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Wednesday, March 09, 2016

The Michigan Surprise - Bernie Sanders Burns the Pollsters




Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset

Charlie Neibergall / AP
Bernie Sanders greets supporters after speaking at a campaign rally Monday in Dearborn, Michigan.
Charlie Neibergall / AP FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

With a polling miss this big, no single factor is likely to explain it, so more than one answer could be correct. Also, not every pollster releases detailed data, and it may take some time to fully diagnose what went wrong. “It’s a little bit of everything,” Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray told The Huffington Post.

Here is our initial assessment of some possible explanations, along with comments from some of the pollsters who had reported a big Clinton lead:
Pollsters underestimated youth turnout. Voters under 30 made up 19 percent of Democratic primary voters, nearly as large a share as voters 65 or older, according to exit pollsMitchell Research and Communications, which showed a 37 percentage point Clinton lead in a poll conducted Sunday, found that people younger than 50 would make up less than a quarter of all voters; they made up more than half instead. Mitchell was one of the only pollsters in the state to poll using only calls to landlines, and most Americans younger than 45 live in households without landlines. But even Monmouth, which dialed cellphones, too, underestimated the turnout among younger voters. Perhaps all the polls showing a big Clinton lead sowed complacency among Clinton supporters, who skew older — though big leads in polls in Southern states didn’t stop her supporters from helping her romp to big victories.

Pollsters underestimated Sanders’s dominance among young voters. Not only did more young voters turn out than expected, but Sanders won 81 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds. A YouGov poll showed him winning 66 percent.1
Pollsters underestimated the number of independent voters who would participate in the primary. YouGov expected Sanders to beat Clinton by 38 percentage points among independent voters participating in the open Democratic primary. He won those voters by 43 percentage points. But no one expected independents to make up 27 percent of voters; YouGov expected about 12 percent. “There were too many Democrats in the poll,” said Will Jordan, elections editor at YouGov.

Pollsters underestimated Sanders’s support among black voters. Sanders had won less than 20 percent of black voters in most states with large black populations, and Mitchell and YouGov both showed Sanders winning less than 20 percent of them in Michigan. Instead he won 28 percent.

Pollsters missed a late break to Sanders by not polling after Sunday.Clinton and Sanders debated in Flint on Sunday and met in a town hall in Detroit on Monday. No public pollsters contacted voters after either event. Sanders did slightly better among voters who decided in the week before the primary, according to exit polls. An earlier polling miss, in the Iowa Republican caucuses, may have resulted in part from a scarcity of late polls. And there were signs before Sunday that Sanders was closing the gap: In the YouGov poll, 45 percent of Michigan Democrats said their opinion of Sanders was getting better, and just 8 percent said it was getting worse. For Clinton, the numbers were 38 percent and 19 percent.

Some Clinton supporters chose to vote in the Republican primary. We know 7 percent of voters in the Republican primary identified themselves as Democrats to exit pollsters, compared with just 4 percent of voters in the Democratic primary who said they were Republicans. “Those 7 percent of Dems were likely mostly Hillary voters who thought she had an easy win and they could do their part trying to stop [Donald] Trump,” said Bernie Porn of pollster EPIC-MRA. The exit-poll samples are too small, though, to check that.

Pollsters had little recent history to work with. Michigan’s Democratic primary was weird in 2008 (Barack Obama wasn’t on the ballot), and the state party held caucuses in 2000 and 2004 that weren’t really competitive. So relying on voter history could lead pollsters astray. “Remember, we haven’t had a real Democratic presidential primary in Michigan lately,” said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, which showed the tightest race of any late polls, with Clinton leading by 5 percentage points.

This is an outlier, a perfectly rotten combination of bad luck and bad timing. Several pollsters pointed out that they used the same methods in the Michigan Democratic primary as in other primaries — including Michigan’s Republican primary — with relative success.
“Polls on the Republican race, including ours, were generally OK,” said Barbara Carvalho of the Marist Poll. She added that all polls on the Democratic race had Clinton winning. “So, something clearly changed in the closing days.”


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68 comments:

  1. It's possible, which I once thought impossible, that he becomes the nominee if Hillary is indicted by the Grand Jury.

    Shakespeare himself would be hard pressed to come up with the cast of characters and situations and debates in this year's go around.

    It is ongoing excellent theatre.

    Enjoy !

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sanders trailed Clinton by *21* and won.

