“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Interim Presidential Prediction, the Cancer Factor.

Looking at the Presidential contenders, it is difficult to see how Hillary does not capture the Democratic nomination. Bill Clinton wants to get back in the game. He will pull out all the stops and Obama is not going to make the cut.

The Republicans are not quite so clear. Fred Thompson, although interesting, does not look to me to have the staying power and the depth needed to win a national election. He is no Reagan. Reagan was governor of California and had been on the national scene for many Years. Fred Thompson is too old, has had cancer and IMO would be a weak candidate.

McCain- au revoir.

Romney seems to be a good competent man. The problem is that he looks to be too Republican and too corporate. I like him, but he will not pick up enough in the center and will not excite the Republican conservative right. He would beat Obama but not Clinton.

That leaves Guiliani. Rudy could win if he comes out early and declares that he is no boy scout, never was and never will be. He needs to come out swinging and stay on the offense, concede his weaknesses, and tells the American public to grow up and pick a leader who can lead. He has a proven record under severe conditions. He needs to laugh at those that criticize his personal life. Giuliani can pick up enough of the Northeastern states to overcome some red states going blue. He is also a cancer survivor and that returning would cost the Republicans the election if it returns.


  1. The GOP is $100 million off the fundraising pace, for the first time ever, since money has been a reported factor in Federal elections.

    Their base is disenchanted with the Boner in the White House.
    Senator Specter has called for a Special Prosecutor in the Gonzo Affair. He told the AG:

    "``Your credibility has been breached to the point of being actionable,'' said Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the panel's ranking Republican.

    The US of A's top cop and his lack of credibilty is actionable, quite a statement from a senior GOP Senator about the AG.

    Mr Romney would be fodder for the Democratic cannons. His religous cult not ready for prime time.

    Mr Thompson is a lot of show, not much go, from a resume standpoint. They'd cut him to pieces in the West and the Northeast.

    Only Rudy can win the Presidency for the GOP without winning Ohio, where Governor Taft has also decimated the GOP base with stories of corruption and feckless behaviour. Mike DeWine lost his seat there in '06 and George V. Voinovich has become one of the leading anti-Iraq Republicans.

    He does not even stand for reelection until 2010, and he has already abandoned the GOP's course. Wonder why?

    Without PA, the GOP loses in the Electoral College, without Rudy, the GOP stands no chance in PA. Simple as pie.

    For all his percieved faults, he is the only GOPer that would stand a chance against Hill & Bill.

    The Country wants to party, like its 1999, nothing is going to stop US, either. If the GOP does not present an acceptable purple alternative, they'll be gone.

    Just like with Ms Lohan, rational behaviour does get much play.

  2. read this eschange between Gono and Mr Schumer. My 16 year old daughter spins the truth better than Gonzo. His lies don't last the length of the exchange without being found out.

    It is a pitiful thing that he represents US Justice.

  3. In my dreams, I see Hillary going down to defeat. In my restless sleep, I see Hillary losing California, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Florida. In my waking reality I see Romney carrying Utah, Idaho. I see Hillary/Obama carrying the keys of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. I do see a Hillary who might be a lot tougher in foreign affairs than we give her credit for now. This is a bitch, remember, who has always gotten her way, and is used to it.

  4. I have voted in every election since I was old enough to do so (1973). I closely followed each candidates' positions on the issues. I always picked and voted for individuals I thought were above reproach, at least at the time of the election. AND it was always a conservative pick.

    I am completely put out with the talking heads on both sides of the aisle. They all, ALL! are a bunch of fake, poll watching bastards. There seems to be a "sleaze factor" with every single one of them.

    I never thought I would be thinking in these terms, but I doubt very seriously if I will ever vote in a U.S. election again.

    Please don't give me that "every vote counts" lecture, because it really doesnt, not any more.

    Tell me how much I owe, and leave me alone.

  5. Gag, you owe $19.95, same as all the rest of us USA suckers. That is without tax, you understand.