“This site is dedicated to preying on peoples vanity, ignorance, or loneliness, gaining their trust and betraying them without remorse.”

Monday, September 27, 2010

China has cost US 3.5 million jobs




Does anyone think that ignoring the obvious will make things better? Trade with China, subordinating our interests to theirs, has been a disaster for the US. We never needed anything from China. From stink bugs to stinky drywall the net effect of our trade with China is negative.

The trade deficit financed the Wall Street engineered mortgage disaster and the profligate deficit of the US government. Both groups should be relieved that Robespierre so discredited himself. It is well past time to scrap an economic model that does not work for the US.

If the extraction economies want free trade with China, good for them. Let them trade. We should opt out.

_______________________________


September 27, 2010
A Trade War With China?
By Robert Samuelson RCP

WASHINGTON-- No one familiar with the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 should relish the prospect of a trade war with China -- but that seems to be where we're headed and is probably where we should be headed. Although the Smoot-Hawley tariff did not cause the Great Depression, it contributed to its severity by provoking widespread retaliation. Confronting China's export subsidies risks a similar tit-for-tat cycle at a time when the global economic recovery is weak. This is a risk, unfortunately, we need to take.

In a decade, China has gone from a huge, poor nation to an economic colossus. Although its per capita income ($6,600 in 2009) is only one-seventh that of the United States ($46,400), the sheer size of its economy gives it a growing global influence. China passed Japan this year as the second-largest national economy. In 2009, it displaced Germany as the biggest exporter and also became the world's largest energy user.

The trouble is that China has never genuinely accepted the basic rules governing the world economy. China follows those rules when they suit its interests and rejects, modifies or ignores them when they don't. Every nation, including the United States, would like to do the same, and most have tried. What's different is that most other countries support the legitimacy of the rules -- often requiring the sacrifice of immediate economic self-interest -- and none is as big as China. Their departures from norms don't threaten the entire system.

China's worst abuse involves its undervalued currency and its promotion of export-led economic growth. The United States isn't the only victim. China's underpricing of exports and overpricing of imports hurt most trading nations, from Brazil to India. From 2006 to 2010, China's share of world exports jumped from 7 percent to 10 percent.

One remedy would be for China to revalue its currency, reducing the competitiveness of its exports. American presidents have urged this for years. The Chinese acknowledge that they need stronger domestic spending but seem willing to let the renminbi (RMB) appreciate only if it doesn't really hurt their exports. Thus, the appreciation of about 20 percent permitted from mid-2005 to mid-2008 was largely offset by higher productivity (aka, more efficiency) that lowered costs. China halted even this when the global economy crashed and has only recently permitted the currency to rise. In practice, the RMB has barely budged.

How much the RMB is undervalued and how many U.S. jobs have been lost are unclear. The Peterson Institute, a research group, says a revaluation of 20 percent would create 300,000 to 700,000 U.S. jobs over two to three years. Economist Robert Scott of the liberal Economic Policy Institute estimates that trade with China has cost 3.5 million jobs. This may be high, because it assumes that imports from China displace U.S. production when many may displace imports from other countries. But all estimates are large, though well short of the recession's total employment decline of 8.4 million.

If China won't revalue, the alternative is retaliation. This might start a trade war, because China might respond in kind, perhaps buying fewer Boeings and more Airbuses and substituting Brazilian soybeans for American. One proposal by Reps. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and Tim Murphy, R-Penn., would classify currency manipulation -- which China clearly practices -- as an export subsidy eligible for "countervailing duties" (tariffs offsetting the subsidy). This makes economic sense but might be ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization. A House committee last week approved this approach; the full House could pass it this week. Ideally, congressional action would convince China to negotiate a significant RMB revaluation.

Less ideally and more realistically would be a replay of Smoot-Hawley, just when the wobbly world economy doesn't need a fight between its two largest members. Economic nationalism, once unleashed here and there, might prove hard to control. But there's a big difference between then and now. Smoot-Hawley was blatantly protectionist. Dozens of tariffs increased; many countries retaliated. By contrast, American action today would aim at curbing Chinese protectionism.

The post-World War II trading system was built on the principle of mutual advantage, and that principle -- though often compromised -- has endured. China wants a trading system subordinated to its needs: ample export markets to support the jobs necessary to keep the Communist Party in power; captive sources for oil, foodstuffs and other essential raw materials; and technological superiority. Other countries win or lose depending on how well they serve China's interests.

The collision is between two concepts of the world order. As the old order's main architect and guardian, the United States faces a dreadful choice: resist Chinese ambitions and risk a trade war in which everyone loses; or do nothing and let China remake the trading system. The first would be dangerous; the second, potentially disastrous.




226 comments:

  1. I don't know what that is but it isn't bob from Moscow. I've been talking to the Cleaning Lady about Las Vegas.

    This place gets weirder and weirder.

    We need a bouncer.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Maybe he/she was trying to get this--

    Five Echos

    I don't much do economic issues anyway.

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  3. External internal dialogue?

    Explain that.

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  4. You are allowed to talk to yourself.

    You are allowed to answer yourself.

    You are not allowed to ask yourself, "What did you say?"

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  5. Talk about being bad for Business

    The multi-millionaire owner of the Segway company died in a freak accident yesterday when he rode one of the high-tech two-wheel machines off a cliff and into a river.
    Former miner Jimi Heselden, 62, plunged into the River Wharfe while riding around his West Yorkshire estate in Boston Spa on a rugged country version of the Segway.
    He bought the firm last December and was using one of the machines - which use gyroscopes to remain upright and are controlled by the direction in which the rider leans - to inspect the grounds of his property.



