“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Sunday, December 23, 2007

We Never Learn

Why can't we just stay out of it?

Fund the Palestinians? Bad Idea
By Daniel Pipes
Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Lavishing funds on Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority to achieve peace has been a mainstay of Western, including Israeli, policy since Hamas seized Gaza in June. But this open spigot has counterproductive results and urgently must be stopped.

Some background: Paul Morro of the Congressional Research Service reports that, in 2006, the European Union and its member states gave US$815 million to the Palestinian Authority, while the United States sent it $468 million. When other donors are included, the total receipts come to about $1.5 billion.

The windfall keeps growing. President George W. Bush requested a $410 million supplement in October, beyond a $77 million donation earlier in the year. The State Department justifies this lordly sum on the grounds that it "supports a critical and immediate need to support a new Palestinian Authority (PA) government that both the U.S. and Israel view as a true ally for peace." At a recent hearing, Gary Ackerman, chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, endorsed the supplemental donation.

Not content with spending taxpayer money, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice launched a "U.S.-Palestinian Public Private Partnership" on Dec. 3, involving financial heavyweights such as Sandy Weill and Lester Crown, to fund, as Rice put it, "projects that reach young Palestinians directly, that prepare them for responsibilities of citizenship and leadership can have an enormous, positive impact."

One report suggests the European Union has funneled nearly $2.5 billion to the Palestinians this year.

Looking ahead, Abbas announced a goal to collect pledges of $5.8 billion in aid for a three-year period, 2008-10, at the "Donors' Conference for the Palestinian Authority" attended by over ninety states on Monday in Paris. (Using the best population estimate of 1.35 million Palestinians on the West Bank, this comes to a staggering amount of money: per capita, over $1,400 per year, or about what an Egyptian earns annually.) Endorsed by the Israeli government, Abbas immediately raised nearly that amount for 2008 at the donors' conference.

Well, it's a bargain if it works, right? A few billion to end a dangerous, century-old conflict – it's actually a steal.

But innovative research by Steven Stotsky, a research analyst for the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America (CAMERA) finds that an influx of money to the Palestinians has had the opposite effect historically. Relying on World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and other official statistics, Stotsky compares two figures since 1999: budgetary support aid provided annually to the Palestinian Authority and the number of Palestinian homicides annually (including both criminal and terrorist activities, and both Israeli and Palestinian victims). Graphed together, the two figures show an uncanny echo:

The correlation is even clearer when the aid of one year is superimposed on the homicides of a year later:

In brief, each $1.25 million or so of budgetary support aid translates into a death within the year. As Stotsky notes, "These statistics do not mean that foreign aid causes violence; but they do raise questions about the effectiveness of using foreign donations to promote moderation and combat terrorism."

The Palestinian record fits a broader pattern, as noted by Jean-Paul Azam and Alexandra Delacroix in a 2006 article, "Aid and the Delegated Fight Against Terrorism." They found "a pretty robust empirical result showing that the supply of terrorist activity by any country is positively correlated with the amount of foreign aid received by that country" – i.e., the more foreign aid, the more terrorism.

If these studies run exactly counter to the conventional supposition that poverty, unemployment, repression, "occupation," and malaise drive Palestinians to lethal violence, they do confirm my long-standing argument about Palestinian exhilaration being the problem. The better funded Palestinians are, the stronger they become, and the more inspired to take up arms.

A topsy-turvy understanding of war economics has prevailed in Israel since the Oslo negotiations began in 1993. Rather than deprive their Palestinian enemies of resources, Israelis have been following Shimon Peres's mystical musings, and especially his 1993 tome, The New Middle East, to empower them economically. As I wrote in 2001, this "is tantamount to sending the enemy resources while fighting is still under way – not a hugely bright idea."

Rather than further funding Palestinian bellicosity, Western states, starting with Israel, should cut off all funds to the Palestinian Authority.


  1. I willing to bet 25 virtual holiday bucks there's nobody at the Bar in favor of funding the Palestinians.

  2. With our money, I mean. With USA dollars. What the Saudis do is up to them.

  3. Been out of touch for awhile. Tancredo endorse anybody yet?

  4. Daniel Pipes, he's starting to color outside the lines. Soon no one will consider him "serious"

    What is he even doing saying:
    A topsy-turvy understanding of war economics has prevailed ...

    War economics, what could he be speaking of, war economics ...

