“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Friday, May 07, 2010

What Happened? Was Wall Street Hacked?


In one of the most dizzying half-hours in stock market history, the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points on Thursday, May 6th before bouncing back to close down 347.80 points.

This represented the biggest intraday decline since 1987. But what made this crash so absolutely shocking is that it happened in the course of less than an hour. Between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. the Dow lost over 700 points before dramatically bouncing back about 600 points. Two of the 30 stocks in the Dow, Procter & Gamble and 3M, plunged more than 30% in just 15 minutes. Accenture went from trading at around 40 dollars a share all the way down to one cent before bouncing back. Traders and investors were left completely stunned and wondering what in the world had just happened.

So what did happen?

The following are some of the most common theories being put forward to explain what happened....

#1) A Bad Trade

It has been widely suggested that a "fat finger trade" was responsible for triggering the panic. According to CNBC, "sources" have told that network that a trader (possibly at Citigroup) entered a "b" for billion instead of an "m" for million in a trade involving Procter & Gamble.

However, Citigroup has already announced that it has found "no evidence" that it was involved in any erroneous trades. In fact, a statement was released in which Citigroup spokesman Stephen Cohen said this....

"At this point, we have no evidence that Citi was involved in any erroneous transaction."

#2) A Computer Glitch

New York Stock Exchange spokesman Rich Adamonis says that "there were a number of erroneous trades" on May 6th, and that these could have been caused by computer error.

And the truth is that trading in the financial markets is more automated and more reliant on computers than it ever has been before. Trading literally moves at lightning speed now, and a number of analysts are warning that the pace of the market is so fast at this point that it is really easy for things to spin out of control very quickly.

But if this was really primarily caused by a "computer glitch", how are investors supposed to have any confidence at all in the market? After all, if a computer error can wipe out half your account in less than an hour, why invest at all?

#3) Cascading Stop Losses

Once the market hits certain technical levels, it is going to automatically start triggering stop loss orders. Once those stop loss orders are triggered, it will push the market down further thus triggering more stop loss orders.

While there have been some protections implemented to guard against this kind of thing, the reality is that it does still happen.

#4) Hackers

Hackers have become more sophisticated and more cunning than ever before. In fact, the bigger a target is, the more enjoyment most hackers get out of taking them down. Is it a possible that someone could have hacked in to the New York Stock Exchange?

#5) Cyberterrorism

Rogue nations and terrorist organizations have been developing their "cyber warfare" capabilities for some time now. We have been repeatedly warned that someday we will see an "Internet 9/11". Could this stock market plunge be a preview of that?

#6) Fear Of The European Debt Crisis Spreading

There are mounting concerns in the financial markets about Greece's financial condition and that the European debt crisis could spread around the globe.

In fact, the Dow has lost 631 points, or more than 5%, in just the last three days amidst worries about the situation in Greece. This represents the biggest three day drop since March 2009.

#7) Stop Hunting

Anyone who has spent much time in the Forex market knows what this is all about. The truth is that some of the big financial sharks in the marketplace seem to really enjoy blowing out stop losses.

So could have this have been a situation where a stop loss hunting expedition spun wildly out of control?

#8) A Real Panic

There is also the possibility that this was a real financial panic. There are huge concerns about what is going on in Europe and the currency markets are fluctuating wildly. The Dow was already down several hundred points even before the massive plunge took place. The reality is that there is a lot of fear in the financial markets right now.

But if it was a real panic, then why did the Dow bounce back so quickly? Well, it is the job of the "plunge protection team" to keep the stock market from declining too rapidly. So did the "plunge protection team" swing into action today? Well, the truth is that we will probably never know because the general public is not supposed to know when they intervene.

In any event, the next couple of days should hopefully make all of this a lot clearer. The trading during the afternoon of May 6th at the big firms will be gone over with a fine-toothed comb, and the exchanges will be closely analyzing their systems for any glitches.

