“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Oakland Cops and Youtube Nation

Hat Tip: Desert Rat

I looked at the video posted by DR and added the additional video. The park was a filthy mess, and some of the demonstrators were clearly provocative to the police, but I did not see any violence that would have warranted the firing of tear gas canisters point blank into the small crowd. The police seemed confused and  poorly directed. They lacked direction and to my view were unprepared,  poorly trained and seemed to have little coordinated supervision.

The politicians did not do their jobs by allowing the setting up of camps in the park in the first place. If nothing else, all American cities have strict laws on littering and loitering. Public demonstration is protected speech, vandalism and squatting is not. The Oakland police did themselves no favors and the demonstrators hardly rose to the level of a dangerous the mob. Youtube will sort it out.


  1. There are about 60 Million cars on the road in China, and India, combined. There are a little over 240 Million cars on the road in the U.S.

    To get to where we are China, and India would have to add about Two Billion Autos to their fleet.

    This, alone, would more than Triple the world's demand for Gasoline.

    That's if the other 5 Billion people in the world never added a single car.

    Did I mention that gasoline production has been, essentially, flat since 2005?

  2. As for the OWS folks: God Bless'em.

    Anything that draws attention to, and makes life a little uncomfortable for, that bunch of thieving bastards that busted us is "Aces" with me.

  3. About 77 Million Autos will be added to the Worldwide fleet this year. Probably, less than 20 million will be scrapped (mostly in the U.S.)

    That leaves a "net addition" of over 50 Million Autos. That will require somewhere in the range of another 1.2 million barrels of Oil/Day to be produced.

    The same will happen next year, and the year after, in infinitum.

    A lot of "poor" Americans have cars. A half a billion or so "Middle Class" Non-Americans Don't have cars. How long do you suppose that can last in a time of "Flat" oil production?

  4. From July of 2005 until July of 2011 World Oil Production (Crude + Condensate) FELL 20,000 barrels/day.

  5. How're you liking it so far? :)

  6. Lessee, over a Six Year Period, Prices Doubled, and Production Fell 20,000 bpd.

    Musta been that "peak demand" T keeps talking about.

  7. The cops are only doing the dirty work for the financial capitalist cronies based in London, New York and Washington. They are going to have to learn some day that "Real" political economies are not "Casinos" for the biggest players in a few fundamentally morrally currupt financial Wall St speculators feeding off their own greed for influence and power. The cops need to be educated. The wrong people are being gassed.

  8. So, how's China doing? Well, with their $2 Trillion + in the bank, and their huge Trade Surpluses they can allow their currency to grow stronger, thus mitigating the higher prices of imported oil,

    while, We, on the other hand, with our enormous Trade Deficits, will continue to see our currency Weaken, thus making imported oil even more of a burden.

    So, by all means, let's support the Republicans, and the Tea Partiers, as they totally deconstruct our nascent Renewable Fuels Business.

  9. Someone must pay.

  10. Anyone with more than me is an evil greedy bastard.

  11. The evil, greedy bastards must pay.

  12. The capitalist system must pay.

  13. Old people sucking the lifeblood out of younger generations must pay.

  14. Yeah, when the younger generation pays me back for wiping their asses, and putting food in their bellies, I'll "pay."

  15. Pensioners, bankrupting the system must pay.

  16. Communities all over the country are going broke trying to pay for old farts to high on the hog for thirty years.

    Time for a haircut.

  17. Rufus: Lessee, over a Six Year Period, Prices Doubled, and Production Fell 20,000 bpd.

    Musta been that "peak demand" T keeps talking about.

    No, it must the oversupply of all those dollars Benny and the Inkjets are printing, chasing the same black gold.

  18. AND...the oil futures the hedge funds bought because interest rates on T-bills suck.

  19. Not pensioners, anon, but welfare recipients.

    Federal welfare, like Social Security and Medicare, they are bankrupting the system, hand in hand with the unsustainable footprint of empire, those 700 military bases on foreign soil.

  20. Then why are houses so much cheaper, Ms T, if there is so much money chasing them.

    No, you are missing a key component to what ever recovery formula you are promoting.

  21. There is real economic deflation in the marketplace, not inflation.

  22. Bernanke and the boys have not printed enough, to generate inflation.

    They have not printed enough to even cover the loss of liquidity that accompanied the real estate market collapse.

  23. Take out Oil, and inflation is running about 2%/yr, T.

    And, it wouldn't even be that much w/o huge increases in Education, and Healthcare.

    No, I don't think you "Benny, and the Inkjets" argument holds water, . . . er ink.

  24. Social Security and Medicare are Federal problems.

    Medicaid is a state problem imposed by the Feds.

    Pensions are city, county and state problems.

    Never trust anyone over thirty.

  25. What you're missing, T, is the "Net" 50 Million New Cars every year, and the Drop in Oil Extracted.

  26. The Motley Fools ....

    15. Private jobs growth over the past two years has been faster than it was from 2001-2003. Public job losses have been a major factor in our current jobs crisis.