    There is no war, plain as day.
    Elections in Palistine prove that.
    The Israeli turning over the Gaza sector of the Levant, further proof of a lack of hostilities with the Palistinians.

    mat used to agree with me, that Abbas and Hamas were really one and the same. Money being fungible, the World Bank funding projects in Iran, while the centrifuges spin, unacceptably.

    No harm, no foul

    I think your virtual bucks are safe, bob

    No worries, mate.

  5. One may argue that Israeli maps also comprise all the land from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River including its post-June 1967 acquisition of Judea and Samaria, which was administered by Jordan from 1948 - 1967.

    However, the current representation of Israel’s borders is correct for several reasons:

    # Israel won Judea and Samaria in a defensive war after repeated warnings to Jordan not to attack.

    # Except for the 19 years of Jordanian rule from 1948 – 1967, Judea and Samaria did not belong to any other state.

    # It would be impossible to draw a map that includes a Palestinian state next to Israel because the amount of land Israel may choose to give up in order to forge a peace deal with the Palestinians is not known as final borders have not been discussed.

    Mandatory Palestine

  6. You depundit, Sam. Come pick it up, bring tow truck.

  7. The other option, sam, one State with "right of return" to all those the UN considers Palistinian refugees.
    One man, one vote, one time.
    UN supervised

    Which would hurt.

    Or a war that eliminated the Israelis or the Palistinians or both

    Which would really hurt, worse.

  8. Huckabee, Hagee Piss Off The Catholics

    In a nation as diverse as ours, the best policy when running for office, at least at the national level, is probably to be a kind of fuzzy, good natured generic, like Reagan. Ride a horse, salute the flag, crack a joke, that kind of thing.

  9. Religion is becoming invasive in politics, post 9-11.

    The culmination of Governmental mis-information coming home to roost. The folk knowing that there is a religious component to the War on Terror, despite Presidental protestations otherwise.

    We're seeing the unintended consequences of those decisions.

  10. Ha! I know what I'm getting for Christmas! I looked in the sack. A mug warmer, and a key finder! My coffee is always lukewarm, and I always lose my keys. O, what a lucky man I am!

  11. And when I get too old to drive, she can hook the keys to my belt, and find me when I wander off down the street! That's decades from now, however.

    I know what's going to happen though. I'll lose the keyfinder.

  12. Charlie Wilson's War is left wing propaganda.

    Reagan Officials claim that "Charlie Wilson's War" has "left-wing" slant
    Conservative officials who served in the Reagan administration are upset by the left-wing slant of the new movie about the covert action program that helped Afghan guerrillas defeat the Soviet army during the 1980s.

    "Charlie Wilson's War," out Friday, is based on a book about former Rep. Charles Wilson, Texas Democrat, known widely on Capitol Hill during his tenure as "Good Time Charlie" and who helped fund the semi-secret war that ultimately helped fell the Soviet Union.

    The Reagan-era officials said the movie promotes the left-wing myth that the CIA-led operation funded Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda and ultimately produced the attacks of September 11, 2001.

    Bin Laden, the officials said, never got CIA funding or weapons, and was not directly involved in Islamist extremist activities until years after the Afghan operation ended after the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989. . . .

    The officials blamed the anti-Reagan slant of the film on the movie's screenwriter, Aaron Sorkin, the Hollywood liberal who regularly attacked conservatives on his television drama "The West Wing," also known as "The Left Wing" because of its liberal bias.

  13. What you need, Bob is a keyfinderfinder.

  14. Kosovo is proposing to no longer be part of Serbia since the Albanians migrated there and have become the majority, a de facto political change. The Russians Slavs and Serbs object. The US sides with the Muslim Albanians. I do not believe it is any of our business.

    The Palestinians, like the Serbs, do not want to accept the reality that European Jews have migrated, legally, and assert their rights as the majority in Israel. The US has been involved with this mess from 1948 until 2007, fifty seven years.

    In 1949 Israel had exports of $41 million. Today Israel has a GDP of $185 billion. Israel does not need once cent of US aid.

    Almost all of the US aid was wasted on Israeli socialists creating money-losing welfare schemes, absurdly overpaid government employees, and with no increase in US or Israeli security. It stifled innovation as all government welfare does. If US domestic spending on US welfare programs, say the "war on poverty," had a deleterious affect on certain aspects of the US population, as it certainly has, then it has in Israel, Palestine and Egypt.

