Talk radio and conservative blogs are the best friends Republicans have. It would be logical for the Democrats to do everything possible to throttle conservative media. So far they have not.
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From the Wall Street Journal
USA Today reports that even Democrats can only give thanks that elections aren't in April:
"If the election were now, we'd have a 'change' election; we'd have a 1994," says Stan Greenberg, pollster for President Bill Clinton when Democrats lost control of the House and Senate that year. Greenberg questions whether Republicans will be in a position to capitalize on voter discontent. . . .
By Election Day, developments on jobs, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and other events could reshape the political landscape.
"I believe that if we begin to see positive job growth, people's confidence will return, and that will change the dynamic," says Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But, he says, "the Democrats obviously face an uphill climb. The question is the steepness of the hill."
An interesting little chart shows "congressional vote preference" for the past six midterm-election years:
• 1994: Republican 47%, Democrat 46%
• 1998: Republican 45%, Democrat 46%
• 2002: Republican 46%, Democrat 46%
• 2006: Republican 39%, Democrat 55%
• 2010: Republican 46%, Democrat 45%
The two parties are now within 1% of each other, as they were in 1994, 1998 and 2002--all years when the GOP won a House majority. (Republicans outperform these numbers most likely because Gallup polls all adults, who tend to be more Democratic than actual voters.) It is of course true that lots could happen between now and November, but it's hard to see how anyone could deny that Democrats have put themselves in political peril by focusing on an imaginary health-care crisis at the expense of more urgent matters.
