Life takes some strange twists and turns:
Former Arizona beauty queen accused of kidnapping, torturing ex-boyfriend in jewelry dispute
ARTHUR H. ROTSTEIN
Associated Press Writer
TUCSON, Ariz. — A law school student and former beauty queen who has posed for a racy calendar while brandishing a weapon has been accused of kidnapping, biting and threatening a former boyfriend with a handgun.
Kumari Fulbright, 25, who is midway through her second year in law school, faces a long prison term if convicted of kidnapping, armed robbery, aggravated robbery and two counts of aggravated assault.
Fulbright, who competed for the Miss Arizona title in 2005 and 2006, recently completed a semester-long unpaid stint clerking for a federal judge, U.S. District Judge Raner Collins, his office said. She also poses wearing a shiny black bikini in a 2008 calendar that features women holding guns.
In the Dec. 18 indictment, Fulbright is accused of holding and torturing her 24-year-old ex-boyfriend in early December with the help of three other men, including another man she had previously dated.
Authorities think the dispute began because the ex-boyfriend was believed to have stolen jewlery given to Fulbright by the former beau suspected of helping in the attack.
Fulbright invited the man to her apartment, then excused herself to shower, said police spokesman Sgt. Fabian Pacheco. Then two men showed up and bound him with plastic ties and duct tape, accused him of taking the jewelry, and threatened to shoot him with pistols, Pacheco said.
When Fulbright finished her shower, she allegedly bit the man on his forearm, right hand and ear, held a butcher knife to his head, and told him she was going to kill him.
Authorities said the man was taken to another home, where the assault continued, then took him back to Fulbright's house, where she guarded him with a gun.
The man finally managed to free a hand and grabbed the gun, which discharged but hit no one, authorities said. As their struggle spilled outside, the man screamed for help, then ran to a home down the block, while Fulbright returned to her apartment, Pacheo said.
"He has some bite marks on him, evident and consistent with his account, and his hands were red and swollen, consistent with someone who had been tied up," Pacheco said.
A police complaint said the suspects stole the victim's wallet, money clip with $500 to $600, and his cell phone and briefcase.
Fulbright's phone is out of service and her apartment was unoccupied Wednesday, without any furniture. Efforts also were made to contact her through MySpace.com.
Tucson police also are seeking to serve her former boyfriend, Robert Ergonis, 44, and his brother, Michael Ergonis, 46, with arrest warrants charging them with kidnapping, armed robbery and aggravated assault, but believe they may have fled the country. Telephone numbers for the brothers were not listed.
Another man who was indicted with Fulbright remains jailed under $50,000 bond, but Fulbright was freed after arranging to have a similar bond posted.
Calls to Fulbright's attorney, Thomas Hartzell, and to the Miss Pima County pageant, which Fulbright won in 2005, were not returned. She also was selected Miss Desert Sun in 2006.
A spokeswoman for the University of Arizona, where Fulbright attends, said it was premature to talk about what could occur in terms of discipline. She and other faculty members declined further comment, citing student privacy.
Here's another strange story about man being his own worst enemy.
'Graphic fantasies' audiotape forces Tennessee judge to resign in embarrassment
Associated Press Writer
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. — A Tennessee judge resigned last month after making a recording of fantasies so lurid that when the tape fell into the hands of the police and FBI, they thought they were listening to a torture session and believed it might be linked to a murder case.
Ultimately, investigators brought no charges against Circuit Judge John B. Hagler, and police said Wednesday he is not a suspect in any investigation.
But the sensational case has led to allegations of professional retaliation, interdepartmental intrigue and strategic news leaks.
The recording was investigated by authorities more than two years ago, but its existence did not come to light publicly until just a few weeks ago, and details on the contents are only now coming out, at a hearing that began Wednesday on whether police must release the tape.
During those two years, the judge remained on the bench, hearing mostly family court cases like divorces and child custody.
Among the mysteries: Why did he make such a recording? Why is it coming to light just now? And what, exactly, is on the tape?
The tape was briefly examined by Chattanooga police and the FBI in late 2005 after a secretary who had just been fired by Hagler turned it over, authorities said. She told them she found the recording of the judge's voice on a tape that also contained legal dictation.