    14. If federal, state, and local governments hadn't been slashing jobs since 2009, today's unemployment rate would be nearly a full percentage point lower.


  27. 2. Food prices invariably come up when people talk about inflation. But average disposable income has risen twice as fast as food prices over the past 50 years. There's been fairly steady food deflation over time.

  28. Yeah, most people don't realize the Tremendous productivity gains in agriculture.

    Modern farmers don't use 1/10th the fuel per bushel that we did when I was a kid.

    And, they get twice the bushels per acre.

  29. Rufus: What you're missing, T, is the "Net" 50 Million New Cars every year, and the Drop in Oil Extracted.

    I'm more interested in passenger-miles, Rufus. Here in the States, I can hop in my car at 6 AM and be 786 miles away checking it at a hotel near Yellowstone National Park at 7:30 PM. Can you do something like that in China or India? Or do they just go from home to work so they can pay off the nut on their condo that is twelve times their annual salary?

  30. On, probably, about the Same fertilizer per acre.

  31. They don't use as much fuel per vehicle as we do, T; but, when you start adding 50 Million Vehicles/Yr . . . . . ?

    Whether it's 500 gal/yr, or 350 gal/yr starts to become less, and less, important.

  32. The cities of Asia, the ones I visited in Korea being the standard, were not designed for vehicle traffic on the scale rufus is describing.

    The rest of the whirled will not be rising to the US standard, on the trend line of the status que.

    No, the US standard will continue to trend towards the global norm.

    With the lower levels of the working class losing their mobility, here.

    Not being able to afford the fuel,

    Whether a cause or effect, you all can decide upon, at your leisure.

  33. There are not enough parking spaces in Seoul, rufus, to even contemplate US levels of auto ownership, there.

  34. Beijing already has a "limit" on the number of new cars that can be registered in the city (the new cities might be a bit more "car-friendly.")

    However, if you only put that 2 Billion Chinese, and Indian adults that don't have car on Scooters, the increase in gasoline demand would be enormous. (say 500 Million gallons/day - 12 Million Barrels/Day.) That's more than We use, now.

    No, what will happen, among other things, is We will get more energy-efficient, and use a lot more biofuels, electrify some trains/mass transit, etc, and a whole lot of Chinese, Indian, and Bangladeshi citizens will never know the joy of motorized transport (at least, from an ownership perspective.)

  35. Why is the US still involved, a decade on?

    -- Insurgents mounted several attacks across Afghanistan Saturday, including a car bomb that hit a NATO military vehicle in downtown Kabul, killing thirteen.

    A U.S. official told Associated Press all 13 NATO service members killed in the suicide bombing were American troops.

    An attacker in an Afghan military uniform in the southern part of the country also turned his weapon on members of the U.S.-led military coalition, killing two before he was killed in return fire.

  36. Rufus: Take out Oil, and inflation is running about 2%/yr, T.

    That's funny, Rufus. Sure, take out dollar-denominated commodities (fuel, copper, corn) and inflation is 2%. But dollar denominated commodities is precisely what we're talking about.

    Gasoline consumption (barrels per day):

    1 United States 9,285,670
    2 China 1,285,530

    So gasoline per head:

    US heads=307 million
    China heads=1331 million

    Gas per US head: 1 barrel every 33 days.

    Gas per Chinese head: 1 barrel every 1035 days.

    In other words, per capita consumption of gasoline in China is 3% that of per capita consumption in the US. Total consumption in China is 14% of the US, which is even less than the population ratio between the two countries (23%).

  37. As I've said many times: I'm Not a "doomer;" but you've gotta have your head stuck far enough up your ass to see your tonsils if you don't recognize that big changes are coming - and, pretty much "sooner," rather than later.

  38. And, some of those changes are going to cause a fair amount of pain, albeit, to some extent, temporary.

  39. And THAT tells me at least half of the gasoline is being used for construction, rather than commuting to work. And that construction activity is falling off a cliff now.

  40. Anon said Never trust anyone over thirty.

    Anyone who says that is waaaaay over thirty.

  41. Exactly, Ms T.

    The US cannot continue to use oil at the current levels, when China's share doubles, to 28% of US.

    Coming in line with an inverted population ratio.

    If one factored the real estate losses, into the inflation rate, well, that number would be in the negative range, not +2%.

    The basket of goods used to measure inflation is skewed, to maintain a moderate rate of inflation.

    Which the Federals use as a guaranteed baseline of growth of their own influence.

  42. That's my point, T. :)

    They have the unsatisfied Demand, and the money to, to some extent, satiate that demand.

    China will put 17 Million cars on the road this year (while taking very few off the road.)

    Next year it will, supposedly, be 20 Million.

    And, That's just China.

    The Non-U.S. part of the world will probably net out to 50 Million New Cars on the Road This year

    And, about the same, or a little more, Next year.

