Putin: troops to Abkhazia..."without paying attention to anyone that does not like it."

Listen to Putin, being Putin.

Putin Visits Breakaway Georgian Region, Unveils Plan for Military Base

By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, August 13, 2009

MOSCOW, Aug. 12 -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin traveled to the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia on Wednesday and pledged to strengthen Russia's military presence there, defying U.S. and European objections amid simmering tensions in the region.

Speaking on the anniversary of his nation's victory over Georgia in a five-day war last year, Putin said the Kremlin planned to spend nearly $500 million to build a base in the separatist enclave and reinforce its de facto border with Georgia.

"It won't be a Maginot line," Putin said, referring to the fortifications France built against Germany before World War II.

His remarks and appearance in Abkhazia underscored Russia's growing foothold in what once was Georgian territory and highlighted the sharp differences that remain between Moscow and Washington despite the Obama administration's efforts to "reset" bilateral relations.

U.S. and European officials have called on Russia to comply with the cease-fire agreement that ended the war and withdraw its troops to prewar positions and levels. But Russia says it is no longer bound by those promises because it recognized Abkhazia and another breakaway region, South Ossetia, as independent states after the war.

It is unclear how many Russian soldiers remain in the disputed territories, where Moscow has stationed troops since the post-Soviet conflicts of the 1990s. But the military said in June that plans to double its prewar presence to nearly 7,500 troops had been scaled back. Instead, officials said more Russian border guards would be deployed.

Russian forces are stationed at two bases, one in the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali and the other in Gudauta, a town on the Black Sea coast in western Abkhazia. The Gudauta base was built during the Soviet era and is considered a strategic asset because it boasts one of the largest military airfields in the Caucasus.

Russia and Abkhazia have been haggling over Gudauta for months, with the Abkhaz seeking to get more from Russia in return for use of the base. It was not clear whether Putin had succeeded in breaking a deadlock in talks over a formal treaty on the subject.

Some Abkhaz are said to be wary of growing too dependent on Russia, but the authorities greeted Putin warmly as he arrived by helicopter in the local capital of Sukhumi. The visit came a month after U.S. and European officials criticized Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for making a similar appearance in South Ossetia.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing Putin's visit, calling it "yet another provocation carried out quite in the tradition of Soviet special services."

In an interview with Abkhaz reporters broadcast in Russia, Putin chastised the West for condemning the Russian invasion of Georgia, which he has long argued was required to protect South Ossetia from a Georgian attack.


"That's not even double standards, not even triple standards. It's a complete lack of any standards," he said, accusing the United States of pressuring countries to continue supporting Georgia's claim to the territories.

Asked about the possibility of another war, Putin replied: "Given the Georgian leadership today, nothing can be ruled out, but it will be much harder for them to do it."

The Obama administration has repeatedly endorsed Georgia's territorial integrity, and only Nicaragua has joined Russia in recognizing the sovereignty of the separatist regions.

Special correspondent Sarah Marcus in Tbilisi, Georgia, contributed to this report.

Surprise, surprise, Georgian troops launch a spontaneous mutiny. Russia astounded.

A tank battalion has mutinied at a military base near Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, the government has said. BBC

Tanks and armoured personnel carriers are being sent to quell the rebellion at the Mukhrovani base, witnesses say.
The authorities say the mutiny is part of an attempted coup - linked to Russia and aimed at assassinating President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Russia's envoy to Nato described the charges as "mad". The trouble comes a day before Nato exercises in Georgia.
Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev has condemned Nato for planning military exercises in a country "where there was just a war".

Georgia and Russia have poisonous relations, and fought a war over Georgia's breakaway territory of South Ossetia last August.

In a separate development, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he would not attend a planned meeting of the Nato-Russia Council later this month following the alliance's expulsion of two Russian diplomats last week.

They were expelled reportedly in retaliation for a spy scandal involving an Estonian official.

'Plotter at large'

The mutiny at the Mukhrovani base, some 30km (20 miles) from Tbilisi, erupted on Tuesday morning, when soldiers began disobeying orders, Georgian officials said.

The soldiers were aiming at "disrupting Nato exercises and overturning the authorities militarily", Georgian Defence Minister David Sikharulidze told Georgian television.

It was not immediately known how many soldiers were taking part in the mutiny.

"The rebellion continues. Law enforcement agents are on the scene," Mr Sikharulidze said.