"It sounded like someone being tortured," Chattanooga police Sgt. Alan Franks testified Wednesday, offering the first details of what is on the tape.
Franks said the recording was investigated in relation to a still-unsolved 1997 murder. He gave no other details on the murder case.
"The content was so shocking. I have been a police officer for 24 years," Franks said before his testimony was cut off by an objection.
Investigators ultimately concluded the recording consisted only of fantasies.
Two years later, the tape made its way to the prosecutor in Hagler's Tennessee district, District Attorney Steve Bebb. Then, last month, the Chattanooga Times Free Press learned about the recording from an unidentified source, and Hagler confirmed it and resigned.
Hagler said that he had done nothing wrong but that the recording had caused great embarrassment to friends, family and the courts. Hagler, who is 65 and married, has been a circuit judge in Cleveland, Tenn., since 1990 and served three terms as president of the Tennessee Trial Judges Association.
"The description of it as containing 'graphic fantasies' ... is an accurate and sufficient description and all any decent person would want to hear of it," the judge said in a statement.
Bebb, the district attorney, said he, too, concluded the recording was not connected to any crime, but what he heard led him to persuade Hagler, whom he describes as a longtime friend, to resign.
"This would disturb any human being who heard it," Bebb said.
The judge strongly suggested the leak was committed by someone with a grudge against him, perhaps someone he ruled against.
"In my opinion, the real story here, so strongly expressed by an alert and outraged public, is not about me or my sins, but about whether one of our essential public institutions, the judiciary, has been the victim of a retaliatory attack," Hagler said in his statement. He did not elaborate but alluded to a dispute within the local bar association.
The district attorney has disputed speculation the leak was related to the judge's recent ruling against a local sheriff's department's request for more funding.
Bebb said in December that he sent a copy of the tape to the state Court of the Judiciary, which handles complaints against judges. A court spokeswman said the panel would not act because the judge has resigned and it no longer has jurisdiction.
Members of the local bar have asked federal prosecutors to investigate how the existence of the tape became public. Police said FBI agents are asking them questions about the leak.
The judge is fighting a request by the Chattanooga Times Free Press, The Associated Press and other news organizations that the tape be released. The hearing resumes on Thursday.
Hagler was relaxed and smiling at times during Wednesday's hearing. He said during a break that he had not heard the tape in the hands of police and could not be sure it was the one he recorded. "I hope it's my voice," he said.
Man, this place is turning into MTV!ReplyDelete
Rollins Gives em that old tyme Fire and Brimstone
I overheard Rollins’ conversation while dining in a restaurant called Winston’s located close to Huckabee’s Iowa headquarters and took notes on my computer. Below is a compilation of what I heard:
-He distinctly talked about going negative in South Carolina and told someone on the phone to “put some good in there if you have to, with the bad. Do what you gotta do.”
-Rollins let the f-bomb fly twice and told his blonde female dining companion a joke about flying the Confederate flag in the South Carolina state capitol.
-Rollins indicated several times their campaign was the victim of “dirty tricks” and that they were being unfairly outspent.
-Rollins also criticized another candidate as believing the Presidency was “their birthright.”
-Rollins made a phone call to Lou Dobbs and said he would ready to have drinks with him after Iowa to talk about Hillary. There also was a reference to Rollins’ recent comments about wanting to knock Romney’s teeth out, as Rollins told Dobbs “they are all porcelain.”
-Rollins also called Andrea Mitchell and predicted Obama would take Iowa tonight. He called Mitchell “sweetie” several times.
-Rollins believes Rudy Giuliani is “done,” “has no money,” and was “hurt terribly by those police cruises with his girlfriends.”
-Rollins called said Fred Thompson was “as disgrace as a candidate. Fred has been a friend a long time, but has never converted a single vote. No one is taking him seriously.”
Huckabee Chairman Ed Rollins Trashes Romney
"Man, this place is turning into MTV!"ReplyDelete
You'd think the FCC would step in and put an end to these reminders of what happened to America since the Christian Conservatives took over.
h/t: A Charlie Brown Winter Holiday Yulefest - Larry Chomstein
No Country for Old Men (2007)
Christian Crazies taking over in Iowa.ReplyDelete
Let's run a Snake Oil Candidate from the Bar:
I nailed the Republican pick.ReplyDelete
Democratic hopeful Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico said he was feeling good in the final hours.ReplyDelete
"You know, I think a lot of the undecideds are breaking my way. Iowans make up their minds at the last minute, maybe 30 percent of them in the last three to four days, and I'm seeing good movement," he said.