    (Look at Puerto Rico, where 24% of the population receives some form of US welfare.)

    Without US aid, Israel would probably have a GDP of $300 billion and the Palestinians and Israelis would have long ago accommodated each other. I do not believe it is any of our business.

    Ipso facto, Kosovo, Serbia, Palestine, Israel, Puerto Rico and the US would all be better off if we minded our own business.

    We never learn.

  15. That's not true, bob.

    Well, the Reagan guys may not have liked the film, it did not heap praise upon them, but it did not promote the idea that the US funded Osama.

    It did provide about a minute or two of post Soviet Afghanistan, the fact that we abandoned the country after the Soviets bugged out.

    Which seems an accurate historical description. Wilson could not get reconstruction funding, afterwards, per the film.

    The graphic at the very end
    "We fucked up the end game"
    With Wilson's name signed below.

    It did tie 9-11 to Afghanistan. Accurately, I think Afghanistan was, tied in to 9-11.

    It portrays a CIA hierarchy that did not want to engage, did not want to provide the Stingers, for fear the Soviets would get one, on the ground.

    It makes Wilson the hero, battling the staus que of DC.

    It'll be on cable in September/October, I'd bet. Or even acceralated release, to get in on the networks by then.

    Could change the tone of the Democrats being "soft" on security storyline, if enough folk see it.

  16. You'll be sure of that, sam, when he cannot find the keys to that Trans Am.

  17. Four-fifths of viewers for "Charlie Wilson's War" were 30 and older, an audience that does not necessarily rush out to catch films in the first few days. Universal is counting on the film's good reviews and word-of-mouth to gradually build the audience.

    "Everyone knew going in this was a genre that doesn't pop big numbers on opening weekend," said Universal marketing and distribution executive Adam Fogelson. "We wanted to be the sophisticated commercial option for grown-ups."

    Treasure #1

  18. I think my wife was the youngest person at the Friday 10:30AM showing. I was a close second.

  19. It was a pretty good movie, wife really liked it.

    Felt really good when they dropped the first three Hinds, in spite of the CIA Station Chief in Pakistan.

    Bad guys lose
    Good Guys Win!!!

  20. It is not an anti-Islam film,
    by any means.

  21. If he's been libeled by Brian McNamee and then had that libel repeated and authenticated by George Mitchell's repetition, he has every right to be angry.

  22. Wonder who whispers this shit in her ear?

  23. I'll go to Charlie Wilson's War. The wife just got back from I Am Legend, and I'm not sure if I can recommend it, or not. The vampires you see, are folk who got the virus, but not everybody gets the virus, evidently it's a warm weather virus, or something, and there are folk up in New England who are making out ok, and the mystery woman from South America takes the anitdote that Will Smith brews up in his basement and does something with it, and the grass is growing and the deer running around in Manhattan, and stuff like that.

  24. "You put him in hot water, it jumps right out, you put him in cold water and turn up the heat - he's a goner," she said. "We've got to figure out how were going to not be the frog in the cold water anymore."

    Hillary Clinton, on the campaign trail. An expert on amphibians, reptiles, frogs.

  25. The Roh administration agreed with the U.S. to dismantle Combined Forces Command in 2012. The U.S., which had been waiting for an opportunity to cut its military spending on Korea, was more than happy to accept the request.

    And during Lee’s term, the U.S. will decrease the number of its overseas troops and reconfigure them in the name of boosting “strategic flexibility.” It would be foolish and irresponsible for us to let that happen while the North Korean nuclear threat remains.

    The president elect must have alternative measures ready.

    Not Simple

  26. There is no war, plain as day.
    Elections in Palistine prove that.
    The Israeli turning over the Gaza sector of the Levant, further proof of a lack of hostilities with the Palistinians.

    dear dessert...

    there is war, what is happing is now a concerted effort to allow israel to fight another real "battle" with the palestine brigade.

    In the recent past the argument was that it was an "unfair" fight..

    the battle that is shaping up will be the 1st real military battle of the NEWLY minted "Palestinian" army, funded by everyone and this will be the final installment of the arab - israeli conflict...

    some call this the anti-phased response, in response to arafat's place of phased victory. By GIVING the palio the right and ability and cash to build an army they can choose to embrace peace or again, select war...