The mutiny broke out as the government announced it had disrupted a coup plot.

The interior ministry told the BBC that the plotters wanted to destabilise Georgia and assassinate President Saakashvili.

Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said one of the suspected coup leaders - former special forces commander Georgy Gvaladze - was arrested. But he an alleged co-plotter - former chief of special forces Koba Otanadze - was still at large.

The spokesman said the government had been aware of the plot for two months.

The rebellion appeared to be "co-ordinated with Russia", the interior ministry said.

But Dmitry Rogozin, Moscow's ambassador at military alliance, said the mutiny in Georgia was the result of "crazy politics of President Saakashvili".

In a separate development, opposition protests are continuing in Tbilisi.

The demonstrators say they plan to bloc three main roads into the capital later on Tuesday.

Should Georgia be Included in NATO?

Do you see a President Obama in this picture?

Joe Biden predicted that shortly after taking office, President Obama would be tested somewhere by someone. Georgia seems a likely place. The issue will be NATO expansion into Georgia.

Putin is a ruthless, dangerous and violent KGB trained thug. He would love nothing more than to humiliate Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili. Putin has publicly threatened to cut his ball off. Putin certainly has the EU by the balls regarding energy. A nice little nasty scare in Europe would be good for the suffering Russia energy business.

NATO expansion into Eastern Europe was always contradictory to the stated goal of including Russia into the West. A missile defense system, parked on Russian borders is hard to explain to the Russians while maintaining a straight face.

At best Obama is ambivalent over missile defense. Do not be surprised to see it be traded away in eastern Europe. Georgia in NATO? Not likely.

Putin has more to gain and very little to lose in challenging the new American President over Georgia.

____________________

Obama, Misha and the Bear


By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF NYT
Published: November 19, 2008
TBILISI, Georgia

A wounded, angry bear is loose north of here, and it has people terrified.

The bear has ravaged this lovely country, a booming capitalist enclave that worships America, relies on a much-praised flat tax and has uprooted corruption almost overnight (in part by firing every traffic cop in the country).

A main road here is named for President George W. Bush, who visited in 2005. Everybody studies English, sometimes in the local McDonald’s franchises, and people seem bewildered at Western doubts about their behavior toward the Russians.

“We thought we had escaped them, and they came back and raped us,” said Alexander Rondeli, who runs a think tank in Tbilisi. “And people in the West are saying we have to tell them to be our guest.”

The architect of today’s Georgia is Mikheil Saakashvili. Misha, as he is universally known, is young, brilliant, charismatic, American-educated and staffs his government with people like him. You get the sense that any given Georgian cabinet official is about half the age and double the I.Q. of his or her American equivalent.

Now with Georgians mauled by the bear in the brief August war, they desperately want to join NATO for protection, and one of the few things that Barack Obama and John McCain agreed on in the campaign was to oblige by continuing the process of admitting Georgia into NATO.

In fact, that’s an awful idea. President-elect Obama needs a new approach to Russia if we want to avoid a new cold war, and we also need to get over our crush on Misha.

Look carefully and you see that Georgia isn’t quite the shining beacon of democracy that Americans sometimes believe.

“Journalists are basically forbidden from telling real stories,” said Sopho Mosidze, a television journalist. “If you watch Russian TV or Georgian TV, it’s the same. It’s government propaganda.”

Ms. Mosidze is bitter partly because the station she was working at a year ago was stormed by special forces carrying guns while she was anchoring a news show. She said that troops cut off the signal and then beat up some of the journalists. The channel soon was reborn as a pro-government station. Indeed, today all nationally broadcast TV stations are in effect controlled by the government.

Then there is the Georgian War of August. It’s still not clear exactly how the war started, but what is certain is that Misha’s narrative — an unprovoked Russian invasion that forced Georgian troops to try to defend their territory — is nonsense.

The most likely explanation is that Misha, tired of continuous Russian provocations and emboldened by American support, saw a chance to recover territories that Russians were nibbling on. That was spectacularly reckless, and as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have documented, the Georgian Army (along with Russia’s) fired cluster bombs that harmed civilians.

“It was possible to avoid this war,” said Nino Burjanadze, a former close ally of Misha who last month formed an opposition party to challenge him. “Because of miscalculation, my country was involved in a war it was clear that it would lose.”

