Israeli air power has been moved into the airports of Mosul.
(Bobbo - I can't understand what's happening, drunk as I am. This usually clears my mind. I saw the Star of David in the sky, and I don't think it was the booze, though it might have been. All well here at the Three Horn Borello, getting guts fucked out. More later. Q)
March 6, 2015 10:34 am March 6, 2015 10:34 am Comment
Today’s employment report continued the pattern we’ve been seeing for a while. Unemployment is falling, and is now very close to previous estimates of the NAIRU, the unemployment rate at which inflation begins accelerating. But inflation isn’t accelerating; in particular, there is still no hint of wage pressure in the data. So what should the Fed do?
My answer is, apply Cromwell’s rule:
I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.
OK, maybe skip the bowels part.
The NAIRU is, I’d still argue, a useful concept, mainly because it’s a caution against expecting too much from monetary policy in the long run. Much as I want full employment, there is some lower bound on the unemployment rate, a rate that you just can’t achieve on a sustained basis with demand-side policies. But it’s not very useful as a guide to short- and medium-term policy, because we do not have any good idea of where that lower bound lies.
I very much hope that Fed staff remembers the 1990s. Circa 1994 it was widely believed, based on seemingly solid research, that the NAIRU was around 6 percent; but Greenspan and company decided to wait for actual evidence of rising inflation, and the result was a long run of job growth that brought unemployment below 4 percent without any kind of inflationary explosion. Suppose they had targeted the presumed NAIRU instead; they would have sacrificed trillions in foregone output, plus all the good things that come from a tight labor market.
This time around there is even more reason not to assume that we know where the NAIRU is, because we now know that premature rate hikes can all too easily land you in a low-inflation trap that’s very hard to escape. Think Japan 2000 (an incident I think many people have forgotten), the ECB 2011, Sweden after 2010.
Maybe full employment really is 5.3 percent unemployment, and by the time that’s clear the inflation rate will have ticked up a bit above the Fed’s target. But that would not be a large cost, whereas sliding back into the liquidity trap would be very, very costly. So please, Janet, Stan, and company, think it possible that . . . .
I generally agree with Paul Krugman in his arguments on macro policy, but sometimes it is worth emphasizing a point of agreement. Krugman really nails the issue today in discussing the Fed's approach to tightening.
The question is at what point should the Fed start raising interest rates to keep the unemployment rate from falling further. The concern is that if unemployment gets too low, the inflation rate would start to accelerate. Krugman points out that we really don't know the level of unemployment that is low enough to trigger accelerating inflation, although many people have put it in the 5.3-5.5 percent range. If the Fed acted on this view then it would be raising interest rates very soon to keep the unemployment rate from falling below this level.
But there was a widely held view back in the 1990s, back up by a considerable amount of evidence, that the magic number was close to 6.0 percent. Alan Greenspan had the good sense to ignore this view and allowed the unemployment rate to continue to fall, eventually bottoming out at 3.8 percent in some months in 2000. The result was that millions of people had jobs who would not otherwise have been able to, and tens of millions saw pay increases. And, we had trillions of dollars in additional output.
The gains from lower unemployment contrasted with the risks of higher inflation seem so asymmetric that it is difficult to see why the Fed should move to dampen growth until there is real evidence of higher wage growth and accelerating inflation. There clearly is none now, so why shouldn't the Fed be prepared to take the Greenspan gamble?
This you learned after you got dead drunk and rolled off bar stool into the Marine Recruiting Office, and went to kill the Yellow Man, and now you say it was all a mistake, you didn't know what you were doing, which is obvious, and you, you ASSHOLE, criticize me for reading literature.
You are an ASSHOLE, General '4th of July' Rufus Doofus.
An ignoramus, a drunken Mississippi Hick of the First Order.
This isn't supposed to happen. People are supposed to start getting raises once unemployment get this low. But the economy apparently hasn't gotten the memo.
And that's kind of good news.
Here's some more. The economy added 295,000 jobs in February (but did lose 18,000 in revisions to previous months), there were 175,000 fewer people who wanted full-time jobs but could only find part-time work, and the unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5 percent. And, as we'll get to in a minute, even the fact that average hourly earnings only grew 2 percent the past year had a distinctly silver-ish lining to it. The only not-so-good news was that the labor force shrank by 178,000, although that was probably just making up for how much it grew in January.
The recovery, in other words, is still real even if the strong dollar might keep it from becoming spectacular. The economy's added an average of 288,000 jobs a month the past three, 303,000 the past six, and 272,000 the past twelve. That, as you can see below, is the best it's been since 2000. It's becoming a familiar story: lower oil prices have given people more money to spend, which leads to more spending, and in turn even more jobs. It hasn't hurt that austerity is over, and interest rates have stayed at zero. Add it all up, and even though housing is still stuck somewhere between a depression and the doldrums, it's starting to resemble a real recovery.
Cool Chart
So when will workers get a raise? The honest answer is nobody knows. The Dallas Fed found that wages tend to increase when unemployment falls below 6.1 percent, and workers have more leverage. But that hasn't happened now. Not even close. Why? Well, probably because there's still so much shadow unemployment—people who can't find full-time jobs, people who haven't been able to find any job in six months or more, and people who have given up looking for now—that the official unemployment rate doesn't tell us how much slack is really left in the economy.