    ReplyDelete
  3. “Polls on the Republican race, including ours, were generally OK,” said Barbara Carvalho of the Marist Poll. She added that all polls on the Democratic race had Clinton winning. “So, something clearly changed in the closing days.”


    It's a head scratcher for certain.

    I expect Quirk, magna cum laude on all things Michigan, will have an opinion.

    What the heck happened Quirk ?

    Opinion requested.

    ReplyDelete
  4. People are waking up to the reality of who Clinton is.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 75% of independents voted for Sanders, 80% of those under 45.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Marco Rubio is the complete Neocon puke.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Marco is finished next week.

    Prediction:

    Trump wins Florida by a lot, loses in Ohio.

    Marco drops out.

    ReplyDelete

  8. What should worry Clinton about Sanders’s Michigan win

    By Stephen Stromberg March 9 at 1:28 AM



    Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. acknowledges his supporters on arrival at a campaign rally, Tuesday, March 8, 2016, in Miami. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) scored a narrow but unexpected win in the Michigan Democratic primary Tuesday night, in part because of two factors: trade and trust. Clinton did not have a disastrous night overall; she won Mississippi by a huge margin, which helped her delegate count. The math still strongly favors Clinton to win the Democratic nomination. But Sanders has exposed some big weaknesses that will dog Clinton in the rest of the primary campaign — and probably in the general election, too.

    First, Sanders savaged Clinton on trade. At Sunday’s Democratic debate, Sanders railed against NAFTA and other supposed heresies Clinton’s husband committed in the 1990s. This may have proven quite effective. According to exit polls, 58 percent of Democratic voters said that trade “takes away U.S. jobs,” and 56 percent of them voted for Sanders. Sanders also won with people who are “very worried” about the economy. His simplistic populism, with a slightly stronger emphasis on trade, turned out to be the winning narrative in Rust Belt Michigan, and it will no doubt help him in big upcoming states such as Ohio.

    How Bernie Sanders won Michigan
     

    Play Video1:31


    Bernie Sanders won Michigan on March 8 by getting votes from several key groups. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)

    Clinton has attempted to neutralize the trade issue, coming out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement at the start of the campaign. But the Michigan exit polls indicate that many voters also believe that Clinton is untrustworthy — or at the very least that they think Sanders is more honest. A quarter of Michigan Democratic primary voters said honesty was the most important quality in a candidate, and 80 percent of them supported Sanders. He seems authentic. She does not. This has not changed.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/03/09/what-should-worry-clinton-about-sanderss-michigan-win/


      I've gotten a kick out of the idea people have that Trump's not a politician. Trump agrees he is not a politician but argues he knows lots about politics because he's paid off politicians in both parties for favors for decades.

      Humorously, none of the candidates in either party have challenged him on this, confirming for all to see that Washington, D.C. is indeed a cesspool of corruption.

      Heh, I'd think some bright Republican would have had the sense to challenge and say it's only the Democrats who accept bribes, or some such thing, but no, nothing but an affirmation by silence on all sides....

      Delete
  9. Hillary won Registered Democrats by 16%. She got creamed by the "Independents."

    But, as I stated in the previous thread, while Bernie was winning Mi. by 2, she was winning Ms. by 66 -

    which gave her a net win for the night of about 19 delegates (Not counting superdelegates.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A lot of people don't realize that the Dems don't have any "winner take all" primaries; they're ALL Proportional.

      As a result, once a candidate gets down a couple of hundred points as Sanders is, it's almost impossible to come back.

      Delete
    2. .

      Especially when the superdelagates, the Democratic establishment, aren't required to vote in line with their nominal constituency, the public.

      .

      Delete
    3. This super delegate fix for Hillary could hurt her if she has to run against Trump in the general - he can pound her as the ultimate insider who is only facing him because her primary was fixed.

      Delete
  10. This Is Devastating - Rubio plays to empty stadium in Hialeah, Florida

    Only a couple of hundred people showed up for the Rubio Rally in Hialeah.

    It's over for Little Marco -


    Gateway Pundit

    ReplyDelete
  11. .

    I expect Quirk, magna cum laude on all things Michigan, will have an opinion.

    What the heck happened Quirk ?

    Opinion requested.


    Hillary was unmasked.

    She tried a bullshit play charging that Sanders was against the auto bailout and it back fired on her. People saw through the lies.