Russia took advantage of the war on the territory of one of Georgia’s breakaway republics to invade Georgia proper, and, if it hadn’t been for forceful American and European protests, Russian troops might well have overrun Tbilisi.

Since then, the United States has announced a $1 billion package of aid for Georgia. We should remember that military assistance would be a waste, for Georgia’s Army will never be strong enough to deter Russia. In contrast, trade and investment give Georgia international economic weight and probably help discourage a Russian invasion.

Note to Mr. Obama: It would be a nightmare to have our troops tethered through NATO to Misha. In any case, Georgia doesn’t obviously qualify for NATO membership since it doesn’t control its full territory, while the talk about NATO pushes all the wrong Russian nationalist buttons.

“NATO is not Georgia’s future,” said Amy Denman, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Georgia. “Georgia’s future is economic growth. If they can continue the economic growth cycle they’re on, they’re safe.”

Because Russia behaves irresponsibly — including its latest disgraceful threat to base missiles near Poland — the temptation in the Obama administration will be to continue with NATO expansion and perhaps even with the ill-advised missile system for Europe. (We have so many better ways to spend money!) Instead, let’s engage Russia as we engage China — while still bluntly calling Russia on its uncivilized behavior.

Poking badly behaved bears is no substitute for sober diplomacy. We don’t want Barack to be another Misha.

European Concerns Over Russia Increase. US and NATO Warships Entering the Black Sea

Turkish protests at US and Nato warships moving into the Black Sea

Georgia: Europe unites to condemn Kremlin

David Miliband joined a chorus of Western leaders to condemn Russia, accusing the Kremlin of jeopardising European security by recognising Georgia's two breakaway regions.

By Con Coughlin in Kiev, Adrian Blomfield in Tbilisi and Harry de Quetteville in Berlin Telegraph

6:08AM BST 28 Aug 2008

The rhetorical salvoes showed the new strain on relations with Russia. For its part, the Kremlin said it had only defended its citizens in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, argued the decision had been "unavoidable".

Speaking in Ukraine's capital, Kiev, the Foreign Secretary said that Russia was "more isolated, less trusted and less respected" as a result of its actions in Georgia. These breached a United Nations Resolution, approved by Moscow last April, which reaffirmed Georgia's sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Mr Miliband placed the onus for avoiding a new Cold War firmly on President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia. "The Russian President says he is not afraid of a new Cold War. We don't want a new Cold War. He has a big responsibility not to start one," he said.

Comparing Russia's actions to the Prague Spring of 1968, when Moscow suppressed a reformist Czech government, Mr Miliband said: "The sight of Russian tanks in a neighbouring country on the 40th anniversary of the crushing of the Prague Spring has shown that the temptations of power politics remain. The old sores and divisions fester. And Russia is not yet reconciled to the new map of this region."

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister, issued a stark warning. "If we don't watch out, Europe's whole security architecture will start to falter with unforeseeable consequences for all of us. The spiral of provocation must stop immediately," he said.

France, which holds the European Union's rotating presidency, expressed concern that Moscow, emboldened by its military success in Georgia, could turn on other former Soviet republics with breakaway provinces and large Russian minorities.

Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, described the situation as "very dangerous" and said: "There are other objectives that one can suppose are objectives for Russia, in particular the Crimea, Ukraine and Moldova."

Moscow backs separatist rebels in Moldova's region of Transdniester in much the same way that the Kremlin supported South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian nationalists have frequently called for the return of the Crimea, which was transferred to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.

So far, only the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, has followed Russia and recognised the independence of the two regions. Mr Lavrov, the Kremlin's foreign minister, said: "I can only say that we will not be roving the globe, twisting hands and twisting arms of people for them to recognise South Ossetia or Abkhazia."

He added that Russia taken this step for the sake of its citizens in both enclaves. "This recognition was absolutely unavoidable. Short of losing our dignity as a nation, we couldn't act otherwise," said Mr Lavrov.

America did not join the verbal barrage against Russia. Instead, the US Coast Guard ship Dallas docked in Georgia's port of Batumi and unloaded humanitarian aid. The USS McFaul, a destroyer armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles dropped anchor nearby in the Black Sea.

Mr Medevedev claimed yesterday the American ships were supplying arms to Georgia. Raising the possibility of a naval confrontation, he ordered the Russian cruiser "Moskva" and two missile boats to deploy off the coastal city of Sukhumi in breakaway Abkhazia.