    This next series of battles have been mis-classified as wars...

    it is the same war, different battles for 100 years...

    but now, the paios have a multi-BILLION dollar annual budget and more... and now... they will get their asses kicked...

    and in the end the palios, just like nasser, arafat and hezbollah will claim VICTORY! and thus, the jackass of a people, who could have not squandered billions and not of caused so many millions of people to suffer will have a state on a tiny sliver of what could have been if not such greedy, uncompromising pricks.

    but it is war... sadly israel is not europe of the usa and has not up til now, gone crazy on their asses as ANY OTHER NATION would have. thus setting up the armed wings of hamas and fatah, giving them transports, arms and allow thousands of tons of rockets and other war product will in effect give the the "allah" is on my side" bullshit and WILL infact attack israel...

  27. Arabic is the finest and most noble language in the world. This represents my opinion as a writer who only speaks Arabic, English, and a little French.

    Although I have spent my life learning Arabic, I still have much to learn. In spite of this, the happiest hours of the day are spent with a good companion, i.e. a book.

    My favorite book is usually an old Arabic book. Nevertheless, I find myself compelled to read political books, which I see as an onerous task, and I ask God not to forgive those who are behind it.

    Where do we Stand now?

  28. The 25,000 US troops are a target for the NorKs, more than a deterent to them. In case the US were to use a pre-emptive miltary option against the NorK nuclear capacity.

    The US troops are not an offensive force on the Korean Pennisula, but a now unneeded trip wire.

    A legitimate miltary target in the middle of Seoul.

    Besides the Koreans have signed onto that nuclear agreement with Team43. No worries.

  29. So the Israelis are setting the Palis up, wi"o".

    To create an excuse to push them into the sea, or into Egypt?

  30. Among Democrats, 42 percent indicated illegal immigration has not been a negative influence on the country. But a plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, indicated they believe that border security should be a higher priority than dealing with those already living the country illegally.

    A majority of Democratic voters oppose granting illegal immigrants driver's licenses, including a plurality of supporters of Obama, who supports the idea.

    Obama and Edwards, neither of whom accept campaign contributions from federal lobbyists or political action committees, saw that position rewarded by Democratic voters. Eighty-four percent of those surveyed said that whether a candidate accepted PAC and lobbyist money was "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote.

    Illegal Immigration ok

  31. We promised the Saudis. Something about oil, or schmoil, or doilboil, or crab boil - I forget. :)

  32. So the Israelis are setting the Palis up, wi"o".

    To create an excuse to push them into the sea, or into Egypt?

    dear rat you missed my point

    israel and everyone is setting them up to fight and loose and then declare VICTORY and have a tiny sliver of a state, not from a peace process but from war!

  33. That is why I asked to be enlightened, as to your theme.

    Unless the civilian population is decimated, what difference will how much dirt they have make?

    Israel held all of Gaza for years, did not "settle" a thing. They still out bred the Israelis.

  34. Rufus, you better take a closer look at Hillary. She may be the 'energy president' you're looking for. I recall you considered her earlier. And,we now find, she knows how to cook frogs' legs.

  35. One additional point: Petraeus's counterinsurgency stands out not just for its conceptual ambition and the skill of its execution but for its humanity. There were those who argued that the U.S. military could not succeed in counterinsurgency because Americans were not tough and bloodthirsty enough.

    They said that brutality was essential in subduing insurgents and our humanity would be our downfall.

    They were wrong. The counterinsurgency campaign of 2007 was probably the most precise, discriminate, and humane military operation ever undertaken on such a scale.

    Man of the Year

  36. After ourselves, Petraeus was my choice for 'Man of the Year'.

  37. "You put him in hot water, it jumps right out, you put him in cold water and turn up the heat - he's a goner," she said. "We've got to figure out how were going to not be the frog in the cold water anymore." "

    This is received Scientific Wisdom AlBobAl, shame on your shame!

    "he's a goner"

    ...and she talks like us Okies, that's gotta be good:

    She's one of us!

    Ebony, and Ivory...

  38. Aloha Doug for Man of the Year!

  39. The "Surge" in Baghdad and it's success was dependent on the large numbers of Iraqi troops that were deployeed, along with the US troops. Moving into local garrisons and out of the mega-bases.

    Building on the MITT process of joint operations.

    The Anbar Awakening, seperate from the Surge and consisted of transfering responsibility to local Iraqi authorities, tribal leaders. Which was a 180 degree change in strategic policy.

