from manufacturing.

    They have plenty of money to buy food from us. And, we can sell them all that they could possibly want.

    And, if WE had the drought of the Epoch, Brazil could ramp up, rapidly. Big "Free Cash Flow" solves a lot of potential problems.

  25. If the Chinese can internalize some of their production output, it'll be a "Great Leap Forward".

    The "Boys of Bentonville" are doing all they can to achieve that, for Charlie Chi-com.

  26. Why sure, the Israeli says it was a successful meeting, they continue on the US gravy train, along with their Semitic cousins, the Saudis.

    Aug 16, 2010
    By Michael Mecham

    Seven teams averaging 15 members each are at work under four-year grants studying everything from the Moon’s formative years to its dust. Scientists at Ames serve on some of the teams, but leadership for the investigations is broadly scattered throughout the world. Principal researchers are from institutions in Saudi Arabia, Canada, South Korea, Israel, the U.K. and the U.S. Of the NLSI’s $13 million annual budget...

    105 team members spending $13 million USD per year, to converse on the internet.

    Good looting if you can get it.

  27. $52 million over the life of the four year grants, to talk about moon dust, on the whirled wide web!

    The looters are in the palace!

  28. desert rat said...
    $52 million over the life of the four year grants, to talk about moon dust, on the whirled wide web!

    The looters are in the palace!

    Yep who needs research and science from those Israelis....

    After all that COMPUTER & CELL PHONE that you use would not be anything as good if not for ISRAELI INNOVATION...

    But Just remember rodent, they are WATCHING YOU, every letter you type, is going into a giant computer file somewhere...

    They KNOW who you are...

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  30. Cream Soda

    Man allegedly ejaculated into water bottle

    A Southern California man has been charged with ejaculating twice into the water bottle of a female co-worker.

    Orange County prosecutors charged 31-year-old Michael Kevin Lallana with misdemeanor counts of releasing an offensive material in a public place and assault, with sentencing allegation for committing a crime for sexual gratification...

  31. The man with the pipette penis.

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

  35. I commend the first section of this newsletter, Breakfast With Dave - 8/17/2010, to your attention. In it Dave Rosenberg, a highly respected economist and investment strategist, gives his forecast for Stage 2 of the current secular credit collapse. Since it is only available via email subscription (anyone can subscribe if they so desire), I have uploaded it (pdf file) to a nascent website I created that might someday provide a forum for energy economics discussions, but is currently empty. Here is the link to download the pdf file:

    Here are the last few paragraphs, but, as they say, read the whole thing:

    Whereas deteriorating household balance sheets were tolerated when the prevailing wisdom was one of linear economic expansion, it becomes unbearable when the perception is that the economy is in contraction mode. For the 55-year olds in 2007 who are now 58, there is no doubt that their household economies are in secular contraction, regardless of what the global economy has to offer.

    Last year we researched what the 80th percentile 55-year old household looked like financially and it turned out that it was completely “upside down”! That is to say, financial assets available to fund retirement were substantially less than mortgage debt. For the baby boomers, the evidence is rapidly becoming unavoidable that a change in behaviour toward extreme frugality is the least painful alternative. All the things that home appreciation, or at least the prospect for wage or stock market gains, used to pay for are being reassessed. In their place, the savings that go along with a tighter budget are likely to be combined with productive life style alternatives to solve the problems associated with the legacy of the unsuccessful planning decisions of the past. (These included leveraging your way to prosperity.)

    We have focused on the baby boom cohort — that 78 million “pig in a python” — for a variety of reasons. The main one is that, along with their traditional role of driving the fashion for the population as a whole, they have entered the stage in their lifecycle characterized by maximum political power. Local and national politics should reflect the mores of this cohort like never before as their economic behaviour changes. It is difficult to imagine that the political establishment will not be beset by some revolutionary forces as baby boomers embrace a strategy of frugality and financial rebuilding. The old paradigm of conspicuous consumption is yesterday’s story.