This summoned memories of the first confrontation of the Cold War when the USS Missouri was deployed in the Black Sea in 1946 to deter Russian threats against Turkey.

ErectUs intErrUptus

EU President Rules Out Sanctions Against Russia
By Lisa Bryant Voice of America
Paris
25 August 2008

Current EU president France has ruled out sanctions against Russia as European Union leaders consider ways to pressure Moscow to fully comply with a ceasefire agreement. Lisa Bryant reports from Paris that EU leaders will meet next week to discuss the crisis in Georgia.

In an interview on French public radio Monday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the European Union did not foresee sanctions against Russia, even though Moscow continues to have troops in Georgia.

Kouchner said the worst had been avoided in Georgia and the majority of Russian troops had retreated from Georgian territory.

Kouchner spoke a week before European leaders meet in Russia to decide how to deal with the Georgian crisis that flared up over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. France currently holds the rotating presidency of the 27-member European Union. Acting on behalf of the bloc, French President Nicolas Sarkozy flew to Russia and to Georgia earlier this month to negotiate a cease-fire after clashes between the two over South Ossetia.

The EU divided over how to deal with Russia, with some members wanting a tougher position against Russia than others.

Moscow has refused to fully retreat from Georgia, arguing the cease-fire deal gives it the right to keep some forces there. On Monday, Russia's lower house of parliament vowed to back independence for South Ossetia and another breakaway region in Georgia.

Kouchner said it was important to control the corridor in which the Russian forces patrol - and it would be easier after the summit to send observers from the EU and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to Georgia to monitor the cease-fire.

Nato's Straw House

The quick take on NATO is not promising. Since the false ending of the Cold War the most important NATO undertaking has been in Afghanistan, but other than the Germans fascinated by skulls the war has not been conducted with any fire in the NATO belly. The odds of NATO lasting in Afghanistan, till a win, are not good.

Georgia is another matter. Do not hold your breath waiting for Georgia to get into NATO. NATO is not what we hoped it would be. Whether NATO has built a straw house or one of sticks, it sure ain't brick.

The charade may as well stop here. Expansion to Soviet borders is pointless.
We have returned to “spheres of influence” and "balance of power." Get used to it.

___________________

If Nato won't fight, what's it for?
Tuesday, August 19, 2008, 10:33 AM GMT [General]

NATO is meeting in summit at Brussels. Sixty years after the alliance was signed, can anyone tell me what it's for?

The revival of Russian revanchism might seem to answer that question. Except that NATO has been conspicuous by its absence from the Georgian conflict. Let's conjecture that Russia tried something similar in a NATO state. Say it moved troops into Latvia following inter-communal rioting. (It wouldn't declare war, of course. No one ever declares war these days.) Say that, as in Georgia, it agreed to remove its forces but somehow didn't quite get round to pulling them out. Does anyone really believe that this would trigger an all-out NATO counter-offensive? That Turkish troops would surge up through Georgia to harry Russia's south? That the Norwegian and Icelandic navies would blockade Archangel? That American and Canadian and British and Belgian forces would be dispatched to relieve the Baltic States?

It seems likely that that a Soviet attack on West Germany during the Cold War would indeed have triggered a military response. Certainly the possibility was strong enough that the USSR never took the risk. In that sense, NATO was a triumphant success. But is it still the best possible vehicle for the advancement of its members' collective interests?

I ask the question with genuine regret. In the days when NATO had an obvious purpose, I was one of its biggest supporters. As a teenager, I was a member of an organisation called Peace Through NATO, which used to hold debates against CND supporters. Our side would always begin by smugly reminding the CNDers that it was thanks to the nuclear deterrent that we were free to hold such debates at all. How tiresome they must have found us.

The end of the Cold War removed NATO's foundational rationale. In order to find itself a new role, the alliance took to expanding rapidly. But, in doing so, there is a danger that it has made a fiction of Article V: the clause that treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd certainly be in favour of fighting for the freedom of the Baltics. Britain did so once before. The only direct clash between our Armed Services and the Red Army was in Estonia in 1918. We lost a number of sailors, who were buried locally. When the Soviets annexed Estonia, they dynamited every monument that dated from the independence period. But the graves of the British sailors were kept hidden and tended by local patriots. They are still there. I hope the British would fight again. But would the rest?

The US Does Not Like Surprises from Russia

Ultimately, Russia Loses.