The second tier of Democratic candidates -- Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Richardson -- will all need strong showings in Iowa or risk a fatal blow to their campaigns.
If you don't say so yourself. I aimed for the nail and hit my thumb.ReplyDelete
I got Thompson for show. (so far)ReplyDelete
"I nailed the Republican pick."ReplyDelete
Clean Sweep For SamReplyDelete
Couple threads back. I had:ReplyDelete
Place isn't decided yet for the dems.ReplyDelete
Wow. Edwards/Clinton are tight.ReplyDelete
Man, that would be funny if she came in 3rd.ReplyDelete
Michael Savage claims 39,000,000 virtual radio listener votes, but isn't running.ReplyDelete
Art Bell for President! The only man on the planet that can 'talk' with the aliens.ReplyDelete
Hey, feed me enough tequila...ReplyDelete
Edwards/Clinton are tight.ReplyDelete
As the bark on a tree, if you got to know them financially, I bet.
Did Doug imply that I am "a snake oil salesman?"ReplyDelete
Better to talk to, than to talk wit, aliens. No?ReplyDelete
You know nothing about the aliens, Mat, you don't talk down to them folk:)ReplyDelete
IBD has an editorial on a story about the Media reporting on Fallujah resulting in more deaths than should have been. It's an interesting, quick readReplyDelete
Idiotic Iowa Dems are going for Obama.ReplyDelete
You politely, quietly talk with them. Or you end up like a mutilated cow, eyeballs gouged out, blood drained.ReplyDelete
Whit, look at their choices! Hell, does it matter?ReplyDelete
Thompson got 3rd.ReplyDelete
The country's great hope, Fred.ReplyDelete
Where'd you get that idear, 'Rat:ReplyDelete
I was talkin about taking a lesson from the Huckster, selling snake oil and religious bigotry, along with the rest of the Arkansan BS.
Your picture made me think Rat!
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
Pepper a some radioactive salt and who'll know the difference?
Naw, I just thot you'd make a good candidate, having the experience of co-running this massive enterprise.ReplyDelete
Steyn up next on Hewitt, the NH "expert."ReplyDelete
I read an article that said some snake oil is good for you. Seriously. The Japs or somebody use it. But, then, they eat little super thin gold wafers too, those that can afford it.ReplyDelete
When all those campaign buses leave Iowa, it's going to feel cold and lonely there. From being the center of the universe, to Pluto.ReplyDelete
I read about some butterflys that have ants raise their Babies!ReplyDelete
Coat them with ant chemical.
Where different ants have dif chemicals, so do the Butterguys and Gals.
I'd be glad not to have any close neighbors, given how they voted!ReplyDelete
It looks to me that in Iowa, color is only skin deep, but religion goes to the bones.ReplyDelete
Dang, McCain is edging Thompson with 79% reporting.ReplyDelete
That ain't good:ReplyDelete
The guys I'm listening to give Big Mac a chance to take it all.
Wo is us!
Does it matter at this stage?
It is apparent that Hillary in her concession concession speech is talking like a deflated has been. She is.ReplyDelete
Is Thompson in the lead anywhere?ReplyDelete
Obama will be harder to beat.ReplyDelete
Rudy is finished.ReplyDelete
I don't know, Mat. I'm always wrong, anyways.ReplyDelete
Dodd bites the bullet, throws in the jock.
New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut are winner take all for RudyReplyDelete
McCain is pulling up to ThompsonReplyDelete
Thompson is even here at my house.ReplyDelete
Old ladys vote for Hill.ReplyDelete
I don't think Rudy has the fire to do it.ReplyDelete
Dodd wears a jock?ReplyDelete
Iowa isn't the south, deuce.ReplyDelete
Hillary has a ton of money.ReplyDelete
Homeschoolers for Huck.ReplyDelete
Guess I'm not a typical Homeschooler.
He did. Larry Craig told me so.
See what Huck has to say.ReplyDelete
Interesting that two out of three dems do not want HillaryReplyDelete
Obama not only won, he really won. 8 percentage points.ReplyDelete
From Washington and Lincoln to this!ReplyDelete
...brought to us by the corrupt Fraud that is GWB.
