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Thursday, July 04, 2013

"Egypt is becoming a dysfunctional, hopeless, ungovernable state. Where Mubarak and Morsi failed, another failure is very likely. Two different trends dovetail at the pyramids’ foot. One is global - a rebellion of the urban middle class. What began in Tahrir, moved to Rothschild, erupted in Istanbul and boiled over in Rio De Janeiro has returned to Tahrir in a big way. As in the rest of the world, in Egypt the youngsters connected to the Internet are no longer willing to accept not being connected to the spigots of the government, and are therefore toppling it.”


Turkey on the Nile
Egypt 2013 appears as a state with no solution. On the one hand the economy is collapsing and rapidly approaching meltdown. On the other hand there’s no civilian force to impose law and order.
By Ari Shavit | Jul.04, 2013 | 5:26 AM | HAARETZ

The week that Hosni Mubarak was ousted, a senior Israeli official was asked what would happen in Egypt. The official answered in his favorite language, English: Turkey one, Turkey two or Iran - a seemingly democratic government run by the army, a seemingly democratic government run by Islam, or an Islamist regime.
Two and a half years later, the possibility of getting an Iran in Egypt can clearly be ruled out. The Nile country will not become a theocracy ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood in the near future. But from the beginning of 2011, the other two possibilities have been vying with each other in Cairo.
What is happening before our eyes is a well organized Egyptian attempt to replace the new Turkish alternative of religious rule in democratic guise with the old Turkish alternative of military rule in democratic guise.
But as Turkey one replaces Turkey two, a third option emerges - disorder. While the Islamic threat to Egypt’s future is diminishing, the new, growing threat is one of chaos. The good news is very good - political Islam is not invincible. The religious wave that flooded the Middle East in the past two years is not the last historic wave.
As of today, the Muslim Brotherhood failed to establish a lasting regime and a lasting reality. While the Soviet revolution founded a tyranny that lasted 70 years, the Sunni Islamic revolution didn’t set up a functioning political system to preserve its hegemony for even one year. Anyone who feared a century of dark caliphates was wrong. Anyone who believed in the new Egyptians’ life forces and desire for freedom was right. Within an extremely short time our neighbors from the south learned that Islam is not the solution, and that they must seek the solution elsewhere.
But the bad news is troubling. Egypt 2013 appears as a state with no solution. On the one hand the economy is collapsing and rapidly approaching meltdown. On the other hand there’s no civilian force to impose law and order. The expectations of the Google age are high, while the reality of hungry mouths is intolerable. Between the expectations and reality there is no meeting point, and between the spirit of freedom and the crumbling republic there is no starting point.
Consequently, Egypt is becoming a dysfunctional, hopeless, ungovernable state. Where Mubarak and Morsi failed, another failure is very likely. Two different trends dovetail at the pyramids’ foot. One is global - a rebellion of the urban middle class. What began in Tahrir, moved to Rothschild, erupted in Istanbul and boiled over in Rio De Janeiro has returned to Tahrir in a big way. As in the rest of the world, in Egypt the youngsters connected to the Internet are no longer willing to accept not being connected to the spigots of the government, and are therefore toppling it.
The second trend is an Arab one - the collapse of secular tyranny and the failure of religious tyranny have generated constant unrest. In the absence of a strong dictator, an intelligent Kadi or a Jeffersonian democracy, there is nobody to regulate public life and restrain the masses.
The merging of global rebellion with the Arab loss of fear has released in Cairo 2013 a concussion blast no regime can withstand. Not the previous regime, not the present one nor the next one. In the absence of a government, an exciting, terrifying situation of uprisings was created - uprisings that are leading Egypt to the brink of an abyss.
Ultimately, the only chance is Turkey one. In the present day Egypt and present day Middle East, anyone hoping for more than enlightened generals can give - will get less. But the question whether the Egyptian army will be able to give the people modern enlightenment remains open. Chaos crouches on the threshold. The new danger hovering over the Middle East is that of complete disorder.

23 comments:

  1. and as Stephen was walking down the beach, he saw, all of a sudden, the Form Divine, by the sea, and said to himself, in the only language he had, Mother of God....

