“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.” - George W. Bush

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The final debate: Romney, confident about the polls, decided that the election is about the economy and denied Obama his game strategy.

Romney surprised many by pulling his punches on foreign affairs. By not making an issue of foreign policy, Romney keeps the focus on Obama’s greatest weakness, the bad economy, the only thing most Americans care about. 

Think not? Look at this from pollingreport.com:


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 26-30, 2012. N=832 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.4.
"There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? The economy. Social issues and values. Social Security and Medicare. Health care. The federal deficit. Foreign policy and the Middle East. Terrorism." If "all":"Well, if you had to choose the most important issue, which would you choose?"
%
The economy
46
Social issues and values
15
Social Security and Medicare
12
Health care
10
The federal deficit
7
Foreign policy and the Middle East
6
Terrorism
1
None/Other (vol.)
1
Unsure
1



Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. Sept. 21-24, 2012. N=1,007 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1.
"Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?Unemployment and jobs. The federal deficit. Health care. Gas prices. The situation in the Middle East. Taxes. Immigration. Terrorism."  Options rotated
%
Unemployment and jobs
43
Federal deficit
14
Health care
11
Gas prices
7
Situation in the Middle East
6
Taxes
4
Immigration
3
Terrorism
3
Other (vol.)
4
None of these (vol.)
1
Unsure
4


CBS News/New York Times Poll. Sept. 8-12, 2012. N=1,170 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"What is the most important issue to you in deciding how you will vote for president this year?"Open-ended
%
Economy and jobs
37
Health care
11
Budget deficit/National debt
4
The President/Barack Obama
4
Education
3
Taxes/IRS
3
Abortion
2
Medicare/Medicaid
2
Women's issues
2
Misc. social issues
2
Other
20
Unsure
10


CBS News Poll. Aug. 22-26, 2012. N=1,218 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
%
Economy/Jobs
50
Budget deficit/National debt
7
Health care
5
Immigration
2
Education
2
War/Peace
2
Politicians/Government
2
Partisan politics
2
Misc. social issues
2
Other
21
Unsure
5


Pew Research Center. June 7-17, 2012. N=1,563 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.9.
"Which ONE of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president this year: jobs, the budget deficit, health care, Social Security, immigration, or gay marriage?"Options rotated
%
Jobs
35
Budget deficit
23
Health care
19
Social Security
11
Immigration
5
Gay marriage
4
Other (vol.)
2
Unsure
2


CNN/ORC Poll. May 29-31, 2012. N=1,009 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today? The economy. The federal budget deficit. Health care. The situation in Afghanistan. Illegal immigration. Terrorism. Policies toward gays and lesbians." Options rotated
5/29-31/123/24-25/1212/16-18/11
%%%
The economy
525357
The federal budget deficit
182016
Health care
141113
Terrorism
524
Illegal immigration
445
Afghanistan
363
Policies toward gays, lesbians
121
Other (vol.)
212
Unsure
11-


ABC News/Washington Post Poll. May 17-20, 2012. N=1,004 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.
"What is the single most important issue in your choice for president?" Open-ended
%
Economy/Jobs
52
Health care/Repeal of Obamacare
7
Morals/Family values
5
Ethics/Honesty/Gov't corruption
4
Other
27
Unsure
4


Reuters/Ipsos Poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. April 12-15, 2012. N=891 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.3.
"Which one of these issues would you say is most important when thinking about the current presidential election campaign? Jobs and the economy. Health care. Family values. Leadership. National security. Taxes. Foreign policy. Representing change."
%
Jobs and the economy
53
Health care
14
Family values
9
Leadership
8
National security
5
Taxes
3
Foreign policy
3
Representing change
2
None
1
Unsure
1


CBS News/New York Times Poll. Feb. 8-13, 2012. N=1,197 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2012 presidential campaign?" Open-ended
%
Economy and jobs
44
Health care
8
Budget deficit/National debt
4
Education
3
Taxes/IRS
3
Immigration
2
Politicians/Government
2
Partisan politics
2
Other
21
Unsure
11


CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan. 12-17, 2012. N=1,154 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"In deciding who you would like to see elected president this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you: abortion, or the federal budget deficit, or the economy, or health care, or illegal immigration, or something else?" Options rotated
%
Economy
56
Federal budget deficit
15
Health care
14
Illegal immigration
5
Abortion
3
Something else
6
Unsure
1


Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. June 17-20, 2011. N=1,000 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1.
"Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? Unemployment and jobs. Government spending. The federal deficit. Health care. The war in Afghanistan. Gas prices. Immigration. Taxes."  Options rotated
%
Unemployment and jobs
42
Government spending
17
The federal deficit
13
Health care
10
War in Afghanistan
5
Gas prices
4
Immigration
3
Taxes
1
Other (vol.)
2
Unsure
3


Fox News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). May 15-17, 2011. N=910 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"Which one of the following issues do you think the president and Congress should focus
on right now? The economy and jobs. The deficit and government spending. Health care. Terrorism and national security. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Immigration." 
Options rotated
%
Economy and jobs
50
Deficit and government spending
22
Health care
8
Terrorism and national security
5
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
4
Immigration
2
All (vol.)
7
None/Other (vol.)
1
Unsure
1


Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. March 4-7, 2011. N=1,001 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1.
"Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? Immigration. Health care. The federal deficit and government spending. The war in Afghanistan. Unemployment and jobs."  Options rotated
3/1112/10
%%
Unemployment and jobs
4350
Federal deficit and spending
2925
Health care
129
War in Afghanistan
77
Immigration
35
Other (vol.)
41
Unsure
23



CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan. 15-19, 2011. N=1,036 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
"Which of the following do you think is the most important thing for Congress to concentrate on right now: job creation, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the federal budget deficit, illegal immigration, health care, or something else?"
%
Job creation
43
Health care
18
Federal budget deficit
14
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
12
Illegal immigration
7
Something else
3
Unsure
3

54 comments:

  1. Romney outsmarted Obama. He acted like a wise businessman and a smart general. He did not take the bait in the trap that Obama set for him. The “horses and bayonets” comment showed the cute level of preparation for Obama.

    I, on the other hand, would have fallen for it and gone after Obama on Benghazi. I said so in the previous thread. It would have given me satisfaction but would have been a Pyrrhic victory, but then I would make the worst politician ever.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Romney, holding an ace, made the money play and decided to stand at 19.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CNN snap poll: 60% say Romney can handle being Commander-in-Chief. And that's all he needed to do.

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  3. All the blowhards on CNN say Obama walked all over Romney. "a decisive win.". Says the lard ass, Ed Schultz.

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  4. Laughable. The D’s are talking to themselves because Romney gave them nothing to run with.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Romney played it well. It was, looking back on it, well thought out by his team. If he had been a trout he would have been that old cut throat by the log that no change of flies or presentation could make rise.

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  5. They are upset and stunned that Romney agreed with Obama. John Kerry is foaming at the mouth on CNBC. He says he is shocked that Romney agrees with Obama. LOL.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Romney who will say anything to get elected seems to have you duped but, hey, you voted for Dubya...TWICE!

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    2. Romney is just playing the game to win another prize. If he gets that prize there is no indication that he will make good decisions. Like under Dubya the US will probably get ensnared even deeper in foreign entanglements and that would be bad, very bad, for the US and others.

      Delete
    3. Yes, yes, hmmm, well, yes, ah, indeed, Ash may be right. Yes, indeed, it is quite profound. That boy is so smart he must have been educated in Canada.

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    4. I still think Obama will retain. The WH is his to loose.

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    5. Question to Ash: Who most famously said - Obama will say what he has to say. He's a politician.

      ?

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    6. I've been pretty confident of that as well, Gag, though lately I've become much less sure because many seem to have adopted a tweedle dee tweedle dum approach where one is much the same as the other and, what the heck, might as well try someone else. Unfortunately, as Dubya so well established, putting a bad decision maker in as POTUS has much bad effect.

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    7. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qERRO5rXUuk

      about 6:25 Ash.

      I admit I had the quote slightly wrong, but even you should get it.

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    8. Like Obama will not say anything to get elected.

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    9. And I did vote for W twice. My choices were Kerry, Gore or W.

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    10. welll, actually, there were third party candidates as well. Look what W got ya!

      Obama seems less inclined to hold contradictory positions than Romney, though, yes pols do pander to consituencies.

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    11. I thought Obama was against gay marriage. Now he is for gay marriage.

      I can understand pandering to constituencies, but why not pander to a constituency that has some votes?

      Or has gay marriage become such a cause celebre that everyone is for it now?

      But it's been defeated everywhere the people have had a vote.

      Sometimes I get the feeling Obama just isn't very bright.

      What gives with this?

      And don't tell me he is doing it because 'it's the right thing to do'.

      Rev. Wright put that idea to bed above.

      Delete
  6. I'm relieved Obama understands that submarines go underwater, but subs aren't "ships". They're boats.