Nostalgic for Chechnya

While the pundits and the politicians scramble to find a response to the NeoSoviet attack on Georgia, you have to ask yourself what will Putin get out of this venture? The short answer is nothing good. A few of the obvious liabilities are:

• Russia and Putin have no credibility in any European country and less in the US.
  
• Russia has bought another bloody guerrilla war in the Caucasus.
• The long term prospects for Russia being a reliable energy partner has been diminished.
• European investment in Russia will decline. It will become more expensive.
• Revenue from energy exports will be diverted to unnecessary military spending at the expensive of necessary infrastructure.
  
• Emigration from Russia will accelerate.
• Drug abuse, AIDS, and alcoholism will increase.
• European acceptance for the US missile defense system will improve.
• Russian political influence will decline.
  

Russia has shot itself in the foot. It will find itself in a difficult position to stand down and will pay an awful and bloody price for a rash and foolish mistake.

____________________

RUSSIAN “TANDEMOCRACY” STUMBLES INTO A WAR

By Pavel K. Baev
Eurasia Daily Monitor

Monday, August 11, 2008

Moscow was disconcertingly taken by surprise with the sharp escalation of hostilities in South Ossetia last Friday. The most apparent part of the problem was the lack of leadership, as President Dmitry Medvedev departed to a Volga resort and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. The greater problem was the serious military and political miscalculations that had resulted in the apparently chaotic emergency decision-making (Kommersant, August 9; Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8). It is hard to blame the military for missing the Georgian preparations for the large-scale offensive, since the command of the Armed Forces had been thoroughly reshuffled: The Chief of the General Staff was replaced in early June, his first deputy (the head of the Main Operational Department) was fired in early July and not replaced, and the commander of the Ground Forces was replaced in the first days of August (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 5).

The main blunder, however, was political, as the Kremlin seriously overestimated its ability to dominate the situation in the conflict zone. The large-scale military exercises conducted across the North Caucasus in July were supposed to demonstrate Russia’s superiority in projecting power (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 18). In parallel, the withdrawal of the railway troops from Abkhazia in early August symbolized Moscow’s flexibility and responsiveness to the peace proposals advanced by Germany (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 8). Putin was confident that his performance at the NATO Bucharest summit had effectively blocked Georgia’s Atlantic aspirations; several stern “warnings” should have ensured that Georgia would not dare make any pro-active move. Surprise was so complete that Putin, according to those who saw him in Beijing, was pale with barely controlled rage, which he tried to convey to U.S. President George Bush and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (Moscow echo, August 8).

The issue for Putin was not only that he had never expected Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to launch a blitzkrieg in the opening day of the Olympic games, but also that the crucial stage in Moscow was left for Medvedev to perform. It was only at 15:00 local time that Russian Security Council gathered to consider the available options, and Medvedev was acutely aware that any sign of hesitation on his part would destroy the little credibility he had gathered during the first 100 days of his presidency (www.gazeta.ru, August 9). The result was a brief statement condemning Georgia’s “aggression” and asserting that “We will not allow the deaths of our fellow citizens to go unpunished.” By that time, however, the Russian massive armored column was already approaching Tskhinvali, and it could only be assumed that it was indeed Medvedev who had given the “go-ahead” order earlier in the morning.

In the highly stressful first day of an unexpected war, Medvedev had to disregard both the agreements that limited Russia’s peacekeeping role of monitoring the ceasefire (with no provisions for “peace enforcement”) and the domestic legislation that required a resolution of the Federation Council authorizing the use of Armed Forces outside Russia’s borders. The TV propaganda machine was instantly switched on providing non-stop coverage of the “humanitarian catastrophe,” and the statements by military officials that the Georgian soldiers were “finishing off” wounded Russian peacekeepers at the captured observation posts were provocative to the extreme (RIA-Novosti, August 8).

The immediate task of the military operation was clear--to push back the Georgian troops that had captured Tskhinvali after heavy bombardment, but the heights around the city were taken only on Sunday. The key problem for the Russian troops was that reinforcements and supplies could be moved in only by one narrow road under fire from Georgian positions. The lack of quick demonstrative success prompted Moscow to opt for punishing air-strikes on Gori and Poti, while the bombs dropped on the Vasiani Airbase outside Tbilisi were probably intended to force the evacuation of U.S. military instructors. This disproportional response allowed Saakashvili to portray Georgia as a victim of aggression and generated international pressure for a ceasefire (Moscow echo, August 9). Medvedev, however, had to listen first to the generals who argued that control over Tskhinvali could not be secured without opening the key supply line to the north, which required storming several Georgian villages, from Tamarasheni to Kemerti. The population of this enclave had to be evacuated to Georgia in order to prevent brutal “ethnic cleansing” by volunteers from the North Caucasus.

