President Barack Hussein ObamaTheir vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America”
"We have to live within our means, reduce our deficit, and get back on a path that will allow us to pay down our debt," President Barack Hussein Obama (with a straight face)
"This is not a vision of the America I know,"
"They want to give people like me a $200,000 tax cut that's paid for by asking 33 seniors to each pay $6,000 more in health costs? That's not right, and it's not going to happen as long as I'm president.
"The fact is, their vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America.
President Barack Hussein Obama (with a straight face and the big bald face lies )"Doing nothing on the deficit is just not an option," he said. "Our debt has grown so large that we could do real damage to the economy if we don't begin a process now to get our fiscal house in order."President Barack Hussein Obama (with a straight face )
The President can't do anything with this "Right Wing" and rich whitey who wants the poor to make all the sacrifices.
ReplyDeleteAll the code talking by Obama cannot disguise facts:
ReplyDeleteObama is all about redistributing as much wealth as he thinks he can get away with from white America to black America. The distribution, to be long lasting, has to be baked into entitlements and regulations. The debate in the black community is about the level of redistribution. Whites are uncomfortable about talking in racial terms. Blacks have no such reticence. Blacks embrace blackness and whites fear the discussion and the very thought about whiteness.
Squirm if you must, but deny what is happening at your own peril. Individual accomplishment, thrift, and planning for your own future is being replaced with entitlements, public welfare and redistribution. It is the overwhelming choice of American blacks, single white mothers and Hispanics. Together with white liberals you have the development of a coalition of takers, most with little in the game and more to gain by acting in the logical economic manner that gives them the best short term economic advantage.
It is a zero-sum game that barely touches the super rich and corporations but will crush the middle class, who at some time will decide if they cannot beat them, they will join them. That has already happened with extended unemployment benefits.
How does this end? Not very well unless you can hide your remaining assets from further seizure and lay low. The only way to stop it is to radically reduce the size and grasp of government. It may not be too late to do that, but I doubt it. That will likely happen, only if we have a crash. The likelihood of a crash seems more and more likely and inevitable.
Sorry about that.
Obama is "spineless" and will not stand up to the right wing who let the plutocrats and oligarchs live off the backs of the poor.
ReplyDeleteCollective messaging is collectivism.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans do not have the leadership that is smart enough to stop this.
ReplyDeleteThere is a large "progressive" segment of America who are closer ideologically to Lenin than they are to John F. Kennedy.
ReplyDeleteObama is as ugly as it gets.
ReplyDeleteWe've been having a debate in this country about socialism and progressive politics for a long time. Since Woodrow Wilson's days.
ReplyDeleteMany people thought that with the election of the first black President, Uncle Sam would finally be able to "balance the scales of justice". They naively thought that the long hoped for redistribution, restitution and reparation was at hand. They voted for and elected their "one" who offered "hope and change". Unfortunately, when he moved into the White House, he found that the previous occupants had left the cupboards bare.
Now the left wants to ignore the fact that Uncle Sam is broke. They want that redistribution implied in the "Hope and Change" mantra of the election campaign and they have heavyweight economists such as James K. Galbraith and Joseph Stiglitz advocating for massive Federal spending on social and public works programs.
Having said all that about the social democrats, it interesting to watch the DC Republicans who seem to want to maintain the status quo of a large Federal Government in the hope that the economy will kick into a higher gear. They want to hold onto what they've got until the money starts pouring into the treasury again.
ReplyDeleteNow the left wants to ignore the fact that Uncle Sam is broke.
ReplyDeleteOkay, technically he's not broke but like many of us, he's living well beyond his means on a highly diminished income.
He lost a large part of his income but not his obligations.
Now come the painful adjustments.
The only thing we seem to have in abundance these days are pan handlers and bank robbers.
ReplyDeletePity the curse of the grasshoppers pissing away all their surplus living high on the hog all the summer of their lives. Even feeding parasitic grasshoppers and illegally invading grasshoppers and spending tens of trillions "to keep the world of Grasshoppers in other lands safe".
ReplyDeleteAnd now turning to the ants on the base of the pyramid that the grasshoppers assume are supposed to support them all winter. And now complaining insufficient ants exist.
Or in short, how every defective pyramid scheme collapses. A shortage of new or willing suckers at the base of the pyramid.
And the fucking boomers (the grasshoppers) were warned time and time again that there was no surplus being saved.
Options abound for mitigating the fecklessness of the Boomers.
1. Tax the younger ants relentlessly to keep the grasshoppers in all they expected.
2. Reinstate the estate tax on the boomers for spending more than they made and for borrowing already for themselves and the parasites and illegals.
