“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Interim Presidential Prediction, the Cancer Factor.
Looking at the Presidential contenders, it is difficult to see how Hillary does not capture the Democratic nomination. Bill Clinton wants to get back in the game. He will pull out all the stops and Obama is not going to make the cut.
The Republicans are not quite so clear. Fred Thompson, although interesting, does not look to me to have the staying power and the depth needed to win a national election. He is no Reagan. Reagan was governor of California and had been on the national scene for many Years. Fred Thompson is too old, has had cancer and IMO would be a weak candidate.
McCain- au revoir.
Romney seems to be a good competent man. The problem is that he looks to be too Republican and too corporate. I like him, but he will not pick up enough in the center and will not excite the Republican conservative right. He would beat Obama but not Clinton.
That leaves Guiliani. Rudy could win if he comes out early and declares that he is no boy scout, never was and never will be. He needs to come out swinging and stay on the offense, concede his weaknesses, and tells the American public to grow up and pick a leader who can lead. He has a proven record under severe conditions. He needs to laugh at those that criticize his personal life. Giuliani can pick up enough of the Northeastern states to overcome some red states going blue. He is also a cancer survivor and that returning would cost the Republicans the election if it returns.