    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315518/Segway-owner-Jimi-Heselden-dies-riding-machines-cliff.html#ixzz10jgpPBZB

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  6. Blogger trish said...

    " "You're really not going to talk to me?"

    That wasn't my point.

    Until you learn to stop speaking in riddles, you're talking to yourself."



    Did trish really say that? TRISH??

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  7. Bring it On

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of the nation's chicken producers could tumble on Monday after China said it will slap a hefty tariff on U.S. chicken imports to combat what it says are unfairly low prices.

    The Chinese government said Sunday that its investigation found that U.S. chicken products are being sold at low prices which undermine the local market. New import duties ranging from 50.3 percent to as much as 105.4 percent will take effect Monday and last for five years.

    China was the largest importer of U.S. chicken in 2009 at $752.5 million but has been embroiled for months over duties imposed on U.S. chicken producers. The Chinese government said the new duties will replace ones imposed in February after preliminary results of the probe showed U.S. chicken was being sold at low prices -- a process called "dumping."

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  8. How do you figure I speak in riddles? Put up one comment that you feel needs deciphering and I'll explain. You put up more puzzling one liners then I can count. The only difference is I can figure them out.

    What do you expect me to say that has nothing to do with politics?

    Trish I have nothing to hide.

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  9. Nothing mysterious about Melody.

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  10. And which one of you nitwits took down my phone number

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  11. Quirk is probably the one who got it.

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  12. Don't ignore me, Trish. You can run but you can't hide.

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  13. "He should have walked."

    Off a cliff?





    See, I don't think of myself as speaking in riddles, Ash.

    I may be difficult to understand. That's something else, isn't it?

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  14. You have your external self, and your internal self. Your external self is the self everyone sees, and you see yourself that way too, to some extent. Then your internal self is not your social self, but more the way you really are, kinda. Melody might say it's the difference between your sun sign self and your moon sign self. These two can 'talk'. A dialogue.

    Then if your unconscious self, and very rarely, your higher Self, get in the act, you can have a round table discussion. An Elephant Bar, if you will. Which can get confusing.

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  15. Trish is always clear to me, except I can't seem to figure out who she is talking to sometimes, and when she starts using letters in capitals.

    Ash is usually just plain confused in a humorous harmless sort of way.

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  16. It just has me baffled that you think this. And in reality I could actually say the same thing to you. While you are so interested in who I am, I have on several occasions said, all you have to do is ask. And you never have. So maybe while I think it's me….Maybe it's not.

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  17. Heh, that number is missing.

    Maybe God took it down.

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  18. "Don't ignore me, Trish."

    Who's ignoring you? I'm right here.

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  19. You people are off to an insane start this morning, that's for sure.

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  20. Whit must have taken it down.


    Where's the Cleaning Lady. She makes sense.

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  21. "I have on several occasions said, all you have to do is ask."

    You need prompting?

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  22. The first comment of the thread is seeming prophetic, somehow, but I'm not sure how.


    Dad used to say sometimes, "I knew I was getting screwed, but couldn't figure out just how."

    He always said that at the most perfectly appropriate moments.

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  23. Well, if it's something specific you want to know then yes. Other than that I really don't understand what you want.

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  24. If I'm the id, and the Cleaning Lady is the ego, Whit is the superego.

    Meditate on that possibility in your consciousness, while I'm going back to bed.

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  25. What an interesting case these two ladies present. Anna, another couch, please.

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  26. And bring my cigar.

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  27. Yeah. I thought I recognized that phone number.

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  28. I am the nitwit that took down the phone number and I'll tell you why.

    At one time, somebody cloned the ID of a regular poster. It was done for malicious intent and some of the posts contained email addresses and telephone numbers.

    I have no way of evaluating what is real and surreal with every post. You Miss MLD have had frequent changes to your screen name. If someone found your number and posted it, I am sure you would not be happy.

    Likewise I will take down any post that tries to "Out" any of the posters on this blog. That is policy. Everyone here is entitled to their privacy.

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  29. I don't sugar coat anything…well maybe some things but that's just out of respect for the patrons here.

    I think I pretty much lay things on line without giving away my SS# and exactly what I look like. Which in the past I have used an avatar of me…in a bathing suit, sitting in a blowup pool baby pool on a deck in Avalon drinking martinis.

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  30. A clear case of ego inflation and transference, projection, and unfulfilled sexual fantasies on both parts.

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  31. Thanks for looking out for me obviously you didn't know what it meant.

    I wonder how many guys that have asked for my phone number in the past have actually dialed that number.

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  32. Where, oh where, is a pitcher of martinis when you need it?

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  33. I can't sleep, Las Vegas is looking better and better, city of people who deal in real things, like odds, the price of hookers, mortgages, how to avoid income tax.

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  34. I guess, Trish, we can finish this another time and let the guys get back to business.

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  35. In Avalon there is apple cider.

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  36. It's Hooter's for martinis.

    Though they aren't free.

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  37. "It's in Avalon."

    I see.

    Well, with that, I'm off to the store.



    Can I get you people - or you, person, with the multiple personality disorder (and I mean that in a totally nonjudgmental way) - anything?

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  38. When two women come out to fight, only one returns.

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  39. I want a bottle of vodka. Thanks.

    And ask Deuce to take that first down. It is not me.

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  40. "It is not me."

    Of course it's not. It's bob.

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  41. Know little about Bono but in general I've had kind of a positive opinion of the guy.

    See he may be in a little trouble.

    One of his charities was audited. Took in $15 million in 2008. Spent half of it on salaries, lunches, and Starbucks coffees. Out of the $15 million, only $200, ooo has been spent so far on the actual people that were siupposed to be helped.

    .

