No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini
The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor in Cernobbio, Italy
Published: 9:49AM BST 05 Sep 2010
Telegraph
“The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como.
“More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency problems,” he told Europe’s policy elite.
Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system.
The anaemic pace compares with rates of 4pc-6pc at this stage of recovery in normal post-war recoveries.
“We have reached stall speed. Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession. With interbank spreads rising, you can get a vicious circle like 2008-2009,” he said, describing a self-feeding process as the real economy and the credit system hurt each other.
“There is a 40pc chance of double-dip recession in the US, and worse in Japan. Even if it is not technically a recession it will feel like it,” he added.
Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany’s IFO Institute, said the US would have to purge its debt excesses the hard way.
“The bitter truth is that there is no way out of this with monetary and fiscal policy. They will just have to see their living standards go down. I see a decade of difficulties for the US,” he said.
Dr Sinn said the US the market for mortgage securities (CDOs) had collapsed from $1.9 trillion in 2006 to just $50bn last year, leaving the US property market reliant on federal agencies.
“The world is simply not willing to buy these dubious financial products again. Germany is leaving, China is no longer there, and Japan is pulling away. The US system of mortgage finance is on government life support and that cannot drive a sustainable upswing,” he said.
Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson said the US has exhausted fiscal stimulus given warnings from the Congressional Budget Office that interest payments as a share of tax revenues will reach 20pc by 2020 and 36pc by 2030 without drastic retrenchment.
“The fiscal crisis seems to be out of control. The 'big crossover’ is approaching when the US spends more on debt service costs than on security, and historically that is the tipping point for any global power,” he said.
Mr Ferguson said the “Chimerica” marriage of recent years is on the rocks. China is no longer willing to fund the US Treasury bond market, cutting its share of holdings from 13pc to 10pc of the total debt stock.
While China must find ways to recycle its trade surplus and hold down the yuan, it is doing this by stockpiling commodities, buying hard assets around the world, or rotating into Asian bonds.
Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.
The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.
Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.
In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.
“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.
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Pouring more reserves into the banks so that they can warehouse failed commercial properties and repossessed housing will not accomplish anything.
ReplyDeleteSavers are being punished wish ultra low interest rates and borrowers are reluctant to borrow to expand in a falling market.
At an early stage, I and others thought that if all residential mortgages were dropped to 4% (no exclusions), that would stimulate the economy and slow or stop the falling prices in housing. That rate would have to be something south of 3% at this time.
There is another problem and that is unique to this recession and that is the huge pool of consumers being crushed by the troika of credit scoring.
If you assume that 16.5% is the real rate of unemployment and underemployment and add to that another 15% that are just barely making it, you have a reasonable estimate of 25-30% of the US working population having impaired credit scores.
Those consumers are essential locked out of a significant part of the economy with little prospect of ever getting back in. They are controlled by an oligopoly of three credit agencies that dictate:
Whether these financially impaired people can buy a car or an appliance on other than usurious credit rates, buy a home or rent an apartment, work for various companies and get certain jobs. These same people will pay more for insurance.
It is not relevant whether these people deserve to be in this state, the fact is they are. The net affect is the same, the credit system has taxed them out of the market. The government has thrown money at the banks, lowered interest rates and has provided credit back-up guarantees to the same banks allowing them to pay close to nothing for their government subsidies. These same banks have jacked up interest rates on credit cards to 30% interest.
I have a friend who has never been late on a payment in her life. She has a credit score of 720 and has been employed without a break for 30 years. Citibank just raised her rate to 30% and two of her retail cards were terminated.
Perhaps this process should be rethought.
Your friend has to pay off those cards. There's a season for everything. This is the season for paying off credit cards.
ReplyDeleteTurn, Turn, Turn
Everybody's talkin (at me)
ReplyDeleteRoubini says, "it may not 'Technically' be a recession, but it'll feel like one."
ReplyDeleteWell, hell, we've been saying that for two years.
Two basic facts will tell you most of what you need to know about the political picture today.
ReplyDeleteFact One: The unemployment rate is the most important of all leading political indicators.
Fact Two: If the August unemployment number to be announced Friday tops 9%—which seems highly likely—the jobless rate will have been above that level for 16 straight months. Already, the U.S. is mired in the longest such stretch of 9%-plus joblessness in more than a quarter of a century.
Jerry Seib discusses what has happened to the American job creation machine.
There is little mystery, then, about why Democrats are in trouble. The party in power is inevitably blamed for so much bad news on the one economic subject that most concerns average Americans.
Yet the political debate on this point, which focuses on what can be done to get Americans back to work right now, is missing a deeper and more troubling reality: The American economy hasn't been a very robust jobs-producer for quite a while. That's the broader question that needs to be discussed, even as we work on the immediate problem.
{...}
Indeed, it has been perhaps four decades since America's economy has been the kind of roaring jobs machine that average Americans, aspiring politicians and ambitious business leaders all would like to see. Consider a few historical unemployment-rate numbers—one way to gauge the economy's performance on the jobs front.
ReplyDeleteBetween 1966 and 1970, the U.S. experienced a phenomenal stretch of 48 straight months in which the unemployment rate was at or below 4%—that is to say, a stretch of four straight years when the rate was less than half of what it has been for the past year.
In the three decades since 1970, the rate has fallen below 4% for exactly four months, in the final months of 2000.
Instead, the norm has become unemployment rates in the 5%-to-7% range. When the recession of 1981 hit, the unemployment rate stood at 7.2%. It began to rise, and it took three full years before it was brought back down to that level once again—a depressing thought about how stubbornly high the rate may be as a result of the recession the U.S. is now exiting. During that stretch, the rate was at or above 9% for 19 straight months at one point.
The last two years of the 1990s were a period of consistently low unemployment, ranging between 4% and 5%. After that, job growth was only sluggish to moderate for most of this decade, even before the recession hit at the end of 2007.
{...}
I especially agree with this:
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to pull out of the current jobs rut, of course. But it would be nicer still to figure out what combination of public policies and private initiatives would help the national jobs machine rev up to a higher, sustained level.
"It's an economy that hasn't been growing fast enough for a long time," says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist who advised Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign.
The debate over short-term fixes is familiar by now: Is stimulus spending helpful or not? Are tax cuts better than sending aid to the states? Is it better to spend federal dollars to juice the economy or to attack the deficit?
But solutions to long-term job lethargy are equally important.
There are plenty of ideas. Liberal economist Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, for example, says the key is attacking America's long-term trade imbalance. That requires expanding manufacturing, which, in turn, argues for pushing the value of the dollar down to make American exports cheaper. That isn't politically easy, because driving down the dollar also would drive up the cost of all those imports Americans love. Mr. Baker argues that it's a long-term job creator.
The more conservative Mr. Holtz-Eakin suggests a three-pronged attack. First, he would stop using the tax system to achieve social goals and change it to focus, almost obsessively, on fostering economic growth. Second, he would liberate corporations to devote more capital to jobs by curbing the use of them as "vessels for social benefits" such as health insurance, which would be provided in other ways. And third, he would radically improve the American education system, which is "failing to a remarkable degree in delivering to the labor force people with the skills needed to compete."
ReplyDeleteCentrist Democrat Robert Shapiro, chairman of the economic advisory firm Sonecon, says the job-creation problem arises because a globalized economy has brought an explosion of competition for American firms, limiting their ability to raise prices precisely when their fixed costs have started soaring in the areas of health, energy and pensions.
"This is a deep structural problem," Mr. Shapiro says. Its solution, he says, lies in public policies to help the private sector address those three big cost drivers.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
Look, if you're going to live better than the rest of the world you're going to have to outproduce them, or, eventually, kick their ass.