    But that "solution" is just an interim, that will likely explode, sometime after December 2008.

    If we do not disarm those Sunni militias, those that are now Awake, the Central Government will try to. After the US no longer has occupation authority, Dec 2008, but before the Iraqi elections scheduled for late '09.

    Especially if Ms Clinton or Mr Obama is victorious in November 2008. Or the Dems hold a real, functional, majority in the Senate.

  40. Nuke the Shia Areas if they do.

  41. Fred's Christmas Ad
    Every campaign has to have one. Hillary's had a gift for everyone under the tree, and now low gas prices to boot!

  42. I get man of the year for giving good Nukeie.

  43. Britain, bowing to intense public pressure, is finally going to release its secret UFO files.

    Promises to be 'interesting reading' with no answer to the mystery.

  44. "“I’ve got a silly hat rule,” Thompson said.

    In point of fact, the “silly” hat was the one Chief McKenzie wore to fires and I am guessing none of the firefighters in attendance considered it particularly silly, but Thompson was not going to put it on. He just stood there holding it and staring at it.

    To save the moment, Jeri Thompson took the hat from her husband’s hands and put it on her head.

    “You look cute,” Thompson said to her. She did.

    Jeri took off the hat and McKenzie led the Thompsons over to a fire truck.

    The chief invited Thompson to climb up behind the wheel, but Thompson said, “Naw, this is fine.” And he stood there looking at the fire truck.

    Jeri once again saved the moment by engaging the chief in some actual conversation.

    “How many people do you serve?” she asked.

    “About 10,000,” Chief McKenzie said.

    Thompson walked away from the fire truck, posed for a picture or two and the event was over. He and his entourage got on his bus and roared out of town. "

  45. In Extremis, we'll just have to watch Jeri take over.

  46. Another vote for Frederick Kagan and Gen David Petraeus.

  47. Must be nice, having a trophy wife with brains

  48. And then to top it off came Sen. Joe Lieberman, Al Gore's Democratic running mate for vice president in 2000, now newly minted as McCain's endorser. And Al From, the head of the Democratic Leadership Council and longtime defender of all things Lieberman, said he was "very saddened" that his man would endorse a -- gulp -- Republican.

    That's like Roy Rogers saying he was "saddened" to discover that Trigger was a mule.

    It's going to be a crazy Christmas.

    Weird Race

  49. Nice to have a trophy wife with brains, and a crazy Christmas.

  50. Another shocking revelation:

    Billions In Aid To Pakistan Was Wasted, Officials Assert

    By David Rohde, Carlotta Gall, Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger Published: December 24, 2007

    ISLAMABAD, Pakistan: After the United States has spent more than $5 billion in a largely failed effort to bolster the Pakistani military effort against militants from Al Qaeda and the Taliban, some American officials now acknowledge that there were too few controls over how the money was spent, and that the strategy to improve the Pakistani military needs to be completely revamped.

    In interviews in Islamabad and Washington, Bush administration and military officials said they believed that much of the American money was not making its way to frontline Pakistani units. Money has been diverted to help finance weapons systems designed to counter India, not Al Qaeda or the Taliban, the officials said, adding that the United States has paid tens of millions of dollars in inflated Pakistani reimbursement claims for fuel, ammunition and other costs.

  51. Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto accused President Pervez Musharraf's government on Sunday of failing to crush militants in the Islamic nation, just days after a suicide bombing killed at least 50 people during a prayer service in a mosque.


    The government said Sunday it would push ahead with its fight against al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, and would work to ensure a peaceful election campaign despite a suicide bombing which killed 56 people during prayers in a mosque days earlier.


    Bhutto escaped two suicide attacks in October, when she returned to her country after eight years in exile.

