Too bad for the liberals. Their diverse inclusive world vision occassionaly gets occluded when they catch a glimpse of reality. Despite her inter-racial marriage to the first black president, Hil learns that "blood" is thicker than water. Blacks know a brother when they see one and the twista-sista looks like Miss Anne. Too bad, I thought only whites were racially sensitive or is that insensitive?
More Blacks Lean Toward Obama
Shift in Allegiance From Clinton
Could Tighten Primaries in South
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN and VALERIE BAUERLEIN WSJ
December 14, 2007
Barack Obama's rising poll numbers among white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are having an unexpected ripple effect: Some black voters are switching their allegiance from Hillary Clinton and lining up behind him too. That could mean a further tightening of the Democratic presidential race, especially in southern states where blacks make up as many as half of Democratic primary voters.
The evidence of movement is most clear in South Carolina, site of the first primary where black votes figure to make a significant impact. There, four polls now show Illinois Sen. Obama with a lead among African-American voters for the Jan. 26 vote. As a result, the race in South Carolina has tightened, with some polls calling it a dead heat. A Rasmussen poll completed last week among South Carolina voters shows Mr. Obama now attracting 51% of the African-American vote, compared with 27% for Mrs. Clinton. A month ago, the candidates were tied among South Carolina black voters. Along with other polls, Rasmussen shows the two candidates essentially tied among all South Carolina voters.
Readings of the national black vote are less clear, but there are suggestions of movement there also. A Pew Research poll completed late last month shows New York Sen. Clinton and Mr. Obama virtually tied among black voters nationwide; two months ago Mrs. Clinton held a 12-point advantage. But an ABC News/Washington Post poll this week shows Mrs. Clinton still with a commanding lead among African-Americans nationwide.
"We're in a better position today than ever before, and a significant amount is due to the movement of African-American voters," says Steve Hildebrand, Mr. Obama's deputy campaign chairman.
But some analysts say Mrs. Clinton may do well because many of her black supporters are women and senior citizens who typically turn out for primaries in high numbers. "Hillary's voters are likely to vote," says Ron Lester, a Democratic pollster who has done extensive work polling African-Americans in the South. "That is going to help her hold her own."
The black vote is likely to be crucial in the cascade of primaries that follow Iowa and New Hampshire next year. Blacks make up almost half of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina and Georgia, one third in Virginia and a quarter in Tennessee. They also make up a fifth of primary voters in New York and 15% in Delaware and Ohio.
A big factor behind the rise in black support for Mr. Obama in South Carolina appears to be his popularity among white voters, though he is also expanding his outreach to black voters, and many of his views, especially his opposition to the Iraq war and support of social programs, resonate strongly with them.
"I see how [Obama's] charisma is among other races," says Ed Robinson, owner of Posh soul-food restaurant in downtown Florence, S.C. "He has been able to attract people from all races." Mr. Robinson said he strongly considered backing Mrs. Clinton but has now decided to back Mr. Obama.
"A lot of African-Americans in the South have questions about whether a black candidate can be elected president," says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which studies black issues. "Picking someone who is going to have a good chance to win is very much on their minds. If Obama shows he can win and that white voters can vote for him, there will be a lot of African-Americans who will be lining up to support him."
Mrs. Clinton initially built a big lead among black voters based in part on her husband's popularity. She also won a plethora of early endorsements from prominent black ministers and politicians, including civil-rights icon and Georgia Rep. John Lewis.
But now Mr. Obama is making a big push for the black vote. His political director in South Carolina is a popular 34-year-old black former college-football star at the University of South Carolina who lists "old-school hip hop" as his favorite music on his MySpace page. The Obama campaign began running TV commercials in the state in the past two weeks but has been airing radio spots on 36 African-American radio stations for three months.
The campaign says it has won the endorsement of more than 100 black ministers -- a response to Mrs. Clinton's early endorsement by dozens of black ministers -- and named "congregation captains" in churches to get out the vote. In South Carolina and elsewhere, Michelle Obama has emerged as a powerful advocate for her husband among blacks, especially among black women.