I think a lot of the Republican establishment has underestimated Huck.ReplyDelete
There are more democrats than republicans. The election can only go to the republicans if they peel off some democrats. Romney cannot do that.ReplyDelete
I think Huckabee can, if he doesn't self-destruct.ReplyDelete
Bob, I'm scared! The jimee stoolwart peeresident is talking bout prayry fires and in alienly rights..ReplyDelete
I agree, Romney can't win. Therefore I'm cheering for Thompson.ReplyDelete
Prayryy fires are scary Mat, don't alienate yourself from yourself!
They're saying McCain got third.ReplyDelete
Obama would slaughter the Huckster.ReplyDelete
The MSM will slaughter the Huckster.
All this over a few thousand of the most Radical Iowa Partisans!ReplyDelete
Most Iowans Are Caucus No-ShowsReplyDelete
Obama's speaking style makes Hillary look very poorly in comparison.ReplyDelete
Can't you just see the headlines a couple years from now?ReplyDelete
Obama gets Osama
You're right. If it came down to it. Obama would take out Huckabee.ReplyDelete
I'm listening to Obama now. He sounds fine, very competent speaker.ReplyDelete
It is clear no one from the sixties generation is going to be president.ReplyDelete
Sounds better than Osama gets Obama.ReplyDelete
"This was the moment.." ???
O' for the days of a chicken in every pot!ReplyDelete
With Obama, every American shall get to quarter an illegal and a bureaucrat to monitor the quartering.
Every American flag shall be shat in and buried in barren inner-city parks to fertilize organic garden renewal projects.
Obama will apologize for Nick Berg, the neocon and forge a coalition of the willing to dig up Theo Van Gogh and create a Hajj festivity with his coffin. Obama's closeness to technology entrepreneurs will ensure the audio/video production on the game will be top-notch for hard-to-please Muslim audiences.
Obama can offer a subsidy to Americans by buying some of their Carbon debt if they lend their documents to illegals or flaggelate themselves on youtube during the Shiite holy day of Muslim Mosh Pit.
Clitorus-free vaginas will become the in-thing, as women feverishly apply foundation and blush and all manner of plaster to try and disguise their immodest genitals.
Obama will erect a Memorial to the undocumented Thoreaus whose larger-than-life ambition clashed with our puritanical insistence on harmful "Drug War" enforcement.
Like it or not, Iowa is important.ReplyDelete
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
Republicans are in deep deep Iowa doo doo.ReplyDelete
Watchin' Obama give his speach.ReplyDelete
Billery may well wilt, especially if she goes after policy differences in the minutiae of Obama's Health Care Proposal.
He'll run even, at least in New Hampshire and kill her off in Michigan and South Carolina. Juan Williams said it, the identity vote will flock to him, after the white folk already have.
Looks JFKennedyish ...
Speaking of Hope.
if Rudy can't stop him in Florida,
and then carry Cal-e-fornia ...
Mr Thompson and McCain ran even at 13%
Combined they beat Romney, didn't match the Huckster.
It'll be a strange election, come November.
Obama can't win in the south against a guy like Huckabee, race aside, Huck's their kind of guy. So could Obama win without any of the south?ReplyDelete
South Carolina, that's the important primary, for the Dems.ReplyDelete
Florida for the GOP.
Thompson, 3rd. Hmm,..ReplyDelete
But for the life of me I can't imagine Huck as being the nominee.ReplyDelete
It'd run like 2000 and 2004ReplyDelete
Who carries Ohio?
Huckabee will finally re-orient the War on Obesity such that we take the fight to the Fat People, smoke them out of their homes, and extract their gelatinous hydrocarbons.ReplyDelete
The National Anthem will be recorded in a rousing Bass Guitar solo performed by the POTUS for the SCOTUS, CENTCOM,
Or McCain 3rd, Thompson 4thReplyDelete
both at 13%
McCain will do better in New Hampshire, than Thompson.
Thompson's hope is South Carolina, but Huckabee could easily carry it.
Huck will have money, Thompson, shoe leather. Huskster has the churches, best organization there is, in Iowa, or South Carolina.