It has already been announced that some of the most erroneous trades will be cancelled. The Nasdaq and NYSE's ARCA trading unit have both said that they will cancel trades executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. on May 6th where a stock price rose or fell more than 60 percent from the last trade in that security at 2:40 p.m.

But this episode shows just how vulnerable our financial markets really are. After witnessing what we saw today, it is going to be really hard to have confidence in the system.

In fact, even if this was just one "bad trade" or a "simple computer glitch", the reality is that this episode is going to inject even more fear into a marketplace that is already filled with tension.

When fear grips a market things can go south very, very quickly. The truth is that markets tend to fall more quickly than they rise, and if a wave of panic starts sweeping over the financial markets we could see things get quite messy in the coming days.


  1. What happens when a house of smoke and mirrors is exposed to the reality of an actual storm?

    it evaporates...

    couple of factors to consider...

    Who Was Withdrawing From Money Market Funds On September 16-18, 2008 And Why?

    What is the impact of the Fed doubling the dollar supply in 12 months?

    Just where do all those DOLLARS go that are given to China & OPEC when there is nothing left for them to purchase?

    To me the DJI has always been a false construct with the ability to replace losing companies with companies on the upswing...

    My major investment today?

    Actual hard inventory...

    Why, cause I am not smart enough to play a game where I have no chance to actually to beat the house, only to beat others dumber or less lucky than I.

  2. Hard Inventory?

    That's not the John Galt solution.

  3. Well, the Rufus "gasoline consumption indicator" tm continues to be the best leading indicator of job growth.

    The steady climb over the last 4 months from around 8.6 million barrels/day (mbpd) to 9.3 mbpd last week has front-ran an increase of 1.5 Million added jobs in the household survey (includes jobs added by small mom and pops.)

    Manufacturing is adding jobs at a pretty good pace. We had the biggest gain in manufacturing jobs in April since Dec 1998, I think it was.

    This deal in Europe might put a glitch in the recovery this month, strange as that may seem, especially with the stock market doing weird shit, and tanking in general; but, overall, the trajectory is looking pretty good so far.

  4. Nation's unemployment rate up to 9.9 percent in April

    "The jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent as people streamed back into the market looking for work."

    Say what!? What were those folks before they started streaming back into the market looking for work? Bagels?

    How many million more of these unreportables remain unreported on the official rolls? I've seen estimates that say another 8-9%.

    How are we going to categorize the millions of soon to be high school graduates when they start looking for work in the next 60 days?

  5. desert rat said...
    Hard Inventory?

    That's not the John Galt solution.

    It is to me, since I live in the real world and Galt's Gulch is not actually real...

    I have actual product... I dont invest in dollars or other smoke and mirrors..

    I determine what I charge based on supply and demand to get what I require...

    to me a pound of canned tuna is worth X and if the population doesnt like my price? they dont have to buy it...

    If I accept their useless dollars, I better be able to use it to buy more hard inventory...

    at the end of the day?

    I got a warehouse full of real, tangible product whose value will increase or decrease depending on the worthlessness of the dollar....

    And the purpose?

    To get thru the storm that is about to dump on our asses...

    I'll see ya on the other side....

  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

  7. To carry on the debt discussion of yesterday my understanding of the ratios is that SS and intergovernmental debt is not considered part of the public debt - or debt to public (however you want to phrase it). The CIA fact sheet stating the debt to GDP ratio does not include state debt nor intergovernmental debt from what I've read.

    California has no law limiting the amount of public debt the state can accumulate. Adding debt approved by voters but not yet borrowed brings the total to $136 billion, and the administration’s Strategic Growth Plan calls for $35 billion more"

    Arizona state debt:

    "FY 2008 Outstanding State Debt
    is $6.3 Billion"

    According to the 'Goldwater Institue':

    "Arizona $37 billion in Debt Despite Constitutional Debt Limits"


    "While state debt is around $4
    billion, local government non-IRB debt in Kansas is around $8 billion and is increasing."