    January Elections

  52. The Palestinians need peace as well as aid - TelegraphThis view is strongly echoed by human-rights groups, such as Oxfam, which point out that millions of dollars of aid to the Palestinians is being wasted ... - 93k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

    Canadian aid to Palestinians must no longer perpetuate hatred ...Re: Another $300 million wasted! - Joseph Berger 08:12:53 2007/12/19 (0). Re: Canadian aid to Palestinians must no longer perpetuate hatred, ... - 27k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

    Nation & World | $7.4B in aid pledged for Palestinians | Seattle ...The United States pledged $150 million in direct aid for the moderate ... billion to the Palestinians over the past decade only to see large amounts wasted ... - 43k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

    Over a million euros a month of European aid to Palestine wasted ...Over a million euros a month of European aid to Palestine wasted in bank ... that more than a million euros of European Union aid for Palestinians is being ...!OpenDocument - 6k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

    The World from Berlin: Cash for Palestinians Wasted Without ...Cash for Palestinians Wasted Without Progress on Peace Talks ... and be more than just collective welfare aid, if the proper political framework is put in ...,1518,524091,00.html - Similar pages - Note this

    Palestinians raise $7.4B in recovery aid - Yahoo! News... to the Palestinians over the past decade only to see large amounts wasted. ... Security Council hails donors' aid pledge to Palestinians AFP, 1 hour, ... - 52k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this

    OxFam; Canada; United States; Europe; Germany--

    There were 87,700 more entries unde 'aid to Palestinians wasted', at Google.

  53. desert rat said...
    Must be nice, having a trophy wife with brains

    yes it is...

    you were talking to me?

  54. Shirley Bassey sings Goldfinger

    Says it's not England anymore, nobody speaks English.

    You got one too, WiO? Congrats.

  55. Too good to be true:

  56. Here is a comparison of the current farm program rates with the new proposals in congress--from Idaho Grain Magazine(a producers magazine)

    Wheat--current target $3.92 Senate target $4.15 House target $4.20

    Corn--current target$2.63 Senate target $2.63 House target $2.63

    Soybeans current target $5.80 Senate target $6.00 House target $6.10

    Wheat $0.52
    Corn $0.28
    Soybeans $0.44

  57. Top wheat producers:

    1. China
    2. India
    3. US


  58. Kogan's Cadenza:

  59. Jerry Springer Generation:
    Write a book about what a fucking loser you are:
    "In House to House: An Epic Memoir of War, Staff Sergeant David Bellavia—a gung-ho supporter of the Iraq war—casually recounts how in 2004, while his platoon was on just its second patrol in Iraq,

    a civilian candy truck tried to merge with a column of our armored vehicles, only to get run over and squashed. The occupants were smashed beyond recognition. Our first sight of death was a man and his wife both ripped open and dismembered, their intestines strewn across shattered boxes of candy bars.
    The entire platoon hadn't eaten for twenty-four hours. We stopped, and as we stood guard around the wreckage, we grew increasingly hungry. Finally, I stole a few nibbles from one of the cleaner candy bars. Others wiped away the gore and fuel from the wrappers and joined me.
    This incident is notable mainly for the fact that the platoon stopped; from the many accounts I have read of the Iraq war, when a US convoy runs over a car, it usually just keeps going."
    Like 24 hours is a big enough deal to do that, and when you do, tell the World.

  60. Kogan's Cantabile:

  61. News of this report appears on the Israeli websites today.


  62. Mutual Assured Destruction,
    not much odd about that.
    We have lived with that threat, in the US and Russia, for fifty plus years now.

    Mr Cordesman states the obvious, even with Israel's advantages in throw wieght and it's ability to kill the Persians at a ten to one advantage ratio, or more, that makes little difference in the long run.

    The outcome would be so costly to both sides, however, any such advantage would little or no practical value. It is unclear that either nation could reconstitute itself on anything like a prewar basis, if at all.

    Peace through superior firepower just not enough to make for successful long term strategic viability. Not for City-States of limited geographic reach and small populations.

    Perhaps Mr Cordesman is trying to explain to Israelis that is not a real option, for them. As if they did not already know such a thing, but maybe there are some Israeli that are in denial.

    This report could be for them.

    The Chairman thought the Chinese could absorb a nuclear exchange, then keep on keepin' on.

    Perhaps the Iranians feel as the Chairman did, and the Israeli are trying to communicate that it is a false hope, that Iran would not survive.
    But from the quotes I've read from the Ayotollah K, they know that already, too.

    So maybe it is odd, that he reports the obvious

  63. i was thinking more about odd as relating to the timing as it is a month old report

    odd also that it even appeared

    doesn't make for light reading

  64. The report is not "news" in the MSM sense. So if it is now getting a wide distribution, on Israeli web sites, there is a political component to that.

    I have little knowledge of internal Israeli politics, so who could gain or who would be disadvantaged, or even which groups or Parties, it's all in a fog, for me.