Can McCain beat Obama? MaybeReplyDelete
Can Romney beat Obama? No
Huckabee? Not sure
Biden's out now as well.ReplyDelete
Romney hangs through Michigan, his Daddy's legacy carries him there.ReplyDelete
Then it's a question of how much money he wants to spend on his political hobby, or addiction.
Even Steve Forbes put in a stop loss. But Romney, it's his life's ambition and his only chance.
I don't think drinking while politically participating explains the <|:D antics. The caucus uncertainty was like 90 minutes long...and upbeat!ReplyDelete
Guess I know where those American mortgage payments went!
I was reading an argument from one of those Barnett groupies who postulate a "5th Generation" of warfare - they advocate McCain on account of him being the key to re-invigorating American federalism.ReplyDelete
McCain and Federalism, anyone?
You know, if the rules were changed, Schwarzenegger would be a shoe-in, wouldn't he?ReplyDelete
Who carries Ohio and Florida, in November?ReplyDelete
Those are the "Swing" States.
Bush carried Florida, but his brother's gone, so it's even money, now.
Ohio, the GOP is in the dumps there, scandalized by graft and corruption.
Hillery did look a bit deflated.
The Bible, The Whole Bible, and Nothing But The Bible.ReplyDelete
Hillary deflated? Damn, I need to see that.ReplyDelete
She was down baby.......down....down.ReplyDelete
McCain is corrupt, dishonest and spent five years being mind fucked.ReplyDelete
I respect his past service, but he'd be a true disaster, as President. He's a poor Senator, but only one of one hundred.
Nice to see aspirin and Hu in da bar.ReplyDelete
So, Help Me, God.ReplyDelete
Votin' Ron Paul in the Primary, unless Rudy steps up in Florida and gets competitive.ReplyDelete
We run a winner take all system, if McCain is still in, he'll win, here.
Hilary Doesn't Want an ELECTION VICTORY WHEN SERGE BRIN AND GOOGLE CAN GIVE HER DIGITAL IMMORTALITY!ReplyDelete
Every website you goto, Hil-gorithms will observe, orient, decide and act to send your data to China in exchange for Buddhist treasure.
Every Amazon purchase, you make, your rationality will be compared to that of Hilary, whose decision will have been based on the wisdom of the most people who are also smarter than most everyone else whose ever lived.
Every illicit paragraph will require a Microsoft Word Paperclip-esque intervention, with Hilary appearing to warn you of your dilletantish indiscretions!
Any suggestive fandango you purchase on the Internet will be compiled in a Hilta-base, where it will be sold to Nigerian Buddhists to extort you, the better to free themselves from earthly pain via your money.
Obama is the clear winner tonight. But that's stating the obvious.ReplyDelete
He's a poor Senator, but only one of one hundred.ReplyDelete
I'll trade you Craig, Rat, and throw in our governor, for McCain, and the Arizonan of your choice.
The Rules, they won't be changin'.ReplyDelete
The Governator could be a Senator.
If his wife wants him to be.
Forgotten American IngenuityReplyDelete
This is being added to all 2008 Chinese Textbooks.
Americans can get too wrapped up in their politics to remember what they're really good at...
Sure, Craig's up for reelection.ReplyDelete
McCain is in for another three years.
Spends more time worried about folk in New Hampshire than AZ.
But then again Craig was in the restroom, about an even deal, I'd say.
Biden even fails to be the first one out.ReplyDelete
He did do better than Dodd.ReplyDelete
Dodd got zero, Biden was at least in single digits, in the raw count. But not enough for a single percentage point, on FOX.
Obama can revolutionize American plumbing with his low-carbon Above-ground overhead pipe-scheme.ReplyDelete
Allow Americans to take responsibility and control over their waste, and you will see their creativity unleashed.
Note this invention from one of Obama's TechCrunch Web 2.0 start-up supporters.
Its remarkable how many people await breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence when Manhattan Projects are blooming all around us.
This is good. I really could not have taken her cackling and better than you attitude if she had came 1st.ReplyDelete
Which contracts do you think Huckabee will see fit to nullify? Bush had his preferences. What will Huckabees be?ReplyDelete
And what laws will be impediments to Obama's grand designs?