ReplyDeleteNukes make that second optin a pretty nasty choice.
Unfortunately, we're blowing all of our R&D Money on Foreign Oil, and Wars for Foreign Oil.
All the while, the Established Elites are peeing on our legs, and cooing in our ears about "how warm is the rain."
What did the man say, "You go bankrupt, slowly, and then all at once?"
ouis McFadden
ReplyDelete(1876-1936) US Congressman (R-PA) (1915-1935), Chairman of House Banking and Currency Committee. Poisoned in 1936.
Source: quoted in the New York Times (June 1930)
"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is eager to enter into close relationship with the Bank for International Settlements.... The conclusion is impossible to escape that the State and Treasury Departments are willing to pool the banking system of Europe and America, setting up a world financial power independent of and above the Government of the United States....
The United States under present conditions will be transformed from the most active of manufacturing nations into a consuming and importing nation with a balance of trade against it."
Consumers are saddled with high interest rate debt.
ReplyDeleteSavers, as Deuce said, get virtually no return on their money.
Small banks (the traditional lenders) are undercapitalized with inadequate reserves.
Wall Street Banks (traditionally brokerage houses) are sitting on $1 trillion in reserves but are trying to hide a potentially $6 trillion derivative liability.
-----------------------------------
This will take decades to unwind.
as j. willie wrote (quoted?) a week or two ago - 'a credit fueled expansion takes a long time to correct and/or the correction is very painful' (a very weak paraphrase but at essence that is what is happening).
ReplyDeleteOne sector of our economy is outperforming the world. Our Ag sector is the most Efficient in the world. The Agriculture part of our economy will have a Trade Surplus of $30Billion with total Exports of $107 Billion this year.
ReplyDeleteThe debt slaves will need a 21st century underground railroad.
ReplyDeleteIf you're paying 30% interest you will, eventually, have to look in the mirror, and have a "Come to Jesus" moment.
ReplyDeleteWe're still seeing just the top of the consumer default iceberg.
ReplyDeleteAs we "bump along the bottom", and the current conditions persist, more and more consumers will opt out of the credit system. A few will do so by paying off debt, more and more will simply quit paying.
rufus quotes torah.
ReplyDeleteTo every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, a time to reap that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
Yep those Jews come up again...
What did the man say, "You go bankrupt, slowly, and then all at once?"
ReplyDeleteThat was Ernie Hemingway, I always thought that was good.
Also, "People dyin' today that never died before."
Which is kinda cold, unfeeling and cynical, when you think about it, and not so good.
A good writer, who was conflicted, and made a hell of a mess out of what passed for his domestic life.
Like Churchill, he got more out of booze than booze got out of him, at least until the last.
Quirk is evidently headed to Idaho to mellow out, and do some thinking. Try to get his head straight. He's been doing some hallucinating.
ReplyDeleteAs if I didn't have enough on my plate, enough people to herd around, and watch out for, lest they harm themselves, get lost in the forest, go floating on a dangeros river like a fool. No lifejacket either. We get them all the time, refugees from the big cities. Urban blighters, we call 'em.
That should read--"try to do some thinking."
ReplyDeleteHe's going to find horoscopes are of little use, out here.
This will take decades to unwind.
ReplyDeleteMay not take decades but it will take a long time and when it does it won't be because of anything D.C. does for us.
The government, the banks, Wall Street, the Fed, and our own profligate habits combined to produce the mess we're in right now and only time will fix it.
The government has used up all its bullets.
Both parties are pissing in the wind when they say they have a "plan".
Reminds me of the time I pulled a muscle in my back. I went to a chiropractor for the first and only time. He x-rayed me and then told me I had to back in three time a week for 6 weeks. I told him to stuff it.
Three or four weeks later I was feeling better without any treatment.
That's what it will take for the economy, time.
When we finally come out of this, both parties will claim that their policies where what helped and that the other party's policies were what inhibited the recovery, same as they do now for all past economic history.
.
I always liked that passage, WiO.
ReplyDeleteGot the laptop in the SUV heading west Bobbo.
ReplyDeleteWe are raising hell and looking for elk.
Will let you know when we are in the neighborhood.
.
Get an Idaho license plate the moment you cross the border or you'll be in somebody's crosshairs, is the first piece of advice. Turn around and go home, is the second. But if you insist to stay, you'll definitely need a guide. And I offer myself up, out of my weakness, compassion.
ReplyDeleteSigna...breaki...up.
ReplyDelete..c. yo.
Talk...y...ter.
.
Shit, he's in the Rockies, already.
ReplyDeleteDo
ReplyDeleteyou
have
a
G
P
S
?
Do
ReplyDeleteyou
have
matches
food
blankies
?
He's done gone silent. The first step to disaster.
ReplyDeleteNo GPS.
ReplyDeleteI got got a full tanks of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark and I'm wearing sunglasses.
.
Are you going uphill, or downhill?
ReplyDeleteDo you know your directions, like north south, east west?
Did - you - pass - a - big - city - called - M I S S O U L A?
ReplyDeleteAh well, I'm going back to bed, it's morning, Quirk'll be ok till sunset.
ReplyDeleteQuirk, it's dark because you're wearing sunglasses.
If you can hear me, take 'em off.
I don't even wear a watch.
ReplyDeleteI am one with the wind.
I go where it blows me.
I must go where the wild goose goes.
Tonight I heard the wild goose cry Wingin' north in the lonely sky
Tried to sleep, but it ain't no use
'Cause I am the brother to the old wild goose.
My heart knows what the wild goose knows
And I must go where the wild goose goes
Wild goose, brother goose, which is best-
A wanderin' foot or a heart at rest?
The cabin is warm and the snow is deep
And I got a woman, who lies asleep
When she wakes at tomorrow's dawn
She'll find, poor critter, that her man is gone.
My woman was kind and true to me
Thinks she loves me, the more fool she!
She's gotta learn that it ain't no use
To love the brother to the old wild goose.
Spring is comin' and the ice will break
And I can't linger, for a woman's sake
She'll see a shadow pass overhead
She'll find - a feather -'side my bed.
.
Oh, Lord, no.
ReplyDeleteOne of the timeless urban wanderers.
The worst kind we get.
I'm tempted to just leave him on his own.
But, O compassion....
Oh yea.
ReplyDeleteThat did make a difference.
Sunglasses.
Shit.
.
I must go where the wild goose goes.
ReplyDeleteThat would be to the huge wheat pile over at Stegner's Grain, in north Lewiston.
You can hang around, and shit with the others.
Curse you Bob, Farmer of Idaho.
ReplyDeleteI'll talk to you later.
.
Look at the section of the country that's doing well. The upper midwest. Unemployment rates running from 4.2% (N. Dakota,) to 6.6% (Iowa.)
ReplyDeleteThese States are Exporting Food, And "Energy."
In Florida, we would be putting out a Silver Alert for Quirk.
ReplyDeleteI doubt that his family is even aware that he is missing.
S. Dakota unemployment rate - 4.8%
ReplyDeleteNebraska unemployment rate - 4.6%
Minnesota unemployment rate - 7.2%
These are Not "low-tax" states. They are kind of "middle of the road" tax states. A couple vote predominantly Republican, a Couple, Predominently Democratic. Iowa is, usually, pretty much a toss-up.
They are all either energy-independent, or getting there pretty quickly.