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  42. Told ya it did--

    Avalon (probably from the Welsh word afal, meaning apple; see Etymology below) is a legendary island featured in the Arthurian legend, famous for its beautiful apples. It first appears in Geoffrey of Monmouth's 1136 pseudohistorical account Historia Regum Britanniae ("The History of the Kings of Britain") as the place where King Arthur's sword Caliburn (Excalibur) was forged and later where Arthur is taken to recover from his wounds after the Battle of Camlann. As an "Isle of the Blessed" Avalon has parallels elsewhere in Indo-European mythology,[citation needed] in particular the Irish Tír na nÓg and the Greek Hesperides, also noted for its apples.

    It's Moscow for vodka. I used to drink a lot of vodka and orange juice, but not alone.

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  43. I was asking bob.

    Well for Christ sakes then let him answer it.

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  44. trish wrote:

    "See, I don't think of myself as speaking in riddles, Ash.

    I may be difficult to understand. That's something else, isn't it?"



    yes and no

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  45. Trish you are now making me laugh out loud.

    But if you are going to the store then…

    Vodka I prefer kettle one, beer I prefer yuengling, tequila I prefer the gold in that square bottle. If its wine I haven't decided yet. I'm also into three olives bubble its great in sprite.

    One veggie burger no cheese and a bottle of water. Carbonation bloats me and the dairy constipates me.

    Hm…I wonder which personality that one is.

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  46. "When two women come out to fight, only one returns."


    We are not fighting we are just discussing different personalities of my inner psyche.

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  47. Well, I have rum.

    It'll have to do.


    I do have veggie burgers on hand.

    I prefer the original Morningstar Farms, but Bocca's okay, too.

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  48. That is what I prefer, too. And FYI not that I'm a fast food junkie by far, I use to be, but Burger King is the only one that serves a veggie burger.

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  49. I think bob might be 'that woman.'

    Sad but not surprised to hear about the Bono charity. Other People's Money - that's the biggest cliff to fall off there is.

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  50. I was just told by my wife, you're looking like Einstein, without the brains.

    Translated, that means she wants me to get a haircut.

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  51. But getting the paper at the Albertson's quik stop, the girl said, "hiya beautiful Darlin'" like she always does.

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  52. My daughter said, she used to work at Burger King for a little while, some of them would spit in the food of those they didn't like. And Travis, her friend, got his brains blown out right at the drive in window, by a guy he befriended out of prison.

    Burger King gives me bad vibes.

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  53. Ok Einstein, out of Tom, Dick, and Harry, guess which one you are?

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  54. Well I'm not hairy, on the body, so I'm not Harry.

    Sometimes I kinda live in bedlam, so I might be Tom.

    I've been called a dick, right here, so I might be Dick.

    I'm really, 'that woman', though.

    Whoever she is.

    Whole conversation last two days makes me confused, like that guy in dueling banjos.

    I'm lost.

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  55. I used to wear an apron back in the days. I won't eat out. (Vegas buffets being the exception.)

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  56. And I'm having a four star day.

    How true this is--

    Your way of thinking doesn't seem to be appreciated

    And continuing--

    Center yourself and worry less about appreciation and more about what you would like to do. Others will run off after they cannot convince you of the rightness of their ways. Let them find out on their own "the rightness" of their ways. tonight: Spend time with a favorite person

    That means I got to call Dale and go to the Casino again.

    Here's Capricorn, surging on a five star--

    Your imagination could create some strange situations in your brain,if nothing else. Be aware of the distortion or slant you are putting on certain issues. Use your ingenuity to problem-solve. Tonight: Act like a kid again.

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  57. CL, where do you think the best place to eat is, in Vegas, best buffet? Got a favorite?

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  58. It's been too long. Management and staff have all turned around several times.

    What I did notice is that the quality is fairly consistent across price ranges and venues but the selection is constrained in the cheaper places. What is more important to me, in the current LV environment, is dining in a place free of screaming kids and obnoxious teenagers who've just popped their cherries or however they say it these days.

    The Vegas experience requires a tolerance for crowds.

    The TripAdviser website has been pretty reliable for me.

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  59. screaming kids and obnoxious teenagers

    That's what I've noticed. The mindless yoots have taken over.

    It's off to Wal-Mart, then Mr. Leon's Hair Saloon, where they train the next generation of hair beauty people, all women, for the cheapest and most inspected cut around.

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  60. By the way, before I go, the wife says the Wild Horse Roundup is going to be on in Ely at the time we go through.

    Anybody want a mustang?

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  61. That is a Very Important subject on which Deuce took the trouble to post, and all we've heard from the commentors so far is silly, high school level babbling about . . . . . . . . . . .. ... . . well, hell, I can't figure out What they're babbling about.

    You know, Yahoo has chat rooms for lonely, confused "tweeners." Maybe a few of us should check into that.

    Meantime, I'm going to call the VA, and schedule an appointment. I know I had to come down with some sort of Neurological Disease from reading this thread up to this point.

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  62. You know, Yahoo has chat rooms for lonely, confused "tweeners." Maybe a few of us should check into that.


    Rufus I'm so glad you used the term "us" when referring to using a chat room. Do you feel excluded?

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  63. And the way I figure it is if any of the patrons wanted to continue with the post we sure as hell wouldn't be stopping them.

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  64. You must have the afternoon shift.







    I'm aiming for a nap.

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  65. I have the all day shift. I Just got distracted.

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  66. Sanity no longer within my grasp.

    I'm all about the nap.

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  67. Oh, well, fuck. I was talking to rufus.

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  68. There goes that empty space between sentences again. I figured that's what you meant but I wasn't sure.

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  69. …about the nap and I definitely didn't think you were talking to Rufus.

