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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary by 10%

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Hillary Takes 10-Pt. Lead in Pa.

Monday, April 21, 2008 10:35 PM

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton continued to pull away from rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois as the campaigning in Pennsylvania ended and voters prepared to cast ballots Tuesday, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

Clinton now leads Obama, 51% to 41%, having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll’s margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.

Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll. It was conducted April 20-21, 2008, using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 675 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.


96 comments:

  1. Zogby has been quite reliable in close run up polls. I have to believe that there is a small percentage that will say they will vote for Obama, but will not on a racial bias basis. Personally I believe the percentage is smaller for whites than blacks but it is what it is.

    There seems to be some cautious negativism coming from the Obama camp. They do not look happy. Hillary may be back in the hunt.

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  2. Well, there will be growth in the springtime. Given an industrious farmer, and a line of credit, we should have a good harvest, in the fall. It will be a happy day, when the rain falls, and the seeds take root and grow. When the days of late July and August come along, we will be beginning harvest. This is the time of year, when we make our money, if we ever do. And so life goes on, regardless of the democrats.


    Chancy, The Gardener.

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  3. 2164th: There seems to be some cautious negativism coming from the Obama camp. They do not look happy. Hillary may be back in the hunt.

    Pollsters don't have access to lists of cell phone numbers. They end up calling Clinton's demographic, while Obama's demographic are young'uns who live in apartments and don't have a land line.

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  4. There's only one poll that counts and it ain't this one.

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  5. It is time to repost Sam's link to Bob Hope and Zombies

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  6. More than half of the supporters of both candidates say they would not be satisfied if the other candidate ends up as the Democratic nomination. Sixty four percent of Clinton voters said they would not be satisfied with Obama as the nominee while 35 percent said they would.

    Fifty four percent of Obama voters also said they would not be satisfied with Clinton, 44 percent said they would be. Overall however, 70 percent of all Democratic primary voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee while 64 percent said they would be satisfied with Obama.

    When it comes to the general election, Clinton fared slightly better against John McCain among Democratic primary voters today. Clinton led McCain 80 percent to 11 percent while Obama bested the presumptive GOP nominee 72 percent to 15 percent.


    Poll Peek

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  7. Meanwhile, record turnout was the expectation in Pennsylvania, similar to other states that have seen voters flood the polls.

    Statewide turnout would set a modern record for Democratic presidential primaries if more than 2.3 million of the 4.2 million registered party members show up at the polls.

    The current record — just under 55 percent — was set in 1980, when Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy narrowly defeated then-President Carter in Pennsylvania.


    Draws to a Close

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  8. 92%

    Of the black vote.

    The exit polls say.

    I have seen that again and again. Obama seems to always get a little over 90% of the black vote in these democratic primaries.


    They like this guy.

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  9. Bobal,

    To follow up on your comment regarding microbes and Native Americans. I in no way wish to suggest that the genocide, the spreading of smallpox ect., was done deliberately to cause a genocide but rather the resistence to those microbes simply wasn't present in th Natives and they easily succumbed to the diseases.

    With regard to Islam in general that link I posted for you was to try to disabuse you of the Fred induced paranoia of Muslims hating western governments and thirsting to overthrow them, if only they could. Relax dude, you are safe there in Idaho, your government is safe. No Sharia, even a tolerant strain, will be imposed upon you or your ancestors.

    With respect to your pointing out the rabid dog - are you also warning all young girls of the perils of Mormons due to that sects behavior where the children were removed?

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  10. Ash, I think as a matter of historical fact, though I have read a little controversy about this, and the real truth may be lost to the passing of time, that there really was some incidents of trying to spread some pox by the whites to the reds. It didn't seem to work so well, I have read.

    There were many villages of reds though that the Spaniard--was it DeSoto?--correct me if I am wrong--saw very early on, and then when he came back a decade or two later, where all gone. Pox.


    This was not intentional. Nobody knew what the hell was up, at the time.

    Many, many whites, and I have know some personally, tried to interact with the reds in a as they perceived it Christian like manner. It is a complex story, and the truth should be told.

    This is an interesting topic, and we should get to the truth of it, as best we can.