If you think about it, this is actually good news. Companies would only be paying people more if they'd already written off the shadow unemployed. So the fact that this hasn't happened means that we could still bring these people off the sidelines and back into the labor force. But this is only good news if the Federal Reserves lets it be. Even though wages and prices are quiescent, the Fed keeps saying that it wants to raise rates in June, because, well, it wants to. Okay, that's not quite right. It's that unemployment is as low as the Fed thinks it can get before inflation takes off, so it wants to get ahead of things and start hiking now. If they do that, though, they'll be ignoring what looks like a chance to push unemployment further than anymore thought it could, and give workers their first pay boost in 15 years now. There's no inflationary pressure, no bubbly behavior, just no reason to tighten policy except for the belief that unemployment can't go a lot lower.
Wages are telling us it can, though. The Fed should listen.
My opinion, a gradual rise in interest rates will have little effect on employment one way or the other. The FED has indulged in a supply side policy since 2008 and that policy has gradually run out of steam. At this point, the driving factor in employment and wage growth will be increasing demand. It could be argued that at this point in this economy FED policy is actually hurting some areas, housing for instance, even though that is counter-intuitive.
A gradual rise in interest rates will have only temporary, short term effects on the market as expectations for gradual rate increases are already built into valuations. More troubling is the gradually increasing PE ratios. It can be argued that the market is getting expensive.
Trying to compare the 1990's to today is difficult as the factors driving the economy, employment, and productivity are significantly different.
In 2008, Yellen was the chief proponent of an accommodative FED policy to address the crisis, more so than Bernanke. I expect she will be the last one at the FED to raise rates if she thinks it will have a seriously negative impact.
A higher FED rate would hurt borrowing at the national and corporate level. Corporate debt has risen substantially in the last year. Unfortunately, rather than increase investment, they have been using the money to finance stock buybacks which helps their stock price but does little to help the economy.
I would agree, Quirk, except I've never seen the Fed stop when they should. They inevitably keep pushing until they put us into recession.
When the 10 yr. is sitting at 2.20%, anything more than a 0.50 to 0.75% FF Rate starts getting problematic. The problem, so far, is that the threat of Fed raising hasn't been able to budge the longer rates upward at all.
I'm just afraid they'll keep going until they invert the yield curve, a guaranteed recession. I hope I'm wrong, but doubt that I am.
Also, higher rates, even if only a couple of quarters will just serve to strengthen the dollar, and it's gotten ungodly high, already.
And, all this while the Core Inflation Rate is at 1.3%, YOY, and dropping (the 3 mo. Core Rate is 0.8% annualized.)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress was eloquent, moving and intelligent in identifying the problems with the potential nuclear deal with Iran. But when describing the alternative to it, Netanyahu entered never-never land, painting a scenario utterly divorced from reality. Congress joined him on his fantasy ride, rapturously applauding as he spun out one unattainable demand after another.
Netanyahu declared that Washington should reject the current deal, demand that Tehran dismantle almost its entire nuclear program and commit never to restart it. In the world according to Bibi, the Chinese, Russians and Europeans will cheer, tighten sanctions, and increase pressure — which would then lead Iran to capitulate. “Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough,” said Peter Pan. Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Post. He is also the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for The Atlantic. View Archive
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We have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. Between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president, Mohammad Khatami, Iran negotiated with three European Union powers a possible deal to place its nuclear program under constraints and inspections. The chief nuclear negotiator at the time was Hassan Rouhani, now Iran’s president.
Iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels, keep enrichment levels well below those that could be used for weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods (which could not be put to military use). Peter Jenkins, the British representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Inter Press Service , “All of us were impressed by the proposal.” But the talks collapsed because the Bush administration, acting through the British government, vetoed it. It was certain, Jenkins explained, that if the West could “scare” the Iranians, “they would give in.”
What was the result? Did Iran return to the table and capitulate? No, the country withstood the sanctions and, unimpeded by any inspections, massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. Iran went from 164 centrifuges to 19,000, accumulated more than 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at Arak that could be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium...
(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department is preparing criminal corruption charges against New Jersey Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, CNN reported on Friday.
Citing unnamed sources briefed on the case, CNN said the charges center on allegations Menendez used his office to promote the business interests of a Democratic Party donor and friend in exchange for gifts.
Menendez's office said he would speak to the media at 7 p.m. on Friday in Newark, New Jersey.
"As we have said before, we believe all of the senator's actions have been appropriate and lawful, and the facts will ultimately confirm that," Tricia Enright, Menendez's communications director, said in a statement.
Noting the official investigation of the matter was ongoing, she said the senator's office "cannot address allegations being made anonymously."
CNN said Attorney General Eric Holder has given the green light for prosecutors to proceed with charges and an announcement could arrive in coming weeks.
Love to see Menendez taken down not only because of corruption but also because he is one of the biggest neocons out there, but...
On the other side, every year government fraud and waste is enormous. However, last year the government lost $125 billion in improper payments (Medicare, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credit), a new record and 1/4 of the deficit, despite the fact that new regulations were instituted to reduce the fraud. As with most, fuck-ups in this administration once again no one, no one is held responsible and made to pay a price.
