McChrystal: More Forces or 'Mission Failure' in Afghanistan

NATO nation building in Afghanistan?

We are to believe that Obama, the Democrats and NATO have the political will to commit the US to the long, long mission in Afghanistan. That is too serious to be laughable. It is absurd and we do not have to go back to Viet Nam to get a hint as to how this will end.

We have been here before and as a matter of fact, we still are. It is called 'International Community' nation building in Kosovo & Bosnia.

First Afghanistan:

According to a story in The Washington Post:

"The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan warns in an urgent, confidential assessment of the war that he needs more forces within the next year and bluntly states that without them, the eight-year conflict "will likely result in failure."

Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal says emphatically: "Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) -- while Afghan security capacity matures -- risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible."

His assessment was sent to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Aug. 30 and is now being reviewed by President Obama and his national security team.

McChrystal concludes the document's five-page Commander's Summary on a note of muted optimism: "While the situation is serious, success is still achievable."

But he repeatedly warns that without more forces and the rapid implementation of a genuine counterinsurgency strategy, defeat is likely. McChrystal describes an Afghan government riddled with corruption and an international force undermined by tactics that alienate civilians.

Let's face facts and look at previous NATO nation building efforts in European Muslim conflicts, notably Bosnia and Kosovo. That has been going on for 14 years.

$14 billion and 14 years later, Bosnia is a living experiment of real time nation building. It is a country dictated to by Brussels and Washington. They are the bastard children of the Dayton Agreement.

Along with continued presence of NATO in Bosnia, the US and Nato attack on Yugoslavia resulted in the creation of Kosovo, another Muslim country (after Albania) in Europe. Kosovo is a criminal state run by drugs, organized crime and human traffickiing for prostitution.

Yet, Bosnia and Kosovo are a walk in the park compared to Afghanistan. Before we indulge in wishful thinking in Afghanistan, let's look at Bosnia and Kosovo.

Kosovo, Will the Cesspool of Europe Overflow, Again?

The Russians just want to be helpful.

Kosovo: the heat is on
Posted by Harry de Quetteville on 25 Oct 2007 at 14:51 Telegraph

Kosovo is bubbling up again. It's easy to write it off as a grim wasteland of economic gloom, bureaucratic stagnation and seemingly the world's entire collection of discarded plastic bags.

But it's worth remembering that this is in the centre of Europe, a two and a half flight from London. There are still 17,000 NATO soldiers there, keeping the peace. Come December they might really have to start earning their corn.

December 10th is the deadline for the last, of last ditch, final (honestly) talks between Serbia and Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership to sort out a future for the place.

You will remember that though ethnically Kosovo is 9/10ths Albanian, it is a province of Serbia. And a cherished province at that. Kosovo separatist and Serb forces dispatched by Slobodan Milosevic fought a war there in 1999 until NATO jumped in and drove out the Serbs.

Since then it’s been administered mostly by the UN. And nothing has happened, nothing has changed. The Serbs are willing to let Kosovo be autonomous, the ethnic Albanians want nothing short of independence. There is no deal.

What is the difference between autonomy and independence? Not a huge amount, but, crucially, combustible notions like pride, history, and nationhood.

The ramifications of failure are huge.

A poll this week suggests Serbia's government will collapse over Kosovo. Now the current Serbian government, filled with 'moderate hardliners' (I love that phrase) like Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica may not seem very appetising. But it is a lot better than the hardline hardliners, like Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the Radical party.

To give you a sense of nationalist sentiment in Serbia, The Radicals won elections earlier this year. It's the biggest party, but isn’t in power because it couldn't form a majority government. Nikolic is only in charge because official leader Vojislav Šešelj is in the Hague charged with war crimes.

Then there is Russia, which backs its traditional ally Serbia in wanting to keep Kosovo. Earlier this week a Russian diplomat said that independence for Kosovo would set a "precedent" which could see Abkhazia and South Ossetia break away from rival Georgia.

Instability in the Balkans and instability in the Caucasus can be a recipe for hundreds of thousands of deaths.

So hold on to your hat. Kosovo may seem boring now, as the diplomats shuttle around for yet more negotiations. But it might get pretty interesting soon.

Dangerously so.