It'd a hard rain that's gonna fall
ReplyDeleteDylan
I'm not sure Quirk knows he's missing. He thinks "Here I am, I'm alright" and feels safe as a lamb.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the guy on Coast to Coast last night, about Ron Paul's allegation there is no gold Fort Knox, the truth is, there is, it's just that most of it is already pledged to countries x, y, and z, and other private entities, and so couldn't be used to back up our currency. Not enough of it unencumbered. Least that the gist of it I got.
I have no idea what the truth of any of this might be.
Then I dozed off to dream my favorite dream.
Current Unemployment Rates for States
ReplyDeleteThink: Wind, and Ethanol.
Flirting with the Teens (updated)
ReplyDeleteRuss Vaughn
Do you suppose anyone in the White House or the state-controlled media organ has run the latest presidential approval numbers where the daily Rasmussen tracking poll has Obama's strongly approve rating at 24% to calculate what that actually means? Let's suppose that the polling sample represents the actual ethnic makeup of the country so that Blacks represent 12%-13% of the results. Then consider that if blacks respond in the Rasmussen poll in the same percentages the support Obama in most polls, that is the 90% range, that means that approximately 2.7% of that 24% is represented by his most supportive core constituency.
So what, you say? Well, that means that Mr. Hopenchange is now as regards the rest of the poll sampling, flirting with a strongly approve rating in the teens; and at the rate he's going now, it won't be long till he's there. Include the same formula for Hispanics and he already is, which leaves us with the knowledge that more than 80% of America holds some lesser opinion of its president than strongly approve, ranging from strongly disapprove to who gives a rat's butt.
Am. thinker
the quirk "into the wild" episode begins.
ReplyDeleteany bets on him getting "rabbit starvation" than followed up by some Wendigo Psychosis. wait, after reading his posts for awhile maybe this explains him and rats stuff they try to peddle around the bar.
A few days out here, out of his soft urban element, he'll be on all fours, howling at the moon like a wolf, eating grain, and thinking he's a goose, make no mistake.
ReplyDeleteHe will be, like the phrase in "King Lear" - 'the very thing itself'.
ReplyDeleteHere's the part that should be scaring us to death: The Prius was built in Japan, most of the Solar Panels, and Wind Turbines are built in China, and
ReplyDeletethat new, super efficient-on-ethanol engine of Buick's is designed, and built in Germany.
We have Got to get our collective heads out of our asses.
Thou art the thing itself: unaccommodated man is no more but such a poor bare, forked animal as thou art.
ReplyDeletePoor Lear
Get an Idaho license plate the moment you cross the border or you'll be in somebody's crosshairs, is the first piece of advice. Turn around and go home, is the second.
ReplyDeleteOh Pshaw, Idaho is just eastern Washington. The big difference is when you hit Montana, and see more casinos than gas stations. And if you step inside, you 'llsee a bunch of unemployed locals sitting there playing slots with their unemployment money cuz they ain't got nothing better to do.
A few days out here, out of his soft urban element, he'll be on all fours, howling at the moon...
ReplyDeleteFoolish man.
I have survived Telegragh Rd. construction in the summer time.
I have trvelled down Fort St. with my car windows open.
At night.
I have survided the nadir of the Lions 0 - 16 season.
I fear nothing of Idaho except the lack of inside plumbing and the fact that McDonald's has yet to establish a franchise there.
.
Quirk has done survided.....
ReplyDeleteHe's been divided and survived, an accomplishment, indeed.
ReplyDelete"Here's the part that should be scaring us to death: The Prius was built in Japan, most of the Solar Panels, and Wind Turbines are built in China, and
ReplyDeletethat new, super efficient-on-ethanol engine of Buick's is designed, and built in Germany.
We have Got to get our collective heads out of our asses."
Close 75% of the law schools and convert them to schools of science, engineering and manufacturing.
Our Economy/Culture is based on cheap energy. During the Boom Times of the late Nineties you could buy a barrel of oil on the world market for around $9.00 and change.
ReplyDeleteToday you're looking at an 800 to 900% Higher price. This, kiddos, has consequences.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe extrapolation of the Rasmussen results is flawed.
ReplyDeleteRasmussen does not poll in that manner, creating a direct mirror of society, but distorts the polling pool to achieve what he thinks is a more representative model of perspective voters.
Or so he says.
One reason his results are not accepted by other pollsters, and sometimes are more accurate representations of the electorate than the other polls produce.
Close 75% of the law schools and convert them to schools of science, engineering and manufacturing.
ReplyDeleteWaste of time if there are no jobs for them.
I've been complaining for years about the loss of manufacturing jobs. The other side on the argument says that the US is becoming a service economy with all kinds of super, well paying jobs in finance. The goal to become the next Dubai.
Wall Street, CNBC, the government have all pushed the meme.
Now we see the results. The seed corn is gone, the only jobs being created are in government, and Dubai is going bankrupt.
.
The Big Fossil Fuels/Oil Companies are in Total Control of the Narrative, Deuce.
ReplyDeleteUntil the American people see through the bullshit to the Truth we're spinning our wheels.
The Consortium is enormous.
OPEC, and their Media minions (NewsCorp - Fox News, and the Wall Street Journal dancing to the tune of their second largest investor,) The Elite Newspapers supported by advertisements from Exxon, Conoco, Chevron, and their Myriad of Huge Hedge Fund Investors, Politicians, and their PACS deeply buried in the pockets of same.
Supposed "environmental" groups, funded by Exxon, and the consortium, trying to destroy home-grown biofuels.
Breathless, ingenuous announcements of new oil fields that will provide "100,000 barrels of oil equivalent/day while the world's oil fields are declining at a rate of approx. 3.5 Million barrels/day, annually.
A "Hard Rain" is going to fall, alright. We're just now feeling the first sprinkles.
Today you're looking at an 800 to 900% Higher price. This, kiddos, has consequences.
ReplyDeleteOf course it has consequences and they are likely to get worse; but they are not the reason we are in the shit we are in today.
.
The Good News is, we can "fix it" in just a few years. Once we realize what "It" is.
ReplyDeleteWell, to make a statement like that, Q, you have got to be one hell of a lot smarter than I.
ReplyDeleteGoes without saying Ruf.
ReplyDelete:)
.
than me.
ReplyDeletewhatever
Rufus:During the Boom Times of the late Nineties you could buy a barrel of oil on the world market for around $9.00 and change.
ReplyDeleteBoom times? That was during the currency crisis that hit Asia in 1998. You want to use an outlier in the data as your baseline?
An average family in one of the two lower quintiles will use approx. 1,500 gallons of gasoline in a year. You can't yank that family's gasoline expense from $125.00/month to $500.00/Month (July, '08) without accruing severe consequences.
ReplyDeleteWas that the "only" factor in the blow-up? Surely not. Was it Huge? What do you think?
Well, fine, T; pick a date. Around $18.00, or $19.00 in the early 2000's? It doesn't change the story much, does it?
ReplyDeleteAnd, of course, of possibly greater importance is: Where does the money go?
ReplyDeleteIn Iowa, and Minnesota, and N. Dakota the money is going to the next door neighbor (literally,) whereas in the case of Mississippi, or Washington State that 2/3rds of that money is going far, far away, and will, quite likely, NEVER find its way back to the pockets of Teresita, Q, or Rufus.
Manufacturing could easily be revived and with a vengeance. One good thing about having manufacturing crushed is that you can start fresh with state of the art capital equipment and sane and balanced labor management relations.
ReplyDeleteAlso, quit allowing US government securities to be held by foreign governments. That scam allows countries to export to the US without every buying anything from us. Total bullshit.
The year of Global Peak Crude Oil production was 2005. The Peak Month was July 2008 when we reached 74.74 million barrels/day.
