The BBC Worldservice Thursday aired a report from Afghanistan. Their correspondent was taken by the Taliban for a "long drive through the desert in a convoy of new 4x4 SUV's guarded by confident men with Kalishnikovs and RPG's." The "Taliban Leader" was boasting that the locals welcomed him into the area and remarked that he could travel "anywhere day or night without even a pistol; something the Government couldn't do." The WorldService also reported that the Afghan National Army was reverting to it's corrupt, old ways of "shaking down" highway travelers at gunpoint. A Taliban leader told the BBC that trucking companies had hired the Taliban to take care of the problems with the Army. It was reported that civilian deaths from recent NATO actions are causing a backlash and another Taliban leader said that they had hundreds of volunteers for suicide attacks and warned of as many as a half-dozen martyrs striking simultaneously.
Other news reports indicate that the Taliban are settling in nicely next door in western Pakistan where they have in certain areas already formed an ad hoc government and are levying taxes on "petrol and six-month trucking permits."
Friday, it was reported that the Saudis are on elevated terror alert levels with oil facilities being the target. This reminded me of an article at I read earlier this week at Jamestown.org which warned that Islamic terrorists had determined that the Saudi Royals are not devout Muslims, are allied with America and will now be increasingly targeted.
From a the same website Michael Scheurer observes the growing crime rate in Afghanistan, the Musharraf brokered Taliban haven in Waziristan, and the traditional Afghan intolerance of foreign rule and concludes:
Overall, the increasing pace of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan suggests it is only a matter of time until the commanders of the U.S.-led coalition are faced with telling their political leaders that a decision must be made to either heavily reinforce coalition forces—it appears that more than the 120,000 men Moscow deployed to Afghanistan in the 1980s would be necessary—or begin preparations to withdraw from the country. If taken now, such a decision would be made in the context of polls showing popular opinion in Canada and Britain turning decidedly against continued participation in the Afghan war and media reports that France may begin to withdraw its special forces from Afghanistan next spring (Associated Press, October 15).
In these gloomy days, it is looking more probable that US led efforts to bring "freedom and democracy" to Iraq and Afghanistan will fail as the US public decides that the goal just isn't worth the effort.
It was a noble effort but was it doomed from the start? Was it "Mission Impossible" for the west to attempt such a change in the heart of the Islamic world? Was it a bridge too far?
Who woulda thot if you let enemy leaders run free, don't shoot until fired upon, catch and release, play whack-a-mole for years, leave bomb making and training sanctuaries untouched, make empty threat on top of empty threat, things don't go well.
ReplyDeletePathetic.
I hate to think we're that incompetent.
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan is a poor, hardscrabble box of rocks. Their only decent crop is Poppies. The only people who really want to rule Afghanistan is the Taliban.
ReplyDeleteIt don't bode well.
They Could grow Bio-energy crops (in fact, poppies would be a pretty good one,) but our people aren't sufficiently inspired to see that.
ReplyDeleteThere's got to be more to this.
ReplyDeleteIslam does not allow the charging of interest to fellow muslims. As a result, they are doomed to poverty and backwardness. You Cannot build any economy, much less a modern one, without a system of borrowing money and paying interest.
ReplyDeleteSince there is No Oil, and they can't develop commerce, and there are no more caravans to rob, they're doomed to living off of what a few poor farmers can make growing poppies. Tough.
Why do we care what "Islam" does or does not allow?
ReplyDeleteAre these "Islamic" prohibitions followed in Indonesia and Malaysia?
ReplyDeleteIf they are dirt poor, they can't pay taxes. Without taxes, the government cannot pay for an Army of any size or quality. They can't, in the end, rule.
ReplyDeleteWe're Not going to spend 50 Billion/yr Policing Afghanistan. To What End?
No, the ugly, rough and tumble suitor gets this ugly lady by default.
Indonesia, and Malysia aren't Afghani; they're Asian. That's an advantage. They're not completely eaten up with Islamism, yet. Commerce had a chance to get started.
ReplyDeleteProbably, more important, they have great climates for growing things, and they're completely accessible to Ocean Trade. Poor old Afghanistan is landlocked.
These people are illiterate and for the most part ignorant. Who's to say what is "Islamic" and what is not? And why are the Islamists a factor. Why are they not killed as soon as they're encountered?
ReplyDeleteMat, it's a population of twenty five Million, and they're one hundred percent Muslim. And, we're talking hard-core muslim. What're you going to do? Kill'em all?
