All The Best
THE ELEPHANT BAR IS CLOSED
I want to thank everyone who participated in the Elephant Bar over the past twelve years. We had millions of visitors from all around the World and you were part of it. Over the past dozen years, two or three times a night, I would open my laptop and some of you were always there. I will miss that.
My plans are to continue my work with technology and architecture. You know my interests and thoughts.
At times, things would get a little rough in the EB. To those of you that I may have offended over the years, I apologize. From all of you, I learned and grew.
An elephant never forgets.
Deuce, 21 June 2018
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Trump's Absurd Proposition to Revamp US Nuclear Capability
Technology suffers from a momentary illusion called "State of the Art".
"State of the Art" is a momentary assertion of technological superiority with an implied assumption of some permanence. In the area of advanced weaponry it tempts the owner with a feeling of superiority and provokes a default position of hubris.
Trump is making an error in believing he can build a superior lasting nuclear advantage. It is a foolish bet and a terrible risk. One needs to look to our own experience on two historical events to appreciate Trump's folly in this claim.
All new technology comes with high risk. Take the US shuttle program.
NASA's official overall probability risk assessment number (PRAN) for complete loss of life and vehicle for the Space Shuttle was widely quoted at 1/100. In practice we lost two out of 131 missions. We have no idea on how capable nuclear missile and anti-missile systems would work as we have thankfully never known or practiced them under real world conditions. They may or may not work to a degree unknown but worse yet, we know there will be failures and those failures would come with terrible consequences.
How bad would be the consequences? We can only speculate but let's go to an event we do know about, 911.
Two commercial airplanes with the explosive power of high speed kerosene containers took down two buildings in one city. The property and economic damage was in the hundreds of billions and immediate death and casualties were in the thousands. Following wars ran the cost of 911 into the trillions and deaths in the millions. What would be the consequences of hundreds of cities being hit with nuclear weapons taking taking out ten thousand buildings in each city?
The United States has made itself vulnerable to nuclear weapons because by it having nuclear weapons, others have followed. Even shit-ass backward countries like North Korea and Pakistan have them. Increasing and "improving" nuclear weapons will only result in others following suit and the risks would increase for all of us with security improving for none of us.
Posted by Deuce ☂ at 12/22/2016 10:37:00 PM