Americans too often focus on what policies so-and-so will be advocating or implementing, while they should also consider asking candidates which laws, rules etc they've no time or inclination to submit to...
just my humble sino $.02....
Recent history suggests that Iowa voters react negatively to negative attacks. In 2004, former governor Howard Dean (Vt.) and then-Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) savaged one another on television, only to watch Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) and Edwards shoot the gap to claim first and second place.ReplyDelete
History also suggest that the winner of tonight's caucuses will be well positioned to wind up as the party's nominee. Of the eight contested Iowa Democratic caucuses since 1972, the winner has gone on to win the nomination five times.
The same holds true for Republicans as the winner of three out of the five contested caucuses has become the eventual nominee.
I am amused at the media Republican so-called kingmakers being head butted by Huck.ReplyDelete
100% Democratic precincts reporting:ReplyDelete
86% Republican precincts reporting:
Thompson leads McCain by 250 votes.
Make that 240.ReplyDelete
f the situation deteriorates further, or if any investigation into Bhutto's death can prove the complicity of the military or intelligence services, the aid that has been promised to Musharraf, including the F-16s, could be in jeopardy. These aircraft are of a different generation and technological level than the earlier models that Islamabad purchased in the 1980s.ReplyDelete
Given the close cooperation of Pakistan with China's defense industry and the proximity of the U.S. Presidential primaries, the F-16s could come off the table, despite all denials to date to the contrary.
Things are, however, not always as they seem. Reversing the decision to provide Pakistan with 18 (plus an option for 18 more) F-16s would be a blow to Lockheed Martin, but it might also make it easier for the U.S. to make a sale of the aircraft to India, which has finally put out a long-awaited tender for a much larger purchase: 126 medium weight fighters plus options for 63 more.
Dumb and Dumber
Well it goes to show you, deuce, money and slick hair and ads aren't shucks when it comes to voting. On both sides. Hillary and Mitt, the two most polished campaigns. In that sense it's encouraging. And in a state where I have been reading, organization supposed to mean a lot. Hillary had 5,000 drivers I read, ready to haul them caucaites to the caucus.ReplyDelete
IOWA: A Very Cheerful Rudy GiulianiReplyDelete
John Podhoretz - 01.03.2008 - 21:40
On MSNBC, Rudy Giuliani is making a very smiley, happy showing of himself. The result in Iowa could not have been better for Giuliani tactically. Romney has been injured. Huckabee won, but did not apparently win by a huge margin, and there won’t be many other states where evangelicals make up fully three-fifths of the primary electorate. And John McCain did not, it seems, come in third with a surprising showing, but fourth with a very modest showing. If McCain beats Romney in New Hampshire, Romney will have a difficult time going on — but McCain clearly hasn’t yet turned the corner and brought conservative Republicans back in his corner. And Fred Thompson’s third-place showing wasn’t impressive enough to kick his campaign back to life. With no one especially strong on the Republican side through the first few states, the Giuliani strategy of betting it all on Florida on January 29 and the big states on February 5 is looking better than it did a week ago.
Bill Clinton, in particular, looked quite subdued. Only smiled, barely, about once. He needs Monica, to 'make me feel young again.'ReplyDelete
Huckabee 38,656 34% 30 WinnerReplyDelete
Romney 28,311 25% 7
Thompson 15,044 13% 0
McCain 14,759 13% 0
Paul 11,216 10% 0
Giuliani 3,860 4% 0
Hunter 499 1% 0
Sounds like Giuliani, with 4% of the vote, comes out on top, Rat. Try explaining that to third worlders looking for democracy:)
Good to see Fred beat John.ReplyDelete
McCain's vote goes to Thompton.ReplyDelete
Thompton's vote goes to Giuliani.
Romney's vote goes to Giuliani.
Giuliani beats Huckabee.
Giuliani will be President.
•Elmer Gantry vs. Mr HappyjiveReplyDelete
Take that, Mr Proprieter, sir!ReplyDelete
We've had about enough of your gloating about Huck floating your boat!
:)Elmer v HappyJive LOLReplyDelete
Good analysis, by the way.
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
You still do not understand the US, mat. McCain wins in New Hampshire, takes Romney's momenteum out.ReplyDelete
Huckabee wins in South Carolina, it has the church base he needs.
If Thompson drops out, it'll be after South Carolina.