    Bernie pounded on trade and jobs and that' what concerned the ble collar workers in Michigan.

    In the exit polls, people were asked who do you trust Hillary or Bernie. Results? Bernie 81% Hillary 19%.

    Everyone knows Hillary. She was coronated a year ago. It was inevitable. Sanders problem is that few were aware of Bernie when this thing started. It is only now that people are starting to notice him and what he is saying.

    The only reason Hillary is talking about trade, jobs, the drug companies now is because Bernie and Trump both raised the issues and she was forced to.

    As I mentioned on the previous thread, the Dems' nominating process is rigged to guarantee the establishment candidate. Hillary is the establishment candidate. When she wins, expect it will be business as usual in D.C.

    .

    ReplyDelete
  12. It's kind of amazing how those Trump supporters are starting to find a whole, new, purified love for a Democratic Socialist. :)

    The fact is, when Obama needed a vote from Congress to relieve those auto bailout funds, Bernie voted against it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. .

      The voters in Michigan didn't buy it.

      Where Sanders and Clinton come in

      Clinton and Sanders were both in the Senate at the time, and contrary to what Clinton implied Sunday, both supported the idea of an auto bailout.

      Sanders argued that letting the auto industry go under was too big of a risk for middle-class workers -- it could lower wages across all sectors of the economy and have a ripple effect on states like Vermont that were fairly far removed from the auto industry. He was quoted by Vermont Public Radio at the time as saying:

      The problem is if you don't act in the midst of a growing recession, what does it mean to create a situation where millions of more people become unemployed? And that could spread, and I have serious concerns about that. I think it would be a terrible idea to add millions more to the unemployment rolls.

      But Sanders was vehemently against the larger $700 billion bailout to prop up the banks. (As evidenced by his presidential campaign, Sanders is no fan of Wall Street.) So he voted against the bank bailout.

      The bank bailout was so big it had to be doled out in portions. In January 2009, Senate Republicans tried to block the Treasury Department from releasing the second half of the money, some of which was designated for the auto industry. Sanders, based on his opposition to the Wall Street bailout, voted against releasing that money as well.

      That vote gave Clinton the opening she needed to hit Sanders as anti-auto bailout on Sunday. "If everybody had voted the way he did, I believe the auto industry would have collapsed, taking 4 million jobs with it," she said.

      (Side note: Having your votes picked apart by opponents is one reason why it's tough to run for president as a senator.)

      Clinton is technically correct that Sanders voted against releasing the money that went to the auto bailout, but Sanders can also correctly argue that he supported the auto bailout when it wasn't tied to the Wall Street one.

      This back and forth likely isn't going anywhere; expect both to claim as much over the next few days...


      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/07/the-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-debate-over-the-auto-bailout-explained/

      Anyone who calls Sanders anti auto industry is being disingenuous. But it is a political campaign and probably to be expected. However, in Michigan they didn't buy it.

      .

      Delete
    2. .

      The following article from the Detroit Free Press outlines CNN poll results from the CNN poll taken on the Michigan primary. It outlines some of the demographic factors involved.

      http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/09/high-turnout-late-deciding-voters-give-bernie-sanders-michigan-primary/81527800/

      .

      Delete
    3. "Anyone who calls Sanders anti auto industry is being disingenuous."
      ===
      To include Rufus, of course, but of course we already knew that.

      Didn't. We. All.

      Delete
  13. Sanders is showing Clinton to be the sliceable, dice-able slippery toad that she is. (CNN Debate)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. .

      :o)

      Talk about pandering for the Spanish vote.

      The only difference is you can almost believe Sanders means it. Almost.

      .

      Delete
  14. Sanders is ripping her guts out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope Hillary has her pampers on.

      Delete
    2. I hope she doesn't.

      Delete
    3. Don't get emotionally invested, Deuce; he can't get there. :)

      Delete
    4. I’ll try and repress my inner Dr. Pangloss.

      Delete
    5. :) That shouldn't be hard. :) :) :) :)

      Delete
    6. Rufus always cheered for the bully in the schoolyard.

      Delete
  15. A US State Department spokesman on Tuesday said the US was aware of reports of missile launches.

    ...

    The Qiam and Qadr, each capable of carrying payloads greater than 500 kilograms, fit the UN definition for missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Jeremy Bennie, Middle East and Africa editor for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, said.
    The now-lifted 2010 ban covered missiles with a range of at least 300 kilometres and a payload capacity of at least 500 kilograms, under a definition by a UN panel of experts.