ReplyDeleteLook, there's No Value in owning this real estate. It's worthless. The only reason it's a country is because nobody wanted it. There was no way to make a buck except charging tribute to the caravans. There are no more caravans. These are the poorest people on earth.
There just isn't any reason to stick around.
Clinton's mistake was not in "Not Occupying" Afghanistan, it was in not going in and killing Bin Laden and the boyz. They were the threat, not the Taliban.
We will probably, in the long run, let the "Government" rule Kabul and a couple of other cities, let the Taliban have the rest, and go in every now and then and have open season on AQ, or some variation thereof. We won't put it that way, of course; but we probably will.
The Soviets thought there might be value there. If it's of no value to us, why did we not let the Soviets do the killing for us there?
ReplyDeleteWe figured the Sov's were "Marching to the Sea." To a Warm-Water Port. Also, all that oil was next door. We didn't want them down there mucking around. Nothing good could come from it.
ReplyDeletePakistan and Iran would be next. Again, why did we not let the Soviets do the killing for us there?
ReplyDeleteOIL
ReplyDeleteRemember, no one cared a whit about "Islamism," then. It wasn't a player; But, oil was.
ReplyDeleteYou hit it; Iran. Oil. Next door, Iraq, back then they were looking at a 5 mil barrel/day potential. Then Kuwait, and KSA.
Besides, it was fun watching the Afghani's shoot down all those Russian helicopters.
Remember, there was no AQ. No Taliban. Only the U.S.S.R.. De Bear. Them were "Cold War" Times.
ReplyDeletePakistan and Iran have no oil. The oil is concentrated in the Gulf near Iraq. There are a lot of mountains to cross before you get there.
ReplyDeleteMat, Iran has a Lot of Oil. They're producing 4 million bbl/day, now. If they had had good management of their oil fields they would probaby be producing 6 million barrels.
ReplyDeleteBy area, 99% of Iran is without oil. The oil is concentrated on a strip of land 50-100km from Iraqi border.
ReplyDeleteI guess that's the part we were worried about, don't you?
ReplyDeleteNot if the Soviets aren't heading west.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we didn't lik'em being there, and it Was Fun watching those Hind helicopters hitting the dirt.
ReplyDeleteIs it more Fun watching our boys coming home in caskets?
ReplyDeleteWife's birthday party in full swing.
ReplyDeleteNo, that's why we won't try to occupy/police it, forever.
ReplyDeleteHabu, give her a "Happy Birthday" from the Bar.
ReplyDeleteHope you got her a new shotgun, or rifle for her birthday. I'm sure you did; we all know what a "Romantic" you are. :)
If we aren't killing Jihadis, why are we still there?
ReplyDeleteHabu1, what Rufus said.
I believe it was Rufus (it usually is on energy matters) that made the observation that if we reduced the import of oil by three percent per year, it would have a dramatic affect on oil prices and US dependence. That should be as high a priority as an strategic decision.
ReplyDeleteThe error in the WOT was that it did not stop there. Mission creep and the concept of nation building was the error. It was probably worth trying. It was useful in that it showed us something we did not know. It revealed the underground danger and incompatibility of Islam with the West.
We must learn from that. It is imperative that we restrict all further Islamic immigration. We need to look at it for what it is and not what we would like it to be. It cannot be treated as another form of Christianity. It is fundamentally a cult. It is worthy of a separate classification and needs to be treated as a hostile intruder.
By the way Whit, outstanding Post.
ReplyDeleteCain't figure out what to do with it, Mat. We can't just, "Beat it." Casting around for a "solution." We've still got Waziristan, and Bin Laden over there.
ReplyDeleteWe'll probably just "kill Jihadis" for another year, or two, until we figure it out.
What Deuce said.
ReplyDeleteEvery bit of it.
It was probably worth trying, but not in the way we went about it. We should have armed our militia(s) and let them loose to carve their dominion over Iraq.
ReplyDeleteYou know, we "Fuck up" a lot. But, damn if it doesn't always seem to work out, eventually. A lot of time not in the ways we expected.
ReplyDeleteFree Enterprise Capitalism, and Democracies are self-correcting systems.
Same with regard to Waziristan.
ReplyDeleteMore yutes, Obviously Altar boys on the way home.
ReplyDeleteWoman burned in France bus attack.