    There is much work to be done and none of it will bring back the credit expansion any time soon. Severe budgeting and the attendant saving will bring forth the “Savings Paradox.” Retirement will have to be postponed for the baby boomers, making it especially hard for those at the entry level to find employment. In an effort to liquidate debt, home prices will be under extended selling pressure. “Pay as You Go” is staging a major comeback. Government employment will be a major source of economic contraction. Keynesianism will face a major challenge, as it already has with the Administration’s policy response, which has been to rekindle growth by relying on demand-side “quick fixes” to spur the economy rather than supply-side measures aimed at bolstering productive growth in the nation’s capital stock.

    So, there you have it. An outlook that favours saving over conspicuous consumption. An outlook of “getting small” at every level of society — in other words, living within our means. This is a highly deflationary outlook that favours investment strategies that deliver a safe income stream at a reasonable price, even as asset values come under unrelenting pressure.

    The most startling possibility is that, even as the vast majority of pundits debate how “gradual” the recovery will be, we have already entered a period that seems destined to mark the most severe contraction since the horrible 1937-38 setback.

  36. The old paradigm of conspicuous consumption is yesterday’s story.

    That is what I have been saying.

    Step one is digging out of debt, after that, most of us will be reticent about going in the hole again.

  37. As an aside, last week, the latest round of policy response to the credit crisis in real estate by the mortgage bankers (Fannie and Freddie) entered the rumour mill. Would President Obama execute an “October surprise” by offering an $800 billion “jubilee” to households with “upside down” mortgages?

    Ooooh, there it is! RESET...

    with all the attendant moral hazard.

  38. If somehow, someway, "they" figured out how to bail out all those homeowners who are "under water" (make no mistake, it will be at taxpayer expense), can you imagine the hue and cry from those of us who received no bailout?

  39. "The old paradigm of conspicuous consumption is yesterday’s story."

    Some of us were never conspicuous consumers and for us it's the same-ol'-same-ol'.

    I know couples who over the past decade racked up absolutely horrendous debt. And once you've spent so many years doing that, paying off and cutting back is a pretty painful exercise.

  40. paying off and cutting back is a pretty painful exercise.

    It will be pretty painful when our taxes go up and up, too.

  41. So let's try to act like adults when we talk about taxes on investment income, rather than deifying or demonizing Washington. I don't want to pay higher taxes, especially on my investment income.


    From the start of the income tax through 2003, dividends were taxed as regular income, and capital gains were treated far less favorably than now. Somehow both the republic and the financial markets survived.

    They'll survive higher rates, too.

    Stock Market

  42. Also Tuesday, two Israeli soldiers were lightly wounded by a mortar shell fired from Gaza. The incident came a day after Israeli troops killed a Palestinian militant from Islamic Jihad.


    Late Tuesday, Israeli warplanes struck targets including Hamas training facilities in five locations in Gaza, Palestinian security officials said. No one was hurt.

    The Israeli military had no immediate comment.

  43. Deuce/Whit - have y'all seen this?

    RightHaven Ramping Up Its Copyright Trolling Business

    Newspaper Chain’s New Business Plan: Copyright Suits

    You might not want to post anything from the Las Vegas Review-Journal without being informed about it. While it is clearly an abuse of the law, until the law is fixed, defending against this bullshit could be a pain and/or expensive.

  44. Just another scum sucking bottom feeder. Let them attack the Elephant. It could be fun.

  45. Another 15 people have been killed in landslides in an area of the southwestern province of Sichuan that is only just recovering from a massive earthquake in 2008 that left nearly 87,000 dead or missing.

    The mudslides in Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan are the latest in a string of weather-related disasters across China after a summer of heavy rains.

    More than 2100 people have so far been left dead or missing and 12 million evacuated nationwide, not including the toll from the Zhouqu incident, according to official government figures.

    China Mudslides

  46. Let us have a dagger between our teeth, a bomb in our hands, and an infinite scorn in our hearts.

    -Benito Mussolini (rat's idol)

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