Mr. Obama is reaching out to blacks nationally as well. He recently took Rev. Al Sharpton, the former presidential candidate and black activist, out to a publicized lunch, and he held a fund-raiser at Harlem's Apollo Theater.
At the Apollo, black comedian Chris Rock rallied blacks to support Mr. Obama: "You'd be real embarrassed if he won and you wasn't down with it. You'd say, 'aw man, I can't call him now. I had that white lady. What was I thinking?' "
Mr. Obama has also benefited from a storm of publicity surrounding his rise in the Iowa polls and his appearance with Oprah Winfrey. His appearance with Ms. Winfrey in South Carolina drew more than 20,000 people, making it the largest political event in the state's history.
Nationally, far more African Americans cite Mr. Obama (51%) than Clinton (27%) as the candidate they have heard the most about recently, according to a poll released yesterday by Pew Research. In November, these figures were roughly the reverse, with 50% naming Mrs. Clinton and 15%, Mr. Obama. Whites were also more likely to name Mr. Obama this month compared with last month, but the increase wasn't as great -- 23% this month, up from 9% in November.
Billy D. Williams, a retired African-American interior decorator in South Carolina, supported Bill Clinton twice for president but says he is supporting Mr. Obama now because "it's time for a change. I'm not talking about a change like the Republicans slap on us, but I'm talking about a real change."
He says Mr. Obama's support of education is critical, because the predominantly black schools in rural eastern South Carolina are failing.
Mr. Obama's efforts to woo black voters could create challenges for a candidate who has so far minimized the issue of race.
"To some extent, white voters like Obama because he is nonracial and they are used to candidates like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton" who are more confrontational and emphasize black issues, says Mr. Lester, the pollster, who is African-American.
At the same time, says Mr. Lester, "when Obama goes south, he will have to make extra efforts to get black voters. How that will play with white voters will be very interesting."
But money is thicker than blood, and don't you forget it, as I learned to my horror during an eight year lawsuit with my cousins.ReplyDelete
I'm getting a big kick out of watching Obama give Billary a run for our money.ReplyDelete
Me and my brother against our cousin.ReplyDelete
Notes From the Global War on Terror
Published: December 14, 2007
During the presidential campaign, candidates from both parties will warn of the risk of another terrorist attack on this country. Americans should insist that they also explain how they will repair the damage President Bush has done to America’s intelligence-gathering capabilities in the name of fighting terrorism.
Congress certainly has not done the job. For six years, it stood by mutely or actively approved as President Bush’s team cooked the books to justify war, drew the nation’s electronic spies into illegal wiretapping and turned intelligence agents and uniformed soldiers into torturers at outlaw prisons."
and it goes on giving a tidy little summary.
I wish Thompson would flash some dash, Romney being unelectable. He'd be my second choice, Duncan Hunter and Tancredo being out of the running.ReplyDelete
Dennis Kucinich is rating a rock solid 1% over on the democrat side.
I thought they elected the Austrian to clean UP the fiscal mess in California. Those people just can't balance a checkbook.ReplyDelete
While in Idaho we have perpetual surpluses, and a rainy day fund.
Yep, the tribes are restless.ReplyDelete
And it's just not fair.
The Baptist evangelicals, going for one of their own.
The Blacks, those not imprisoned at a rate five times the Baptist evangelicals, going for one of their own, too.
Seems they are not satisfied by being represented by a middle aged white woman alumni from Wellesley College. Just not much of a cultural connection, there.
Ms Chelsey not a product of public schooling, creating an even further cultural divide.
Women are major players in Democratic Primaries, so that's a boost for Ms Clinton, on the Balkinization scale, but ...
Reid Wilson tells US that Obama is competitive amongst the ladies, as well.
"There's a real difference between the candidates in distinguishing their leadership style," said Selzer. Because of issues ranging from husband Bill Clinton's presidential library being slow to open records, to questionable fundraising practices from campaign associates like Norman Hsu, to the partisan tensions of the Clinton Administration, "people hearken back to a time when people felt like things weren't on the up and up," she said.