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  70. WASHINGTON — Congress is deadlocked over virtually every major issue still pending this year, including key economic matters such as a detailed federal spending plan and extending Bush-era tax cuts. . .

    Gosh that one win by Scott Brown giving the GOP 41 votes in the Senate was really a big deal, wasn't it? Now Congress is "deadlocked".

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  71. "There goes that empty space between sentences again."

    Should I be conserving space?

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  72. I really don't give a fuck how many spaces are used. Someone said something last week about it. Probably needed something to complain about and that's all there was.

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  73. "I really don't give a fuck how many spaces are used."

    I'm relieved to hear it.

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  74. I just mentioned because I didn't scroll down far enough and didn't realize that you were going to take a nap. So my response was not in conjunction with yours.

    No biggy….

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  75. I'd make a comment about the topic at hand, but don't know much what to say, other than think we've exported way too many jobs.

    When you can't find anything to buy at Wal-Mart except imported stuff, something is wrong.

    Other than that, my emotions truly are being aroused by the mud fight between the Ladies, a little like I felt watching the first Ali/Liston fight, without the wager.

    Four or five of us came down from Moscow, wasn't on TV there, and just knocked on some young lady's door, explained our predicament, and she let us in. A more trusting time.

    Right now I call the ongoing fight even, five rounds apiece.

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  76. "I'm relieved to hear it."




    Now you can sleep peacefully.

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  77. "...my emotions truly are being aroused by the mud fight between the Ladies..."

    You know, if MLD hadn't shown up here, the Bar would be a very different place.

    Not a better one.

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  78. Bob-al-Harb: When you can't find anything to buy at Wal-Mart except imported stuff, something is wrong.

    I'm a Carhartt-only-ite and a Ford girl.

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  79. Carhartt

    I learn something every day.

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  80. Yeah, I just do not get that backward smiley face.

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  81. We would never mud fight, maybe a few vodkas in the face but never mud.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. Pull hair? Scratch eyes? Kick?

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  84. There is nothing new to say.

    I remember Laura Tyson and Bill Clinton repeating that NAFTA would result in two million 'new and better' (read: service) jobs, which would compensate for the loss of low level exported work.

    The actual number, derived from an academic study, was 200,000. Clinton added a zero, presumably by mistake, and thus history was written.

    Others disagree, on this board even, but my opinion is that NAFTA was premature. The business community pressured Reagan for this agreement but got no traction until Clinton.

    I have to go but what to do on the employment front? Boy that's a hard one - not. It's another issue of failure to execute, not failure of imagination and/or feasibility in problem-solving.

    I like Roubini's idea of a 2-yr payroll tax holiday.

    I like the idea of CTL - labor intensive, requires engineering, planning, construction. In fact the industry is nearly identical to residential housing in terms of the required planning and labor force. Why doesn't Beazer get into it? Pay for it using the scheme developed in Tuscon that allows residential power end users a fixed delivery rate in exchange for front-end construction cost.

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  85. ”…structural unemployment isn’t a real problem, it’s an excuse — a reason not to act on America’s problems at a time when action is desperately needed.”

    I have now officially gone round the bend, putting up quotes by that flaming dick Paul Krugman. The only way I can justify it in my own mind is that what he is saying is so obvious that it shouldn’t even need to be said.

    I predicted we would soon be hearing either economists or politicians claiming that high unemployment rates had become a “structural problem”; however, I didn’t believe it would come this soon.

    ”Who are these wise heads I’m talking about? The most widely quoted figure is Narayana Kocherlakota, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who has attracted a lot of attention by insisting that dealing with high unemployment isn’t a Fed responsibility: “Firms have jobs, but can’t find appropriate workers. The workers want to work, but can’t find appropriate jobs,” he asserts, concluding that “It is hard to see how the Fed can do much to cure this problem.”

    Now, the Minneapolis Fed is known for its conservative outlook, and claims that unemployment is mainly structural do tend to come from the right of the political spectrum. But some people on the other side of the aisle say similar things. For example, former President Bill Clinton recently told an interviewer that unemployment remained high because “people don’t have the job skills for the jobs that are open.”


    All I can say is that they are bigger dicks than Krugman and that is saying a lot.


    CYA Excuses

    .

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  86. To the post, I have yet to hear a convincing argument that the benefits of the the trade with China has not been offset with real negative impact to the welfare, economy and security of the USA.

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  87. In a long drawn out fight like this, where there is no limit to the rounds, it's hard to bet on the vegetarian, because, as Joseph Campbell says, in the realm of nature the grazers are always the lesser forms, peaceful and docile compared to their carnivorous cousins. On the other hand Melody has a fierce temperament, passed on to her daughter, by her own report, and is in great shape, and a will to trample both men and women under her fancy boots. If I were in the respective corners, I'd advise Melody to eat some meat during the rounds, and Trish to go for the jugular.

    The winner of this contest is seriously in doubt.

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  88. How can you have a country with 300,000,000 people and aprox 5000 universities and four year colleges in North America, and not have enough people to fill open positions? Pure bullshit.

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  89. Said it before and say it again. Close 75% of all the law schools. That is structural change you can believe in that will represent some of the best money never spent.

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  90. "...and Trish to go for the jugular."

    Yech. No.

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  91. Can you have free trade in the world when only one country practices it?

    "With Chinese economic policy now serving as a model for other Asian countries, Japan was faced with a stark choice: back United States criticisms that China is artificially keeping down the value of its currency, the renminbi, or emulate China’s approach. It is a sign of the times that Japan chose to follow China at the cost of irritating America.