    ReplyDelete
  16. On an unrelated but important to me topic I was surprised and gladdened to find Trump's position on our National Forests and Lands is the same as mine......they ought to be left in Federal hands.

    I learned this listening to that idiot Glenn Beck who is cool with the idea of selling them off to the highest bidders.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We often get German forestry students at the U of Idaho.

      They always freak out upon first seeing our forests and wilderness areas.

      These National Forests and Wilderness Areas are indeed a treasure for the entire world.

      Delete
    2. Turn Forest Reserves into Beck Polygamy Colonies.

      Delete
  17. “Fire season is no longer just a summertime phenomenon, especially out West,” said County Commissioner Dan Gibbs. “We’re seeing fires start earlier each year and end later.

    ...

    “I think if you ask most people in the community whether or not they thought wildfires are listed in FEMA’s scope in terms of catastrophic events,” said Gibbs, “they’d probably assume that they are and considered just like other natural events. But they’re not.

    This bill is a real positive step forward to have the federal government and FEMA play a more active role with wildfires. It allows state and local governments to tap into federal resources when fires get complex enough, when they’re out of control for what we can handle and manage.”

    ReplyDelete
  18. Rufus is unable to admit that Sanders voted for the Auto Bailout before he voted against the TBTF Bank/Auto Bailout.
    Rufus thinks we cannot exist w/o the TBTF Bank/Government Complex.

    ReplyDelete
  19. galopn2Wed Mar 09, 08:44:00 PM EST

    "A lot of people don't realize that the Dems don't have any "winner take all" primaries; they're ALL Proportional.

    As a result, once a candidate gets down a couple of hundred points as Sanders is, it's almost impossible to come back.
    "

    "Proportional"

    Bernie wins, Hillary gets the Delegates.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doug, she's ahead of him in Earned delegates by a margin of 219.

      She's ahead of him in Votes by 1.5 Million.

      The Democrats instituted the "super" delegate process in 1984, and no Democrat has been nominated, since, without a majority of the earned (pledged) delegates.

      Delete
    2. Rufus doesn't know what he is talking about. Hillary is not getting a "Proportional" share of the 'Super Delegates'. She is getting a "SuperProportional" share of the 'Super Delegates'.

      I don't see any real difference between The Bernie and The Bitch except that The Bitch wants to take all your money just a little more slowly than The Bernie.

      This supposedly makes her the more 'moderate' of the two.

      I want her real primary - The FBI/Grand Jury/Indictment Primary - to begin....

      Delete
    3. Bernie won Michigan, she got the delegates.

      That's not "proportional."

      Delete
    4. Bernie can't possibly be as corrupt as Hillary: He was a Hippy she's a lifelong crook.

      Delete

    5. If both Hillary and Huma are in the klick I hope they share the same cell.

      The recriminations, battles and hatred would be endless.....No Exit.....their just desserts.

      Delete
    6. It'd be a carnal love-fest, but it ain't gonna happen.

      Delete
    7. Constant Carnal Desserts.
      (Admit it: You'd love to be Hillary)

      Delete
    8. .

      When asked in tonight's debate why people don't trust her, she said she didn't know. All she can ask is that they take a look at her record.

      :o)

      That gentlemen is what is know as irony.

      .

      Delete
    9. I don't accuse The Bernie of corruption or criminality.

      Like you say, a Hippie till the age of forty, living off they government salary forever after that, I just accuse The Bernie of wanting to take all our money.

      Last I heard the guy was talking about an over 50% beginning tax rate on everybody.

      The Bernie may not be a criminal but he is truly nuts, and knows the way to Venezuela.

      Delete
    10. The Bitch actually said 'just look at my record' ?

      Good Lord !

      Narcissistic personality disorder compounded with compulsive lying and a total detachment from reality.....

      Delete
    11. .

      I'm sitting here watching the Borgias on Showtime. Things haven't changed that much in the past 500 years.

      .

      Delete
    12. My aunt and I once spent a lovely snowy winter alone together watching "I, Claudius" each Sunday evening.

      I'd get the food, she'd do the cooking, then to the TV.

      Hillary is Livia Drusilla.

      Livia had the excellent good sense to make certain the coins were properly put on her dead eyes lids to pay The Ferryman for the trip to the other side....