Driven by this war logic, Medvedev might discover that his “‘liberal lawyer” image has transmogrified into a hawkish quasi-warrior, who is, in fact, a hostage to several clans of reinvigorated siloviki (www.gazeta.ru, August 9). He might think that his grasp on power in the experimental “tandem” has suddenly strengthened and even find it enjoyable to give Putin an order to change his schedule and go to Vladikavkaz to coordinate the humanitarian relief operations. Putin, however, thrives in the “dirty war” environment, and he easily trapped Medvedev with the tough statement about genocide that would involve “mortal damage” to Georgia’s territorial integrity (www.newsru.com, August 9).

The catch is that Russia cannot maintain its ambivalent stance of supporting the secessionist quasi-states and acknowledging that they remain parts of Georgia; nor can it keep pretending that it is not a party to the conflict but merely the guarantor of a non-existent peace process. Prior to the war, Moscow had been very irritated by Eduard Kokoity’s corrupt regime, but now to all intents and purposes it owns South Ossetia and has not only to provide aid but to resolve the status issue (Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8). Medvedev is forced to make decisions that he is very uncomfortable with and to place them in a new strategic line for the Caucasus that he is not really qualified to draw, while Putin takes charge over practical matters like distributing money and resources. Spoils from this “victory” would hasten Russia’s drift from democracy, worsen its investment climate, and add more tension to relations with the West and with Ukraine. Diplomats may contemplate a return to the status quo ante, but Russia has changed in the course of this entirely unnecessary war, and the damage cannot be undone.

Putin Reveals His Soul to EU and NATO. Georgia is Just the Beginning.

Georgian Soldier

Georgia: Vladimir Putin sends emphatic message of global importance
Russia's pounding of Georgia means it will use force to protect all 25 million Russians in states that belonged to the Soviet Union

By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor Telegraph
Last Updated: 6:23PM BST 11 Aug 2008

By seizing the opportunity to pound Georgia with air strikes and military incursions, Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, is sending an emphatic message with global consequences.

The curtain has fallen on the era when Nato steadily expanded into Eastern Europe and onwards to embrace former republics of the Soviet Union - and Russia was able to respond with nothing more than bluster.

Moreover, Mr Putin has demonstrated that the Kremlin will use force to protect the 25 million Russians who inhabit the Soviet Union's successor states, well beyond the mother country's borders.
The importance of this message cannot be exaggerated. Whether the populations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia's two breakaway regions, are genuinely Russian or merely the recipients of passports recently issued from Moscow matters little. Dmitry Medvedev made the crucial point last week when he stated that as Russia's president, he was obliged to protect the "security and dignity" of all Russian citizens, wherever they may live.

Countries ranging from Latvia to Moldova to Ukraine have large Russian minorities. If their presence justified Russian intervention in Georgia, might the same happen in these countries? Is the fighting in Georgia merely a prelude to what lies ahead in nations close to the heart of Europe?

Some Russians in the "Near Abroad" - the term used by Moscow's officials to refer to former Soviet Republics - inhabit clearly defined enclaves, uncannily similar to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russians of Moldova have carved out the self-styled "Dniester Republic", a small, lawless region which Moscow effectively controls.

Elsewhere, Russian minorities have no enclaves, but they still enjoy significant influence simply because of their size. The 900,000 Russians in Latvia comprise well over a third of the population and the 500,000 in Estonia account for about 30 per cent.

Ukraine is the most crucial link in the chain. This aspiring member of both Nato and the European Union has 11 million Russians, concentrated in its eastern regions and particularly in the Crimea, where they comprise about 70 per cent of the population.
Jonathan Eyal, the head of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said that Russia's key priority was to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, but further military intervention was unlikely.

"They don't need to do the same elsewhere simply because what is happening in Georgia has already driven home the message that what happens in these Russian enclaves, wherever they are, is for Russia to determine and no-one else," he said.

Mr Eyal said that Moscow's operation in Georgia would serve as a "deterrent" to any other country with a Russian minority. "The message is 'you do not touch any of them because the Russian military is determined to defend them even if it means crossing an international border with their tanks."