    But that it is some how political seems clear. An Israeli NIE so to speak, from a reliable and trusted source.

    Would that be odd, in Israeli politics?

  65. elijah said...
    News of this report appears on the Israeli websites today.


    Not really, things like this have been discussed for decades within our circles.

    the fact? most israelis have had years to build and get used to having secure bomb shelters in their homes...

    from poison gas, to nuke fall out most israeli accept and believe (as do most jews around the world with a brain) that shit can happen...

    the real question is:

    does the arab/islamic world understand that in a nanosecond the arab world could be vaporized?

    the palios, hezbooah,iran, syria etc still dont get it that israel HOLDS it's guns back...

    the gaza question could be solved in 3 days...

    step one: start random bombing of all palestinian lands close to the border..

    step two: flatten all palestinian border restraints with egypt.

    step three: bomb all power stations, water supplies and start to carpet bomb closer into population centers (while dropping leaflets telling them to flee to the egyptian border)

    yep it would be a hellaof migration

    one could actually say the world's biggest refugee situation, (oh they say that already) then, continue to bomb gaza of all life and pull a hama on it...

    then, when the dust settles, you will have about 1.1 million refugees squatting in the desert of sinai (brings to mind the kurds fleeing saddam) and the world can come and lend a hand (instead of GIVING 7 BILLION DOLLARS) and provide food, water and tents...

    and thus solving the late great gaza situation...

    merry christmas!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  66. But that nano second now flys both ways, wi"o". Mr Cordesman's point, perhaps.

    What sense is it to kill 'em all, if all yours are dead, too?
    Is that success or victory?

    To drive those in Gaza into Egypt, an option that is old and been rejected, before.

    But one side or the other, or both, will have to go.
    Before there is Peace on Earth.

    Good Will Towards Men.

    Neither side considering the "other" to be deserving.

  67. desert rat said...
    But that nano second now flys both ways, wi"o". Mr Cordesman's point, perhaps.

    No, Israel still could now (and anytime in the last 20 years done so) and all the persians and arabs COULD do to israel they have already tried.

    DR: What sense is it to kill 'em all, if all yours are dead, too?
    Is that success or victory?

    I'd say success, but most arabs and iranians LIVE in their own countries, today only 40% of the worlds jews are "in" israel, most of us are scattered throughout the world. this is not the 1st time we have been threatened with genocide DR. BY THESE EXACT PEOPLE

    DR: To drive those in Gaza into Egypt, an option that is old and been rejected, before.

    sometimes what is old is new again.... and does not advocate genocide...

    dr: But one side or the other, or both, will have to go.
    Before there is Peace on Earth.

    then expand that.... there is islam and "non-islam". israel just the canary in the mine. dont try to sit there as somehow this battle is not of your concern.

    DR : Neither side considering the "other" to be deserving.

    to which that earns you my famous FUCK YOU...

    How dare you even suggest that?

    Israel is not the one calling for the death of millions? Hamas & fatah BOTh do not accept israel's right to be... Iran, Syria and assorted others within the arab league have for DECADES called for israel's erasure.... so dont give me that crap....

    If israel had wished to USE it's arsenal she COULD at any moment since 1966 simply nuked the problem, but has chosen NOT to.

    The MOMENT Iran or the Palios COULD destroy israel they WOULD

    Merry Christmas and remember Jesus was a ZIONIST long before he ever got promoted (by gentiles) to Be the PROMISED JEWISH MESSIAH...

    Sorry no "Palestine" in the Torah....

  68. As a "spokesman" of sorts, you just proposed making refugees out of 1.1 million Palistinians

    They not deserving of good will, in your opinion.

    When those evil mussulmen come to Phoenix to take over, we'll handle it.

    Sic our Mexican mercenaries on 'em.

  69. desert rat said...
    As a "spokesman" of sorts, you just proposed making refugees out of 1.1 million Palistinians

    They not deserving of good will, in your opinion.

    as a RESPONSE to the Democratic elected government of Hamasistan's 2700 ROCKETS fired From GAZA into Israel in the last 12 months...

    hamas seeks the genocide of israel

    I seek the making of the refugees of gaza into refugees...


    israel LEFT gaza 2 years ago, all the palios made of it was a chance to destroy israel...

    so as a spokesperson of sorts, I advocate NOT genocide against those seeking my death

    but rather i seek their discomfort...


    hardly, just look to the world how they solve these issue...