    LSU removed crosses from picture of students at game because they "didn't want to be offensive to other students"

    Joe Biden’s brother gets $100 million government contract (great work if you can get it).

    Rasmussen now at 50-46 Romney, of those CERTAIN to vote.


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  7. The inability of the Obama Ivory Towerites to simply, and cogently make the case that if you're middle class you will lose more in deductions, under romney's tax plan, than you will realize in a lowered rate is what is liable to cost Obama the election.

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    Replies
    1. :) heh

      Them boys and girls must really be dumb, then.

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    2. I'm going to say that Obama probably doesn't like numbers very much, and he tends to not spend much time listening to people that do.

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    3. I'm going to go out on a limb and say, Obama can't do numbers.

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    4. "Doesn't like numbers," and "can't do numbers" tend to go pretty much hand in hand.

      That by itself has to be taken with a grain of salt, however. Bernie Madoff was really, really good with numbers.

      But, then again, so was Bill Clinton.

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    5. Bill did a number on a lot of women.

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    6. .

      It's a moot question anyway.

      It's unlikely anything major will change in the tax code except that it will get more complicated.

      Obama is doing what he can in pointing out that Romney is short on specifics as to how he will balance his budget.

      I would be extremely surprised if there is a major shift in seats in Congress. Even if the GOP took over the Senate (doubtful), with the current rules they could/would be severely restricted in the agenda they could introduce. It works the other way too.

      With regard to deductions, the following article points out the problem.

      Whose Deductions to Cut?

      Many of the deductions we think of as benefitting primarily the middle class (charity, home interest, healthcare, retirement income, etc.) are actually regressive. Their major benefits accrue to the wealthy. I suspect you will find few on either side of the aisle that will be happy in cutting them.

      As for cutting goodies for corporations or interest groups, forget about it.

      .

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  8. Romney wins 'focus group' in Ohio, 6 votes to 2 votes.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6URuvgL2CKA&feature=youtu.be

    There you have it, this election is over :)

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  9. Romney actually made one very good point last night that seemed to go right past everyone - the point that with the great imbalance (favoring China) between Chinese Imports, and exports, the last thing in the world the Chinese want is a "trade war."

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  10. Say what you will about McCain, however, the one thing he warned about was Obama's naively on foreign policy. He was right. Instead of a cranky Bush, we got a new Jimmy Carter.

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    Replies
    1. Worse, we have the muslim brotherhood invited into the White House by the dozen.

      We have a President who facilitated the coming of the muslim brotherhood to Egypt.

      Who said not a word when people were trying to rise up in Iran.

      Even verbal support of those people in Iran at the time might have done a lot of good, and if the government had been overthrown, it's possible it might have help solve the Iranian nuclear bomb issue too.

      A President who can't stand Israel.

      on and on....

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  11. Most people don't, really, give a whit about foreign policy. They're getting killed by Falling Median Family Income, and Rising Gasoline Prices.

    Especially, the Falling Median Income. 10+ years of jobs leaving for China are starting to really take their toll.

    Anyone who thinks that we can turn this around without some really drastic action is a fool. Tinkering with the tax code won't get it done. We'll either slap serious tariffs on Chinese goods, and pay a little bit more at Walmart, or we'll, fairly rapidly, devolve into 3rd World Nation Status.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I've noticed that none of this seems to affect the Amish very much.

    They will still be living in their well kept houses, tending their well groomed fields and gardens, minding their own business, whatever happens.

    Maybe they are onto something.

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  13. Last nights debate was on foreign policy, hence the discussion.

    As I have said numerous times, PAIN is the only thing that will get us back on track. Thru severe cuts. No sacred cows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We, absolutely, Have to stop the erosion of jobs out of the country. And, we, absolutely, Have to get our people trained up for the factories of the future.

      The Rich are, absolutely, going to have to pay more taxes, and the poor, and middle class are, absolutely, going to have to pay more, at least in the short run, at Walmart.

      And, we, absolutely, have to come to grips with the impending oil crunch.

      Delete
    2. Another HUGE thing that was completely ignored was when Obama said, "There Will Be No Sequestration!"

      THAT was "News."

      Delete
  14. I just wonder if This has ever happened before?

    Gallup has Romney up by 5, but has Obama's Job Approval at 51.

    And, Rasmussen has Romney up by 4, but has O's Job Approval at 50.

    Strange.

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  15. It was obvious to me that Obama was looking for a fight last night and didn’t get one. That tells me his internal polls must look bleak.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know if he was "looking" for a fight, or just that he was "Expecting" a fight.

