Shut Down the Fed (Part II) Ambrose Evans Pierce - Telegraph
The dangers of tipping into a debt compound trap – as described by Irving Fisher in Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depresssions in 1933 – outweigh the risk of an expanded money stock catching fire and setting off an inflation surge later. Debt deflation is a toxic process that can and does destroy societies as well as economies. You do not trifle with it.
But deliberately creating inflation “consistent” with the Fed’s mandate – implicitly to erode debt – is another matter. Nor can this be justified at this particular juncture. M3 has been leveling out. M2 has begun to rise briskly. The velocity of money has picked up. The M1 monetary mulitplier has jumped.
We have a very odd world. The IMF has doubled its global growth forecast to 4.5pc this year, and authorities everywhere have ruled out a serious risk of a double dip recession.
Yet at the same time the Bank of Japan has embarked on unsterilised currency intervention, which amounts to stimulus, and both the Fed and the Bank of England are signalling fresh QE.
You can’t have it both ways. If the US is not in deep trouble, the Fed should not be thinking of extra QE. It should step back and let the economy heal itself, if necessary enduring several years of poor growth to purge excess leverage.
People want to know - Are we worried about deflation and if not and things aren't "all that bad", is Bernanke thinking of in effect, monetizing the debt? Personally, I think we could pour money into the economy for a long time before we get back to appreciable inflation. We have underlying structural problems - like consumer debt out the ying yang. Of course, that is just my opinion which we all know is like a ying-yang.
Don't you EVER do that to my computer again, Whit.ReplyDelete
WHAT? You didn't love it?ReplyDelete
Ol' Ambrosia: He just "stays" in confusion. He said,ReplyDelete
"We have a very odd world. The IMF has doubled its global growth forecast to 4.5pc this year, and authorities everywhere have ruled out a serious risk of a double dip recession.
Yet at the same time the Bank of Japan has embarked on unsterilised currency intervention, which amounts to stimulus, and both the Fed and the Bank of England are signalling fresh QE."
Ambrosia, dear, the "World" (read: China, India, Brazil, S. Korea, Saudi and persian gulf pups, etc) might be "doin' fine,"
but "WE" are Stuck. By "We," I mean "The U.S., Great Britain, and Japan."
"WE" ain't the World. We ain't tryin' to Stimulate the "World." We're trying to keep "Our" Sorry Asses out of Depression.
Ol' Ambrosia - I wonder if he bets football. I'd sure love to be his "bookie."
Some people make a good living off drama.ReplyDelete
heh, Trick Daddy.ReplyDelete
I got to start packing.
I'm headin' to the City o' Trick Daddies par excellance.
That was the Ying Yang Twins with Trick Daddy.ReplyDelete
I clicked on that sorry mess. Now I have to take my laptop in for an exorcism.ReplyDelete
I wonder if Quirk does exorcisms?
Maybe it blew some carbon off the pistons.ReplyDelete
I just flashed an image of an unhinged laptop spinning on a little cloud of paranormal steam puffs.ReplyDelete
Kind of a shartruse color.
USA economy is being 'decoupled' from two things - the last decade and the next decade.ReplyDelete
The last decade is simple. The financial services infrastructure founded on housing and securitized investment products was unsustainable. Thud. Ended not with a bang but a banker.
The next decade will see USA growth fully decoupled from emerging markets exporting industrial products. Those "new and better" service jobs? Already discussed ad nauseum ad infinitum. This country is entering another phase of economic evolution, described in part by Rufus with the increased labor productivity theme, but the public debate still locked in federal tax policy.
So we get another campaign cycle dominated by the tax debate. I heard on the news tonight that the next phase - from the Dems - is Buck up Little Buckaroo. Reminds me of Phil "Stop your whining" Gramm two years ago.
The American attitude would be just fine thank you very much if we had seen some accountability. We have not seen that. No rumblings of investigations let alone formal charges or family-related resignations. Bad enough it won't happen, but add to it the bankers were bailed.