    Japan’s action suggests that, in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the dominance of free-market thinking in international economic management is over. Washington must understand this, or find itself constantly outmaneuvered in dealings with the rest of the world. Instead of obsessing over China’s currency manipulation as if it were a unique exception in a world of untrammeled market forces, the United States must adapt to an environment where exchange rates and trade imbalances are managed consciously and have become a legitimate subject for debate in international forums like the Group of 20.


    Adapt or Die

    Japan has already shown it is the weak sister of Asia when it bowed to Chinese economic pressure and released that boat captain a couple of days ago. They are also the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. What they do matters.

    We have seen that its the bucks that count when Britain/Scotland released the Lockerbie Bomber in order to secure Libyan oil contracts.

    As noted by Samuelson in Deuce's initial post, fighting back may be dangerous but the US has little choice.

    .

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  92. I'd disagree with that about closing the law schools, though I understand the sentiments.

    The crappy lawsuits would still be there, they are enabled by legislation.

    The greater number of lawyers at least gives the average person a greater chance of getting something approaching justice.

    Besides, this is America, if you want to go to law school, you ought to be able to do so.

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  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  94. I think this was a very productive day don't you Trish?

    We have learned…well…um…the bar wouldn't be the same without me, we both like veggie burgers or at least you have them to serve when I visit and when all else fails rum will do it.

    Peace out.

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  95. Least you're not laughing for hours about some poor bastard in an iron lung today.

    And that looks nothing like myself, though girls like that hit on me all the time, to the point it gets irksome.

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  96. "I think this was a very productive day don't you Trish?"

    : )

    No.

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  97. First, the "Good" News. This discussion, for those of you not old enough to remember, comes about during/after ALL Recessions. Bar None. Zip. Zippola. Nada.

    Now, the "Bad" News: This time there might be something to it. China's pushing us mighty hard. And, it's going to get Harder.

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  98. You've got to be Very, Very careful supporting Republicans during/after a Recession. Of course, nowadays, you have to strain mighty hard to "Find" a Republican during the Good Times. They've been morphing into Democrats at a breathtaking rate.

    The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs helped (greatly) in turning a crash, and recession, into a full-blown, world-class Depression. Starting "Trade Wars" is not something to take lightly.

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  99. And that looks nothing like myself

    Actually, that's the reason I pulled the post down.

    You were in picture #10 but the whole stream from the Post got linked.

    .

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  100. Starting "Trade Wars" is not something to take lightly.

    It's that or talk about veggie-burgers.

    I tried to get into the flow of the previous conversation but kept getting lost.

    The only part I got was the bug on the thigh (but then I always was a leg man.)

    .

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  101. Rufus. I was for free trade, but it was also supposed to be about fair trade. That is not going to happen with China. It is nothing personal with them. That is how they deal with each other.

    There is nothing we need from China. We have to revert to a policy of import replacement. it would be very stimulative to the US economy and should be done intentionally on a small scale.

    We should do it in conjunction with the extraction economies in all of the Americas.

    If the Chinese want to play hardball by dumping our bonds, send them a check and buy them all back. See how that works for them.

    I have been reading everywhere that the US is taking in 15% of GNP, then 15% is the natural level for spending. Add your 2% and the number for all government spending is 17%. Live with it.

    ReplyDelete
  102. We have no trade war with China and they have accumulated foreign reserves of $2.5 trillion.

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  103. Hell, Deuce, I didn't say I had the answer. :)

    I think trade with China is hard, but, overall, it's a good thing. You just have to keep at them, constantly.

    The action the House Panel is taking is a necessary thing. It's a threat you don't want to have to live up to, but it's a threat that you Have To Be Willing to carry through on.

    The "good" news: the Chinese have allowed their yuan to accelerate in it's strengthening in the last few days.

    The "bad" news: They just laid a shot across our bow with a 100% tariff on imported chickens (don't laugh, ag products are a big part of our trade with China.)

    China's kind of like the average marriage to a woman with a rich father - a lot of work, but probably "worth it."

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  104. Now that I've retired I look back at the amount of time I wasted 'working' and wonder why. Maybe the French know more than we do.


    'Ladurie notes that for the village's shepherds, in particular, wealth was not measured in terms of money, property, or possessions. Instead, a rich life was one filled with travel and daydreaming, conversations and meals with friends. The shepherd, exempt entirely from feudal and religious oppression, was the freest of men in Montaillou. Sheep equaled freedom: A shepherd, Ladurie writes, would never "trade that liberty for the plate of gritty lentils often held out to him by friends and employers [in order to] settle down."

    But even those serving up the lentils -- the local farmers and artisans of Montaillou -- appreciated those same liberties. They willingly worked to live, but most unwillingly lived to work. Rather than devoting themselves to hammering out a better plow or plowing a better field, the peasants of Montaillou did what was necessary to keep food on their table, but nothing more. Instead, they were suckers for lounging on a bench with a friend on a sunny day or sitting in front of a fire with a lover or spouse at night, exchanging stories while picking out lice. This, it seems, was the extent of their multitasking. In a word, Ladurie concludes, "Hard work did not rate very high in their scale of values."


    Maybe the French Aren't All That Bad After All

    Simplify. Simplify.

    Thoreau.

    Also,

    It is not enough to be industrious; so are the ants. What are you industrious about?


    I need a vacation. Or a nap.

    .

    .

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  105. Look, the long-term problem isn't, necessarily, our "bi-lateral" trade with China; It's probably more the fact that we have to Compete with them for Trade with "Other" nations.

    Reality bats last. If we are going to continue having the highest living standards of any large country in the world we're going to have to be "More Productive" than all the other Large countries.

    That's where the disconnect is. We can't possibly pay people enough for an American standard of living if all they are going to do is stand on an assembly line doing the same thing the Chinese, or Vietnamese will do for $2.00/hr.