A bus in Blanc Mesnil, north of Paris, set on fire on 27 October
At least six buses have been set on fire in Parisian suburbs this week
A woman has been seriously burned and three others are suffering from smoke inhalation after youths set fire to a bus in the French city of Marseille.
A group of teenagers reportedly forced open the doors of the vehicle and threw flammable liquid inside before fleeing.
There have been several attacks on buses over the past week, coinciding with the one year anniversary of riots in poor suburbs across the country.
The riots were sparked by the deaths of two teenagers in the capital, Paris.
Minor skirmishes were reported in Paris on Saturday. An additional 4,000 officers had been deployed - six were injured and 47 people were arrested, according to the interior ministry.
At least six buses have been set on fire in suburbs around the capital this week in an upsurge of violence ahead of the anniversary of the riots.
Speaking of Energy (and we're always, in the final analysis, speaking of energy,) this is very interesting technology, And it Is for real.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it will be adopted in the anywhere near "near" future, but It's instructive.
I just came in in the middle of Salmon Rushdie (the Satanic Verses) on C Span. I've never read his books, nor heard him speak. I'm surprised, and impressed. He's low key, funny, intelligent, and articulate. If you get a chance, I think he's worth catching.
ReplyDeleteThe poor man. He misses Sept 10. I guess he values sleep, and pleasant dreams, more than reality. Because, you see, nothing really changed on Sept 11, except that we were awakened, and some people were killed.
ReplyDeleteHe knows Islam is fucked, but he still can't bring himself to say, "It's all Islam's fault."
He says the Kashmiri's were crushed between the two oppressive philosophies - Islamism, and Democracy. He finds equivalence. BS. He's just a whiner, good speaker though, who wrote a book.
Check out his wife and you won't feel sorry for him anymore.
ReplyDeletesharp said...
ReplyDeleteDid anyone read the interview at Opinion?
I usually skip the Kurdistan articles since they do not seem to be of much help, but I don't know how to interpret the "permits the Iraqi". Know the name? I assume he is not the only Sunni in the government.
---
Gee the guy agrees w/me:
Not killing the enemy causes problems.
There are red states--and then, there's Idaho. We used to say you could put all the democrats in the state government in a VW bus.
ReplyDeleteRonald Reagan used to talk about the Republican Golden Rule--never be critical of another republican. This has been violated all over the field here this year, beginning with, I think it was, the Speaker of our Idaho House, who called the republican nominee for US House of Representatives an 'idiot'. Trouble is, he may be right;anyway his opinion has been seconded by some others in our state government. Bill Sali, the candidate, can't really be 'an idiot', as he has a law license, but he is very abrasive. In the televised debate he violated the agreed to rules by reading a long opening statement when there was not to be any opening statements, and generally made a fool of himself.
The democrats have not been slow in taking advantage of this naming of the republican candidate as an 'idiot' by his fellow republicans.
Larry Grant, the dem., may win. The national republican party is putting money into the race in an effort--negative ads against Grant--to shore up Sali. So far, according to the latest report by the local media, the dems have not spent any money from the natiional headquarters here at all.
Sali would vote the way most people here would desire, but if he were to be in Congress for any length of time, I think he might outdo our old George Hansen, felon, as an embarrassment to us.
How this bodes for the national outlook I have no idea, Idaho being of no account politically, but we seem to have taken a good shot at our own heads here. We messed up when we let Sali win the primary over another fellow much better all around than he.
Things look grim all round.
Bob, one seat is a "Monster," this year. How did this guy Sali (?) get the nomination?
ReplyDeleteRuf--Got more votes, but not mine. :) He had some out of state money behind him, and better name recognition. His main opposition was a guy named Vasquez, who is a legal immigrant from long ago, left a limb in Vietnam and has been a county commissioner for years, a very good man. Really knows the illegal immigrant problem like the back of your hand. He is talking about trying for Senator Craig's Senate seat in two years. I hope he does. Also, there were some other candidates in the race the pulled votes away from Vasquez, so Sali sneaked in, but not by much.
ReplyDeleteYou know, it's starting to look to me that a weak Democratic opposition, and a couple of cycles of Dubya's coattails have led to an overabundance of inbred idiots representing the Pubs in the House.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching a few of the house debates, and some of these Republicans don't strike me as being the sharpest pencils in the pack.
I agree, Bob, it looks a little dicey from where I sit.
Well, Hawaii just ran the opening kick-off back 100 yards against the Idaho Vandals. Doug, you listening?