Also, despite rules put in to protect whistleblowers, we still hear that they are not working, the latest example being at the FBI.
Heard a great suggestion from Greta VanSustern tonight. She suggested that just as the IRS pays a percentage to whistleblowers who point out fraud in the private sector, we should set up the same rewards for whistleblowers. Finding $10 million in fraud or waste and getting 10% of it, $1 million, would go a long way to alleviating any fears a whistleblower might feel about being discriminated against for turning the perp in.
.
I am not. Despite laws put in to protect whistleblowers
Efforts to reduce improper payments could result in significant cost savings. For the first time in recent years, the government-wide improper payment estimate significantly increased—to $124.7 billion in fiscal year 2014, up from $105.8 billion in fiscal year 2013.
...DOJ took from 2 to 10.6 years to resolve the 4 complaints we reviewed that DOJ adjudicated, and DOJ did not provide complainants with estimates of when to expect DOJ decisions throughout the complaint process. Providing such estimates would enhance accountability to complainants and provide additional assurance about DOJ management's commitment to improve efficiency.
Further, DOJ offices responsible for investigating whistleblower retaliation complaints have not consistently complied with certain regulatory requirements, such as obtaining complainants' approvals for extensions of time. One investigating office does not track investigators' compliance with specific regulatory requirements and does not have a formal oversight mechanism to do so. Effectively monitoring investigators' compliance with such requirements could help assure complainants that their cases are making progress and that they have the information they need to determine next steps for their complaints...
Dual citizens in the US Congress, a not "Real Americans", they are citizens of two countries, their loyalties divided. They are hyphenated Americans, by their own choice.
Discrimination against the holder of one faith means retaliatory discrimination against men of other faiths. The inevitable result of entering upon such a practice would be an abandonment of our real freedom of conscience and a reversion to the dreadful conditions of religious dissension which in so many lands have proved fatal to true liberty, to true religion, and to all advance in civilization. - Theodore Roosevelt
It is neither comical, nor an insult, to state the truth about Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson. The bank fraud, he has admitted to, tried to justify. The "Draft Dodging", admitted to, as well. Voter Fraud, his wife voted in a state where she was not a resident, in a state where she did not have a drivers license. She was a resident of Idaho, voting in Ohio.
All documented, in Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson's own words.
If there is comedy in tragedy, Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson may just personify it.
But then Legionnaire Q ... You have felt the Responsibility to Protect for quite a while, haven't you?
Ash Thu May 27, 10:42:00 AM EDT
why you feel a need to protect bob from himself I don't understand Quirk. He's been posting inane stuff for a long time. It gets tiresome. http://2164th.blogspot.com/2010/05/just-what-is-obamas-expertise.html
Five years, and more, yo have been trying to protect the lying, bank defrauding draft dodger ... The racist and bigot.
As Ash asked ... Why? He did not even heed your advise to delete the bank fraud post.
Stay at it Legionnaire, if that is your desire, but be advised ... Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson does not deserve the pity you provide him.
Iraqi forces have driven Islamic State out of the western town of al-Baghdadi -- close to a military base where U.S. forces are training Iraqis.
The Combined Joint Task Force said Friday Iraqi forces and tribal fighters from the Anbar region successfully cleared the town of Islamic State, retaking the police station and three bridges across the Euphrates River.
The militants have held the bridges since September.
The task force said the U.S.-led coalition delivered "precise and effective" airstrikes on Islamic State targets in support of the Iraqis.
Here is an example of where the Rat Doctrine is being implemented, US and Coalition air support is being provided to Iraqi security forces, Daesh fighters are being annihilated.
The troops and allied Shiite and Sunni militias, covered by Iraqi aircraft, entered in the afternoon the town of Dour, in south of the provincial capital city of Tikrit, some 170 km north of Baghdad, from all directions after heavy bombardment on the central neighborhoods, a security source from Salahudin province told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
"Most of Daash (IS militant group) foreign fighters have fled the town earlier and only few local fighters remained," the source said, adding that the troops were still fighting sporadic clashes in small pockets inside the town.The troops and allied Shiite and Sunni militias, covered by Iraqi aircraft, entered in the afternoon the town of Dour, in south of the provincial capital city of Tikrit, some 170 km north of Baghdad, from all directions after heavy bombardment on the central neighborhoods, a security source from Salahudin province told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
"Most of Daash (IS militant group) foreign fighters have fled the town earlier and only few local fighters remained," the source said, adding that the troops were still fighting sporadic clashes in small pockets inside the town.
The Israelis aren't. They're fighting on the side of ISIS.
ReplyDeleteYes, they are.
DeleteIsraeli divisions are defending Tikrit as I type.
Israeli air power has been moved into the airports of Mosul.
(Bobbo - I can't understand what's happening, drunk as I am. This usually clears my mind. I saw the Star of David in the sky, and I don't think it was the booze, though it might have been. All well here at the Three Horn Borello, getting guts fucked out. More later. Q)
Three Horn Bordello, dammit
DeleteI did get "getting guts fucked out" correctly.
DeleteI hate transcribing.