    Support the women everywhere

    bpos

    ReplyDelete
  2. The bifurcation continues. The talking heads on tv have it all wrong; this was a crappy jobs report. The job gains were all part-time. In fact, full-time employment fell.

    No gains in Manufacturing, Mining (oil production,) or Construction.

    Oil and China. China and oil.

    Our export customers are running out of purchasing power, and what they are purchasing is coming more and more from the low-wage countries (China.)

    Egypt is screwed. No more oil exports. Tourism in the pits.

    Syria is in the same boat.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Productivity is soaring; median income is falling. How does that happen? Paradigm shift.

    Throw away the rulebook.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Digital Revolution has finally arrived. Have fun.

      Delete
  4. Labor has to be rewarded by corporations in the form of higher wages and benefits, or corporations will have it taken away from them with transfer payments. It is much more efficient to do the voluntary approach. There is certainly no justification for this immigration bill to go forward.

    If that goes forward and transfer payments do increase because of the unwillingness of corporations to place employment as a priority, everyone will lose as there will be a continuous tamp down on wages and an increasing demand for government services.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except, the big boys no longer pay much in taxes (transfer payments.) They have rigged the system to the point that they can dodge their tax liabilities with offshore accounts. (Corporate Taxes, when we were booming in the sixties and seventies, were 30%; now they're down to about 10%.)

      Delete
    2. That should have been "30% of taxes received" down to "10% of taxes received."

      Delete
  5. Well, it's "honey-do" day; later. :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Power to Modern Egyptian Women!!

    What is going on there is Fascinating.

    American financed jets over Cairo.

    Return on the investment?

    What will Barky do now?

    bpos

    ReplyDelete
  7. Meanwhile, in other shocking news, we have learned from the testimony of the medical examiner that T.M. 'suffered' for one to ten minutes after getting a slug in the gut from Z. who was having his brains beaten out on the concrete by T.M.

    bpos

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. boobie is attempting to mislead us, again.

      He says he watches FOX News, which must not be true.
      If he were a FOX News watcher he would have heard the police detective testify that Z's injuries were minor, he would have seen that the back of Z's head had a small cut upon it.
      Z's "brains" were not being beaten out on the concrete.

      The testimony and evidence give lie to boobie's description of the event.
      Z's brains were not not on the concrete, his injuries were minor.

      boobie is promoting racial division in the US, with misrepresentations of events, once again

      Delete
    2. No, no, I am concerned with the level of actual evidence.

      Couple more pounds on the concrete and you are dead.

      bpos

      Delete
    3. Rat: If he were a FOX News watcher he would have heard the police detective testify that Z's injuries were minor, he would have seen that the back of Z's head had a small cut upon it.
      Z's "brains" were not being beaten out on the concrete.


      Notice the distortion of the idea.

      Having one's skull beaten on the pavement is having one's "brain's beaten out"

      However to one that lies, distorts and twists all reason into some unrecognizable pile of shit? There is no discussion.

      A pathological liar "desert rat" is incapable of reasoned discussion.

      Why bother?

      Delete
  8. Meanwhile the 'Judge' in this case has ruled that toxicology evidence that T.M was high on drugs at the time of the confrontation with Z. is not to be admitted.


    bpos

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TM is not on trial, Z is.

      The actual evidence is that his brains were not damaged, his skull, intact.
      A small cut on the back of the head is not life threatening.

      The evidence of his injuries is clear, the photos do not lie.
      The testimony of the detective is clear, Z's injuries were minor, not life threatening.

      That is what is in evidence at this point in time.

      boobie is ignoring the evidence that has been presented so far.
      He is inserting his opinion as evidence, which it is not.


      boobie is projecting his racist proclivities into the trial, then says that his opinion is in evidence. It is not.

      If Z's defense team calls a doctor to dispute the detectives description of the injuries, then there may be testimony that supports boobie's opinion, but at this point all that boobie is presenting is his opinion, there is no evidence or testimony to support it.

      Delete
    2. It's really clear...

      Self defense and the reasonable fear that one's life is in danger is all that is needed to be proved. Not the extent of the injuries.