ReplyDeleteThe old Vandals I have come to know and love--but here there is no one else to root for--we are all captive fans.
Here's the website of the college kid that exposed a HUMONGOUS HOLE in the TSA screening process that could get Osama Bin Laden on your next flight.
ReplyDeleteIt's so easy a "Hillbilly" could do it.
Of course, the FBI, and Ed Markey want to arrest him. Surprise, Surprise.
They treat our lives like toilet paper, and then want to arrest the guy that exposes their idiocy.
H/T to Allen
Oh, here's The Link.
ReplyDeleteDrunk? Not Me.
Bobal,
ReplyDeleteDid he do a Hula in the Endzone?
I feel like a captive fan of Train Wreck USA.
ReplyDeleteDevoid of Common Sense.
Full of PC Bull.
Where's Zell when we need him?
You know Youths are dangerous, Rufus, Cmon!
ReplyDeleteI think the choices of "nation building" vs "kill them all" fail to capture the dilemmas we face in both Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in the easily mocked GWOT.
ReplyDeleteThe idea is to create local security that can sufficiently batten down the Islam that wont go away short of genocide. The kill em all option is never developed beyond how good and right it would feel to do that. Numbers are cited. They are called victory and the mechanism is left to be vindictively imagined.
The most valuable entreprise is to keep adapting in this fight and we know aircraft carriers and JDAMS are not universally useful for even the "kill em all" option. For one, we need to know where the bad guys are first. As the Taliban Funeral showed, we do need to depart from the nation-building enterprise and build local forces that would have deterred the Taliban from venturing into those parts, for they knew what awaited them.
It is silly to think we could deter terrorists with nukes. Rat's points on this ring true to me. But we can deter emaciated groups (i.e. once they suffer sufficient losses) from attempting to establish new safe havens. Or we can demonstrate the defeat of an upstart who presses his luck. Safe havens in the gap are one of the best asset they have.
We need to develop these local pockets of security to project a kind of divergently afghan or iraqi force that buds from some more preferred (US security-increasing) basis. Maybe the idea is to keep the cultural conflicts as ethnic and not civilizational.
Somalia, pre 9/11 afghanistan, the Sudan and Waziristan are what await the failure of these local security entreprises. They welcome the AQ entreprise of civilizational terror.
Democracy was probably putting the cart before the horse. Its a lesson learned. When Maliki is advocating to control the military, he may be seeking to exercise the nascent local capability and do so without the ridiculous ROE doug has alluded to. A testable something well soon get a read on...
I think its unfair to characterize the whole Afghanistan and Iraqi affairs as profound failures: it makes good headlines but I don't think it captures what is most valuable to accomplish over there.
I'd hope actual experts have an idea how to create these assets - police, military, humint etc - but how can anyone expect the creation of these assets from backwards superstituous rural folk to be simple?
The Taliban Funeral was a perfect example of where we once again failed to kill the enemy.
ReplyDeleteDo that enough times, all respect and thus all power to change things is lost.
Nite from P-Tater
ReplyDeleteHe sure hula-ed into the end zone- but I don't know what he did in the end-zone, but probably, knowing you Hawaiians. Listening on the radio.
ReplyDeleteDoug, when I was in high school I had a great job for a kid two summers driving cars from the docks into Aloha Motors, by the Alamoana(sp) Center in those days. Aloha Motors was the biggest Chev dealer in the world at the time, so they said. Can still remember the smell of the pineapples. Got to know all the muscle cars. Guy from here had bought into the dealership there.
For some reason I can't put this in context:
ReplyDeleteYou know Youths are dangerous, Rufus, Cmon!
Shit, I'm drunk. G'nite all, tell P'tater g'nite, Habu.
Scratch that - still in nation building mode
ReplyDeleteafghans are gonna love teh NATO casualties when they see what awaits them when we leave.
flaying, raping and other beastial unspeakables
One last thing. As regards ppab's link.
ReplyDeleteThe old joke was: "How do you know when a politician is lying?" Answer: "His lips are moving." Har Har Har
But, what would the threshold be for an Arab Politician? That's too scary to contemplate, no?
Now, G'nite.
ReplyDeleteRufus,
ReplyDeleteJust meant I'm glad FBI is protecting us from Dangerous Phd Candidate Youths of Suspicious "White" Ethnicity, w/possible Christian Connections.
Dangerous Youth for sure.
Those were the good old days, weren't they, Bobal?