Obama, meanwhile, has focused much of his appeal to women on his personal story. "I know what it's like to be raised by a single mom who's trying to work and go to school and raise two kids at the same time, doesn't have any support from the father," he told the New York Times. "These are issues I'm passionate about." Michelle Obama has told audiences that her husband is "a man comfortable with strong women in his life."
Those statements are music to women voters' ears. Obama "comes across as authentic and a sympathetic figure who know women need a change," said Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, now a contributor to several news organizations and not associated with any campaign. "For now, he is believable, and women like honesty in a candidate."
Mr Reid Wilson goes on to say that the battle for the ladies is not finished, that the two are in a cat fight of epic proportions.
The battle for women's attention, if recent polls are to be believed, will likely determine the outcome of the presidential contest in Iowa. Perhaps most troubling for Clinton, while Obama's numbers among women have increased dramatically in Iowa, his support has seen a slower, but still marked, rise in New Hampshire. Clinton's numbers among women in New Hampshire, meanwhile, have seen a precipitous drop. The latest CNN/WMUR poll shows Clinton down ten points among women there in the last month, while her support has dropped only one point among men during the same period.
Obama now trails Clinton by just two percentage points in the latest RCP New Hampshire Average, and recent trends show he owns the momentum.
As women take a closer look at the race, it seems, Obama has been able to radically close the gender gap Clinton once enjoyed. The Clinton campaign is battling back hard, and whether they are successful may end up determining the outcome of this year's Democratic nomination. If Clinton wins, she will win with the support of women. If she loses, it will be because what many believed was her natural constituency abandoned her in the end.
Dick Morris thought first time female voters would put Ms Clinton over the top, in November. Though it's all to true that first timers don't caucus or vote in primaries.
She may never get to her natural base of support. I'd still be surprised, though, if she does not get the nomination. Pleasantly surprised, almost shocked.
It'd show me how little I really uderstand that part of the US electorate.
Then there is the Oprah factor, the majority of her audience being middle-aged white women, they may go for Obama, just to prove to themselves they're not racists.
Mr. Obama presents himself as a uniter. I remember about eight years ago another candidate who said that he was a "uniter, not a divider." From the get-go, the opposition painted that individual as the most divisive figure in modern history. Mr. Obama will face a like opposition.ReplyDelete
BTW: He (Obama)has already promised a justice department which will be "prosecuting civil rights cases." That may be divisive...
Obama's platitudes are wonderful to listen to but...
Remember the 2000 campaign? The word was that Bush lacked "gravitas". Will we hear the same from the media about Obama? Too soon to tell.
In 200, Dr. Dean was making great strides in Iowa too. Fearing that he was "unelectable" and would become the nominee, the Democrat machine turned on him. Will it happen to Obama? Most likely but the question lingers..."Is Hillary electable?"
The shortfall is not $10 billion, but more than $14 billion -- a 40 percent jump that would put it in orbit with some of the state's worst fiscal crisis, those who have met with The Austrian said.ReplyDelete
jeeze, is that for a single year? A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money, Wilbur Mills used to say.
Maybe not, whit, maybe not.ReplyDelete
He is fresh, he is an elected official in Ill. as no other past Black Democrat candidate for President ever was.
He has more of a natural base than Mr Dean. Vermont is not Chicago, Ill, not by a long shot.
The only reason he'd not be electable is color, which the Dems will be loathe to admit.
Even to themselves, as their vote will prove that they, as voters, see beyond race.
If anything, in the Primaries his ethnicity could be a plus, he being an "acceptable & articulate" blackman, who is not "threatening", as he is comfortable with strong women .
Mr Obama is many things, but he is no Howard Dean.
California is headed for financial meltdown and reminds me of New York City back in its near bankruptcy days.ReplyDelete
I think that Caleeforneeaah must hit "rock bottom" before the "healing" can begin.
Speaking of "rock bottom and healing" , I have a hunch that the downturn in construction has and will continue to cause many illegals to "crater financially" here. A prolonged down turn in the may send many unemployed back to their country of origin. Something to think about.
