Toby Harnden is the Daily Telegraph's US Editor, based in Washington DC. More about Toby. Contact toby.harnden@telegraph-usa.com.
Could Republicans win back the Senate in 2010?
By Toby Harnden World Last updated: January 6th, 2010
Telegraph
A few months ago, anyone suggesting that Republicans might be able to retake the Senate – where they currently have 40 seats compared to the Democrats’ 58 plus two Independents who caucus with Barack Obama’s party – would have been liable to be certified insane.
But with the shock decision of the Senator Byron Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota, it’s beginning to go from impossible to long shot. Some 34 seats are up for grabs, 18 Republican and 16 Democratic. The GOP needs to pick up 11 seats to secure a majority.
I certainly wouldn’t bet the farm (or even an outbuilding) on a GOP win that gives it 50 seats - far from it. Obama’s poll fortunes would have to continue to slump and absolutely everything would have to go right for Republicans. But just remember that in 2002 just about everything went right Senatewise for the GOP and in 2008 a similar thing happened for Democrats. Here’s how it could happen for the GOP this time around:
Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington are safe Democratic seats. Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Utah are safe GOP seats.
Connecticut (D) – Chris Dodd is highly vulnerable. Likely GOP pick-up. BREAKING NEWS UPDATE 12.05am EST Blimey, Dodd is to announce he won’t seek re-election. Actually, this will give the Dems a much better chance of keeping the seat. Moves it from likely to possible GOP pick-up, I’d say.
Arkansas (D) – Went heavily against Obama in 2008 and Blanche Lincoln has her vote for health-care reform to worry about. Likely GOP pick-up.
North Dakota (D) – Byron Dorgan looks likely to hold his seat but North Dakota is a Republican state and the GOP will fancy its chances, especially if Governor John Hoeven throws his hat into the ring. Likely GOP pick-up.
Nevada (D) – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seems to be in big trouble. Possible GOP pick-up.
Colorado (D) – Always a swing state, it looks good for the GOP this time. Possible GOP pick-up.
Delaware (D) – Joe Biden’s state has been reliably Democratic in recent years but moderate GOP candidate Mike Castle has shown his ability to be elected statewide and could well take the veep’s old seat. He also has a sense of humour. Possible GOP pick-up.
Illinois (D) – Barack Obama’s state should be Democratic in any normal year but the Blagojevich fiasco, the Burris fiasco, attorney general Lisa Madigan deciding not to run and a strong GOP candidate in the person of Mark Kirk mean that the GOP could just do it. Possible GOP pick-up.
Pennsylvania (D) – Arlen Specter, who switched from the GOP, has a tough primary against Joe Sestak, who is running to his Left. If he survives that – or even if he doesn’t – Pat Toomey, once considered too conservative for the state, looks a very possible winner winner. Possible GOP pick-up.
California (D) – Here’s where it gets really tough for the Republicans. It’s one of the most liberal states in the Union but the GOP believes that Barbara Boxer’s record may be just a bit too liberal. And Carly Fiorina is a potentially powerful candidate. Losing California would be a Doomsday scenario for Democrats but Republicans can still dream.
If they won all of the above currently Democratic seats, Republicans would still have to also hold New Hampshire, Kentucky, Florida, Louisiana, Ohio and Missouri, all of which have degrees of vulnerability for them.
That would leave them with 49 seats to the Democrats’ 51.
But what if Joe Lieberman (I) flipped to the Republican party? Very possible, particularly if he was induced with a juicy committee chairmanship.
That would mean 50-50. But still Vice-President Joe Biden would hold the casting vote.
Then, as Thinking Independently points out, the Grim Reaper would be needed to secure Republican control. Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia is ailing and 92, though his state has a Democratic governor who would presumably fill the seat with a Democrat. Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey is 86 and healthy but his state now has a GOP governor. And Hawaii’s two Democratic Senators Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inoue look fit enough but they are both 85 and the state where Obama was born (sorry, Birthers) has a Republican governor.
Of course, there’s a strong argument that 60 is the magic number in the Senate and anything less than that is not really control at all – and the closer to 50 you get, the less the degree of control. By that standard, the Democrats will surrender their grasp on the 100-member American House of Lords in a year’s time in any event.