    "Our" assembly line worker will have to be capable of programming, operating, and maintaining the computerized systems that "Displace" 20, or 30 Asian employees.

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  106. I don't worry/think too much about their vaunted $2.5 Trillion (other than remind people that some of the previous rules might not apply quite so rigorously FOR AWHILE.)

    Them Chinee ain't stupid people. They know that the reason the Government has $2.5 T is that "They Don't have $2.5 T."

    Wages Are going Up in China. Slowly, to be sure; but, they Are going Up.

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  107. Blogger Deuce said...

    " To the post, I have yet to hear a convincing argument that the benefits of the the trade with China has not been offset with real negative impact to the welfare, economy and security of the USA."

    Rufus, just above, made a good point about productivity. As a consumer I am certainly enjoying the pricing on most goods out of Asia. Can you imagine what an iPhone would cost manufactured in America? Your Big Screen TV?

    They also represent a HUGE market over there.

    re- currency manipulation

    "World is in ‘currency war:’ Brazil


    The world is in an “international currency war” as governments manipulate their currencies’ value to improve their export competitiveness, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on Monday.

    snip

    We’re in the midst of an international currency war,” Mr. Mantega said. “This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness.”

    “The advanced countries are seeking to devalue their currencies,” he said, mentioning the United States, Europe and Japan in the context of what he portrayed as an intensifying trade competition."

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/world-is-in-currency-war-brazil/article1728151/?cmpid=rss1



    Has anyone noticed the steady decline in the value of the US dollar against most other currencies over the last, say, 5 years? I have.

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  108. I think we have to stay in the game with the Chinese, but we can't play by "little league" rules. When they get belligerent we have to be willing to deliver the "Bob Gibson Special." The High-Hard one. It's the only game they're willing to play, so it's the one we've gotta play.

    Sobbing like weak-sisters, and "going home" would be a lousy decision. It's terrible sitting at home when the other kids are "out playing."

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  109. ironically the Chinese have not devalued vis a vis the US but rather they have pegged to the US keeping the exchange rate stable. It is the US seeking to devalue.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Oh, and I used Bob Gibson for a reason. He didn't intend to "brush you back." He threw BEHIND Your head. That way when you jumped back he nailed you.

    He had Every Intention of KNOCKING you on your ass. If you got a concussion, tough shit. He was makin' a living.

    ReplyDelete
  111. ...other than remind people that some of the previous rules might not apply quite so rigorously FOR AWHILE.)


    Thoreau:

    "Any fool can make a rule
    And any fool will mind it."



    .

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  112. That's a silly argument, Ash. We allow our currency to Float against all currencies.

    They pegged their currency to ours At A Low Level, and are attempting to keep it there.

    We can't allow them to keep doing it. They're too big, now. They would just slowly "knock off" our industries, one by one.

    Remember, their industries are many (most) times operating with free capital from loans that they are Never expected to Pay Back.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Oh, and I used Bob Gibson for a reason.

    He still lost to the Tigers in the World Series.


    .

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  114. In the game of trade war with China how would you propose sending the "Bob Gibson Special." their way?

    ReplyDelete
  115. Thanks, only, to the worst call in the history of Major League Baseball, by a drunken gambler umpiring first base.

    ReplyDelete
  116. (I realize the Tigers comment wasn't pertinent. I just wanted to get it in there.)


    .

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  117. An immediate 50% Tariff on all their goods. With the understanding that it will come off "incrementally" as they allow the Yuan to float. For Starters.

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  118. Face it Rufus, Mickey Lolich was the better pitcher in that series.

    And now you are making up another silly rule. That the 'losers' get to rewrite history.

    .

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  119. Yeah, good shot. I especially didn't like it, it bein' "True, an all."

    :)

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  120. Mickey Lolich? Was he a baseball player? A Pitcher?

    Hmm.

    Musta played for Detroit, or somethin'. :)


    That was a real heartbreak series for Cardinal fans. Heartbreak, I tells ya.

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  121. as you know rufus the free floating currency is a tad more complex then simply a free floating currency. Yes, they have pegged the value of the RMB and they've been forced to buy huge truckloads of US dollars to maintain that peg. There is also a more technical way they maintain the peg but I can't remember what it was (I read about it just recently). Maybe it was that there is no open market to even buy RMB - you've got to do it through the Bank of China...

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  122. Yeah, that's an important point, Ash. Their economy is getting too big for the games (currency-wise) that they're playing. They know they can't keep it up forever (although the Japanese had a good, long run at it,) but they're going to "bugger" us all they can in the meantime.

    If we don't do something we might be "tits-up" before nature takes its course.

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  123. Prosecutor in failed Ted Stevens corruption case kills self

    The death of Nicholas Marsh, one of the lead prosecutors in former Sen. Ted Stevens' 2008 corruption trial, was announced by the Justice Department. Marsh, along with other members of the prosecution team, was under investigation for misconduct in the case, which was dismissed at the request of the Obama administration.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Ash said...
    Blogger trish said...

    " "You're really not going to talk to me?"

    That wasn't my point.

    Until you learn to stop speaking in riddles, you're talking to yourself."



    Did trish really say that? TRISH??

    ---

    Ahfuckingmen!

    ReplyDelete
  125. I remember, years ago, going to China and RMB was pegged roughly where it was now but it was worth way less - you could get a mucho better exchange rate on the black market - 20 to 1 vs. 6 to 1 if memory serves.

    ReplyDelete
  126. At least those cold dead tits will be on display here, Rufus.

    The last bastion of showing it as it is.