ReplyDeleteWe are, currently, bouncing around 73 to 74 million bpd. Will we ever exceed 74.74 mbpd? Maybe. For a month, or two.
Will we exceed 74.74 by any consequential amount for any appreciable length of time. Not really much of a chance.
And, all the while, China, India, the rest of Asia, and the OPEC countries, themselves, are demanding an extra 1.5 Million barrel/day every year. How do you suppose That is going to end up?
OPEC overproduced about 200 Million Barrels of oil following the Crash of July, '08 before they could get the spigots closed off. It's been stored around the world in tankers in what's been referred to as "floating storage." We've, now, worked through virtually All of that.
Saudi Arabia is acknowledged by most independent experts of having a spare capacity, at present, of probably about 1.5 mbpd, while new fields coming online are about 1 to 1.5 mbpd short of making up for the decline of existing fields.
In short, we are getting pretty damned close to the edge. And, that sweet Exxon is whispering in our ear, "Trust Me."
During the Great Depression we built numerous Dams for hydroelectric power. See: Hoover Dam, TVA, etc, along with a courthouse in almost every county (ever wondered why they all look almost identical?)
ReplyDeletePerhaps, this time around we'll build an ethanol refinery in every county. It would be SOOoooo easy to do.
If the Feds can be restrained, business will resume US manufacturing when it becomes economically feasible.
ReplyDeleteI hear all the time about how quickly the Empire State Building was built. You can hardly get an environmental study completed in that timeframe these days.
Look at the bureaucratic nonsense surrounding the BP disaster. Obama wouldn't waive OSHA, Coast Guard or EPA rules.
ReplyDeleteRufus:During the Boom Times of the late Nineties you could buy a barrel of oil on the world market for around $9.00 and change.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you called him on that "stretch", Teresita.
If you could ever buy it at that price in that timeframe, it was probably for about ten minutes or less.
It was a Blue Light Special.
ReplyDeleteRight Ruf. All our problems are 'Big Oil's' fault.
ReplyDeleteYou look at one obvious cause or perhaps only a symptom of our problem and declare it to be the root cause of the problem. Hoc ergo propter hoc.
You cited an example of how higher gas prices hurt the family. No doubt about it. However, the hit wouldn't have been so severe if median wages had kept up with productivity gains over the last thirty years and if decent middle class jobs had kept up with population growth.
People talk about how much better off (materially) the average family is now than 30 years ago. Perhaps, but look at the costs.
Productivity has skyrocketed over that time yet median wages have remained stagnant. How did the family pay for that second car?
Starting in the 70's women started entering the workforce in significant numbers. That continued into the 90's so that two salary households became the norm. Then when that source of extra income couldn't grow anymore we had a decade where everyone could refinance every couple years to pay their current debt.
And what about the jobs during that period. We've already talked about loss of good paying manufacturing jobs. We have replaced them by government jobs and service jobs. Sounds great until you have no one left out there to buy the services. The manufacturing jobs are shipped overseas and the de facto government industrial policy (taxes, etc.) encourage it.
And unlike the government, when most people run out of money they are told "No" by the service providers.
We have hit a brick wall because of the co-dependant relationship between politicians and business.
You worry about gasoline prices, try worrying about health care costs.
You want a villian? Big Oil? Sure. But what about Big Insurance? The Big Banks? The Big Multinationals? Hell in 2005 (think that was the year) 25% of the biggest companies in the US paid 0 taxes.
We've hit a wall but it's not because of the high price of gasoline.
.
We have hit a brick wall because of the co-dependant relationship between politicians and business.
ReplyDeleteAnd you want the Dems to keep the Senate, and would vote Obama over Palin.
If You Get Hungry Out In Our Wilderness Search Out Some Huckleberries
Your taste would be good this time of year, Quirk.
Dems To Try Political Triage To Keep Control Of House
ReplyDeleteI like the sounds of that. Let 'em triage, triage, triage.
Last night the wife didn't get any sleep, so we're not working today. So I can ridicule Quirk all the day. :) Playfully, of course.
Before you throw the Bullshit Flag you might want to be sure your balls aren't tied to it. Oil Price (annual) in 1998 - $11.91
ReplyDeleteAmerica's Most Dangerous Hike
ReplyDeleteHuckleberry Mountain, Glacier National Park
Take a warning, Miss T.
These aren't black bears we're talking about.
Rufus, you're always bringing balls into the conversation.
ReplyDeleteDec, 1998 - Eight Dollars and Sixty Four Motherfucking Cents!
ReplyDelete"Stretch That!"
Idaho Senate: Crapo (R) 63%, Sullivan (D) 24%
ReplyDeleteNearly four to one.
Count our Senate seat 'safe'.
Nearly three to one, rather.
ReplyDeleteQ, you said:
ReplyDeleteHowever, the hit wouldn't have been so severe if median wages had kept up with productivity gains over the last thirty years and if decent middle class jobs had kept up with population growth.
Well, you see, here's the problem, Q. It was an aberration. We had the only working assembly lines in the known Universe.
We had bombed everyone else's into obliteration. Japan? Gone. Germany? Gone. England? Gone (courtesy of the Krauts on this one.) You get the picture?
Sign at the Port of Newark: "We Make, the rest of the world takes."
It was the Golden Age. Was.
Europe's back.
Japan is Back.
England is Back.
Add - China, India, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, et al.
Getting the picture?
It's a "World" Market. You want to make $50,000.00/Yr while the Chinaman is making $5,000.00/Yr?
ReplyDeleteYou have to put out 10 times the Product.
10 X
End of Story.
Is the GM plant in Detroit 10 X More Efficient than the GM plant in Beijing? No? Well, shit; what are we going to do about that?
ReplyDeleteGet used to rickshaws.
ReplyDeleteThink of the employment benefits.
Not to mention global warming.
ReplyDeleteActually, I misstated. The "Plant" doesn't have to be 10 X as efficient. One, or two percent is fine.
ReplyDeleteIt's the "Worker" that has to be 10 X as efficient.
What's in Fort Knox---Coast to Coast poll after last night's program
ReplyDeleteBillions in gold. 27.7% (1,142 votes)
Empty vaults filled with IOUs. 55.7% (2,301 votes)
All of my missing right socks lost in the laundry. 16.6% (686 votes)
Total Votes: 4,129
Most people just don't trust the govment these days.
It doesn't matter what's in Ft. Knox, Bob. Gold is only good for jewelry, and certain electronic devices.
ReplyDeleteRufus: Well, fine, T; pick a date. Around $18.00, or $19.00 in the early 2000's? It doesn't change the story much, does it?
ReplyDeleteBack then we were debating whether or not to give China "most-favored nation" trading status. Nowadays we have a black President ushering in the Taiwanese chief-of-state through the servant's entrance in the White House to avoid offending our lenders in Beijing, who have become the second-largest consumer of energy in the world and the largest producer of CO2.
I was going to say you can't eat it, but, the Japanese actually do. I saw a program showed the Japanese adding these extremely fine layers of gold to their noon meal, whatever it was.
ReplyDeleteSeemed odd as hell to me.
Anonymous bob said...
ReplyDeleteAmerica's Most Dangerous Hike
Huckleberry Mountain, Glacier National Park
Take a warning, Miss T.
These aren't black bears we're talking about.
Taoteching 46:
There is no greater illusion than fear,
No greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself,
No greater misfortune than having an enemy.
Whoever can see through all fear
will always be safe.
The Japanese will, definitely, do some odd shit from time to time.
ReplyDeleteDid any of them Tao-teachings say anything about carrying a .44 Magnum? (you know, just in case that griz cain't "see through the fear")
ReplyDeleteGood grief, Miss T, you'll be Grizzly lunch meat.
