“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Monday, September 20, 2010

Chasing Returns


  1. the value of gold tells it all...

    the dollar has shrunk...

    put up the cost of oil against that chart and be prepared to be shocked...

    it's all the dollar.

    houses and other manufactured symbols of value were over leveraged and produced in the last 10 years.

    most people's largest investment is their home. that has been flattened by 2 different things..

    1. community reinvestment act, this allows those that should not afford a home to get one

    2. cheap chinese loans to people should never have qualified.

    the traditional valued asset classes are laid flat...

    money in the bank, t bills, stocks, homes all are no longer safe haven against turmoil

    the government can tax, the world can depreciate (the dollar), the stock market can collapse (to many dollars chasing to few stocks), housing can be shown to me no more than giant match box cars...

    as a small business the only thing of value I have is my client base...

    most other Americans? You are screwed..

  2. Get some land, they ain't making anymore, far from the maddening crowd, make friends with you neighbors a mile away, plant some fruit trees, buy a shot gun, a light rifle, some really heavy gardening equipment, remember water, the most basic of housing, like a single wide, some medical stuff, all the dried food you can afford, a chainsaw, a dulcimer, your favorite one hundred books, and a chess board.

  3. Don't forget the wife, and the milk cow.

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  5. On the Other Hand

    The second insight from Habu was his advice on gold.

    I would like to see that 10-yr chart pre-crash.

  6. Ex-Physicist Leading Inquiry Into Flash Crash

    Now, from his small office at the Securities and Exchange Commission here, the former physicist is busy completing a similarly painstaking task, supervising a team of more than 20 investigators who have spent the last five months scrutinizing reams of stock-trading data and hundreds of interview transcripts in an effort to figure out why stock prices went into free fall for 20 terrifying minutes on May 6.

  7. For those who persist in thinking the 2008 event was a normal albeit nasty recession, buddy larsen is educating a new team at the Belmont Straw Men thread.

    I can't say, but buddy (and others) make a persuasive case for the collusion culminating in the 2008 crash.

    I daresay the truth is somewhere in between (the long road paved by securitization was likely an oops on the part of an industry that is pure energy and speed but the more condensed time frame of unraveling starting with Bear Sterns, LEH, and AIG was likely carefully orchestrated) but I expect buddy and his Belmont buds would sneer at my naivete.

    It's fascinating stuff.

  8. For the first time in my life I am invested in corp junk and small caps.

    ROI 10% and 11% YTD.

    The year isn't over but that's not peanuts.

  9. I'd also like to see a 10-yr bar for global equity growth.