      I'm quite sure he wasn't expecting to meet the President of his Newest Fan Club. :)

      Delete
  16. These polls look bleak too --

    Pennsylvania Is the New Ohio

    By Dick Morris - October 23, 2012


    With Romney gaining ground gradually in the swing state of Ohio, people have not paid enough attention to his surge in next door Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania casts 20 electoral votes and Ohio casts 18. And all electoral votes are created equal. It is possible to lose Ohio if you carry Pennsylvania and still win.

    In Pennsylvania, polling by Republican John McLaughlin shows Romney three points ahead of Obama and a poll by The Susquehanna Polling organization shows Romney four points ahead in the Keystone State.

    In Ohio, most polls have the race tied although all show significant progress by Romney in the past two weeks.

    Why is Pennsylvania, nominally a more Democratic state, more hospitable to Romney than Ohio? Because Obama has run tens of millions of dollars of negative ads in Ohio smearing Romney, but has not done so in Pennsylvania. Indeed, current polling suggests a very good shot for Romney in a variety of usually Democratic states that are not on the official map of battleground states. Having been spared Obama’s negative ads, these states are very much more inclined to back Romney.

    • Latest polls in Michigan find Obama only one point ahead

    • In Wisconsin, the candidates appear to be tied

    • In Minnesota, Romney is only two points behind

    It may be that on Election Day, we are all waiting for Ohio to be called (eventually it will go for Romney) while, in the meantime, he sweeps Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota and wins the election.

    And don’t forget the impact of a Romney victory on the U.S. Senate races. In Pennsylvania, Republican Tom Smith now leads Democratic incumbent Bob Casey according to McLaughlin’s survey. In Wisconsin, former Governor and Republican candidate Tommy Thompson is locked in a close battle with Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin for an open Senate seat. And in Michigan, former Congressman Pete Hoekstra (Republican) is hot on the heels of Democratic incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow.

    With Republican Senate takeaways increasingly likely in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Ohio, victories in these other northern tier states could provide a needed cushion to assure control of the Senate (since Republicans will lose Maine and may lose Massachusetts).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really?

      Realclear Politics has it 50 - 45.2 Obama

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    2. In fact, if you'll just go here

      Realclear Politics Map

      and click on any of those states th old toe-sucker was talking about you'll get a somewhat different pictures.

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    3. Dick agrees fully with BubblePlumbPolling, what are you bitching about now? BPP has been on the level in predicting a blow out all along, if you will recall. And the Pubs get the Senate too.

      Delete
  17. Then there is the Donald Trump bombshell due out tomorrow. That should be good for a laugh, if nothing more.

    Things are getting interesting.

    Did you notice we even have Tweet Meters now? Some network I was watching showed the Tweet Meter. What an amazing innovation. We don't have real debates any longer, but contests to see who can move The Tweet Needle the most. Hardly anything of the nuts and bolts of an actual policy. Romney has a five point plan at least. Obama doesn't even have a policy at all, just wants more time. So it turns out this debate was about not scaring grandmothers and the soccer moms, so as not to disturb the Tweet Meter. Or the line approval graph. They had that too.

    Sometimes I think I'm watching a cartoon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. :) That might be the only sensible thing you've said in months.

      Delete
  18. Romney is ahead in New Hampshire, Ruf, if you disregard a really wild University of New Hampshire poll.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt it, but it doesn't matter. NH ain't gonna stop no show.

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  19. If the election were held Today, Obama would win 281 Electoral Votes to Romney's 257.

    Romney would, however, due to a huge advantage in the Southern States, win the Popular Vote by a little less than 1%.

    Realclear Politics

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  20. Wisconsin and New Hampshire give Romney 271. I'm beginning to think Nevada may be lost to Romney. it depends, so I read, on the Reno area. One wouldn't think the people in Nevada would want 'four more years'. Since everyone is nearly dead broke down there. Not that they don't deserve it. I can't believe Iowa would vote again for Obama. That leaves Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I think Romney will pull out Ohio.

    Damn the Amish! The fuckin' slackers. They don't vote, but if they did they would vote for Romney. And might provide the margin of victory.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Romney can't win Wisconsin. He can win the election by hanging onto Fl, Va, and Co, and picking up Ohio.

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    2. Oregon is leaning Romney now. Frickin OREGON...

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  21. These debates, and the campaign has brought one very important fact to light, and that is that Obama is an immoral, corrupt and classes person, who does not deserve the office he holds.

    ReplyDelete