In Tikrit,, it appears, the USA and coalition are sitting it out while Iran and the Iraqi Shia are taking it to IS.
ReplyDeleteReally? Where have You been for the last week? ;)
DeleteExcellent update, Noble Ash.
DeleteLet's hope, rufus, that it is just IS they take out instead of the Sunni.
DeleteThe Sunni ARE ISIS you moron.
DeleteThat's why they walked through that area like taking a stroll in the park.
All the Sunni run their ass over to ISIS, giving them their weapons.
The Shia headed back to Baghdad.
This was all brought to us by our Napoleon on the Potomac fo taking the troops out too soon.....
You are always a slow learner, Noble Ash, but teachable, unlike our Host, Rufus, and The Crapper.
Everyone in Mosul who didn't cotton to ISIS got the fuck out.
DeleteDeclare war, demand unconditional surrender, and flatten the fucking place.
Or, just support the Kurds, like I advocate.
Let the Shia and Sunni kill one another.
After all, Q, The House Logician, has ruled out of bounds any humanitarian considerations in the imbroglio.
You really are a simpleton bob. too bad you aren't a man of your word.
Delete
ReplyDeleteThe NAIRU Straitjacket and Cromwell’s Rule
March 6, 2015 10:34 am March 6, 2015 10:34 am Comment
Today’s employment report continued the pattern we’ve been seeing for a while. Unemployment is falling, and is now very close to previous estimates of the NAIRU, the unemployment rate at which inflation begins accelerating. But inflation isn’t accelerating; in particular, there is still no hint of wage pressure in the data. So what should the Fed do?
My answer is, apply Cromwell’s rule:
I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.
OK, maybe skip the bowels part.
The NAIRU is, I’d still argue, a useful concept, mainly because it’s a caution against expecting too much from monetary policy in the long run. Much as I want full employment, there is some lower bound on the unemployment rate, a rate that you just can’t achieve on a sustained basis with demand-side policies. But it’s not very useful as a guide to short- and medium-term policy, because we do not have any good idea of where that lower bound lies.
I very much hope that Fed staff remembers the 1990s. Circa 1994 it was widely believed, based on seemingly solid research, that the NAIRU was around 6 percent; but Greenspan and company decided to wait for actual evidence of rising inflation, and the result was a long run of job growth that brought unemployment below 4 percent without any kind of inflationary explosion. Suppose they had targeted the presumed NAIRU instead; they would have sacrificed trillions in foregone output, plus all the good things that come from a tight labor market.
This time around there is even more reason not to assume that we know where the NAIRU is, because we now know that premature rate hikes can all too easily land you in a low-inflation trap that’s very hard to escape. Think Japan 2000 (an incident I think many people have forgotten), the ECB 2011, Sweden after 2010.
Maybe full employment really is 5.3 percent unemployment, and by the time that’s clear the inflation rate will have ticked up a bit above the Fed’s target. But that would not be a large cost, whereas sliding back into the liquidity trap would be very, very costly. So please, Janet, Stan, and company, think it possible that . . . .
Krugman - New York Times
What the hell? Sorry 'bout that.
DeleteNo problem.
DeleteI generally agree with Paul Krugman in his arguments on macro policy, but sometimes it is worth emphasizing a point of agreement. Krugman really nails the issue today in discussing the Fed's approach to tightening.
DeleteThe question is at what point should the Fed start raising interest rates to keep the unemployment rate from falling further. The concern is that if unemployment gets too low, the inflation rate would start to accelerate. Krugman points out that we really don't know the level of unemployment that is low enough to trigger accelerating inflation, although many people have put it in the 5.3-5.5 percent range. If the Fed acted on this view then it would be raising interest rates very soon to keep the unemployment rate from falling below this level.
But there was a widely held view back in the 1990s, back up by a considerable amount of evidence, that the magic number was close to 6.0 percent. Alan Greenspan had the good sense to ignore this view and allowed the unemployment rate to continue to fall, eventually bottoming out at 3.8 percent in some months in 2000. The result was that millions of people had jobs who would not otherwise have been able to, and tens of millions saw pay increases. And, we had trillions of dollars in additional output.
The gains from lower unemployment contrasted with the risks of higher inflation seem so asymmetric that it is difficult to see why the Fed should move to dampen growth until there is real evidence of higher wage growth and accelerating inflation. There clearly is none now, so why shouldn't the Fed be prepared to take the Greenspan gamble?
Dean Baker
Netanyahu, the Neocons and the Republicans want to do to Iran what they did to Iraq:
ReplyDeleteWho won’t be suffering the casualties?
The Saudis
The Israelis
The Neocons
The DC establishment
The IDF
Who will suffer the casualties?
Who will pay for it?
Which US and Israeli defense contractors will benefit?
Just like Farrakhan, or something.
DeleteWe KNOW now that the Republicans are WORSE than Farrakhan, that Saint.
Yours Truly,
Daffy Duck
Mother fuckin' Republicans, mother fuckin' Jews, mother fuckin' money men, mother fuckin' media
ReplyDeleteMother Fuck
Daffy Duck
Mother fuckin' Netanyahu...........that Kike
DeleteHe doesn't get it, the Mother Fuck.