ReplyDeleteBest to follow the Tao of Rufus: Verse 44, magnum edition.
I have absolutely no idea how important this is (or, even if it "is" important.)
ReplyDeleteNew LED is 20,000 More Powerful than Previous LEDs
Superbroke, Superfrugal, Superpower?
ReplyDeleteBy THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
In recent years, I have often said to European friends: So, you didn’t like a world of too much American power? See how you like a world of too little American power — because it is coming to a geopolitical theater near you. Yes, America has gone from being the supreme victor of World War II, with guns and butter for all, to one of two superpowers during the cold war, to the indispensable nation after winning the cold war, to “The Frugal Superpower” of today.
Get used to it.
I'll believe it when I see the Headline:
ReplyDelete100,000 overfed, underworked, fat-assed Generals brought back from Europe to be Fired.
100,000 overfed, underworked, fat-assed Generals brought back from Europe to be Fired.
ReplyDeleteUSC TITLE 10
Subtitle A
PART II
CHAPTER 32
§ 526. Authorized strength: general and flag officers on active duty
(a) Limitations.— The number of general officers on active duty in the Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps, and the number of flag officers on active duty in the Navy, may not exceed the number specified for the armed force concerned as follows:
(1) For the Army, 230.
(2) For the Navy, 160.
(3) For the Air Force, 208.
(4) For the Marine Corps, 60.
What a beautiful day here, 75 degrees, sunny, the park filled with people, nice light breeze blowing in off the lake.
ReplyDeleteLife is good.
.
There is no greater illusion than fear,
ReplyDeleteNo greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself,...
I assume the guy who first said this is dead now.
.
Glad you are enjoying it Quirk. We got a cold snap here, it's down in the sixties somewheres, cloudy. Harvest halted because of yesterday's rain.
ReplyDeleteLife is good.
The local doves will be heading south after this, as they always do. They really should have the dove season in August here.
I assume the guy who first said this is dead now.
ReplyDeleteIf he isn't he will be soon, and it's good to know we have warriors like Miss T defending us. :)
I don't think she really means it though. I think she'd pull the trigger. Or rather, push the button.
ReplyDeleteProperty of Afghan bank bosses frozen, but not Karzai's brother's
ReplyDeleteBy Andrew Higgins
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - Struggling to contain asset-stripping at Afghanistan's biggest bank, Afghan authorities have barred the sale of Kabul properties held by the troubled bank's principal owners. But the freeze excludes President Hamid Karzai's brother, who is the third largest Kabul Bank shareholder.
The Afghan Central Bank ordered the property-sale ban in a letter reviewed by The Washington Post. Sent to Kabul municipal authorities, it targets five people, including Kabul Bank's two biggest shareholders - who were ousted last Monday as executives of the bank - and the brother of Afghanistan's vice president, who is both a shareholder and major borrower.
No restrictions were placed on the president's own brother, Mahmoud Karzai, who has also borrowed money from Kabul Bank, including $6 million that he used to buy a 7 percent stake in the now crumbling bank.
"They couldn't freeze my property because I don't have it," said Mahmoud Karzai in a telephone interview from Kabul. "I don't have a single house or parcel of land in my name in Afghanistan."
Afghans frequently register their assets in the names of relatives or trusted friends. Mahmoud Karzai spends much of his time in Dubai, where he lives in a luxury villa purchased for $5.5 million with Kabul Bank funds
It shouldn't take long for the muzzies to wipe out the remaining Taoists, like they did the Buddhists, in India.
ReplyDeleteReporting from Baghdad —
ReplyDeleteAmerican soldiers helped Iraqi troops battle insurgents in downtown Baghdad on Sunday, repelling a major attack in the heart of the capital city five days after President Obama declared an end to U.S. combat operations.
At least 18 people were killed and 39 injured in the midday attack in which a group of suicide bombers and gunmen attempted to storm the Iraqi army's headquarters for eastern Baghdad, located in a former Ministry of Defense building in a busy market district alongside the Tigris River.
No Americans were among the casualties, said military spokesman Lt Col. Eric Bloom. But U.S. soldiers did join in the firefight alongside Iraqis to repel the assailants, two of whom managed to enter the army compound.
Pastor Manning Gets A Visit From The Nascent Political Police
ReplyDeleteIt's the "Worker" that has to be 10 X as efficient.
ReplyDeleteI said the last 30 years, late 70's to now. By the early 80's Japan was cleaning our clocks in autos because they were the only ones that had the small cars.The countries you mentioned in Europe had 30 years to rebuild after the war and we paid for a big portion of it.
In fact, the countries you mentioned had newer factories and equipment because they had to start over after the war. They also didn't have the pension and other costs the US did.
As for labor costs, they are generally not more than 20% of total manufacturing costs. usually between 10 - 20 %. The US disadvantage there could normally be offset by other factors all things being equal.
However, thing are not equal.
GM and Ford and the others went to China not specifically for cheap labor. They went in order to gain access to the market. In order to get into that market, China demands that they also export. It's and industrial policy. We would also be in Japan if Japan allowed it. They won't. That also is an industrial policy. In fact most countries have industrial policies trying to help out their manufacturing sector. Most except for the US.
You want some of the other factors involved, read this:
Currency Manipulation
When you are getting hit by 35% due to currency, it's hard to catch up.
Tax policy. The US encourages US companies to offshore jobs through provisions of the tax code. Others don't. One of the first things US companies run into when trying to set up JV's in China is the two-ledger system the JV partners have set up for tax avoidance, the tax ledger and the administrative ledger.
They also try to get set up under a classification (I think it's something like TRS) which indicates a rural company. There they don't have to pay stuff like pensions and welfare. Safety regulations? Forget about it.
They don't pay thes guys much but in a lot of cases you can pretty much forget about major productivity gains also.
The US manufacturer works under a number of disadvantages that the government ignores under the rubrik of free trade.
Obviously not a trend but for the second quarter in the US for manufacturing productivity rose 4.1% and unit labor costs dropped 5.9%.
.
Prohibit foreign ownership of US debt and what will they do with their dollars if they don't buy something or invest in the US?
ReplyDeleteCNN) -- With less than two months to go until a critical midterm election likely to turn on the economy, President Obama this week will lay out a new plan that includes a proposal to extend a tax cut popular with the business community, according to an administration official.
ReplyDeleteThe official said the president will push Congress to permanently extend the tax credit for business research and development costs.
That proposal will cost $100 billion and be paid for by closing other corporate tax breaks, according to the official.
Obama will never get it.
ReplyDeleteBarack, Can We Talk?
ReplyDeleteBarack, can we, uh, talk for a few minutes?
It just seems we haven't had a chance to talk for a while. I mean, I know we've both been busy for the past year or so. You with your fundraisers and golfing and stuff, and me with all those appointments at the unemployment office.
Do you remember when we met at that big party in Denver back in 08? I mean when I saw you across that crowded convention floor, it was like, Oh My God. I don't think I ever saw anything like you before. I was on the rebound from a bad relationship and you were so tall and articulate and, well hot. And then I couldn't believe that of all the democracies in the room you picked me out!
Yeah I know my some of my friends warned me you were trouble, and that it was the alcohol talking. But I knew that if we gave it a chance we could make it work. You and me, together. And after you moved in, I really think we did for a while.
And please don't think I don't appreciate all the constructive criticism. It's important for me to know when I'm not meeting your needs and when I'm holding you back. Look, I know I'm not the prettiest democracy in the hemisphere, and I really can't blame you when your eyes wander to Spain or Venezuela. It's just been kind of hard to pay attention to my appearance since losing my job.
