Thursday, November 17, 2011
Only monetisation of debt across euroland will now halt the market response to Eurocrat policy.
The French and Italian bond auctions this morning were awful. Spain sold €3.8 billion at 7.088%. These rates are forcing banks to deflate their balance sheets. Despite Merkel’s denial, Germany appears to be in recession. This weekend, the third European government in three weeks will fall as Spain holds an election on Sunday. We're past where Euro bonds would contain this issue. The Bundesbank has already accepted €465bn of liabilities under the so-called "Target2" payment system from the central banks of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, The market is saying forget the Euro collectively and is pricing each country as though it were an individual country. It is increasingly clear that fiscal reforms will prohibit the necessary growth necessary to service these countries debts. Besides, if each country assumes that bailouts are coming, why should they implement painful fiscal reforms? Only deflating the Euro or breaking it will restore some currency based competition necessary to assist growth. That response will likely be answered by other world currency markets. All of this will affect China. Can that be the reason for the new US presence of Obama all over Asia?. As usual, things are changing and this time not getting better.