With that I am done with the subject. It is not well or cleverly worded but the gist is there.**
** I don't hate bankers. Just NIMBY.
I heard on the news tonight that the next phase - from the Dems - is Buck up Little Buckaroo. Reminds me of Phil "Stop your whining" Gramm two years ago.ReplyDelete
That's interesting because I just read this evening that the BoE told savers to stop whining and start spending
"The market sentiment looks uncertain as the global macroeconomic picture is fairly poor following mixed economic indicators from the US and Asia," said Sucden Financial analyst Myrto Sokou.ReplyDelete
Oil prices had closed mixed on Monday amid fears for the health of the world economy.
Phil Flynn, an oil analyst at PFG Best Research, said prices had risen strongly last week on the back of gold's record breaking run higher.
One more point.ReplyDelete
The current group of analysts are not immune from a bias induced by the usual suspects of envy, convenience, laziness, and agendas, but this "USA in decline" theme is undoubtedly being leveraged to maximize the immediacy of the profit to be gained from an economy in transition.
From Quirk's link:
5. North American Alliance
Canada, United States
These two countries are joined at the hip in terms of their economies, demographics, and culture, with each easily being the other’s largest trade partner. Many pundits see this vast region in the grip of inexorable decline. They’re wrong, at least for now. North America boasts many world-class cities, led by New York; the world’s largest high-tech economy; the most agricultural production; and four times as much fresh water per capita as either Europe or Asia.
Water and agriculture are not receiving proper treatment in the current case for Western Decline, although advances in membrane technology might change that equation sooner than we think (ref Charles @ BC).
It's a far cry from what I was listening toReplyDelete
electric tooth brush
carton of Kool 100's
disguise Q mailed
surgical gloves Q mailed
license plate obscurer Q mailed
gold neck chain
handcuffs Q mailed
golf shoes for stream
formal holdup note Q mailed
vegas lawyer's number
two way radio
toe nail clippers
traveling sun glasses
books to read
I'm good to go
toothpaste recommended by matReplyDelete
book about early fauna of nevadaReplyDelete
Strangest things have been going on. People that have Never been on a farm, people that wouldn't know an ass from their ass, people that have never even grown a garden have become experts on "farmland, irrigation, fertility, and the one I particularly love "tilth."ReplyDelete
organic farming sucksReplyDelete
tire in a canReplyDelete
peel off tattoos
Now, they've discovered the Ogallala Aquifer. Life will never be the same. They don't seem to understand that the states involved (a bunch of them) have been regulating the water taken out, and measuring the levels (yes, levels, it's a vast system stretched over many states and multiple geologies) for decades.ReplyDelete
People that couldn't grow a freakin' zucchini are critiquing farmers that have millions of dollars invested in the value of their land.
People rending their garments, and gnashing their teeth at the prospect of "starvation" that are unaware that we've taken 150 Million Acres OUT of Rowcrop production in the last hundred years. Bizarre.
Would you believe my laptop blew up? I'm now running diagnostics. Posting this from my iPod touch. Error: cannot load hive. This could be the end of a laptop.ReplyDelete
Wheat was down a bunch today.ReplyDelete
You mean like in boom?
and while I'm speechifying: How tired are you all of hearing, "THAT Job cost $150,000!!!!!" Or, "Those jobs cost A Quarter of a Million Dollars, APIECE!!!!"
Come on, Bubbas. What do these assholes think a modern manufacturing plant costs?
I got news for you; if you're not operating a Million Dollars worth of Equipment some little Chinaman is getting ready to put your sorry ass out of work.
Look up the cost on the latest car plant. Divide by Number of Workers. I doubt that a $ Million will catch it. $150 K sure as hell won't.
Jacque's phone number and new addressReplyDelete
list of vision questions
I warned you about that hip hop crap.ReplyDelete
Quick, call Quirk.