ReplyDeleteLife was so simple and straightforward.
Ah, well.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWhit, Could you go into the post edit and see if you can see the next post? I cannot.See If you can correct it and delete the other. If you can please do so and take over till I hear from Blogger.. thanks
ReplyDeleteppab:
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the EB, have a complimentary drink on the house.
Just as Market Garden didn't decide WWII, Iraq and Afghanistan will not decide the outcome this time either. As 2164th, (deuce) said, we'll learn lessons and adjust.
Morning whit any lluck on your end?
ReplyDeleteThe leader of Nigeria's Muslim community is reported killed in a plane crash.
ReplyDeleteHabu! Habu, where are you?
rufus,
ReplyDeletere: Your 12:10 AM
Bingo!
That's what I've been trying to say. These guys are going to cause some serious damage to the Republican Party. With the challenges facing the country in the ever closer future, the country is going to need a non-Socialist (Marxian) alternative.
I don't think the Pubs are going to make it. The polls are so suspect that it's hard to get a really good handle on the situation, but Rove & Co. aren't releasing any Pub polls to dispute the Dem polls which makes me think they're in pretty bad shape.
ReplyDeleteI think the people are wrong, but that's irrelevent. This is a Democracy, and every two years the people have a chance to say their piece; and, this year they're saying "Throw The Bums OUT!"
In Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the US has limited its reach. US leadership has permitted its military operations to become trapped within a discrete geographic or political local. Consequently, the US has been unable to inflict a strategic defeats on its enemies, rather than there proxies. US adversaries, in each case, understood US weakness and therefore used sanctuaries from which they would sally forth, inflicting enough damage to bring either stalemate or defeat in the form of disengagement and withdrawal.
ReplyDeleteSomeone should look at the campaigns of Alexander, who began in modern day Iraq and ten years later found himself in Afghanistan, having fought strategic engagements which yielded to the Macedonians, Egypt, ME, Iran, Afghanistan, etc.
There is not much that can be done now except vote. If the Republicans get by on the skin of their teeth, they will, or should be chastised. If the Democrats get it, then the American public will be reminded about what they are all about in time for 2008. Maybe we can get right.
ReplyDeleteMaybe, the Pubs can keep the Senate. That could be important (very important) (incredibly important) if a Supreme Ct seat comes open; which it might.
ReplyDeleteColonel David Hunt just appeared on Fox. His take on current military leadership: “They are good guys, but most of them have never heard a bullet wiz by their ears. This lack of experience has found its way into training and doctrine.” (More or less, but definitely much to more.)
ReplyDeleteThis became a concern to me when I heard a young Marine interviewed during the battle of Fallujah. He was in a building, where he discovered some bad guys in a room. Rather than charging into the room, he did the sensible thing: he chucked in a grenade. That grenade was instantly tossed back at him, detonating. The Marine had not been taught that before using a grenade at close-quarters the following method is preferred: 1) the pin is pulled, 2) the spoon is let fly, 3) the thrower counts, “One, one thousand—Two, one thousand—Three, one thousand”, 4) the grenade is thrown and 5) the thrower hits the deck.
Whoever trained this young man had never been in combat, and himself had not been trained by a combat veteran.
You can bet grenade training has been improved because of lessons learned. Whether military leadership has adapted as well as the kids remains to be seen.
The Republicans should offer Lieberman Frist's job to come on over.
ReplyDeleterufus,
ReplyDeletere: SCOTUS
Near term, this is the most important concern of a Democrat Senate victory.
If the Dems do take the Senate, watch for two SCOTUS retirements, especially Ginsburg.
If the Republicans get their asses handed to them it will be because of a bunch of things, but it will be seen as a referendum on Iraq.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a more articulate spokesman could have made a better case for what he was doing than Dubya did, but I think the American people see Maliki on the TV screen, and say, "Fuck it, this is nuts!"
As I said, "I think the're wrong," but, hey, Democracy has served us pretty well, so far; I think I'll go ahead and support it this time around, too.
I think Blogger has duct taped this thing back together.
ReplyDelete2164th,
ReplyDeletere: Lieberman v. Frist
Lieberman could certainly be no more ineffective.
As a plug for the good guys ;-), it is thought that 30,000 - 40,000 Jewish mercenaries fought for Alexander, many coming over after their previous boss, Darius was defeated.
ReplyDeleteC-4 gave me an answer.
ReplyDelete