    ReplyDelete
  127. "Cold Dead Tits"


    It just seems like such a waste, doesn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  128. I've recently heard from a Steelman and a lady in the textile industry, both claimed they could compete with the Chicoms if artificial subsidies (apart from currency manipulation) were eliminated.

    ReplyDelete
  129. A sad ravage of economic warfare, Rufus.
    In the meantime, it's bottoms up at the bar and in many bedrooms.

    ReplyDelete
  130. I don't doubt that, Doug. People just don't realize how "UnCapitalistic" their "Capitalism" really is.

    And, anyone that thinks a Nation can be a Great, Secure Nation, and at the same time give up their Steel, Textile, Agriculture, Energy Industries is a Dope.

    Of course, at the same time you can't protect your industries to the extent that they quit "sweating it," either.

    Bizness is Hard.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Yep, it's getting close to 5:00. A Bud Light is sounding pretty good right now.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Mon Sep 27, 04:42:00 PM EDT

    ah, shucks, that got to my heart.

    Hell, Quirk, fuck it, you want to go to Vegas with my son and myself?

    Beats napping and blogging.

    Think, Quirk, you can recapture your youth! Get a suntan. Meet girls that do more than talk, talk, talk.

    You can wander around the golf courses, wear a gold chain around your neck, look AT THE STARS! No better stars than in Nevada. Work on the charts. Plenty of suckers in Vegas need a reading. Buffet to your hearts delight, drink your guts out, smoke a little weed.

    A day in Twin Falls, three in Ely, a week or ten in Vegas, slow trip home, if not arrested.

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  133. I'll introduce you to my old girl friend, on her fifth marriage. She lives right on a golf course. The last husband was two doors down. Kinda a gated community del fuck. She don't just talk about it. Not a husband she hasn't cheated on with multiplicity. A true expert on pre-nuptial agreements, she can show you the town. Teach you how to make your way up in the world.

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  134. A body and a face to to light up heaven. A heart as cold as Alaska. Schemes more than Livia. I dodged that bullet, I'll put the target on your back. She'll listen to your horoscope speel, she's heard it all, all she demands is you be damned good. She'll get you out of your doldrums, though I can't promise your life would be simplified.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Or, if that don't appeal, you can still find an old rancher around, once in while. Sit on a bench, talk about the good old days. Was good, now heap shit.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Thanks Bob.

    I appreciate the offer. However, I'm still not completely convinced you aren't one of those internet hustlers trying to lure a young guy like me out west and then force me to work the streets.

    All that talk about walking around in a cold stream with no underwear was a little creepy.

    And how do I know you even have a son?

    .

    ReplyDelete
  137. Although I did like that "heart as cold as Alaska" part.


    .

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  138. Besides, I don't think I'm old enough to go to Las Vegas.

    The last time I went, me and my brother had to split a $3200 bar bill.

    .

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  139. ah, grrr, as a Catholic, you got to take some things on faith.

    And to think, I could have introduced you, not only to the girlfriend, but to the ape at Circus Circus too, if he's still alive, and Circus Circus is still standing.

    ReplyDelete
  140. I'm up for this trip, I feel an attack of priapism coming on, touched off by the terazosin.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Re: Quirk

    [watching Dr. Gonzo leave]
    Raoul Duke: There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.


    From Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

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  142. My wife, who kinda likes Hunter S. Thompson, was telling me about his suicide, in the bunker.

    Seems two shots rang out.

    "You mean it could have been a murder?", I ask.

    No, she explains, often men who shoot themselves let off a first shot into the dirt or the sky, to kinda calm the nerves. Seems that's actually a fact too, little known.

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  143. [at a bizarre circus-themed casino]
    Raoul Duke: Bazooko's Circus is what the whole hep world would be doing Saturday nights if the Nazis had won the war. This was the Sixth Reich.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Clown Barker: Step right up and shoot the pasties off the nipples of a ten foot bull dyke! Win a cotton candy goat!

    ReplyDelete
  145. Raoul Duke: We are all wired into a survival trip now. No more of the speed that fueled that 60's. That was the fatal flaw in Tim Leary's trip. He crashed around America selling "consciousness expansion" without ever giving a thought to the grim meat-hook realities that were lying in wait for all the people who took him seriously... All those pathetically eager acid freaks who thought they could buy Peace and Understanding for three bucks a hit. But their loss and failure is ours too. What Leary took down with him was the central illusion of a whole life-style that he helped create... a generation of permanent cripples, failed seekers, who never understood the essential old-mystic fallacy of the Acid Culture: the desperate assumption that somebody... or at least some force - is tending the light at the end of the tunnel.

    ReplyDelete
  146. I think maybe I'll stay home, myself.

    ReplyDelete
  147. It's sounding better and better Bob.

    However, if I got a couple drinks in me, I might break down and tell you that your word 'frienemy' wasn't really all that original.

    Rashida Jones has a comic book called Frenemy of the State about a Paris-Hilton type socialite who is also a spy.

    I wouldn't want to burst your bubble so I better not go.

    .

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  148. Steady my nerves, Quirk, I'm vacillating.


    Rashida Jones has a comic book called Frenemy of the State about a Paris-Hilton type socialite who is also a spy.

    You never told me that.

    But they spelled it wrong, so I win anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Just keep thinking of that Clown Barker Bobbo.

    .

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  150. I could barely make it to three minutes without being nauseated.

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  151. It may be too late for you poor people back east, but both Bristol Palin and Florence Henderson are on Dancing With Stars tonight 8pm my time.

    And I was wrong when last week I reported they both had gotten a 16 our of 30. Actually both got an 18 out of 30, a serious misreporting on my part.

    ReplyDelete
  152. That's a little hard to take alright.