    Mind you the US has a pretty darn valuable printing press yet one still wonders what the upper limit is for debt to GDP for the nation?

  8. 9.9%

    290k new jobs

    msnbc touts it as best new jobs in 27 years

    census jobs ONLY accounted for 66k...

    (this doesnt count all other FED jobs created)

    msnbc is have a self induced orgasm...

    ONLY 9.9%

    Happy days are here, recovery is at hand...

    "a light bulb" has gone off and the AMerican public sees daylight and a self sustained recovery.... (MSNBC)

    Yesterday was a fluke and greece is not really important.... (msnbc)

  9. WiO, general rule of thumb is to limit your inventory because there is a real cost to holding it. What would you do with a warehouse full of canned tuna? I hear you on the desire for 'hard inventory'. Land was once considered the ultimate hard asset but you've seen what can happen to its value lately. As my tax accountant once told me when I was considering buy a building to house my business "do you really want to put all your eggs in one basket? Everything is a commodity these days - even money".

  10. Ash said...
    WiO, general rule of thumb is to limit your inventory because there is a real cost to holding it. What would you do with a warehouse full of canned tuna?

    Eat it, sell it, trade it.... As for general rules of thumb? I could give a shit what that is...

    ASH: I hear you on the desire for 'hard inventory'. Land was once considered the ultimate hard asset but you've seen what can happen to its value lately.

    Sure, but what I buy doesnt go bad for a long time and I have the means to sell it as I choose...

    As the world becomes more unstable the specific hard inventory I buy are getting more difficult to acquire so no MOST of what I buy is not a commodity..

    ASH:As my tax accountant once told me when I was considering buy a building to house my business "do you really want to put all your eggs in one basket? Everything is a commodity these days - even money".

    Very good points but not germane to my specific sub category, in my specific area, product IS getting harder to get...

    It IS getting more expensive to ship it in

    and the cost of sitting on it is tiny since my other costs are fixed (rent electcity etc)

  11. Rick Salutin today:

    "First, the people, through their governments, are told to bail out banks by taking over their toxic assets to save the world. Then the bankers, who just this week declared huge profits, turn and tell governments to slash public spending, such as wages and pensions, to cover the deficits incurred in the bailouts. The people absorb the hit both times. This isn’t just theft, it’s brazen. It’s not rocket science, it’s economics with a moral sensibility."

  12. Ash,

    I believe that real estate is still the best investment vehicle for those knowledgeable and patient. For those not so blessed, get a Realtor you can trust. Just yesterday a very nice lady described her personal tragedy in trying to purchase contract for deed with a shark.

    While it is years away from happening, there will be those (even some on this site) who will kick themselves for not buying/optioning that piece of property for 1/2-1/3 its projected future value. When you enter the REO market, property can be had for far below its fair market value. Take care with REOs, among other dangers are asset managers who function with the lack of veracity and competence associated with government employees.

    On the matter of real estate options, in 2008 (effective 2009) the Georgia legislature, following advice from the GAR, turned the sales contract into an option contract. Moreover, there is no limit as to how long the option may last or what stipulations can be inserted by the parties.

    For a long time, I have toyed with the notion of creating/joining a syndicate whose goal would be garnering real estate via options. If the thing were structured properly, it could save folks from short selling.

    Ash, last quarter, not a single square foot of new commercial property was constructed under permit in Atlanta. Fully 20% of commercial property there goes begging, despite the owners' willingness in many cases to lease for less than cost.

    Also, Ash, I do not engage solely in the commercial real estate market. About half my business is residential, with many "clients" being active duty military. I use "clients" because I will not work with customers. Fortunately, I have the wherewithal to do referrals nationally and internationally with trusted agents.

    Finally, my base of operations is Atlanta - a huge market with unlimited potential once sanity again prevails.