Moscow had "indirectly given a military guarantee" to Russian minorities across the former Soviet Union, especially in Ukraine.

This goes beyond merely guaranteeing their safety and the status of any enclaves they may have created. It also amounts to Moscow threatening force against any former Soviet Republics aspiring to Nato membership.

Ukraine was officially promised admission to Nato during the Alliance's last summit in April, although Russian objections ensured that no timetable was given.
When Mr Putin sent the tanks into Georgia, Mr Eyal there was "absolutely no doubt that one of his key calculations was Ukraine".

In essence, Mr Putin was seeking to deter Ukraine from pressing ahead with its plan to join Nato - and Mr Eyal believes that Russia's plan has succeeded.

If so, the balance of power in Europe has fundamentally changed and Russia has, through the use of force against Georgia, seized the power to veto Nato's future membership.

Ukraine is by far the most important of the former Soviet republics. Columns of Russian tanks hundreds of miles from its borders may now have changed its future.

Wishful Thinking and Loathing on Georgia

 Loathing Material.

Looking at the entire spectrum of media, one has to come to the conclusion that no one knows what to do with the "Czar Baby" of Georgia. It is too small and too close to Russia for anyone to risk an expanding conflict with Russia. It is the perfect place for Vladimir Putin to further his dreams for Russia. This is after all, all about Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Putin is all about western wishful thinking.

I confess to a deep antipathy towards Russia. My entire military experience regarded them with suspicion and loathing. Some years after I exited the military, I had an occasion to be a guest of the Soviet government as a member of a Scandinavian/American trade visit. The visit was during the early Yeltsin years and there was  noise about a changing Russia. My ten days in Moscow and the military town of Tambov convinced me that Russia was a corrupt society from top to bottom. I did not trust them nor did I believe for one moment they would change for the better. The visit also confirmed my belief that the Russians were deeply humiliated and shamed by where events had brought them and that nothing should be done by the West to further humiliate them. No one asked for my advice and I had no position to give it, but the talk of expanding Nato was troubling to me.

The expansion of Nato was always problematic and made no logical sense. As the EU expanded to include ex-Soviet occupied states, military cooperation and treaties would be necessary, but that should have been inside of an organization that was not dominated by the US. That organization was the EU.  

Nato was the necessary creation of the Cold War. Nato should not have been expanded, but the EU could have been expanded as a Nato member. That would have been a distinction with a difference. That did not happen.

The outcome is before us. Georgia has walked into a trap, set by Putin. No direct military assistance can be given to Georgia. The Georgians will suffer greatly for their error and wishful thinking that the US and Europe will be there for them as an ally. The US cavalry will not be riding to their rescue. The best that will be done for Georgia will be well short of Georgian naive expectations. 

The loathing will spread, wishful thinking will not.

Georgia, Annihilation of a Democracy. What Would Obama Do?

"Change" that you can bet will impress Putin's Russia.

WASHINGTON (Reuters)

- U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama on Friday urged restraint by both Russia and Georgia in the conflict over the breakaway region of South Ossetia in Georgia.

Obama, a Democrat, also echoed the Bush administration in supporting the territorial integrity of Georgia.

"I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict," Obama said in a statement. "Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war. Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected."

Obama called for direct talks among all sides and said the United States, U.N. Security Council and other parties should try to help bring about a peaceful resolution.

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Seize the moment. Expose to the American people the incredible shrinking stature of the man who would be POTUS in times of war. He has nothing to say and knows nothing of how we find ourselves in this situation. This statement could have come from Oscar Arias of Costa Rica. The sounds of Russian tanks should be the sounds of a crushing defeat for the community organizer.

Do not get me wrong. McCain is no novice to the region and has not always been right in his decisions. In fact he was an early supporter (1999) of US involvement in Kosovo. At the time, most Americans and Europeans supported US action in Kosovo. I personally felt it was a mistake. The expansion of Nato east confused me and made little sense to me. Now, I find myself in the awkward position presented by the binary world of American politics in having to choose between a man that does not have a clue and one who has made decisions where I disagreed.