    Like the man said, "50 Million, here; 50 Million, there - pretty soon you're talking a lot of oil demand."

  43. 49% of all US energy consumption goes into buildings. By 2030 that could and should be reduced to under 10%. That is all the stimulus you need.

  44. Chinese oil consumption will easily double, as they have such a low baseline to start from, especially considering the size of the population.

    India, much the same.

    The US, the most agriculturally productive land in all the whirled.

    To ignore that requires blinders.

  45. T, I don't remember exactly what the number is; it seems like it was a little over $3,000.00 income where a worker (globally speaking) starts desiring a 4 wheel automobile.

    Whether I'm a little low on this number, or whatever, really isn't the important thing. The fact is: there Is a Middle Class developing around the world in places that haven't, historically, had much of a "middle class."

    I think one would have a Really Hard time trying to make a scientific argument for the world having reached "peak Demand."

  46. When I was younger, Deuce, in New York there was a lot of heating oil burned in home furnaces.

    Is that still the standard?

  47. Man, I don't understand that. Electricity would have to be so much cheaper.

  48. That would have been smarter than cash for clunkers. Convert oil systems to natural gas, and or electric

  49. Thank youtube. Before the video was released the police denied using flash-bang grenades. The flash-bang grenade the police threw at Marine Olsen and his fellow protesters, who were trying to run to his aid, exploded in the middle of the group, when Olsen was already injured and lying on the ground.

    The clip includes footage of the grenade, the explosion, the panic and the cop who threw it. Marine veteran Scott Olsen now suffers grave injuries inflicted by the dangerous insurgents in our midst, our own cops.

  50. We have heard the obligatory announcement from Mayor Quan who says she was "ultimately" responsible. No, Ms Quan, you were directly responsible. The Oakland Police are your gang of savages. They would not have acted as they did without warning unless they were first given assurances that this was what was required of them. If Mayor Quan was Marine Major Quan, she would be guilty of giving an illegal order and responsible for its consequences.

  51. Rufus: I think one would have a Really Hard time trying to make a scientific argument for the world having reached "peak Demand."

    Tell me if you spot a trend here, Rufus. Oil demand in 2011 has remained flat at 89.2 mbd.

    "The TOD majority view is that peak oil (total liquids) occurred in July 2008 at 87.9 mbd." (2010)

    "T Boone Pickens says Peak Oil is already here - 85 million barrels per day ... (October 16, 2009)

    The all liquid peak is now at 86.05 mbpd (Oil Drum, May 2008)

    "The peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd" (Oil Drum, Sep 2007)

    In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006" (IEA)

    "The worldwide rate of conventional crude oil production peaked at the end of 2004, and has remained between 72 and 74 million barrels per day (mbpd) ever since..." (ASPO-USA 2005)


    Just google "peak oil YYYY mpd" (with YYYY for the year. Great fun!

  52. You're looking at "Total Liquids" on some of these, T. Others include Natural Gas Liquids. Others include Ethanol, biodiesel, and Refinery Gain.

    To get a true picture you have to pick out one metric, by one organization, and stick with it.

    For ex: This is the EIA Crude + Condensate (Real Oil - no ethanol, no natural gas liquids, no refinery gain, no biodiesel, cattle poop, etc.)

    This is the Actual PRODUCTION

    No matter what I say; No matter what Boone Pickens says, no matter what some dingbat doomer on TOD says

    This is the Numbers. Enjoy.

  53. Since this series ends in July, I like to compare July to July numbers.

    The reason for this is, some large fields (for ex. North Sea) go down at about the same time every year. If you don't take this into consideration you can be off as much as a million barrels/day.

    So, Jan to Jan numbers are fine. As are Aug to Aug , or Dec to Dec; but I try to avoid, for ex. Jan to Sept numbers.

  54. Rufus: This is the Numbers. Enjoy.

    Okay, from your own link:

    World oil supply, Jan 2005: 84,174.893
    World oil supply, Jan 2011: 88,342.219

    By July this had fallen to 86,838.723. No surprise, there was a little tussle in Libya and they were supplying 2% of the world's oil supply before that started.

  55. T, you're using "total" which includes a 2 Million barrel/day Global buildup in Ethanol, and Biodiesel, and probably close to another million barrels of Nat gas liquids.

    You want to use Crude + Concentrate if yoy want to get the Real "Oil" numbers. That said, Jan usually does run a bit above July for a couple of reasons.

    Look at This.

    For the Six years from July '99 to July'05 Prices were rising nicely and crude production rose from 65,866,464 to 73,770,009, an increase of 7,903,545.

  56. Now, from July '05 the price of oil continued to rise, rapidly. So, did we get another 7.9 Million bpd increase in production?

    Nope. We got a Decrease of 20,000 barrels.

    Doesn't that tell you anything?

  57. Occupy Madison loses permit due to public masturbation.

    Is that what they mean by the 99%? That the 1% who swear they don't are lying about it?

  58. Halloween. Better than Christmas.