  13. I agree allen that there is a lot of opportunity in Real Estate in the US. Here in Toronto I think we are at a market peak. I just doesn't make sense what people are spending to get a place. Commercial Real Estate is a whole different ball of wax. A buddy of mine does that for a living. My eyes blur with the complexity of the deals he describes. One small part of the game is that sale with lease back. I guess you can free up capital but...

  14. Ash,

    Re: sale with lease back

    If the parties approach this type of agreement strategically, it makes sense. Suppose I, the current owner, find myself with a diminishing ROE because my depreciation has been nearly tapped out. If I sell to my daughter (partner), she starts with maximum depreciation vs. minimal up front cost (which translates as a high ROI), while I get to write off the rent in toto. As you surmise, the fly in the ointment is the sustainable health of my business. Very often, sale with lease back, is not a strategic maneuver but, rather, is indicative of my lack of liquidity and panic.

    If my business is healthy, why would I need to do the sale lease back with an outside party? Instead, I could create an LLC and accomplish the same result, for example. While not wishing to belabor the point, I could also create or use a self-directed, real estate IRA to the same end (given tax law, great care must be used on this one).

    I have noticed that some condo owners on Hilton Head are advertising their willingness to participate in a sale with lease back. Obviously, much of this is driven by ill-liquidity/insolvency. They need the cash immediately, but they often lack a plan to address a terminal lack of sufficient, supporting income.

    Taking the liberty of making a gratuitous plug, I am always looking for clients...hint...anywhere in the world…hint

  15. "That creeped out thing of yours didn't last too long did it?"

    Oh, yes, it persists.

    I've been coming to this Bar since its establishment. Since its establishment I have served as the, shall we say, special concern of a whole cast of patrons. When you are sufficiently satisfied with your turn, someone else will soon feel the need.

    All the while my politics are changing and the EB is the last encouragement to finding a different watering hole. As it were.
    To finding those with whom I can agree on something, because acute daily conflict and challenge - or assiduous avoidance of same - is tiring even in the absence of vitriolic and very personal attacks.

    I thought the Bar was - just prior to and after bob's sad departure - discovering at least a tentative conviviality for each of those remaining. It's a Bar, after all, and that's what Bars really are for.

    It may well yet. But someone's going to have to take my stool.

  16. My stool: it's the one with FUCK carved in the underside.

  17. and I thought you were talking bowel movement ... ar ar ar

    Hey, wingnuts tend to flock only with those that agree with them. At least differences give you something to talk about. Hypocrisy is tiring though...

  18. Hey Trish, don't go away mad. Don't go away at all.

    Since I assume I am up near the top of the offenders you speak about, if you stay I will commit to not comment on any of your posts (although if Mockus wins I will be biting my toungue.)

    When the usual suspects threaten to leave the bar, I usually smile and wait the mandatory day or two for them to return. However, you appear just stubborn enough to make it an extended absence.

    You do add some welcome color to the surroundings.


  19. Wall Street has been bailed out six times in my adult lifetime.

    Must be nice to be too rich and too connected to fail.

    Seems like the whole rig is on the verge of floppin over, this time.

  20. Trish,

    Re: comity

    Without bothering to check the numbers you stated that Major Hasan is my "hobby horse". You then further personalized it by calling my reasonable concerns about the government's obfuscation and general uncooperativeness "creepy". You then accused me of a "selective agenda".

    You know, even if the creepy case of Maj. Hasan were my hobby horse, thereby through some twisted logic making me creepy, I still would be proud to make some noise for justice for the victims of not only the perp, but the institutions that waived him through until he finally carried out his threats by murdering 13 of YOUR comrades in arms.

    Your responses were grotesque and that has nothing to do with me personally, or creepy or selective or agenda or hobby horse. It simply was grotesque by its total absence of empathy for your fellows, their families and friends and the institution of the United States Army.

    When you were asked to offer any mitigating circumstances that might explain the government's behavior, you "would have none of it", again introducing "creepy" into the conversation.