3. End heroic medical care.
4. The fiscal crisis may cause a Constitutional one. Among the necessary fixes are ending free school and med care for illegals and RETROACTIVE cancellation of Anchor Babies citizenship. Send those grasshoppers back out, at gunpoint if necessary.
5. End Bush's multitrillions entitlements for free senior drugs, given on CHina IOUS paying for premium priced drugs since it was all set up as a multitrillion entitlement welfare program for Big Pharma.
6. 20% tariff on all but fininished goods. Rebuild America's industries to begin regenerating our wealth here.
7. We still may have to stiff China, Japan, KSA on some of our debt..by demanding the debt be negotiated down.
Here is a cheery thought from George Will:
ReplyDeleteDavid Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff in Toronto reports that in the last three months, 100 percent of the $55 billion increase in aggregate U.S. wages and salaries has been matched by increased grocery and gasoline prices. They are absorbing 22 percent of wages and salaries, a portion matched only twice in the past two decades — both times presaging recessions.
Under the $600 billion QE2, which ends in June, the Fed has been buying about 70 percent of the Treasury’s new issues of debt. What interest rate might be required to attract buyers to fill the space left when the Fed withdraws from the market?
ReplyDelete… a phone call from an 85-year-old woman in Connecticut. She said she and her late husband had lived frugal lives so they could get by in retirement on interest from their savings. Such people are among the losers under low-interest-rate policies that mock the virtue of saving.
ReplyDeleteThe government gives subsidies and deposit guarantees to big banks and that has effectively been taking savings from the thrifty at the rate of 4% a year.
You fellas are still behind, on the learning curve. The Federals believe they will be bailed out, that inflation will "save" the Federals, as it has for 100 years.
ReplyDeleteThe purchasing power of a one dollar bill has plummeted more than 95% since the Federal Reserve first began printing its legal tender in 1914. Although the dollar’s epic decline began glacially, it has gathered luge-like momentum.
The greenback’s value dropped only 50% during the first 33 years of the Fed’s stewardship – i.e. between 1913 and 1946. But the 1946 dollar would lose half its value in just 24 years, while the 1970 dollar would lose half its value in just nine years. The rate of decay slowed somewhat during the Volcker years, as the 1979 dollar did not lose half its value until 14 years later.
Nevertheless, the dollar’s progression toward zero since 1913 feels more geometric than arithmetic.
In 1914, the year the Federal Reserve began conjuring dollar bills into existence, 700,000 shimmering new $10 Indian Head Gold Eagles rolled out of the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Denver Mints. Once in the hands of a working stiff, each $10 coin would buy $10 worth of goods and services. Likewise, the Fed’s crisp, new McKinley $10 bill would also buy $10 worth of goods and services.
Over the ensuing 98 years, a succession of Federal Reserve Chairmen labored to “preserve” the purchasing power of their McKinleys, Washingtons and Lincolns. The Gold Eagles had to take care of themselves. The results are in; the unprotected Gold Eagles flourished, while the “protected” Mckinleys withered. Based on its metal content, a 1914 $10 Indian Head Gold Eagle is worth $643.45. A 1914 $10 bill is still worth ten dollars.
The banks own and control the Federal Reserve, the Congress cannot even audit it, let alone set the course of monetary policies.
ReplyDeleteWe're all along for the ride.
Learn it, Live it, Love it.
The Magnificent growth of the 20th Century was fueled by cheap oil. That cheap oil has gone away. We Must find a substitute.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, an unholy alliance of powerful oil interests, and econazis are working feverishly to destroy our one mitigating technology.
If the big oil companies, through their sponsored legislators, Inhofe, and Coburn, are allowed to kill Ethanol we are in very,, very serious trouble.
We need the jobs that would come from building, and operating 3,000 cellulosic ethanol refineries, and we desperately need the affordable fuel that would flow from them.
MSNBC is reporting that if all the tax cheats paid their fair share, the deficit would disappear.
ReplyDeleteThe IRS is going after them, you betcha.
Meanwhile the US Senate confirmed Tim Geithner, as US Treasury Secretary, despite the New York Fed chief's failure to pay $34000 in taxes.
Guess he'd know how to catch the cheats, takes one to catch one, they say.
Deuce, QE2 will be followed by QE3.
ReplyDeleteCount on it, though it may have a different moniker.
Front month for wholesale, unleaded is $3.25 as we speak. Add $0.70 for trans/taxes, etc, and we're at $3.95 Gasoline at the pump. Coming to a corner near you, shortly.
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing more, and more big-time "Hitters" coming on the tube saying we'll be in recession by December.
ReplyDeleteGee, where have I heard that before?