The Iranians are fighting for civilization.
Yours Truly,
Daffy Duck
They are fighting for a world without Philly.
DeleteA civilized world.
Among the phrases I never heard in Vietnam:
ReplyDelete"My father the President."
"My father the Senator."
"My father the Congressman"
"My father the National Security Advisor"
"My father the Fortune 500 Company CEO"
"My father the powerful AIPAC Lobbyist."
"My father the Famous Right Wing Radio Talker."
Words you were taught in Vietnam
DeleteThey are all Cong
Kill the Fuckers
Throw them out of airplanes
Free Fire Zone
Yellow Bastards
etc
This you learned after you got dead drunk and rolled off bar stool into the Marine Recruiting Office, and went to kill the Yellow Man, and now you say it was all a mistake, you didn't know what you were doing, which is obvious, and you, you ASSHOLE, criticize me for reading literature.
You are an ASSHOLE, General '4th of July' Rufus Doofus.
An ignoramus, a drunken Mississippi Hick of the First Order.
A racist, illiterate, drunken Mississippi ASSHOLE OF THE FIRST ORDER.
DeleteThe kind of guy that would fight for Hamas, you ASSHOLE.
DeleteThis isn't supposed to happen. People are supposed to start getting raises once unemployment get this low. But the economy apparently hasn't gotten the memo.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's kind of good news.
Here's some more. The economy added 295,000 jobs in February (but did lose 18,000 in revisions to previous months), there were 175,000 fewer people who wanted full-time jobs but could only find part-time work, and the unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5 percent. And, as we'll get to in a minute, even the fact that average hourly earnings only grew 2 percent the past year had a distinctly silver-ish lining to it. The only not-so-good news was that the labor force shrank by 178,000, although that was probably just making up for how much it grew in January.
The recovery, in other words, is still real even if the strong dollar might keep it from becoming spectacular. The economy's added an average of 288,000 jobs a month the past three, 303,000 the past six, and 272,000 the past twelve. That, as you can see below, is the best it's been since 2000. It's becoming a familiar story: lower oil prices have given people more money to spend, which leads to more spending, and in turn even more jobs. It hasn't hurt that austerity is over, and interest rates have stayed at zero. Add it all up, and even though housing is still stuck somewhere between a depression and the doldrums, it's starting to resemble a real recovery.
Cool Chart
So when will workers get a raise? The honest answer is nobody knows. The Dallas Fed found that wages tend to increase when unemployment falls below 6.1 percent, and workers have more leverage. But that hasn't happened now. Not even close. Why? Well, probably because there's still so much shadow unemployment—people who can't find full-time jobs, people who haven't been able to find any job in six months or more, and people who have given up looking for now—that the official unemployment rate doesn't tell us how much slack is really left in the economy.
If you think about it, this is actually good news. Companies would only be paying people more if they'd already written off the shadow unemployed. So the fact that this hasn't happened means that we could still bring these people off the sidelines and back into the labor force. But this is only good news if the Federal Reserves lets it be. Even though wages and prices are quiescent, the Fed keeps saying that it wants to raise rates in June, because, well, it wants to. Okay, that's not quite right. It's that unemployment is as low as the Fed thinks it can get before inflation takes off, so it wants to get ahead of things and start hiking now. If they do that, though, they'll be ignoring what looks like a chance to push unemployment further than anymore thought it could, and give workers their first pay boost in 15 years now. There's no inflationary pressure, no bubbly behavior, just no reason to tighten policy except for the belief that unemployment can't go a lot lower.
Wages are telling us it can, though. The Fed should listen.
Wonkblog
Come back, WiO.
ReplyDeleteI'm askin'.
I plead.
I can't handled it all alone.
He’s not coming back, because anything he posts, Ill delete.
DeleteThen I will stay, to take his place.
DeleteYou ass.
.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion, a gradual rise in interest rates will have little effect on employment one way or the other. The FED has indulged in a supply side policy since 2008 and that policy has gradually run out of steam. At this point, the driving factor in employment and wage growth will be increasing demand. It could be argued that at this point in this economy FED policy is actually hurting some areas, housing for instance, even though that is counter-intuitive.
A gradual rise in interest rates will have only temporary, short term effects on the market as expectations for gradual rate increases are already built into valuations. More troubling is the gradually increasing PE ratios. It can be argued that the market is getting expensive.
Trying to compare the 1990's to today is difficult as the factors driving the economy, employment, and productivity are significantly different.
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.
DeleteThis would change, of course, if rates were increased sharply or rapidly; but I have not seen anyone that expects that.
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DeleteIn 2008, Yellen was the chief proponent of an accommodative FED policy to address the crisis, more so than Bernanke. I expect she will be the last one at the FED to raise rates if she thinks it will have a seriously negative impact.
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DeleteA higher FED rate would hurt borrowing at the national and corporate level. Corporate debt has risen substantially in the last year. Unfortunately, rather than increase investment, they have been using the money to finance stock buybacks which helps their stock price but does little to help the economy.
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I would agree, Quirk, except I've never seen the Fed stop when they should. They inevitably keep pushing until they put us into recession.