First comes South Carolina, 19 Jan
RCP Average 12/09 - 12/18
Huckabee = 25.8
Romney = 19.3
Thompson = 13.5
McCain = 13.0
Rudy = 12.8
Paul = 6.3
Rudy will not surge in South Carolina, if Thompson drops out, his support in SC splits between Big John and Huck.
Huck wins in SC.
Then upon Florida 29 Jan.
Huck will be surging, now Thompson drops out, spilt between McCain and Huck, Romney hangs on, waiting for Michigan.
If Huck wins in Florida, he's the man of the hours
RCP Average 12/12 - 12/18
Rudy = 25.3
Huck = 23.3
Romney = 19.0
McCain = 11.0
Thompson = 8.8
Paul = 3.3
Then Super Tuesday February 5,
Idaho for Democrats,
Kansas for Democrats†,
New Jersey, Rudy
New York, Rudy
Brokered convention for the GOPReplyDelete
"You still do not understand the US, mat."ReplyDelete
I'm going on the presumption that larger states carry more delegates. And as far as I can guess, Rudy will take them all.
No one drops out, hoping to be the compromise candidate.ReplyDelete
Then Thompson hangs on.
Does not drop out until after his favorite son status gets him a seat at the convention negotiations.
But not enough to win.ReplyDelete
Many of the States send proportional delegates to the convention, based upon results, not winner take all. Would have to go through the rules of each State to see how they break down.
Then the Convention is brokered, in the infamous smoke filled rooms.
Iowa one such StateReplyDelete
Huck gets 30
None for the balance.
In California, the biggest prize
That, combined with a new GOP delegate allotment system, could give Democratic-leaning places like the Bay Area a place in Republican politics they don't usually enjoy.
This time, GOP delegates in California will be divvied up by who wins each congressional district, three delegates for each of the state's 53 districts. Without a statewide-winner-take-all system, it makes sense for candidates to show up in liberal as well as conservative enclaves.
for the Republicans, a majority of delegates is required to secure the nomination (meaning more than half). Of the 3,101 up for grabs, 2,439 are assigned according to who wins the primary or caucus in each state. The other 662 delegates are unpledged, meaning they get to pick who to support. Add those numbers together and you get 1,551 delegates required to win.ReplyDelete
If no candidate can win the required majority on the first ballot, then all of the 3,101 delegates become unpledged, and that is when states start to change hands.
This site links to each State, as to their delegate selection and convention voting process.ReplyDelete
In New Tork,ReplyDelete
101 Total Delegates:
87 Congressional District
& 14 At Large
Delegates not bound
Presidential Preference Primary:
Each presidential candidate must file a full slate of delegates with the State Board of Elections before the primary.
The candidate receiving the most votes in the primary is entitled to have his slate of congressional district and alternate delegates become the delegates to the national convention.
Those delegates not legally bound to vote for the winner.
jeeze! Bonus delegates. Didn't know that. Like frequent flyer miles or something. Bonus points on the credit card.ReplyDelete
BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election, the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities, and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).
Bonus delegates are awarded based on the number of party members elected as Presidential Electors (2004), Governors (2004-2007), House members (2004-2007), Senators (2002-2007), and state legislatures (2004-2007).
No wonder I never got involved except at the ballot box, all this stuff would drive you batty. Leave it to the boys, and girls, with the cigars and bourbon. Let's face it, if there weren't matters of life and death involved, who could possibly take any of this crap seriously?
I had a cousin, a lefty, who had a great sense of humor, and a flare for acting, and could take his thumb, and stroke it up and down inside his suspenders, and, with a cigar in his mouth, look out into space, and say, "ah can deee-liver the 5th precinct." Always made me laugh out loud, every time.ReplyDelete
New York: 101 Total DelegatesReplyDelete
Iowa: 40 Total Delegates
Wow. Is Iowa that heavily populated to account for almost half as many delegates as New York?
Ioway, no way!ReplyDelete
2 Million f...... up folks I think.
New York has ?
This whole thing might finally be settled in a smoke filled rest room somewhere.ReplyDelete
Probly Albob's Algorerythm doin it:ReplyDelete
New York don't elect no Pubs.
I propose that that process is overseen by Larry Craig, and is then consumated with the Alderman's Poop Pump.ReplyDelete