The recession, rufus, will then be laid on the doorstep of the historic and massive Republican cuts in Federal spending.
ReplyDeleteEasy to see that storyline comin'
Sure as shootin'.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans will have killed the recovery, just as the liberals fore warned.
ReplyDeleteJohn Q Public will believe it.
What will Mitt Romney have to refute the charge?
ReplyDeleteCertainly not the mass media.
Yep.
ReplyDeleteOf course, to some extent they will be right (about the only thing that actually got cut was money for Cellulosic Ethanol.)
I think that if you aim at self sufficiency you will be ok. We are into the fourth generation now and we will be ok. Not rich, not poor, right in the middle of the muddle, what happens in the cities is of little concern to us. I almost think it's not my problem but I will continue to grow stuff for them. I feel for the people in the great cities. Their average day don't amount to squat, does it?
ReplyDeletedwr
We're okay, though. Saudi Arabia is going to step in and save us any minute now.
ReplyDeleteAny minute.
Any minute.
Do you see'em, yet? Are they coming?
ReplyDeleteThe Rich, the "investor class" lose sight of the fact that their wealth is largely derived from hundreds of millions of poor, and lower-middle class people trudging down to the store, and buying their wares.
ReplyDeleteWhen those hundreds of millions of poor have to send their money to Saudi Arabia, instead, the shareholder of Target is going to become considerably "less rich."
The "Rich" really want to believe that Saudi Arabia has 3 Million barrels (or 5 million barrels, or make up your own number) of Spare Capacity. They Really, Really WANT to believe it.
ReplyDeleteTheir whole privileged life seems to Depend on it.
They're ignoring the obvious.
ReplyDeleteThe Bushies really, really wanted to believe "Curveball."
ReplyDeleteHow did that work out?
To Allen--
ReplyDeleteYou have denied your own God.
One of your strictures is if you slander a person you have killed him/her, and that's a no no.
Here is a list of those here you have slandered:
TRISH
MISS T
MELODY
RUFUS
RAT (excusable)
QUIRK
YOURS TRULY
THE MANAGEMENT
THE BAR AS A WHOLE
ASH
AND ETC
MELODY made a great comment. If those here are all so lower than your sweet perfect self, why always the coming back.
dwr
And I liked Allen, once.
ReplyDeletedwr
Then you were a moron.
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteThe "Rich" really want to believe that Saudi Arabia has 3 Million barrels (or 5 million barrels, or make up your own number) of Spare Capacity. They Really, Really WANT to believe it.
Their whole privileged life seems to Depend on it.
Ruf, at times when you get on these extended rants, you remind me of that homeless guy you often see crossing the street in big cities babbling incoherently and shaking his fist at the people parked for the stop light.
In the last day or so someone recommended a vacation. You need one.
.
Quirk, why don't you get off my ass.
ReplyDeleteEverything I've said would come to pass is coming to pass. If you don't like it, don't read it.
You've been wrong about oil, and Saudi Arabia, and you will, obviously, continue to be wrong. Some of us might, actually, want to try to understand what's happening to us.
BTW, Q, the latest estimates for 1st Quarter GDP are 1.5%, down from 4% in early January.
ReplyDeleteNow, which of these scenarios make sense to you?
1) Falling GDP is leading to Higher Gasoline Prices, or
2) Higher Gasoline Prices are contributing to falling GDP, or
3) The two are totally unconnected.
BTW, I WAS thinking of you when I typed the comment you remarked on. I gave EIA numbers that claimed SA did not increase "production," and you said you would rather take the word of the "financial times."
Maybe YOU need a vacation.
desert rat said...
ReplyDeleteWhile you support the TSA goons groping the girl.
Thu Apr 14, 04:01:00 AM EDT
desert rat said...
Your entire EB existence is just a fictional fabrication. The story, once told cannot be withdrawn.
It is to be used for our entertainment.
As far as I am concerned.
Thu Apr 14, 04:05:00 AM EDT
allen said...
... "molesting" children for their own good and for the good of the Fatherland ...
... a Louisville Slugger once to each knee ...
Thu Apr 14, 09:11:00 AM EDT
Deuce said...
At a minimum, the child is being desentitized to an adult groping her, setting her up for something worse, but what kind of goose-stepping uniformed federal frau-thug would follow such an order.
I would not have let her touch any child of mine. I am bewildered that the parents did allow it, maybe they were in shock.
Thu Apr 14, 12:16:00 PM EDT
Deuce, Your envy of Black folks is pathological...I still respect whites even though they never created iconic leaders like Mandela, MLK, and others..