      Delete
    13. Bob was the inspiration for Blue Apron.

      https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=blue+apron

      Delete
  20. No, Bernie will receive about 10 more delegates from Michigan than will Hillary (approx. 70 - 60 Split.)

    Remember, he only won by 2%.

    Hillary, on the other hand, will get the lion's share of the delegates in Mississippi due to her 83 - 17 win.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And, none of that has Anything to do with "superdelegates."

      Delete
  21. Why didn't any of them think to write in some responsible adult ?

    Like, say, Ben Carson.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even the Republicans weren't That stupid.

      Delete
    2. Heh, not a bad response.

      Delete
  22. That's wonderful.

    I put up a headline the other day about a Penguin swimming 500 miles each year to visit the man that saved him/her and raised it up to adulthood.

    I saw a deer one time resting pleasantly on a farmer's porch swing couch. Put a corncob pipe in it's mouth it nearly would pass for human....

    Animals can be marvelous.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why do some insist on describing them as too stupid for such behavior?

      Delete
    2. I don't know. And human behavior is often much worse than that of the animals. Wolves excepted.

      Delete
    3. I still can't believe I was not killed when I stood 5 feet away from a Mountain Lion to take it's picture.

      It probably thought if I was that stupid, I'd taste awful.

      Delete
    4. Never heard you tell that story before. Good grief what were you thinking....

      What was the mountain lion thinking, other than you were bad meat...they are usually really shy....

      Delete
  23. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMWefPHR7VU

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey, thanks.

      It was 5,000 thousand miles, not 500 !

      Delete
  24. CONTRA-QUIRK -

    Jihad Watch

    Exposing the role that Islamic jihad theology and ideology play in the modern global conflicts

    “Palestinian” Muslims murder US tourist, wound 12 Israelis in jihad stabbings

    March 9, 2016 5:01 am By Robert Spencer 17 Comments


    All this has been incited by Muslim clerics, preaching hatred and murder from the pulpit.

    Stab2

    “U.S. Tourist Killed, Dozen Israelis Wounded in Palestinian Attacks,” IPT News, March 8, 2016:

    “A Palestinian terrorist stabbed and killed an American tourist and injured at least 10 others in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, marking the third Palestinian attack within hours of one another.Israeli police said the terrorist started to stab civilians near the entrance to the Jaffa Port entrance – wounding multiple individuals – before escaping toward Tel Aviv and stabbing motorists idling in their vehicles on the road.

    Four of the victims are in serious condition, including a pregnant woman.

    The attack occurred about a mile from the Peres Center for Peace, coinciding with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden‘s arrived at the facility to meet with former Israeli President Shimon Peres

    “Terrorist acts against children, women, and innocent people are intolerable,” said Biden in a joint press conference with Peres.

    Hours earlier, Palestinian terrorists stabbed and injured three Israelis in two separate, nearly simultaneous attacks.

    In Petah Tikva, a Palestinian terrorist repeatedly stabbed a 40 year-old ultra-Orthodox Israeli man in a wine store. After fleeing the scene temporarily, the victim returned to the store, pulled the knife out of his own neck and mortally stabbed the terrorist.

    Around the same time, a Palestinian terrorist shot two Border Police officers in the head outside Nablus Gate in eastern Jerusalem. The two police officers are in critical and serious condition. Israeli police chased down and neutralized the gun-wielding assailant.

    Earlier on Tuesday morning, an Arab woman in her 50s attempted to stab a Border Police officer in the Old City. The terrorist was shot dead on the scene.

    Hamas praised Tuesday’s attacks and said that Israel’s attempts at stifling the violence are failing.

    Israeli security forces believe Tuesday’s attacks are not related and indicative of the Palestinian terrorism wave throughout the past five months that has claimed the lives of 34 Israelis.

    The attacks have been largely characterized as individual initiatives, fueled by ongoing Palestinian incitement from social media circles and across the political spectrum.

    Though most attacks are not attributed to any particular terrorist organization, official representatives of Hamas, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) glorify the murder of Israelis and encourage other Palestinians to emulate the terrorists.

    For example, Fatah – the party of PA President Mahmoud Abbas – called for killing Israelis throughout the entire country in a music video broadcast on Fatah’s Awdah TV channel in January….

    Jihad Watch

    ReplyDelete
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