      A great example would be if Rat were to "show up" at bob's door. Bob would be allowed under the law, to shoot Rat on sight, since Rat has threatened Bob numerous times. Bob's realistic expectations of his life threatened would enough from the legal standard. Rat's would not have to actually lay a finger on Bob for Bob to legally defend himself nor would Bob have to suffer any injury, under the law, to feel his life was in danger.

      Delete
  9. .

    These people have to lie about everything even the insignificant. It's in their DNA.


    Kerry was ‘briefly’ on yacht in Nantucket Wednesday

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/07/05/kerry-was-briefly-on-yacht-wednesday/?hpid=z3

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  10. .

    Bolivia's president, Evo Morales, has warned he might close the US embassy in his country, as South America's leftist leaders rallied to support him over the rerouting of his presidential plane...

    ---------------

    "Being united will defeat American imperialism. We met with the leaders of my party and they asked us for several measures and if necessary, we will close the embassy of the United States," Morales said. "We do not need the embassy of the United States."

    Morales made his announcement on Thursday as the leaders of Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina and Uruguay joined him in Cochabamba, Bolivia, for a special meeting to address the diplomatic row.

    At the end of the summit a statement was issued demanding answers from France, Portugal, Italy and Spain. The United States was not mentioned in the statement.


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/bolivia-morales-close-us-embassy

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  11. .

    Once again, we play the fool, or make our 'friends' look that way, or both.

    The foreign minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, said on Spanish National Television on Friday that "they told us that the information was clear, that he was inside".

    The minister did not say who supplied the information and declined to say whether he had been in contact with the United States. But he said European countries' reactions were based on this information.


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/european-states-snowden-morales-plane-nsa

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  12. .

    Once again, the UK has the U.S.' back, but then, they are one of the biggest if not the biggest spying nation within the Five Eyes Alliance.

    The talks, due to begin in Washington on Monday, will now be restricted to issues of data privacy and the NSA's Prism programme following a tense 24 hours of negotiations in Brussels between national EU ambassadors. Britain, supported only by Sweden, vetoed plans to launch two "working groups" on the espionage debacle with the Americans.

    Instead, the talks will consist of one working group focused on the NSA's Prism programme, which has been capturing and storing vast amounts of internet and mobile phone metadata in Europe.

    The disclosures in the Guardian over the past month have triggered a transatlantic crisis of confidence and threatened to derail crucial free trade talks between the EU and the US, also due to be launched in Washington on Monday.


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/us-blocks-espionage-talks-europe-nsa-prism

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  13. .

    The link above shows the only way that the growth of big brother surveillance can be slowed or halted.

    If these programs start costing the real movers and shakers, the 1%, money through cancelled trade deals, accounts being moved from participating ISPs, the loss of 'cloud' computing business in the U.S., or a change that results in less of the phone and internet traffic being routed through the U.S., the shit might possibly hit the fan.

    It could come down to a battle between the Chamber of Commerce and Silicon Valley.

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  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. .

      More hypocrisy by the U.S. Or perhaps it is the $60 billion dollar arms deal we just completed with Saudi Arabia.

      Two female human rights activists are facing prison sentences in Saudi Arabia for delivering a food parcel to a woman who told them she was imprisoned in her house with her children and unable to get food.

      Wajeha al-Huwaider, who has repeatedly defied Saudi laws by posting footage of herself driving on the internet, and Fawzia al-Oyouni, a women's rights activist, face 10 months in prison and a two-year travel ban after being found guilty on a sharia law charge of takhbib – incitement of a wife to defy the authority of her husband...


      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/05/saudi-activists-food-woman-husband

      The U.S. gets its panties in a twist when a 'democratic theocracy' which was rapidly becoming a dictatorship of the elected in Egypt gets overthrown; yet, when was the last time you heard the U.S. complain of the actions of Saudi Arabia, an authoritarian monarchy, for their abuse of women's rights, for their lack of press freedom, for their lack of democracy, for the lack of religious freedom, for their criminalization of such things as apostasy, adultery, witchcraft and sorcery, with punishments like beheading or stoning followed by crucifixion.

      .

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