ReplyDeleteDespite the legacy of centuries of inhumanity here in America and surviving one of the two domestic holocuasts here in America we have been able to give America civil rights, inventions, creativity and now a Black president to take us into the next century..
I do understand yor nasty envious comments...But get over it..
Deuce said...
ReplyDeleteAt a minimum, the child is being desentitized to an adult groping her, setting her up for something worse, but what kind of goose-stepping uniformed federal frau-thug would follow such an order.
I would not have let her touch any child of mine. I am bewildered that the parents did allow it, maybe they were in shock.
Thu Apr 14, 12:16:00 PM EDT
allen said...
The Nazis and Communists learned early on that a monster who behaves outrageously leaves his victims in shock.
Because the educational and social fabrics of the United States have been decaying for decades, most of the monsters think they are righteous. Once one is able to see other human beings as just so much jelly in a Petri dish, mere abuse is no problem at all. They, and the country, will only be disabused of these horrific fallicies by the application of terrifying counterforce. Count on it.
Dante's Prayer
Thu Apr 14, 12:48:00 PM EDT
.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I WAS thinking of you when I typed the comment you remarked on.
I realize that Ruf. As were other insightful and inciteful comments such as
BTW, Q, I heard the Sauds said they were going to tap that {snicker} spare capacity {snicker} "any day now." :) NOT. :)
Where to begin in response to your last post.
First, you ask a question that has an obvious answer. Of course higher oil prices affect GDP. But what does that have to do with your ludicrous assertions that led to my post?
With regard to the EIA numbers, what makes you believe the numbers pulled together by their analysts are any better than the analysts used in the FT, Rueters, and some tv station's stories. You rail about government numbers until they justify your meme.
On that subject, lets go back to the snicker comment above and what it led to.
T posted,
Look at this chart.
Rufus will still say "peak oil" however.
To which you responded "This might be one of those cases where you have to be very careful assigning "causation." There ARE several "macro-"trends working right now.
To which I replied with a smiley face and you responded with "Q, that was a Very short-term chart."
You missed the point of the smiley face, although I have to say that the chart did cover the last two years, the period when commodity prices escalated along with the burgeoning U.S. debt.
However, what I was actually smiling about was you cautioning that there are a number of factors driving commodity prices, something T and I have been arguing in response to your contention that high oil prices are driven solely by peak oil.
You are fixated and obsessed with oil and ethanol. You have been since the Kudlow days.
Now in a series of posts you have conflated all the things you don't like, 'the rich', the lack of progress of cellulose ethanol, the oil companies and blamed it all on peak oil, ignoring the fact that there are a number of 'macro-trends' in play right now.
.
.
ReplyDeleteBlogger doesn't like my response to Rufus so I will have to break it down into a couple separate posts.
BTW, I WAS thinking of you when I typed the comment you remarked on.
I realize that Ruf. As were other insightful and inciteful comments such as
BTW, Q, I heard the Sauds said they were going to tap that {snicker} spare capacity {snicker} "any day now." :) NOT. :)
Where to begin in response to your last post.
First, you ask a question that has an obvious answer. Of course higher oil prices affect GDP. But what does that have to do with your ludicrous assertions that led to my post?
With regard to the EIA numbers, what makes you believe the numbers pulled together by their analysts are any better than the analysts used in the FT, Rueters, and some tv station's stories. You rail about government numbers until they justify your meme.
(continued)
.
.
ReplyDelete(continued)
On the theme noted above, let's go back to the snicker comment above and what it led to.
T posted,
Look at this chart.
Rufus will still say "peak oil" however.
To which you responded "This might be one of those cases where you have to be very careful assigning "causation." There ARE several "macro-"trends working right now.
To which I replied with a smiley face and you responded with "Q, that was a Very short-term chart."
You missed the point of the smiley face, although I have to say that the chart did cover the last two years, the period when commodity prices escalated along with the burgeoning U.S. debt.
However, what I was actually smiling about was you cautioning that there are a number of factors driving commodity prices, something T and I have been arguing in response to your contention that high oil prices are driven solely by peak oil.
You are fixated and obsessed with oil and ethanol. You have been since the Kudlow days.
Now in a series of posts you have conflated all the things you don't like, 'the rich', the lack of progress of cellulose ethanol, the oil companies and blamed it all on peak oil, ignoring the fact that there are a number of 'macro-trends' in play right now.
.
Yes, Q, but did you not notice that the CRB Index headed up in earnest a good four months Before the Fed Purchases got started in Sept?
ReplyDeleteAm I obsessed with peak oil, Quirk, or are you obsessed with me being wrong?
ReplyDeleteGood Lord, Quirk, Why would I hate the rich?!?! You're not making any sense at all.