DeleteWhen the 10 yr. is sitting at 2.20%, anything more than a 0.50 to 0.75% FF Rate starts getting problematic. The problem, so far, is that the threat of Fed raising hasn't been able to budge the longer rates upward at all.
I'm just afraid they'll keep going until they invert the yield curve, a guaranteed recession. I hope I'm wrong, but doubt that I am.
Also, higher rates, even if only a couple of quarters will just serve to strengthen the dollar, and it's gotten ungodly high, already.
And, all this while the Core Inflation Rate is at 1.3%, YOY, and dropping (the 3 mo. Core Rate is 0.8% annualized.)
I just wish they'd wait a bit.
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ReplyDeleteMore Lore from the Legend of Bush and Bibi
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress was eloquent, moving and intelligent in identifying the problems with the potential nuclear deal with Iran. But when describing the alternative to it, Netanyahu entered never-never land, painting a scenario utterly divorced from reality. Congress joined him on his fantasy ride, rapturously applauding as he spun out one unattainable demand after another.
Netanyahu declared that Washington should reject the current deal, demand that Tehran dismantle almost its entire nuclear program and commit never to restart it. In the world according to Bibi, the Chinese, Russians and Europeans will cheer, tighten sanctions, and increase pressure — which would then lead Iran to capitulate. “Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough,” said Peter Pan.
Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Post. He is also the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for The Atlantic. View Archive
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RSS
We have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. Between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president, Mohammad Khatami, Iran negotiated with three European Union powers a possible deal to place its nuclear program under constraints and inspections. The chief nuclear negotiator at the time was Hassan Rouhani, now Iran’s president.
Iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels, keep enrichment levels well below those that could be used for weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods (which could not be put to military use). Peter Jenkins, the British representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Inter Press Service , “All of us were impressed by the proposal.” But the talks collapsed because the Bush administration, acting through the British government, vetoed it. It was certain, Jenkins explained, that if the West could “scare” the Iranians, “they would give in.”
What was the result? Did Iran return to the table and capitulate? No, the country withstood the sanctions and, unimpeded by any inspections, massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. Iran went from 164 centrifuges to 19,000, accumulated more than 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at Arak that could be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/netanyahu-enters-never-never-land/2015/03/05/2f279c3c-c372-11e4-ad5c-3b8ce89f1b89_story.html?wprss=rss_opinions
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DeleteOf course, Bibi and the neocons in both the GOP and the Dems are looking for war.
Only a moron wouldn't recognize that negotiations are the only alternative. Oh wait...
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Bush Inc. - Genii Unlimited
ReplyDeleteI am warming up to Obama:
ReplyDelete(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department is preparing criminal corruption charges against New Jersey Democratic Senator Robert Menendez, CNN reported on Friday.
Citing unnamed sources briefed on the case, CNN said the charges center on allegations Menendez used his office to promote the business interests of a Democratic Party donor and friend in exchange for gifts.
Menendez's office said he would speak to the media at 7 p.m. on Friday in Newark, New Jersey.
"As we have said before, we believe all of the senator's actions have been appropriate and lawful, and the facts will ultimately confirm that," Tricia Enright, Menendez's communications director, said in a statement.
Noting the official investigation of the matter was ongoing, she said the senator's office "cannot address allegations being made anonymously."
CNN said Attorney General Eric Holder has given the green light for prosecutors to proceed with charges and an announcement could arrive in coming weeks.
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DeleteI am warming up to Obama:
I am not.
Love to see Menendez taken down not only because of corruption but also because he is one of the biggest neocons out there, but...
On the other side, every year government fraud and waste is enormous. However, last year the government lost $125 billion in improper payments (Medicare, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credit), a new record and 1/4 of the deficit, despite the fact that new regulations were instituted to reduce the fraud. As with most, fuck-ups in this administration once again no one, no one is held responsible and made to pay a price.
Also, despite rules put in to protect whistleblowers, we still hear that they are not working, the latest example being at the FBI.
Heard a great suggestion from Greta VanSustern tonight. She suggested that just as the IRS pays a percentage to whistleblowers who point out fraud in the private sector, we should set up the same rewards for whistleblowers. Finding $10 million in fraud or waste and getting 10% of it, $1 million, would go a long way to alleviating any fears a whistleblower might feel about being discriminated against for turning the perp in.
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I am not. Despite laws put in to protect whistleblowers
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Deletes/b...'set up the same rewards for government whistleblowers.'
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Ahh, bullshit Quirk. Give us a reference for that $125 Billion.
Delete.
DeleteSaw it in a session on FOX, interview with a Rep.
The hockey game was starting. I didn't check it out.
Between periods. will check now.
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Fox? :) :)
DeleteYeah, Good Luck.
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DeleteEfforts to reduce improper payments could result in significant cost savings. For the first time in recent years, the government-wide improper payment estimate significantly increased—to $124.7 billion in fiscal year 2014, up from $105.8 billion in fiscal year 2013.
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-440T
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I went to your link, but I found nothing resembling your quote.
Delete.
Delete...DOJ took from 2 to 10.6 years to resolve the 4 complaints we reviewed that DOJ adjudicated, and DOJ did not provide complainants with estimates of when to expect DOJ decisions throughout the complaint process. Providing such estimates would enhance accountability to complainants and provide additional assurance about DOJ management's commitment to improve efficiency.
