Greece in the next decade will need 252 billion euros ($351 billion) to stay afloat.

That's in addition to the 110 billion euro bailout that has mostly been distributed since its approval in 2010.



GREECE | 24.10.2011 DW
Troika says Greek crisis is worse than expected

There are no simple fixes to Greece's problems

According to a report from the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, EU leaders need to reorganize Greece's financial rescue measures to stop a downward spiral.

The collective report from the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), known as the troika, which was first shown to EU finance ministers and has now been revealed to the heads of state, reveals a true tragedy.

Greece will need further financial assistance from the international community for another 10 years before the country can start raising money again on the financial markets. Originally, Greece was supposed to be back on track by 2013. The troika estimates that the financial needs of Greece in the next decade will be in the region of 252 billion euros ($351 billion). That's in addition to the 110 billion euro bailout that has mostly been distributed since its approval in 2010.

In July, European leaders approved a second bailout of 109 billion euros. Around half of that amount is being covered by private creditors. To achieve this, private and state-owned banks are set to forfeit around 21 percent of the money they are owed from government bonds.



Debt relief in sight

Since this will likely not be enough to make a long-lasting impact on Greece's debt, eurozone countries are calling on banks and other creditors to pull their weight even more. Debt relief of 50 to 60 percent is now being discussed, and negotiations are under way with the banks.

If approved, the second Greek bailout would need to be raised from 109 to 114 billion euros.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says that "Greece must be placed on a new foundation." Other European countries - with Spain and Italy being implied - must also be protected in this way.

The troika also said that despite the painful austerity measures and drastic tax hikes, the state of Greece's public finances has not improved. The deficit will remain at about 10 percent this year. Economic performance is collapsing, and many economists are warning that Greece is "saving itself to death." As economic performance continues to spiral downward, income from taxes sinks right along with it, while more unemployment benefits are paid out.

That's why it is becoming more and more difficult for Greece to get a handle on its debt, and why no investor has any interest in Greek government bonds. It's a vicious circle, and Greece is searching for a way out.



Next installment released

Despite the dire prognosis from the troika, eurozone finance ministers have decided to release the next 8 billion euro-installment of Greece's bailout package. Even the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who took part in the negotiations in Brussels, gave her approval.

Releasing the funds stands in contrast to the previous position of the finance ministers, who only wanted to pay when Greece's debt sustainability had been proven. But according to EU diplomats, the remaining 16 eurozone finance ministers didn't have much of a choice. Had they not released the money, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venezelos would have run out of money to pay police officers and teachers before Christmas. The eight billion euros should last until at least the end of the year.

'Not just a Greek crisis'

In Brussels, Greek Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou said the Greeks are a proud people who expect respect for their drastic austerity measures.

"Greece has shown time and again, that we can make the necessary decisions to make our economy more sustainable and in line with the rules," he said. "This has proven to be a European crisis, not just a Greek one."

However, since Greece was the initiator of the European debt crisis, the Germans are arguing that the country should be placed under permanent monitoring by the troika. The quarterly visits for check-ups on Greece's finances cause too much disquiet and media interest. A better solution, argues Germany, would be a continual and therefore more subtle monitoring of Greece's budget.

It is already clear that even trimming Greece's public debts by 50 percent would only reduce the problems, not solve them. Debt relief, together with a bailout package, would reduce Greece's total debt from 160 percent today to 120 percent in 10 years, according to calculations from the EU.

That would still be twice as much debt as is actually allowed under EU agreements. The troika's report, according to one participant of the negotiations in Brussels, was a beneficial shock that showed everyone involved how critical it is that decisions are made.

Author: Bernd Riegert / mz
Editor: Nicole Goebel

Is it Greece or a Stealth Euro Devaluation?

The euro has fallen to $1.2954 - its lowest level for more than a year.

One obvious way for Europe to get out from underneath its internal debt crisis would be for it to devalue the Euro, decrease imports and increase their export market. A falling euro would help tourism and housing. The Germans have been dragging their feet in resolving their problem and yes the Greek problem is in reality a German problem.

German exporters take full advantage of the Greek perpensity to consume more than they produce. Greeks are also huge users of the underground economy, probably as high as 25%.

Are there some European puppet masters, a la George Soros, manipulating the finacial markets? It has happened before. Who benefits? We shall see.

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The crisis is catching

May 4th 2010, 15:29 by R.A. | WASHINGTON Economist

IT'S shaping up to be an ugly day for European markets, which is making for an ugly day for American markets. The big European indexes were off 2% to 3% on the day, and the euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in over a year. The decline is likely related to renewed increases in yields on government debt across southern Europe. These had fallen from recent highs in the wake of the weekend announcement of a €110 billion package for Greece. But for the moment, it appears that European leaders and the IMF have not sufficiently ring-fenced the Greece crisis. Contagion looms.

It's surely not helping matters that rumours are circulating that Spain will soon ask for €280 billion in aid. Spain's prime minister said the rumour was unfounded, calling it "madness", and I believe him. But the nature of contagion is that people act on the rumour and ignore everything else. Back in 2008, markets attacked financial firms indiscriminately, even as bank executives pleaded that their finances were sound. They were, in some cases, quite right. But liquidity crises, if left unchecked, become insolvency crises. The panic becomes self-fulfilling.

It may be that European leaders have insufficiently demonstrated their awareness of the difference in the two kinds of crises. Aid to Greece has been generous, but it's not clear that it will address the underlying insolvency of the Greek government. Forbearance worked in the case of the American financial system because banks could borrow cheaply from the government and then lend at a higher rate, thereby slowly recapitalising themselves. The 5% interest rate Greece is getting from Europe and the IMF is much lower than market rates, but it's higher than Greece's expected growth rate. The aid strategy has bought time, but it won't save Greece unless growth surprises strongly to the upside.

Most of the other troubled European nations do not face a solvency crisis. Assuming that they can rollover their debt, their fiscal positions are strong enough and expected growth is significant enough that the debt levels can eventually be brought down. Aggressive European aid to these countries should definitely work. So long as they don't face a liquidity crunch during their adjustments, the bills will all get paid.

So perhaps Europe has erred in its strategy. To properly ring-fence the crisis, ministers should probably have acknowledged the need to restructure Greece's debt and worked to do so in an orderly fashion, all while extending unlimited liquidity and significant lines of credit to European economies threatened by contagion.

In the scheme of things, a Greek default is not a big deal. Greece is a small country, and exposure to Greek debt is relatively limited. A Portuguese default would be a little worse than a Greek default, and real trouble in Spain and Italy would be very bad indeed (see this very helpful chart). It makes little sense to fret over the sacrifices Greek citizens can or cannot make to achieve the necessary fiscal adjustment. The first, second, and third priority have to be containing the crisis. European leaders seem depressingly slow to grasp this.