I guess what I was trying to say is that those early days were magical. But, well, maybe magic isn't the best basis for a... Shit. Look, maybe the best way to do this is just come out and say it. I think it's best if we take a break.
There, I said it.
No, Tea Party didn't put me up to this. Yeah, sure I've see him around the neighborhood. I mean, what am I supposed to do while you're off vacationing with your friends? Sit around this place without a job and watch MSNBC? No, it's platonic. So far. And for your information, Tea isn't the retarded Nazi racist loser your friends are always painting him to be. And guess what? He listens to me and seems to like me for what I am, and doesn't expect me to wear that stupid complicated Scandinavian nurse outfit like you gave me for Christmas. By the way, the charge card bill from Frederick's of Stockholm just arrived yesterday. $1 trillion, Barack? Really?
Look, let's be civil adults and not let this descend into yelling. It's really not you, it's me. We both know you deserve a better democracy than me. I mean, let's face it - you're cool and urbane and Euro and sexy; I'm frumpy and overweight and not that bright. You've said so plenty of times yourself. And you're probably right that I'll never quite understand you. But I think I know you well enough now to understand you'd be happier with a different country to govern.
Tax cut? Please Barack, I appreciate the gesture, but it's a little late for romantic gifts. Don't embarrass both of us. Let's just go on from here and remember the good times. Don't worry about me. I know it'll be hard, but I need to show myself I can make it without you. Somehow.
From Iowahawk
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ReplyDeleteHow did that happen?
ReplyDeleteBeats me.
Duece wrote:
ReplyDelete"Also, quit allowing US government securities to be held by foreign governments."
and again:
"Prohibit foreign ownership of US debt and what will they do with their dollars if they don't buy something or invest in the US?"
but, but, if foreigners weren't allowed to buy US debt who the hell would??? Pretty damn hard to float those treasuries if you cut off a huge portion of the market. I'm puzzled why you think this would be a good thing to do Deuce.
Ash: but, but, if foreigners weren't allowed to buy US debt who the hell would???
ReplyDeleteThe Fed. Neat little trick they do, they just print Benjamins until they have enough to buy the bonds that are on auction. It's like being the banker in Monopoly, and having ten business cards that say $10,500 on the back, and selling them to the other players for $10,000. If you only sell 9 of them, you just take $10,000 out of the bank, then stick that last business card in the bank, put the $10,000 back in the bank, and declare the "bond auction" a success.
It's sad as hell really, no laughing matter. Jobs Not Returning
ReplyDeleteNot being schooled on the economy I don't have any recipe except cut taxes and regulations and create cheaper energy. And of course immigration.
Funny thing happened to that Yuan on the way to revaluation; the Chinese let it float a bit a couple of weeks ago. At first it rose a bit, just like it was 'sposed to, and then,
ReplyDeleteit fell back.
hmmm, it may not be quite as "undervalued" as we thought.
So, if "labor" is 20% of the cost of the product, and their labor cost is 90% less than ours, then they have cut the cost of the product by 18%.
18% on a $20,000.00 car is $3,600.00
You continue to miss the point Ruf.
ReplyDeleteThere is definately a labor cost disadvantage.
The point is the US companies have been attacking that disadvantage through productivity, etc.
Under a level playing field scenario we would have a chance of pricing competitively because of advantages we have in other areas.
There is no level playing field.
There will always be some difference tied to exchange rate differences. In the early 80"s the US was 7% uncompetive to most of Europe. That 7% was due entirely to the strong dollar. You can't really get away from it if you have a free floating exchange rate.
However, if we are talking about a manipulated exchange rate with a controlled currency it becomes really easy to start complaining about it.
The US government appears unconcerned. They either don't give a shit about their manufacturing base or they have another reason (maybe a good one for all I know). But the US manufacturer is still taking it in the ass.
.
From the Friedman column linked by Panama Ed above:
ReplyDelete“In 2008,” Mandelbaum notes, “all forms of government-supplied pensions and health care (including Medicaid) constituted about 4 percent of total American output.” At present rates, and with the baby boomers soon starting to draw on Social Security and Medicare, by 2050 “they will account for a full 18 percent of everything the United States produces.”
I could ramble here for a few good - long - minutes about the many cross-current debates I've heard on the subject of entitlements, but I'll let it slide.**
Bottom line is that I would like to see the a separate accounting entry for Congressional pensions and health care benefits.
Total outlay and normalized as a per capita number.
**All right. Just one story. Listened to Boone Pickens present his nat gas plan for truckers a few weeks ago. His key selling point is reducing dependence on foreign oil. Ex-NY Gov Pataki was also present, although one had to wonder to what extent. Pataki's theme was reducing entitlements as the only way to reign in growing deficits. I wonder which will go first. Not really but I thought I would throw it out there. Pickens looked like he wanted to disappear from the set.
Friedman mentioned something about prioritizing in his article. Good luck with that. It's all in the execution. Which right now just sucks. It's like looking for the policy equivalent of hard-bodied men at a Sunday School bake sale.
Everyone is a free trader until he doesn't have job.
ReplyDeleteEveryone loves cheap goods until they don't have any money coming in to buy them.
.
"Fixing" social security should be child's play compared to Medicare.
ReplyDeleteSome of the fixes for SS seem to make sense, changing the formula for increases to one based on inflation rather than as currently on wage increases and then gradually moving out the age for eligibility (a little tricky right now if you a 60 year old who is out of a job).
Medicare/Medicaid is the big problem especially with the new Healthcare Bill. The Dems hired a bunch of PR firms to tell them how to approach the Healthcare issue when speaking to their constituents. First thing they were told was to drop the claims that the new Bill would help extend the life of Medicare.
No one is buying it.
.
Ash said:
ReplyDelete...but, but, if foreigners weren't allowed to buy US debt who the hell would??? Pretty damn hard to float those treasuries if you cut off a huge portion of the market. I'm puzzled why you think this would be a good thing to do Deuce.
Would that be a bad thing to finally force the US Government to live within its means? They have been getting away with it because the foreign sales of US debt transfers the trade deficits into the future.
US banks routinely leverage their capital on a ten to one basis. China accumulates $i trillion (now more) in US securities and that allows for $10 trillion in lending to Chinese manufactures, the Chinese military or the purchase of commodities and raw materials.
How is stopping that a bad thing?
Just checkin in.
ReplyDeleteMany of the "manufacturers" are actually doing alright. They're doing "alright" by replacing those workers with machines, computers, etc.
ReplyDeleteIt's those people that are being replaced that aren't doing so hunkey-dorey. Same thing happened in the early thirties.
It's called a "paradigm shift," chilluns. I think I started writing about this along about 2007.
"paradigm shift"?
ReplyDeleteNot really, we made a very bad deal with China and let bankers and money merchants break good companies. How is it Germany maintains itself as an industrial power house. What happened to their
"paradigm shift"?
Who peddled the bullshit that domestic manufacturing was not important?
ReplyDeleteThe same crowd that made fast money acquiring real companies with borrowed money and paid it back with a fire sale on the corporate assets, then outsourced production to foreign sub-contractors.
Europe, Japan and the oil producing countries got a free ride on the US military.
ReplyDeleteHowdy, just checkin' in.
ReplyDeleteI've spent most of the day ridiculing Quirk, a favorite pastime of mine.
Hope your party went well.
The Russell Company, then, which funded Yale and the Skull & Boners, now.
ReplyDeleteBack through the Presidents Roosevelt and FDR's grandfather, a one time CEO of The Russell Company.