    I used to climb up my grain bins on a little ladder on the outside. That was a little hard to take too, though I never really had any problem.

    Just look up.

    And remember Albert Heim.

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  153. One wonders how Jack climbed that beanstalk, just kept on growing.

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  154. There should have been a vertigo scene in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, would have fit right in.

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  155. On the subject of Mr Abbas going to the Arab League for a meeting on the matter, Lieberman said: "If the Arab League is seeking challenges to deal with, there are many in the Arab world. Hundreds of people are killed each week in terrorist attacks, and poverty and despair cry out to the heavens."

    Meanwhile, US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell is traveling to the region for urgent talks on settlement building.

    Saying he welcomed Palestinian restraint in not formally breaking off peace talks, he said he would visit the Mideast in an effort aimed at salvaging the US-brokered Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.


    West Bank

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  156. You're fine, Melody, not unwell, don't worry about yourself so.

    ReplyDelete
  157. And you've still got your Adrenalin.

    Damn Terazosin.


    I've been thinking of shooting myself up with my bee sting kits, kinda jack up the Adrenalin a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Dangerous subject, Sam, may start a major fight.

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  159. My son has some National Park spotted outside of Ely somewhere he wants to go check out. And a couple of other things or places of interest. I want to see the wild horses.

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  160. Early Nevada, among other critters, had some type of giant ground sloth living there.

    But I can't find the list I had some months back of the early critters.

    Quite awesome, though.

    ReplyDelete
  161. I guess I'll save the bee stings kits for Vegas though, in case I need a major boost upwards to get the hell out of there. One must always think ahead.


    Dancing time.....

    ReplyDelete
  162. A wealthy British businessman who owns the company that makes the two-wheeled Segway has been found dead in a river in northern England after apparently falling off a cliff on one of the vehicles, police said on Monday.

    ...

    Mobile Entertainment, which has offered Segway tours along the Mississippi River for the past seven years, has had more than 40,000 customers - most of them new to Segway - ride the device without any serious injuries, owner Bill Neuenschwander told The Associated Press.

    ...

    "People get it right away," he said. "This product is perfectly safe when people respect its limitations."


    Fell Off Cliff

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  163. Gee, where did everyone go?











    It was a hell of a nap.

    ReplyDelete
  164. I got to tell you.... the fix was in.

    22!! NOOOOO WAAAAY

    Much as I like Bristol Palin.

    22 out of 30, highest score of the night, I think.

    Well done, but no vaarrooooom.

    I told my wife, I told, I told, I told her, it's a payola craparoo, just like Antique Road Show.

    The Republican National Committee is behind this farce somewhere.

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  165. "I told my wife, I told, I told, I told her, it's a payola craparoo, just like Antique Road Show."

    Funny you should say that.

    ReplyDelete
  166. It was a hell of a nap.

    Well, you were plumb tuckered after a hell of a fight.

    But you must get your rest tonight, as well. The Battle begins again tomorrow.

    Concentrate on attack, attack, attack, keep her on the defensive, strike at every opening.

    This is just my neutral advice. I have no favorite in the issue.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Well, hell, did you see that? Even one of the judges said there was no varoom there.

    Then he goes and votes her an 8.

    I could damn near keep up with her.

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  168. And there's Sarah Palin in the audience, front row, center.

    If that isn't undue pressure on the judges, I don't know what is.

    They had to take the money.

    ReplyDelete
  169. "Well, you were plumb tuckered after a hell of a fight."

    No, I had a lot of rum and could barely find my way to bed.

    But it was, what, about five hours of sleep?

    Not bad.

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  170. You need to be sharp, and focused, tomorrow.

    ----


    It could have been the Tea Party that made the payoff.

    Just a matter of whoever writes the biggest check.

    Might have been some Alaska oil revenue money involved, who knows for sure.

    But the fix was definitely in. If you missed it, you can go to Dancing With The Stars, or UTube.

    Disgusting.

    ReplyDelete
  171. You haven't been Bob-al-Harb since BC days.

    If indeed you are that Bob.

    So many bobs.

    So, so many.

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  172. "You need to be sharp, and focused, tomorrow."

    Sharp and focused.

    My middle names.

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  173. I thought Miss T was hinting around I should be using that.

    There are too many bobs, I grant.

    I tell you, I am disgusted, nay, outraged, at the whole rancid affair. What has happened to our nation, when filthy lucre can buy a wholesome dance contest?

    The rot is deeper than even I imagined.

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  174. That's what that rum will do.

    Repeat after me--


    SHARP AND FOCUSED


    You can't drink your way to victory.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Bob, I have an incredibly difficult time believing you watch Dancing With The Stars.

    ReplyDelete
  176. "You can't drink your way to victory."

    Whatever gave you the idea that I had that in mind?

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  177. Like Livia in I, Claudius, I say, get in there and give us your guts. There will be sweet meats and dancing boys for the winner.

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  178. I used to like to dance, was never much good at it. The wife likes the show. They are good dancers. It's a real art, done right. Spanish dancers are wonderful, what with that click, click and all that. I enjoy it.

    ReplyDelete
  179. "I used to like to dance..."

    I've never liked it.

    ReplyDelete
  180. "There will be sweet meats and dancing boys for the winner."

    And that's just plain fucking weird.

    ReplyDelete
  181. Joint US-South Korean anti-submarine naval exercises designed to deter the North got under way Monday in the Yellow Sea.

    "About 1700 South Korean and US navy forces are involved in submarine detection training and high-level combat training," said a spokesman for Seoul's South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    About 10 ships in total plus surveillance planes are taking part in the five-day drill, which the North has denounced as a preparation for invasion.


    Joint Exercises

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