I want you to stop and look at what you just typed. You questioned whether the EIA Global Oil Production Numbers would be as good as those of a newspaper, or a wire service.
.
ReplyDeleteWith regard to your assumptions that the Saudi's should be blamed for not "helping" us. Once again, I assume this is because of your fixation on production numbers (which fit your meme) rather than on demand numbers which have been down due to the recent recession.
The Saudis and Iran and most of the oil producing states indicate that current supply meets the damand that is out there. You deny this. Fine.
However, the FT, Rueters and others have used analyst estimates in stories that indicate SA was producing higher volumes 9.5 or 9.6 mbpd earlier as I recall, and that they are now lowering that towards their OPEC target which I heard was somewhere around 8.6 mbpd.
I could care less since I don't think the current high oil prices are the result of an actual supply shortages but rather the other 'macro trends' T and I have raised.
You on the other hand feel the need to snicker because the EIA 'analysts' say that SA production has been constant at 9.1 mbpd for the last three months. However, even if the EIA numbers were correct wouldn't it point out that SA has been 'helping' us by producing above their OPEC target?
.
And, my assertion that people want to believe what makes them feel good is "ludicrous?" Really?
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteAm I obsessed with peak oil, Quirk, or are you obsessed with me being wrong?
I am not obsessed with you being wrong. In fact, I think you are probably right in the long term.
What bothers me is the extent to which you will takes short term (i.e. a year or two disruptions in the market that could very well be caused by multiple other factors) and equate them as proof of your hypothesis.
.
Pleasel. Stop it.
ReplyDeleteI NEVER said, "The Saudis should be blamed for not producing more."
I simply said, "They Can't produce much more."
I, also, stated that the Saudis lie like dogs.
If Demand is down, why is China paying $129.64/bbl for Tapis, and why are we paying $125.37 for Louisiana Sweet?
.
ReplyDeleteGood Lord, Quirk, Why would I hate the rich?!?! You're not making any sense at all.
Sorry if I misread your intent. But let's face it you have(as have I) been knocking the 'rich' for not paying their share of taxes.
Likewise, why single out the rich as wanting to believe that SA has the capacity they say they have. Doesn't it affect everyone? Shouldn't everyone be concerned?
.
.
ReplyDeleteIf Demand is down, why is China paying $129.64/bbl for Tapis, and why are we paying $125.37 for Louisiana Sweet?
Please stop it.
We have been trough this a dozen times before. I've given you the reasons I think oil prices are up right now. You just don't buy my reasons just as I don't buy your fixation on there being only one reason.
.
No, Q, we talk about short-term stuff here all day, every day. You're just irritated that this argument is not going your way. in fact, you're getting creamed.
ReplyDelete"Short term?" "One or two years?"
One or two years is a Lifetime, right now. When you're falling off a cliff you don't say, "oops, this looks like a short-term blip on what might be a long term problem; let's don't think about it."
You start grabbing for stuff, right now, as fast as you can. And, THAT is where I think we are.
I want you to stop and look at what you just typed. You questioned whether the EIA Global Oil Production Numbers would be as good as those of a newspaper, or a wire service.
ReplyDeleteThe newspaper stories quoted ME oil analysts. What makes you think that the analysts at the EIA are any better than the analysts used by these news organizations.
The fact is nobody is certain what SA actual production numbers are except the Saudis and they are not talking.
.
Again, Quit it. I don't "Knock" the rich for not paying more taxes.
ReplyDeleteI simply say that "They will have to pay more taxes."
And, they will. You can't run this railroad without the rich paying more.
Because, Q, it's the rich that have the most invested in the status quo. It's the rich that ownb the Exxon stock.
This ain't "personal," Bubba. This is Bizness.
One or two years is a Lifetime, right now.
ReplyDeleteI've seen this since the days of Kudlow.
When it happens, I'll give you kudos. In the meantime, I'll roll with it.
$4 gallon gas?
The EU has been paying double what we have been paying for decades.
.
It's the rich that ownb the Exxon stock.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I own Exxon stock and I am not rich.
.
Q, the EIA has hundreds of bureaucrats that do nothing BUT track oil production, storage, shipping, consumption, etc.
ReplyDeleteThey can track the actual shipments from Saudi Ports to the Ports of Receiving countries. They have the manpower to pore through Import Tariff numbers of those assorted countries.
Sure, they get stuff wrong, and are constantly revising, and their predictions (long term) tend to have been a bit optimistic in the past, but they're the best we have.
They're at least a 2:1 favorite over the IEA, and 20:1 over anyone else.