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  11. Jeff Amherst may well have some sin on his hands.

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  12. obama is dead...

    he has zero chance of winning the general election and as of now, he is a ship going down...

    wright, ayers, the PLO....

    it's over thank g-d

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  13. Well, I don't know what is going on here, just look up Jeff Amherst.

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  14. There was a Spaniard, who came up into the middle of America, a little ways, very early on, and saw many Indian villages, and when he came back, they were all gone, dead from the pox it is thought.
    Who was that?

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  15. WiO: he has zero chance of winning the general election and as of now, he is a ship going down...

    That's what we thought about McCain in the GOP primaries around July of 2007. Always in motion, the future...

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  16. I think that would be Hernando DeSoto.

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  17. Pox blankets..

    I knew this whacko in the navy who used to take the pillows of people who pissed him off and roll them over a couple of times on the bathroom floor then put them back in their bunks. Couple of mornings later they wake up with a cold.

    Crazy fucker.

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  18. Stay away from him.

    A biologist, or a doctor, would describe the spreading of the pox in very scientific terms.

    But this doesn't give much comfort to those in the native villages, whose whole world collapsed because of it.

    LONG LIVE MODERN MEDICINE

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  19. The tough tone of the Pennsylvania Democratic campaign tarnished both candidates — but more so Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

    ...

    Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree, about the same as in all other primaries so far this year — and substantially more than Ohio's 38 percent.

    ...

    These early results indicate a higher-than-usual turnout by seniors, but that just might reflect the fact that seniors tend to vote early.


    Tarnishes Both

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  20. One thing is certain. A lot of early supporters for Obama were excited about something that never existed. The newness has passed like the end of a third date. It is not quite the same. It puts him on a normal footing with McCain and Clinton.

    He now has to get beyond platitudes and present and defend a specific platform. The Clintons have their blood up and will not quit.

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  21. BREAKING NEWS

    TERESITA ADMITS THE OBVIOUS--

    Iran is seeking nuclear weapons--

    posted by our lady at B.C.

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  22. Saudi Arabia would be followed by other Middle East states bent on producing or acquiring nuclear weapons, the report said. The report, based on interviewing hundreds of analysts, diplomats in Washington and the Middle East in the last half of 2007, cited Turkey.

    In contrast, Egypt would not develop a nuclear weapons program, the report said. Bowman said such a program would encounter strong opposition from Israel and the United States.

    The report warned Congress that U.S. credibility in the region was being eroded amid Iran's nuclear program. Bowman said the United States must take steps to restore its credibility with Turkey and Arab allies by 2010.


    Saudis Frightened

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  23. And,
    Ash has said, they have a right to them.

    Fools, and I am going to bed, and don't care who wins the Democratic Primary in Pennslyvania.

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  24. 2164th: One thing is certain. A lot of early supporters for Obama were excited about something that never existed. The newness has passed like the end of a third date.

    Clinton is all yak and no shack. There is no mathematical way for her to win more delegates, and she would have to win all the remaining states by 70-30 margins to get a majority of the popular vote, and all this to make a case to the superdelegates to break her way. Only five have broken her way since Feb. 5.

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  25. A good night for Al Gore's "White Knight" ride to the White House.

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  26. Rat, why do you persist in that notion?

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  27. Adds a little flavor to an otherwise dull contest.

    Neither Obama nor Billary will have enough delegates to win on the first round of voting, in Denver.

    As the polls suggest, if either Billary or Obama get the nod, many of the Dem Party faithful will be dissatisfied and may bolt, in November.

    Al Gore would be the only solution that would be acceptable to all of their base electorate.

    And, of course, he'd beat the pants off of McCain.

    Tested, rested and ready ...
    Al Gore

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  28. And I'll be damned if Wretchard doesn't visit the bar.

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  29. Come off the bench to win the game, in November

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  30. I've noticed the influences, from time to time.

    Don't think I've been damned by it.

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  31. Are you saying, Rat, that the present contest is anything less than the most engaging of your lifetime?

    The political press certainly has no need of you.

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  32. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  33. I have never seen a trio of less qualified candidates, in all my days.

    If I was a "real" conspiracy buff, I'd be thinking there was one in the works, now.

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  34. Did a lot better than I thought.