Further, DOJ offices responsible for investigating whistleblower retaliation complaints have not consistently complied with certain regulatory requirements, such as obtaining complainants' approvals for extensions of time. One investigating office does not track investigators' compliance with specific regulatory requirements and does not have a formal oversight mechanism to do so. Effectively monitoring investigators' compliance with such requirements could help assure complainants that their cases are making progress and that they have the information they need to determine next steps for their complaints...
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-343T
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DeleteLook under Government Efficiency and Effectiveness
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Just put up the freakin' link, son.
Delete.
DeleteI did. Go to that page. Half way down the page. Right under the table.
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He may be a skinny prick but he knows how to street fight>
ReplyDeleteYeah. He might have been born in Hawaii, but that stopover in Chicago must have had an effect. :)
DeleteAIPAC or Obama/
DeleteBe careful pilgrim,
Choose Wisely.
:)
Quinnipiac: 62% of Americans Support Ground Troops to Combat ISIS.
ReplyDeleteJeez. Football season is over, and Americans are missing their televised war.
DeleteThere's no hope.
Deuce has banned WiO.
ReplyDeleteDeuce couldn't handle his truth telling and criticisms of this place.
I have decided to stay and try to fill in for WiO.
Deuce does not believe in freedom of speech, obviously.
But he does think he can adjudicate who is and who is not a 'real American'..
All the while saying that
"Iran is fighting for civilization"
Deuce is Daffy Duck
And Dastardly too.
In my humble opinion.
Is Deuce anti- semitic ?
DeleteIs he racist ?
Yes
Recall his wild eyed opinions about our great man, Lincoln.
Your bluff was called and you caved - I saw it coming from a mile away.
DeleteMy wife, who knows her Lincoln, laughed when I told her some of the things Deuce had said.
DeleteLincoln the pervert, Lincoln getting his rocks off with the thought of dead young men....
It's disgusting.
It is Daffy Duck.
Deuce is racist against White Politicians?
DeleteIt's pretty fucking humble, all right.
DeleteAgainst Jews.
DeleteAnd against blacks.
His opinion was that blacks should have been left to languish in slavery.
You read it.
Speak up.
You did at the time, I recall.
DeleteNow he says:
"Iran is fighting for civilization"
This is an absurdity.
Make him take it back.
It is Daffy Duck.
I don't agree with Deuce on Lincoln, but That is not what he said.
DeleteRobert "Draft dodger" Peterson cannot tell the truth, it is beyond his abilities.
DeleteAccording to Deuce, Israel controls all 535 members of Congress.
ReplyDeleteYou all know this is not so.
Speak up. Say something about it.
It is Daffy Duck.
Do you think Israel controls your member of Congress there in Mississippi, Rufus ?
DeleteI know for a fact Israel does not control my member of Congress.
Let us bring Deuce back to Earth.
Of course they do, you dumb fuck. Go to bed.
Delete:))))))
DeleteRufus is now on record as saying the Israelis control his member of Congress.
Rufus has proven my point.
Deuce, Rufus ------ Daffy Duck World.
Why are you not out marching in the street in protest, O Great One ?
DeleteYou sit there with your bottle of Beam and your case of Bud and let the Israelis run you life.
Some American !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Dual citizens in the US Congress, a not "Real Americans", they are citizens of two countries, their loyalties divided.
DeleteThey are hyphenated Americans, by their own choice.
WiO is a real American.
ReplyDeleteDeuce is a real American.
I am a real American.
Rufus is a real American.
Ash is a real Canadian.
Quirk is a real American.
etc
We may disagree on things, but I would never call anyone except felons not real Americans.
The Republicans are real Americans.
The Democrats are real Americans.
Even that classic bitch Hillary is a real American.
Alas.
You can make up your own mind about Farrakhan.
I think Farrakhan is not a real American, as I know he has committed felonies.
Go to bed.
DeleteGo to bed yourself, Mississippi asshole.
DeleteYou are the most illiterate swamp rat on this blog.
Your efforts at understanding religious literature are pathetic.
You are Beam/Bud dead.
DeleteDiscrimination against the holder of one faith means retaliatory discrimination against men of other faiths. The inevitable result of entering upon such a practice would be an abandonment of our real freedom of conscience and a reversion to the dreadful conditions of religious dissension which in so many lands have proved fatal to true liberty, to true religion, and to all advance in civilization.
- Theodore Roosevelt
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ReplyDeleteYour bluff was called and you caved - I saw it coming from a mile away.
Heck, Ash, if it wasn't for Bob, we wouldn't see you here.
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Delete:o)
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I often think Quirk to be the greatest American of us all.
ReplyDeleteMy God he is magnificent when he has given up on life....unstoppable...and he always survives....
(Bobbo - Not much info about Tikrit yet. But the Russian came through with Vodka. They always do in a pinch. Get me an airline ticket on your Visa. Q)
ReplyDeleteI think WiO is a real American.
ReplyDeleteI think Deuce is a real American.
I think it disgusting that one real American bans another real American from his blog.
What about Barack Obama? Is He a real American?
DeleteThe Supreme Court and the other courts puntted on the issue.