I added another video from the Brain Trust of the Democratic Black Caucus. It is all about vision. Vision fool, it is all about vision. Vision and staying in the game. Straighten it up and do the right thing.You can sit there and be as ignorant as you want to be, but you need vision.
ReplyDeleteYes, and I predicted the last recession, you and Kudlow didn't.
ReplyDeleteAnd, I'm predicting the next one starts in the 4th Q of this year (if not sooner,) and you and Kudlow aren't.
And, after I'm right, you'll dislike me, and my predictions, even more than you do now.
Because, that's the nature of the human animal.
And, I'll brag to my kids; but they won't be the least bit interested either. Nor will my wife.
Deuce will find it mildly interesting.
Rat knows it, already (and, could really give the proverbial "rat's-ass" :) I think.)
Whit's starting to catch on.
T's in the same boat as you. She kinda knows it; but fights it all she can.
For Bobalharb of Idaho:
ReplyDeleteHeaven (Rupert Brooke)
Fish (fly-replete, in depth of June,
Dawdling away their wat'ry noon)
Ponder deep wisdom, dark or clear,
Each secret fishy hope or fear.
Fish say, they have their Stream and Pond;
But is there anything Beyond?
This life cannot be All, they swear,
For how unpleasant, if it were!
One may not doubt that, somehow, Good
Shall come of Water and of Mud;
And, sure, the reverent eye must see
A Purpose in Liquidity.
We darkly know, by Faith we cry,
The future is not Wholly Dry.
Mud unto mud! -- Death eddies near --
Not here the appointed End, not here!
But somewhere, beyond Space and Time.
Is wetter water, slimier slime!
And there (they trust) there swimmeth One
Who swam ere rivers were begun,
Immense, of fishy form and mind,
Squamous, omnipotent, and kind;
And under that Almighty Fin,
The littlest fish may enter in.
Oh! never fly conceals a hook,
Fish say, in the Eternal Brook,
But more than mundane weeds are there,
And mud, celestially fair;
Fat caterpillars drift around,
And Paradisal grubs are found;
Unfading moths, immortal flies,
And the worm that never dies.
And in that Heaven of all their wish,
There shall be no more land, say fish.
Oil prices are up simply because they are moving up, and hedge funds are riding the bubble.
ReplyDeleteAlready economic counterforces are waiting in the wings. Americans cannot long abide gas prices in the $4's.
"US Jobless Claims Jump 27,000"
In addition, rising gas prices throughout the country could take a toll the state economy and industries such as retail and leisure and hospitality as people adjust their spending habits, Wallace said.
"You're going to see more money going toward (gas) and less money going toward discretionary expenditures," he said. "You're going to see fewer purchases, fewer trips away from home."
The Euros pay double, but that's from higher taxes.
.
ReplyDeleteAnd, I'm predicting the next one starts in the 4th Q of this year (if not sooner,) and you and Kudlow aren't.
And, after I'm right, you'll dislike me, and my predictions, even more than you do now.
Half the analysts on CNBC are predicting a fall back into recession this year. Many see commodity prices and especially that of oil as a major driver. They also see many reasons for oil prices going up besides peak oil.
If you are right I won't like it. But dislike you? Why should I? We have a difference of opinion. Nothing personal.
As far as predicting recessions, you're right I don't. I just adapt to them.
.
"Vision and investment"...those are the answers.
ReplyDeleteRestructuring the tax code.
Getting rid of taxbreaks for the very rich.
Closing loopholes for the big companies.
Tax companies that are "getting offshore and stealing jobs away from here for cheap labor."
___________________________________
Sounds like the old "tax and spend" Democrats to me.
Could it be that, despite reduced demand, the price of oil has risen because the dollar is worth less?
ReplyDeleteAlso, the price of oil is essentially set these days by speculators more so than the spot price.
Okay, look, if the Dollar has weakened 20% since the bottom of the recession, how could that cause a $300% Increase in the price of a barrel of Oil?
ReplyDeleteIt Can't.
The Spot price is where the actual Buyers, and Sellers of the Product meet to transact business. The futures market, and speculators, can definitely affect the spot price (up to about 10%, maybe,) but they are in no way the primary driving force.
ReplyDeleteThink about it; we're talking about, basically, a $4 Trillion/yr Business.
Let's say you are Valero. You own a half dozen refineries, and all you do is buy oil, refine it, and sell products (gasoline, diesel, etc.)
ReplyDeleteNow you see this speculative bubble developing. You're thinking, "shit, I'm going to buy this super-high priced oil, and then about the time I get it refined, and ready to sell the products the market's going to pop; and I'll lose my keester.
So, you use some of your 30 million gallon inventory, and prepare to take a couple of refineries down for "maintenance."