We have committed the United States to supporting freedom and democracy in parts of the world where there has been little of either. Georgia is where that decision has led us. We have trained them, armed them and encouraged their movement into Nato. Russia is now striking back. Georgia is the new Kosovo. What happens in Georgia will have unknown consequences to Europe and the United States for a generation. We are facing the real Russian face of Vladimir Putin. Putin is no community organizer. He is a ruthless experienced brutal KGB boss. He has the money and the motivation to re-establish a more Soviet Russia. Hope ain't gonna cut it.

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Georgians Leave South Ossetia As Focus Shifts to Black Sea



Georgian officials said Sunday that they had withdrawn their forces from South Ossetia. Russan navy vessels meanwhile arrive at Georgia's Black Sea coast in what could become the next hotspot of the war.

Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia told AFP news service on Sunday, Aug. 10, that his country's forces had "practically left" all of South Ossetia "as an expression of good will and our willingness to stop military confrontation."

Georgian and Russian forces had exchanged artillery fire in the early hours of Sunday, Aug. 10, South Ossetia officials said, while Russian planes bombed the runway of a military airfield near Tbilisi international airport according to a Georgian official.

Russia sending more soldiers, ships to Georgian coast


Moscow and Tbilisi have been unable to agree on a ceasefire deal
Russian warships meanwhile arrived at the Georgian Black Sea coast, according to news reports.

"The navy was ordered not to allow supplies of weapons and military hardware into Georgia by sea," a Russian navy source was quoted as saying by Russian news service Interfax, Reuters reported.

The Russian ships were blocking access to the port for ships carrying grain and fuel, Lomaia told the AFP. He added that Russian planes bombed a military airfield some five kilometers outside the capital Tbilisi.

Georgia said a Russian air raid had "completely devastated" the Black Sea port of Poti in attacks that the country's UN ambassador likened to "a full-scale military invasion"

This was followed up with air raids on Gori, the main Georgian city closest to South Ossetia. Apartment blocks in Gori were left in flames and residents said scores of people were killed.

Georgia: "Annihilation of a democracy"


Georgia's offensive to take the enclave of South Ossetia has been unsuccessful
Russian bombers also headed for the coast, Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili said Saturday after air raids on the port of Poti and the city of Gori, where inhabitants said scores of people were killed.

"What they are doing is nothing to do with conflict, it is about annihilation of a democracy on their borders," Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said in an interview with the BBC.

Saakashvili declared a "state of war" on Saturday but also offered a ceasefire to Russia.

But a meeting of the UN Security Council on Saturday failed to agree on a call for an immediate ceasefire. Russia's ambassador to the UN said Moscow would not agree to a ceasefire until Georgia removed all its troops from South Ossetia.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Moscow viewed the Georgian offensive as "something that has elements of genocide and war crimes situation," and Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev said he would order an investigation of Georgian crimes against civilians.

US Deputy Ambassador Alejandro Wolff made it clear Washington blamed Russia for escalating the fighting.

"This is a conflict that is expanding and getting out of control," he said. "The proximate cause is the massive escalation perpetrated by outside forces."

Conflict widens to Abkhazia

Fears of the conflict spreading added urgency to international calls for a ceasefire.

The conflict spread to Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia, where the separatist government said its forces had launched attacks on Georgian troops. Georgia accused Russia of staging the attacks in the Kodori Gorge region, the only part of Abkhazia controlled by Georgia.

Britain said a joint European-US mission was due to have arrived in Georgia late Saturday to try to help broker a ceasefire with Russia.

"We have urged an immediate halt to the violence and a stand-down by all troops," US President George W. Bush told reporters. "We call for an end to the Russian bombings."

The European Union "strongly states its commitment to the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Georgia and its internationally recognized borders and urges Russia to respect them," said a statement released by France, which hold the EU's rotating presidency and said it would host a meeting of EU foreign ministers early next week.

Source of friction


Russia and Georgia disagree on the number of casualties and refugees
Russian and South Ossetian estimates put the death toll on the South Ossetian side at a minimum of 1,400. All but a few of the dead were civilians, according to Moscow. Georgian figures ranged from 82 dead, including 37 civilians, to a total of some 130 dead.

South Ossetia broke from Georgia in the early 1990s. It has been a constant source of friction between Georgia and Russia, which opposes Tbilisi's aspirations of joining NATO and has supported the separatists without recognizing their independence.

Russia backs the separatist government in South Ossetia and sent in tanks and troops on Friday in response to pro-Western Georgia's military offensive to take back the province which broke away in the early 1990s after a separatist war.

DW staff (sms)