A Rosicrucian Exorcist might be your only hope.
old desert poem to be finishedReplyDelete
star chart, horoscope listing lucky daysReplyDelete
peel off tattoosReplyDelete
Damn, I would have never thought of that.
list of casinos with single zero roulette tablesReplyDelete
list of single zero roulette tables
That was a well written note, Quirk.ReplyDelete
Dear Madam Teller....
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
It also came on the same day tourists were evacuated from the Eiffel Tower in Paris following the second bomb alert this month at the world famous landmark.ReplyDelete
The all clear was given late Tuesday following the evacuation, sparked by a phone call to the operator of the tower at 1640 GMT (2.40am) warning of a bomb.
On Monday, a major Paris train station was evacuated after a bomb alert that proved to be a false alarm.
A Rosicrucian Exorcist might be your only hope.ReplyDelete
All our exorcists are out on call right now Ruf. There has been a rash of laptops across the US that have crashed and burned.
I don't think our guys can to anything to help but we get $150 per service call just for showing up.
You gotta do what you gotta do.
And who knows, perhaps there are some "deus ex machina" out there that they can help with.
Had to re-post that last one. I've been having troubles all day. Can't even type anymore.ReplyDelete
I did finally get the Libra scope up on the last stream though.
In time, you will understand. Now get back to your TV. Perusing these posts will only confuse you.***ReplyDelete
***Boldly stolen from the comments.
Changed it to 'Paris Hilton' Bob.ReplyDelete
(However, I don't think you have seen Britney lately. My wife gets The Enquirer. I usually just check it out to see who is the masked lady with the cellulite, but I saw a picture of Britney at the beach the other day. She is looking hot. A lot better than Paris.)
My name is Peggy.ReplyDelete
Can I help you?
You do know that the house odds on roulette are the largest of all the games - slots and tables?ReplyDelete
Don't you bob?
Craps is your best game. I won $700 one night in Reno.
I though I'd died and gone to Moscow, Idaho.
Yeah, but you can't bet red and even on craps.ReplyDelete
Go ahead and change it back if you think best, Quirk.
My wife takes the Star
I won $1700 at craps one day.ReplyDelete
Went to one of those classes where they teach you how to play for half an hour or so and then they let you play for real at low stakes for a while.
Anyway, me and this Canadian guy were joking around with the ladies running the table and they kind of forced us to play well or at least better.
Luck had something to do with it but not much.
Went back the next day, lost $500, and quit.
You weren't the Peggy I picked up at Mingle's----were you?ReplyDelete
We listened to the Vandals football on a transitor up on Moscow Mountain, drank vodka and orange juice, really got it on, and on the way home shot some grouse. Was that you?
O, I see you say you thought you died.ReplyDelete
My apologies, Madam.
Anyway it was heavenly, I thought we both had died, whoever that Peggy was.ReplyDelete
Quirk, are you sure you don't want to go?
We could set up a lawn chair for you in the bed of the truck behind the new tool chest.
I was going to say that Star picture of Britney was real old but who knows.ReplyDelete
The Enquirer photo was taken a couple weeks ago. Who knows what she looks like now.
Just saw a blurb on Comcast that said Kirstie Alley just lost 50 pounds again in a short amount of time.
Honky Tonk WomenReplyDelete
You should see Drew Carey these days.ReplyDelete
The women are all going "wow!".
Was that you?ReplyDelete
Yes. Yes. Click.
Was that you?ReplyDelete
Yes. Yes. Click.
It sounds like fun but I'm committed to stuff on the weekends from from now through the end of October. Weddings, golf outings, bachelor parties, a little medical procedure. Then my birthday (and more importantly my wife's birthday) at the beginning of November.
I told you I came from a large family. For some reason, best not to go into, over a couple of generations they were all born between September and the beginning of January. This is my busy season.
It will probably be early January before I can slip away.
jeez, what's that they say about 'women' looking better when you're soused?ReplyDelete
Well, Quirk, alas, all I can say is another time.
Remember what I said about getting in touch with you outside the blog and how I was going to set it up.ReplyDelete
Three is the charm.
As the guy above wroteReplyDelete