You politely tell the sellers, "sorry, guys, but we just can't play this game."
And, Those are the Real players. Conoco, Valero, Exxon, Shell, they're not going go tits-up just so Goldman, or Morgan Stanley can make a a quick killing.
BTW, Morgan, and Goldman know that, of course. They also know that when Valero, and Conoco quit buying the "spec" game comes to a violent end, and they lose "their" keesters.
It's "nervous" money. 10% is probably the Max that it could do.
Don't get your "Energy" news from Bill O'Reilly.
.
ReplyDeleteOkay, look, if the Dollar has weakened 20% since the bottom of the recession, how could that cause a $300% Increase in the price of a barrel of Oil?
You're saying the price of Brent crude at the bottom of the recession was around $30 or $31 per barrel?
.
.
ReplyDeleteIt's "nervous" money. 10% is probably the Max that it could do.
From Goldman Sachs' buy call on commodities and oil in December, oil prices rose 25%-33% depending on whose number you believe.
A few days ago GS warned clients of a steep reversal in oil futures. The price dropped about $6 in a couple days and is down 3% over that couple day period.
According to GS the current speculative premium on oil is around 20%.
.
It got down to $37.00.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the closer to China you were the less effect the Goldman call had. Tapis Crude (Singapore) is down about 1.5% - $132.00 to $130.00
ReplyDeleteAs for the upward move after the first Goldman call: IIRC, about the same time, in fact, prior to that, I was saying that the "floating storage" was just about gone, and that prices would probably be moving up fairly briskly from there."
In other words, they saw the parade coming, and jumped out in front of it.
Oh God, this is hilarious.
ReplyDeletePlease watch this Nozzlerage
We darkly know, by Faith we cry,
ReplyDeleteThe future is not Wholly Dry.
What the hell do you expect of fish?
Perception is based on the perceptual apparatus of the perceiver.
I've always liked that little poem, but Whitman is so much much better.
dwr
Let's all face it, Brooke isn't a major poet, just entertaining is all.
ReplyDeleteLike in some tea party with the women, where they don't come to grasp.
ReplyDeleteI'll take a pickup truck, shotgun, and ripping woman, then you are getting somewhere, the fisherman not the fish.
dwr
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteDeuce, Your envy of Black folks is pathological...I still respect whites even though they never created iconic leaders like Mandela, MLK, and others..
Despite the legacy of centuries of inhumanity here in America and surviving one of the two domestic holocuasts here in America we have been able to give America civil rights, inventions, creativity and now a Black president to take us into the next century..
You are kidding Aren't you? The last time I checked Nelson Mandela was not an American. If there was a holocaust for black people it happened in Africa where your choice of people, the ones you identify with, the black poeple routinely killed each other and those that you did not kill, you enslaved and sold them to the highest bidder.
Celebrate your blackness all you like, but be grateful that white people don't celebrate their whiteness, and be clear about who enslaved your ancestors, your brothers, black ones.
caste off so discourteously
ReplyDeleteGovernment indebtedness:
ReplyDeleteBest off - Germany
Worse off - Ireland
Making matters worse has been rising fuel prices, which go into fertilisers and energy.
ReplyDelete...
“We are now working with the Food and Agriculture Organisation on responsible principles for food investment – this has included sub-Saharan Africa, also some in central Asia – the idea that investment can be helpful and create additional food production, but one needs to do it in a way that helps the local people and meets local needs.”
The World Bank is investing $7bn in improving agricultural production, from seeds to irrigation to sewage. One key area of research is in developing better seeds.
'Danger Zone'
It's not ALL bad news.
ReplyDeleteAbengoa finally ready to start construction on their Cellulosic Ethanol Plant in Hugoton, Ks
This (the trend starting up, not this individual plant) is why the Republicans have stepped up their all-out assault on the Renewable Fuels Standard.
There were some voices at the conference who laid out new directions for economics. Ken Rogoff urged economists to collaborate more with historians and the messy reality they try to explain.
ReplyDelete...
Three days at a Bretton Woods hotel did not remake the world. And, despite some Tea Party fears, it was never going to.
But forcing the economics profession to questions key assumptions about human behaviour has to be encouraged. One of the strongest lessons of the crisis is that an unquestioning consensus is never right for all that long.
Economic Thinking
"Excessive volatility in commodity prices, particularly those for food and energy, poses new risks for the ongoing recovery of the world economy,"
ReplyDeleteThe biggest danger to the world economy is, and always has been, the stupidity, and greed of Bankers.
ReplyDeleteThere's no cure for it; you can't get around it, and many (most?) times you can't survive it.