DeleteDeuce has said the son bitch was born in Kenya.
I am uncertain who his father was (where did he get the heigth ?) nor where he was born.
His mother was white crazy. A slut of the first order.
His mentor perhaps his father was crazy as hell Frank Marshall Davis.
What do you think
?
Is he a real American ?
I would desire to see the current opinion of Deuce on this issue.
DeleteIf Obama wishes to substitute Sharia Law, which he does, for the United States Constitution, then, finally, I am for the folks.
How about you?
Deuce is on record saying the son bitch was born in Kenya.
Delete.
DeleteHeck, he is a true American hero.
Sean Hannity Reacts to News of Megyn Kelly Replacing Him at Fox News
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Where do you think he was born ?
DeleteWho do you think is his father ?
Is he a Natural Born Citizen ?
The world is awaiting your opinion on these matters, Rufus.
I am awaiting Judge Jeanine to replace them all.
ReplyDeleteTHERE is a hell of a WOMAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"If the political winds change, I will stand with the Moslems"
ReplyDeleteBarrack Obama
I ask our Dufus Rufus:
DeleteIs this the statement of a 'real American' in your mind ?
I also ask this simple question to our gracious Host, Deuce.
A "Real American" is not a bank fraudster or draft dodger, as is Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson.
DeleteA man that tried to defend voter fraud, by a family member, in the 2008 election in Ohio.
Those are the actions of a civil miscreant, not a 'real citizen'.
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DeleteHey, rat the comical insult dog is back.
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It is neither comical, nor an insult, to state the truth about Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson.
DeleteThe bank fraud, he has admitted to, tried to justify.
The "Draft Dodging", admitted to, as well.
Voter Fraud, his wife voted in a state where she was not a resident, in a state where she did not have a drivers license.
She was a resident of Idaho, voting in Ohio.
All documented, in Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson's own words.
If there is comedy in tragedy, Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson may just personify it.
{;-)
But then Legionnaire Q ...
DeleteYou have felt the Responsibility to Protect for quite a while, haven't you?
Ash Thu May 27, 10:42:00 AM EDT
why you feel a need to protect bob from himself I don't understand Quirk. He's been posting inane stuff for a long time. It gets tiresome.
http://2164th.blogspot.com/2010/05/just-what-is-obamas-expertise.html
Five years, and more, yo have been trying to protect the lying, bank defrauding draft dodger ...
The racist and bigot.
As Ash asked ... Why?
He did not even heed your advise to delete the bank fraud post.
Stay at it Legionnaire, if that is your desire, but be advised ...
Robert "Draft Dodger" Peterson does not deserve the pity you provide him.
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DeleteNo RTP for Bob. He's been silly enough tonight.
Now WiO is misguided, offers revisions to history that are silly, rationalizes Israeli actions, still...
WiO is not here but you still are and so am I, sooo...
..
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DeleteIt is neither comical, nor an insult, to state the truth about the rat
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Iraqi forces have driven Islamic State out of the western town of al-Baghdadi -- close to a military base where U.S. forces are training Iraqis.
ReplyDeleteThe Combined Joint Task Force said Friday Iraqi forces and tribal fighters from the Anbar region successfully cleared the town of Islamic State, retaking the police station and three bridges across the Euphrates River.
The militants have held the bridges since September.
The task force said the U.S.-led coalition delivered "precise and effective" airstrikes on Islamic State targets in support of the Iraqis.
http://www.voanews.com/content/islamic-state-destroys-ancient-city-of-nimrud/2669993.html
Here is an example of where the Rat Doctrine is being implemented, US and Coalition air support is being provided to Iraqi security forces, Daesh fighters are being annihilated.
Delete
ReplyDeleteThe troops and allied Shiite and Sunni militias, covered by Iraqi aircraft, entered in the afternoon the town of Dour, in south of the provincial capital city of Tikrit, some 170 km north of Baghdad, from all directions after heavy bombardment on the central neighborhoods, a security source from Salahudin province told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
"Most of Daash (IS militant group) foreign fighters have fled the town earlier and only few local fighters remained," the source said, adding that the troops were still fighting sporadic clashes in small pockets inside the town.The troops and allied Shiite and Sunni militias, covered by Iraqi aircraft, entered in the afternoon the town of Dour, in south of the provincial capital city of Tikrit, some 170 km north of Baghdad, from all directions after heavy bombardment on the central neighborhoods, a security source from Salahudin province told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
"Most of Daash (IS militant group) foreign fighters have fled the town earlier and only few local fighters remained," the source said, adding that the troops were still fighting sporadic clashes in small pockets inside the town.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-03/07/c_134045442.htm
Ash's wish is being fulfilled, the Iraqi are waging the war without US support.
DeleteThe weapons are Warsaw Pact, AKs, SU-25s and Mi-24s.
Daesh is falling back, the US is not involved, at all.
The Iraqi are being aided by Iranians ...
No US troops or treasure involved.
{;-)
The war crimes, the killing of innocents, our dog has admitted to that.
ReplyDeleteIn addition:
"I am a professional asshole"
ratasshiole
ratasshole
Deletesorry
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DeleteWhy don't you go to bed, Bob?
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