Opium and coolie traders.
Drugs and cheap labor.
That history shit, coming back at ya.
More of the same, today, follow the money and the family blood ties.
Just a coincidence, of course.
Had to liberate Afghanistan, you know. The Taliban cut opium production to the bone.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't have that.
Wouldn't be prudent.
"Fixing" social security should be child's play compared to Medicare.
ReplyDeleteHaving a Green Moment here. Agree completely. SS is not a problem in search of a solution. Washington however insists it "can't be done." Over and over. Same words. Same phrasing. They won't touch it.
Health care is a clusterf^ck. Gets back to my point - Congress can't execute on the big issues. Universal coverage requires mandated coverage, which was possibly the most politically offensive lightening rod of the legislation.
Nevertheless, Pickens was talking energy and Pataki had his own narrative. Congress is divided on the deficit/economy policy. (Not that there's anything new about that. Except exceptionally bad timing.) Interesting to see if the Pickens bill passes. Should vote next month.
The Russians would tell us that Afghanistan was a
ReplyDelete"War for Drugs".
And that US policy there, in Afghanistan was aimed at disrupting Russia.
Remembering that it was the US Army Corps of Engineers that built the irrigation system that water the poppies, in the 1950's.
Russia battling Afghanistan's heroin industry
...
Under George W Bush the US was preparing to roll out in Afghanistan the crop eradication policy that had proved successful in Columbia, including aerial crop spraying. But under Barack Obama there has been a U-turn on the issue. Obama's Afghanistan special representative, Richard Holbrooke, and the head of international and US forces General Stanley McChrystal both argue crop eradication would fuel the insurgency by depriving farmers of livelihoods, forcing them to sign up to the insurgency.
Comical, this line
Under George W Bush the US was preparing to roll out in Afghanistan the crop eradication policy ...
When we remember that the US had been in control of Afghanistan for most of seven years, when G W Bush left office, and the US was still in the "... preparing to roll out ..." phase of the battle.
Yeah, Japan, and Europe have had a free ride. As for Germany: let's don't overlook the fact that their unemployment rate has been about this high for many years, and they, also, have a per capita GDP maybe 10% higher than Mississippi.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's a paradigm shift. New jobs, requiring new skills will be opening up.
Don't get caught in 20th Century thinking.
Yeah, it's a paradigm shift. New jobs, requiring new skills will be opening up.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting tired of paradigm shifts.
I remember when 4% unemployment represented full employment.
Then before the latest blowup 5-6% was considered full employment.
I've mentioned before I expect within a year or two to hear some economist or politician indicate there has been a secular paradigm shift and 7% unemployment represents full employment.
.
It don't matter. You might be tired of paradigm shifts, but paradigm shifts ain't tired of you.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, them pair a dime shifts is looking forward to many enjoyable, an entertaining years with You.
ReplyDeletePanama Ed/AKA the Rat says: The Russell Company, then, which funded Yale and the Skull & Boners, now.
ReplyDeleteBack through the Presidents Roosevelt and FDR's grandfather, a one time CEO of The Russell Company.
Opium and coolie traders.
Drugs and cheap labor.
That history shit, coming back at ya.
More of the same, today, follow the money and the family blood ties.
Just a coincidence, of course.
Do you idiots read this shit?
Do you understand these rants?????
Jewish Blood lines, Control of Banks
What a freaking retarded Jew hating Jackel...
Do some googling you fucking sheep...
Rat makes Mel Gibson look sane.
The U.S. economy will eventually rebound from the Great Recession. Millions of American workers will not.
ReplyDeleteWhat some economists now project — and policymakers are loath to admit — is that the U.S. unemployment rate, which stood at 9.6% in August, could remain elevated for years to come.
The nation's job deficit is so deep that even a powerful recovery would leave large numbers of Americans out of work for years, experts say. And with growth now weakening, analysts are doubtful that companies will boost payrolls significantly any time soon.
Unemployment, long considered a temporary, transitional condition in the United States, appears to be settling in for a lengthy run..."
Paradigm Shift?
.
Do you idiots read this shit?
ReplyDeleteNo WiO, we don't.
You're the only one who reads it and notices when rat gets on one of these tears.
Everyone else just ignores it.
.
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ReplyDeleteYou're coming unhinged, Wio. Rat's not bothering you. Go start trouble someplace else.
ReplyDeleteFDR was a Jew?
ReplyDeleteGeorge Bush was a Jew?
Prescott, too?
The Story of "o" has more than a screw loose.
He is demented, possessed by demonic forces that have left him friendless and alone in his own community.
Which explains why he denies the humanity of the 1.5 million Jews exterminated by the Israelis, since 1949.
The Israeli, doing King Herod's work, still today.
ReplyDeleteRat's Rant...
ReplyDeleteHe is demented, possessed by demonic forces that have left him friendless and alone in his own community.
Now that's funny shit...
No Rat, I think it's you projecting..
Seeing Satan and Jews under every bed...
Skulls and Bones, secret rituals and alliances...
You are quite insane
Good article, Q, but Bob linked it at 06:47 :)
ReplyDeleteGee rat, didn't you mention that before?
ReplyDeleteMaybe fifty times.
.
rufus said...
ReplyDeleteYou're coming unhinged, Wio. Rat's not bothering you. Go start trouble someplace else.
Rufus, for one second, pull your rat defending head out of your ass and actually read his posts..
but's that is not possible for you is it?
if you had any ability you could actually READ his posts, do a little research and understand that Rat is insane....
Don't let him start it up, Rat. The man's gone nuts. Let him be.
ReplyDeletedesert rat said...
ReplyDeleteThe Israeli, doing King Herod's work, still today.
Here is a secret for our mentally retarded Rat.
King Herod?
Not a real Jew...
You on the other hand?
Are really insane...
Quirk said...
ReplyDeleteDo you idiots read this shit?
No WiO, we don't.
You're the only one who reads it and notices when rat gets on one of these tears.
Everyone else just ignores it.
Ah... so you ignore the postings of a insane Jew hating, Zionist hating, Israel hating self confessed murderer...
But Rufus blames me when I actually read the INSANE rants of Rat?
Interesting standards.....
Good article, Q, but Bob linked it at 06:47 :)
ReplyDeleteWell screw Bob and screw you too Ruf.
You guys aren't going to see me around here again.
Well at least for about an hour. I got to watch a TV show with my wife.
(I wondered where that article came from. I was clearing some of the screens I had up on my computer and that one popped up.
Since it tied in which my previous post I assumed it was the spirits looking out for me.)
.
Have a nice day, Wio. Hope it all works out for you. :)
ReplyDeleteAh... so you ignore the postings of a insane Jew hating, Zionist hating, Israel hating self confessed murderer...
ReplyDeleteYea, we fucking ignore it.
We've seen it all a million times before. Engaging him would just drag it out. Ignore him and he eventually goes away.
You want us to get involved? We don't give a fuck about your and rat's little vendetta.
.
Not when we got Q denying the pair a dimes.
ReplyDeleteWho is this wi"o", anyway?
ReplyDeleteDoes he suffer from a form of dementia?
He certainly suffers from a serious lack of cognitive ability.
To take the entertainment value of the Skull & Bones history, of the fraternal brotherhood of JFKerry and GW Bush and ruin all the comedic value, by claiming that both are just the face of Judaism in the modern world.
Such a distortion of the personal history of both men and their respective families, a sure sign of well developed dementia.
To claim that Barbara Bush, a descendant of President Franklin Pearce, was representative of Judaism ...