We have a new danger, now - the Peaking of the Oil Flow.
It's a serious danger, and must be addressed quickly. The good news, however, is that, unlike the banker problem, there Are mitigaions for Peak Oil.
A fully loaded Russian IL-76 cargo plane... payload 1 million pounds! This really raises the pucker factor...
ReplyDeleteListen to the "controllers" in the tower who are Australian: Ya gotta love it.
"The Vodka Burner" as the Aussies call it, literally uses every inch of runway.
WATCH THE WHOLE VIDEO.. (shot from the tower)
You can HEAR THE CONVERSATION IN THE TOWER. They are incredulous that it makes it.
IL-76 In Australia
Jeebus.
ReplyDeleteIf that had been me there would have been one drunk pilot landing that plane in Moscow.
ReplyDeleteWhy does the Post keep sticking with 38.5?
ReplyDeleteAhead of the final vote, the Senate also rejected measures that would have defunded the national health-care law and Planned Parenthood; the two Senate votes had been agreed to as part of the budget deal.
ReplyDeleteBoehner, weak as piss.
dude #1 - How was your trip to the states?
ReplyDeletedude #2 - Those americans are a weird bunch. I went to Wal-Mart and saw they had Obama Christmas tree ornaments.
#1 - Suddenly it's ok to hang a black man from a tree again?
The International Solidarity Movement had identified the kidnapped activist as Vittorio Arrigoni, 36, from Italy. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because no announcement was made.
ReplyDelete...
ISM operates in the West Bank and Gaza and is known for trying to prevent the Israeli military from carrying out its missions. Arraf said this activist has been going in and out of Gaza for more than two years.
He was working with farmers and fishermen.
Activist Found
An activist in Gaza demonstrating in support of Gazans is kidnapped and murdered by Gazans.
ReplyDeleteDo I have that right?
Jeez, while our economy was, maybe, growing one, and a half percent China 1st Q Growth is 9.7%.
ReplyDeleteConsumer spending up about 17% YOY.
Holy Moley
Jacob Lew, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said on Thursday that all parties believed it would be "unthinkable" for the US not to meet its debt obligations.
ReplyDeleteThe 2011 budget bill passed by Congress, which covers the fiscal year up to 30 September, slashes some domestic spending but also relies on accounting changes that some economists say create the illusion of deeper spending cuts.
...
Mr Obama said all Americans must share the burden of reducing the long-term budget deficit.
"It's not appropriate for us to ask for sacrifices from everybody except for the 2% of Americans who are doing best," he said.
Budget Cut Bill
Bob,
ReplyDeleteI thought you might want to know that I received an invoice for an appraisal on another case involving a home and acreage and the appraiser charged $2500. So, I think that Terry’s appraisal of your parkland at $5,000 is beyond reasonable. I truly question the $7500 that he charged. I’m not an appraiser and I know that there are different valuations involved, but I do believe you should stick to your guns with the $5000 unless there is evidence that the industry supports the $7500.
Having said that – I did send out the letter today – so we’ll see what happens.
Susan
My lady lawyer at work what I don't know is wheather this would be big claims court or small claims court but old Terry is pushing me here he has a bomb shelter in his basement and his last girlfriend killed herself it's just business as usual here.
dwr
On the other hand, there is no doubt that Exports are Surging.
ReplyDeleteOutbound Containers up 19.2% YOY.
Pretty strong.
I'm a really really really good citizen.!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe appraisal was over $400,000 that I gave - that is to say, was extorted from me - for that damned parkland.
No one can call Bob anything other than a stellar citizen!!!!
dwr
Calls to arm Libya's rebels and ramp up the bombing raids on Gaddafi forces have put the Obama administration on the defensive, after the US scaled back its role in the military campaign last week.
ReplyDeleteWashington left open the option of arming the rebels, and said that after handing over to NATO last week, US warplanes continued to attack Libyan defences.
At a meeting in Doha on Wednesday, the international contact group on Libya - comprising 20 countries, NATO, the UN and the African Union - moved to give cash to the rebels through a "temporary financial mechanism".
Removing Gaddafi
You try dealing with all these motherfuckers Terry did me a good appraisal but is ripping me or trying to the city ripped me no way out of that they are all a bunch of suckers on Bob's money but Susan has my back best as she can good on some of these young wimmin lawyers she is a fighter.
ReplyDeletedwr
I just post that stuff cause real business in a little different than most realize.
ReplyDeletedwr
allen said...
ReplyDeletecaste off so discourteously
Thu Apr 14, 08:29:00 PM EDT
...too close for comfort for publication? ... note you guys can now hide interference ... The President would be proud.