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  35. Yet the enduring outrage of Pakistan's blasphemy laws must be confronted. Introduced by the dictator Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s, the laws offer no precise definition of the crime and require no proof of intent or standards of evidence.

    The mere accusation of saying or writing something deemed insulting to the Prophet Muhammad or the Koran is enough to be arrested and imprisoned. Indeed, even injuring the "religious feelings" of individual citizens is prohibited.

    Since 1986, at least 892 persons have been accused of blasphemy--and in virtually every instance the charges were completely fabricated.


    Blasphemy in Pakistan

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  36. Yeah, you nailed it with that Zogby poll.

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  37. So, in Denver, neither will have enough delegates to win.
    Bad blood will be boiling

    How will the super delegates gain victory for themselves and their Party, in November, with a fractured Party?

    They will need a united effort, to gain the White House and a filibuster proof Senate.

    They'll need a "White Knight"

    In the second round of voting.

    How many absentions could there be?
    Voting "present", on that first ballot.

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  38. A technique that Obama was master of.

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  39. At this writing, it appears that Clinton defeated Obama in Pennsylvania by about 200,000 votes. That’s a pretty big chunk cut out of Obama’s half-million-plus cumulative lead going into the Pennsylvania contest.

    Now attention will turn to North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, where Clinton must win the latter and at least push her percentage into the 40s in the former.

    Always, always take the Clintons seriously. You don’t have to like ‘em.


    Take the Clintons Seriously

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  40. i was wrong...

    not 14% just 10%

    but the good news?

    obama is toast...

    period

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  41. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said that a tightening of lending practices was stymieing some home shoppers, counterbalancing relatively low mortgage rates. "At the same time, many buyers continue to bide their time with a large number of homes to chose from, while other potential buyers remain on the sidelines."

    February homes sales were down nearly 24% from a year earlier. Sales of existing homes fell nearly 13.0% in 2007 to 5.65 million, the biggest decline in 25 years.

    The median sales price for single-family homes and condominiums dropped 8.2% in February from a year ago, settling at $195,900. The median price for single-family homes was down 8.7% from a year ago, the biggest decline in four decades.


    Prices Tumble

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  42. Without Obama's 92% of the "Black" vote, the Dems cannot gain the filibuster proof Senate.

    Many of the super delegates could lose, in November, if those "Black" votes stay home, disgusted by the process.

    It is the key constituency in the plantation politics that the Democrats practice. They will fear a slave revolt, more than most anything else imaginable.

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  43. I still say shared ticket.







    But maybe we ought to ask sam.

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  44. Obama becomes VP, with Al Gore, bulds his resume, unites tha Party and becomes the heir apparent.

    The Democrats leave the Clinton era behind them.

    As viable a scenario as any other I've heard, more viable than most.

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  45. Shared ticket and Obama gets the top slot.

    Will make the current "active" vice presidency seem a trifling by comparison.

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  46. Doubtful that Obama would, or could, take the second spot, with Billary.

    But he could with Gore.

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  47. I doubt that that scenario, trish, would be acceptable to Bill.

    He won't take third fiddle, not after playing lead.

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  48. Remove scare quotes from active.

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  49. Sam says it's gonna be Obama/Zinni.

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  50. I forgot about Bill.



    I tend to do that. I think of him as a kind of relic.

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  51. Obama/Zinni beats Obama/Wesley walking away.



    But then we have a few questions for Zinni regarding the Cole. Yes. We do.

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  52. I have never seen a trio of less qualified candidates, in all my days.

    If I was a "real" conspiracy buff, I'd be thinking there was one in the works, now.


    Tue Apr 22, 11:34:00 PM EDT

    And I can't get to sleep, per ususal, and couldn't agree more.

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  53. Bill is the power on the throne, in that household.

    Whether they live in Georgetown or on PA Ave.

    At least that's my take.

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  54. Right, that's what I said. Bill's 3rd term.

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  55. Report just out. Aussie inflation rate at 4.2%.

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  56. per ususal = usual

    Idiom:
    as usual
    As commonly or habitually happens: As usual, I slept late that Saturday morning.

    As in, it happens all the time...