    You would have the situation of Major Hasan trivialized, because to take it to its logical conclusion would be too painful. Better a few eggs get broken than the institution take its bitter medicine and face the truth. That truth, ultimately, will show that men who should know better advanced a lunatic out of political correctness. The nonsense about diversity being our strength is no more than a hollow, pathetic straw man.

    I will be sorry to see you leave, and hope you will reconsider.

  21. Well, I missed all that, but I agree w/Allen that Hassan is just one more stretch on credulity in a PC World Gone Mad.

    Also agree that Trish should not go!

  22. Regulator Deferred to Oil Industry on Rig Safety

    "WASHINGTON — Federal regulators warned offshore rig operators more than a decade ago that they needed to install backup systems to control the giant undersea valves known as blowout preventers, used to cut off the flow of oil from a well in an emergency.

    "The warnings were repeated in 2004 and 2009. Yet the Minerals Management Service, the Interior Department agency charged both with regulating the oil industry and with collecting royalties from it, never took steps to comprehensively address the issue, relying instead on industry assurances that they were on top of the problem, a review of documents shows..."

    Lax Regulators

    Bush increased the size of government by 50%. Obama has added at least a quarter million government jobs. What do these guys do?

    The regulators are basically empty suits sitting around collecting fat paychecks until they can retire and go to work for the companies they are "regulating".


  23. There are big differences between the US and Greece. However, there are some similarities that are troubling. One of them is the growing size, power, and cost of government workers expecially in light of their value as noted in the post above.

    "One in three Greeks works for the government. Government employees enjoy higher wages, more munificent benefits, and earlier retirements than private sector employees. Civil servants can retire after 35 years of service at 80 percent of their highest salary and enjoy lavish health plans, vacations, and other perks.

    "Because they are so numerous, and because Greece is highly centralized, public sector unions hardly have to negotiate. They simply vote in their preferred bosses. Some civil servants receive bonuses for using computers, others for arriving at work on time. Forestry workers get a bonus for outdoor work. All civil servants receive 14 yearly checks for 12 months' work. And it's impossible to fire them -- even for the grossest incompetence.

    "Public sector unions are growing in the U.S. More than 50 percent of all union members are now public employees who have negotiated sweet deals with local, state, and federal governments. As economic historian John Steele Gordon points out, "Federal workers now earn, in wages and benefits, about twice what their private-sector equivalents get paid. State workers often have Cadillac health plans and retirement benefits far above the private sector average: 80 percent of public-sector workers have pension benefits, only 50 percent in the private sector. Many can retire at age 50." While private employers were shedding jobs during the recession, state and local governments hired 110,000 new workers.

    "Obama's new spending will result in a 14.5 percent increase in the number of federal employees in just two years. And he has looked after union interests with particular zeal, whether at General Motors and Chrysler, or by funneling one-third of stimulus spending to state and local governments, or by repealing the rule that required unions to disclose their spending..."

    The Growing Size of Government


  24. Rockman's guess is the leak is about one quarter of an inch!

    Concerned that sand will grind out a bigger hole in the BOP Valve that almost worked.

  25. Sheer Terror

    Read a gripping tale by a tuna fisherman who was floating beside the rig.

  26. Rufus may be a hick; but, I think he's onto something...although, you got to wonder whether the computer stop-loss programs were gamed by a bunch of budding soros types that have been watching the market and taking advantage of negative euro sentiment while the US hits a signature double-dip out of recession...
    ...the perfect set up for the clouseaus in washington to set about to solve yet another problem of the unscrupulous capitalist bilking the poor commoner (financial reform) whilst the true causas belli are scurvy dogs financing their campaigns for office

  27. The more sand that has escaped from the hourglass of our life, the clearer we should foresee from one end to the other it.

  28. Who Was Withdrawing From Money Market Funds On September 16-18, 2008 And Why?

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