Even if she and President Pearce were Jewish, it would not change the facts on the ground, in Afghanistan. Nor explain the US protecting the drugs flowing into Russian blood streams.
Unless that is part of some global conspiracy of religious fanatics, pretending to be Born Again Christians, while they were really closeted Jews.
Rufus said:
ReplyDeleteDec, 1998 - Eight Dollars and Sixty Four Motherfucking Cents!
"Stretch That!"
Well, I couldn't let that challenge go unanswered so I did some research and as best I can tell, I was right. Oil did briefly do a "Blue Light Special" in late 98 for a week or so. Otherwise for most of the mid to late 90's, it was two to three times higher than Rufus' quote.
:) You sure you did cut yourself?
..."didn't cut yourself?"
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCut it out, rat.
ReplyDeleteDo some googling you fucking sheep..
ReplyDeleteWho are you talking to?
I am going to start deleting.
ReplyDeleteAnybody have a problem with that?
You better go back and look at That Link again, Whit.
ReplyDeleteThe average for All of 1998 was $11.91, and the prices continued into 1999 with $9.86 in Jan, and $9.30 in Feb, 1999.
Start deleting, Boss. Any post with the word "Jew" in it.
ReplyDeleteOr, "Jewish," or Israel, or Zionist.
ReplyDeleteI would say Wio's 09:01 would be a good place to start.
ReplyDeleteI always read WiO, and enjoy it, I never read rat any longer, except inadvertantly.
ReplyDeleteIt just isn't worth it.
I certainly was not baiting anyone, whit.
ReplyDeleteA little light hearted Skull & Boner conspiracy theory is not Jew baiting. Those boys are many things, but JFKerry is no Jew.
Nor the Born Again President that lit a "Thousand Points of Light". Providing Federal dollars to churches across the United States, to do "good works".
If he was there would not have been Ramadan dinners at the White House.
Anyone that would make such a claim, either demented or the stuff that comedy routines are made of.
Both, really.
Have at it, whit.
ReplyDeleteWhit,
ReplyDeleteFeel free to delete any of my posts...
Just delete the bullshit that I AM RESPONDING TO..
I do not post for not reason..
I say NOTHING until I see the insane rantings of Rat, AKA Panama Ed, AKA Dr Hess, AKA who the fuck know who...
I do not attack unless I see attacks...
Delete away my friend, just flush the rat droppings down the hole too...
The Russell Company conspiracy theory having a lot more leg to it than the claims that Obama was born in Kenya.
ReplyDeleteThe Russell Company has a historical basis, the players were who they were, their charitable foundation does own the ground that Yale is built upon and the Skull & Bones does exist. Also funded by that same charitable foundation.
The Obama birth in Africa story, fabricated whole clothe.
Just one problemo, Wio. Rat didn't do anything. You did.
ReplyDeleteBack to the topic, I think the best thing we could do for jobs and wages right now is elect a Republicn Congress and get a little confidence back in the equation. I'm thinking stocks would probably rally.
ReplyDeleteWe could always vote, see who thinks there is humanity in a fetus and who denies that there is.
ReplyDeleteThe Obama birth in Africa story, fabricated whole clothe
ReplyDeleteBy some of his family in Africa.
all the bullshit starts HERE:
ReplyDeletePanama Ed said...
The Russell Company, then, which funded Yale and the Skull & Boners, now.
Back through the Presidents Roosevelt and FDR's grandfather, a one time CEO of The Russell Company.
Opium and coolie traders.
Drugs and cheap labor.
That history shit, coming back at ya.
More of the same, today, follow the money and the family blood ties.
Just a coincidence, of course.
Sun Sep 05, 08:11:00 PM EDT
Total garbage, total buzz words, total Jewish conspiracy crap...
(sorry Rufus, I realize you are not capable of understanding anything other than oil projections, for which I agree with you pov but your defense of a jew hating nazi wannabe? disgusting)
Delete all posts that refer to Jewish fetuses, or abortions in Israel. THAT is baiting.
ReplyDeleterufus said...
ReplyDeleteJust one problemo, Wio. Rat didn't do anything. You did.
That is because you cannot comprehend what he is writing....
Might I suggest you not comment on things that you do not understand?
It just makes you look stupid....
Rat baits, and your either to ignorant to see it or you just like living in his ass...
Rat's/Ed's comment at 8:01 (which I believe is the one you were reacting to)didn't say a thing about Israel, Jews, Zionists, etc.
ReplyDeleteStocks have rallied.
ReplyDeleteThey have recovered.
There is nothing a GOP Congress would do, to recover the jobs that were exported, in the years that the GOP held the Congress, 1994 - 2006.
Wio, the words Jew, Jewish, Israel, Zionist, never appeared in the post you're objecting to.
ReplyDeleteNobody really knows where BHO was born, except maybe BHO, but the question is a good one, though I've argued all along, even if born in Hawaii, he's not a Natural Born Citizen, his father being Kenyan/English, the courts being too chicken to touch it.
ReplyDeleteThat fellow that was in the records department in Hawaii, and moved away, said he'd testify under oath, it was common knowledge there, that BHO wasn't born there.
heh
We've all been snookered, I believe.
Maybe Quirk can work up a horoscope on Barry.
Quirk? Are you capable of that?
Correction:
ReplyDeleteThe comment in question was at 8:11
Do we really have to do tit for tat? Huh? That crap can go on forever. Just let someone have the last word and drop it. Somebody, anybody, do the right thing.
whit said...
ReplyDeleteRat's/Ed's comment at 8:01 (which I believe is the one you were reacting to)didn't say a thing about Israel, Jews, Zionists, etc.
The comment was and is full of buzz words that refer to the Watchtower, skull and bones and Russell family (famous Jews hated by the Mel Gibson sorts)
Rat's post was and is a Jew Baiting attack, he is just acting cute using roundabout words...
just google: WATCHTOWER'S ROLE IN ILLUMINATI PLOT, Russell Company...
It's Jew baiting...
The State of Hawaii provided his birth certificate, bob.
ReplyDeleteTheir official representatives authenticated the Obama birth records. They have testified in courts to that effect.
They know and have so sworn, in Court.
Enough to satisfy Justice Roberts.
Whit
ReplyDeletejust delete rat and my posts....
keep it simple...
From Wiki, not a mention of Judaism in the entire thing
ReplyDeleteThe Russell Trust Association is the business name for the New Haven, Connecticut, based Skull and Bones society, incorporated in 1856.[1]
The Russell Trust was incorporated by William Huntington Russell as its president, and Daniel Coit Gilman as its first treasurer. Gilman later went on to become president of the University of California at Berkeley and Johns Hopkins University before leaving to become the first president of the Carnegie Foundation. Gilman also served as one of the first board members of the Russell Sage Foundation. Gilman's summer home in Maine is listed as a National Historic Landmark.
In 1943, by special act of the Connecticut state legislature, its trustees were granted an exemption from filing corporate reports with the Secretary of State, which is normally a requirement.
From 1978 onward, business of the Russell Trust Association was handled by its single trustee, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. partner John B. Madden. Madden started with Brown Brothers Harriman in 1946, under senior partner Prescott Bush, George H.W. Bush's father.
On its 2004 Form 990, the Russell Trust Association reported $3,205,143 in net assets.[citation needed]
The business and political network of the Skull and Bones was detailed by Hoover Institution scholar Antony C. Sutton in the exposé, America's Secret Establishment. Social organizations connected to the Russell Trust network include Deer Island Club, which also operates as a corporation.
There is just no way there is anything wrong with Rat's 08:11 post.
ReplyDeleteNo, just delete Wio's posts. They are the only ones that are offensive.
ReplyDelete