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  57. In other words, I agree with Rat, and wonder what election to compare this to, in our American history.

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  58. Samsung has developed a new mobile phone battery which is powered by water and aims to bring this battery to the market by 2010.

    When the handset is switched on the reaction between metal and water in the phone will produce hydrogen gas. This is then channeled to the fuel cell where it reacts with oxygen in the air to generate power.

    According to Oh Yong-soo, vice president of Samsung Electronics Mechanics' research centre, the new battery could last for up to 10 hours, adding that based on four hours of use daily on average, the hydrogen cartridge will have to be replaced about every five days.


    Water Powered Phones

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  59. I think there are two thrones in that household, Rat. A lot of households like that.

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  60. Without question, fresh water is our most precious resource, and as the population increases, so too will the cost of water. The Desert™ Cube Waterless Urinal System is a simple and effective way you can help solve this economic and environmental challenge.

    Using natural microbial technology to control odours and the build up of uric scale, the Desert™ Cube system is rapidly transforming washrooms across Australia. The benefits are not only in the massive water savings, but also in odour elimination, chemical free maintenance and improved hygiene.

    Approved by all relevant government bodies, the Desert™ Cube System is good for your business, your customers and the environment. With one small change, you can make a big difference.


    Urinal System

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  61. Well if a 'Desert Rat' will buy into a "Desert Cube' what option do I have but to go along with that?

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  62. The Desert™ Cube Waterless Urinal System

    Somehow this doesn't make any sense to me.

    Grandma always said--

    "Do you have to pass water?"

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  63. And then again, we had the--

    WC--

    aka, the Water Closet...

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  64. In German it's the vay-tsay.

    The WC.

    The water closet.

    Interesting, that.

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  65. German: Geez, I dumped that file long ago.

    Try creating a new one at my age.

    But it happens, almost in spite of oneself.

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  66. Top 10 things you can do to reduce global warming.

    1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

    Do your part to reduce waste by choosing reusable products instead of disposables. Buying products with minimal packaging (including the economy size when that makes sense for you) will help to reduce waste.

    2. Use Less Heat and Air Conditioning

    Adding insulation to your walls and attic, and installing weather stripping or caulking around doors and windows can lower your heating costs more than 25 percent, by reducing the amount of energy you need to heat and cool your home.

    3. Change a Light Bulb

    Wherever practical, replace regular light bulbs with compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs. Replacing just one 60-watt incandescent light bulb with a CFL will save you $30 over the life of the bulb.

    More

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  67. In German, they say, vay-tsay, is that vat they say?

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  68. 2.3 mil dem voters vs. .8 mil republican.

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  69. In Indiana on Tuesday night, he tried to look ahead to his hoped-for showdown with McCain, while at the same time continuing his case against the primary opponent he has been unable to shake.

    "We can be a party that says and does whatever it takes to win the next election. We can calculate and poll-test our positions and tell everyone exactly what they want to hear," he said.

    "Or we can be the party that doesn't just focus on how to win but why we should. We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the challenges we face.


    Taking Pennsylvania

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  70. 3x as many dem voters than republican.

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  71. I'm learning to roll my R's.



    Sam, I think much of that has to do simply with an ongoing contest v. a decided one.

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  72. "Let not your hear be troubled."

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  73. I don't think it means much,
    Sam, if we had a primary here, in the national news, I might go out and vote, too. Maybe even vote for Hillary, the bitch, then come home in November.

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  74. Speaking of Hannity, I've not heard drive-time radio for months.

    Can't say I'm the worse for it.

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  75. "Let not your heart be troubled."

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  76. Right, I'm with you guys. Makes sense.

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  77. Together, United and Continental would be the world's largest carrier, topping Delta-Northwest and American Airlines (nyse: AMR - news - people ), the current No. 1. The combined company would have $35.0 billion in annual revenues and nearly 100,000 employees.

    That is if UAL doesn't continue to cut capacity before a deal can be made. The company said during its earnings report that it will ground 30 aircraft, 10 to 15 more than it initially announced last month.

    It said capacity will be reduced 9.0% by the fourth quarter of 2008 following a 5.0% reduction in the past fourth quarter.


    United we Fall

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  78. It's the one thing I always liked about Hannity.

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