Born to a white American mother and a black Kenyan father, Obama grew up in culturally diverse surroundings. wikiReplyDelete
Why is Obama considered black? Just as reasonably he should be considered white.
If elected, he would be our first half black, half white President.
Honestly, if I was Obama, I might think hard about introducing a campaign theme of spanning the racial divide or some such slogan.
As to the Governator, bob, look to where they started and the structural problems in Cal-e-fornia, what with the legislature being what it is.ReplyDelete
2003-2004 California State Budget
This year, the State Budget debate was very disorganized. The Governor was extremely distracted by the recall election and the Legislature was overwhelmed by the size of the deficit. In January, the budget deficit was initially estimated to be $35 billion. The VLF trigger issue and the proposed mid-year cuts dominated the beginning of the year. An agreement on these two issues was finally negotiated in March, however, the slow recovery of the economy caused the deficit to climb to over $38.2 by the release of the May Revise.
So, by comparisson, Arnold is doing alright. When he went to the people, with Referendums to by pass the Dems and control the spending, he lost.
Bob is onto something. He has no slave legacy. He went to Harvard. Why play the tedious victim card? He could say he is an Ameryan.ReplyDelete
Ebony = Ivory = EvoryReplyDelete
Vote Evory in '08 Everyone's Candidate To Heal America!
Seriously, what's wrong with that?
The Ameryan might not go over so well, with those fearful for our national sovereignty :)ReplyDelete
Vote Bob-Vote Swedecan '08!ReplyDelete
The talking heads say that Oprah transcends race, so Obama could too.ReplyDelete
FOX just reported a Rasmussen poll that puts Huckabee in the lead in Florida, which was supposed to be Rudy's firewall State.
Huckabee vs Obama.
Wouldn't that be somethin'.
Open borders forever.
In State college tuition for illegals, that was the Huckabee position.ReplyDelete
Bobal: Why is Obama considered black? Just as reasonably he should be considered white.ReplyDelete
It's a time-honored Southern tradition. If you have one drop of black blood in ya, yer black.
Oh my oh my!ReplyDelete
We're ahead of the curve, again!
Here is another Howard Dean comparison:
By Rich Lowry
The ghost of Howard Dean haunts the pundit class. As soon as a candidate of either party spikes up in the polls, he is compared with Dean, who had a spectacular boomlet in the second half of 2003 only to deflate as soon as people began to vote in early 2004.
After many false prophecies, Dean circa 2008 has finally arrived. He is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Not because he will inevitably blow himself up in Iowa. But because, like Dean, his nomination would represent an act of suicide by his party.
Like Dean, Huckabee is an under-vetted former governor who is manifestly unprepared to be president of the United States. Like Dean, he is rising toward the top of polls in a crowded field based on his appeal to a particular niche of his party. As with Dean, his vulnerabilities in a general election are so screamingly obvious that it's hard to believe that primary voters, once they focus seriously on their choice, will nominate him.
DR: Huckabee vs Obama.ReplyDelete
Wouldn't that be somethin'.
What do you mean "vs" ?
HUCKABEE: "We haven’t had diplomatic relations with Iran in almost thirty years, my whole adult life. A lot of good it’s done us! Putting this in human terms, all of us know that when we stop talking to a parent or a sibling or a friend, it’s impossible to accomplish anything, impossible to resolve differences and move the relationship forward. The same is true for countries.
I mean opposed to each other, in competition for the Oval Office, as candidates from their respective Parties.ReplyDelete
What else would it mean?
Inflation is increasing faster than the target, soon perscription drugs and clothing will be factored out of the "core", they now becoming "volitale", too.
Let's continue this chat on the next post.ReplyDelete
Desert Rat: FOX just reported a Rasmussen poll that puts Huckabee in the lead in Florida, which was supposed to be Rudy's firewall State.ReplyDelete
The media is slobbering over the thought of two brokered conventions, but in their heart of hearts they want what Laura Ingram called a "Subway Series"...Hillary vs Rudy...if only they could nix these hix.