“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."
Well, I just read a book "Bio-Centrism" which took off on the old Berkeley, Hume, Kant, Schopenhauer disputes that I love. Rufii's dick may well be the center of HIS world.
Who are the Falun Gong and Why Does China Persecute Them?
"The Government of China recognizes five beliefs and bans all others, including Falun Gong. Falun Gong is a modern update and blending of two religions China does recognize - Taoism and Buddhism, combined with a simple set of exercises. Of all the banned beliefs, none is treated worse than Falun Gong, banned in July 1999..."
A little bit of Canadiana which might suggest a possible future in the US?
"The chief of the navy’s order to dock ships because of a budget squeeze has been overruled because it embarrassed Defence Minister Peter MacKay.
snip
The Conservatives have been at pains to insist budget cuts are not squeezing military operations, and in this, the Canadian navy’s centennial year, the docking of ships because of a money crunch embarrassed the government. Mr. MacKay argued the navy had received $200-million more this year than last, but big-money spending plans to update or buy ships to replace old equipment meant money is tight.
Gen. Natynczyk said there will now be a review to see how where the military can find some money so it can float the fleet of Kingston-class ships, the all-purpose, highly-manoeuverable patrol and mine-sweeping boats that protect Canadian coasts. That money might be found by squeezing anywhere in the military, not just the navy, he said. "
Pat Buchanan, everyone's favorite MSNBC pundit, wondered in his syndicated column this week why Democratic presidents don't nominate white Christians to the Supreme Court anymore.
"If Kagan is confirmed, Jews, who represent less than 2 percent of the U.S. population, will have 33 percent of the Supreme Court seats," Buchanan wrote. "Is this the Democrats' idea of diversity?"
"WASHINGTON — House lawmakers traveling on official business will be sitting back with the tourists and spending their own money on souvenirs under new rules announced by Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday...
"The Wall Street Journal, in a study of military travel documents, said lawmakers took more than 230 trips on Air Force planes between Oct. 1, 2007 and Sept. 30, 2009, at an average cost of more than $500,000 a trip...
"Pelosi reminded committee chairmen that the availability of Pentagon aircraft to support congressional travel "is extremely limited" and that, depending on the type of the plane, a minimum and bipartisan number of members will be required...
Google Says It Inadvertently Collected Personal Data By BRAD STONE
On Friday, Google made a stunning admission: for over three years, it has inadvertently collected snippets of private information that people send over unencrypted wireless networks.
Teacher apologizes for recorded beating of student
"HOUSTON — A teacher who was recorded on cell phone video beating a student apologized Friday, saying she was "without excuse" for the attack on the 13-year-old.
"Science teacher Sheri Lynn Davis, who was fired by the charter school this week over the attack, said she regrets what happened and would act much differently if given the opportunity..."
Not me personally. Had I, most of you would have been dead a long time ago.
I saw that it raised quite the *unexpected* ruckus at Balloon Juice, Ash.
But there's plenty of legal precedent for it and what's the difference between having him taken out by a sniper, on the one hand, and doing it the new-fangled way, on the other?
John Cole stated that he'd have no problem were the asshole killed in a military operation. Well, I hate to break it to John, but a lot of the actions that come under covert ops are, in fact, carried out by the military.
I realized that, Ash. Obviously my thoughts were elsewhere.
Personally, I take it for granted that everything of mine that goes out into the ether is subject to capture by some ubiquitous entity or others. Perhaps many, various and sundry.
While I know little of the details of surveillance in the US I remember a blurb about Federal contracting mechanisms being unaware that many applying, and receiving, Federal contracts were delinquent on payments to the Federal government. There certainly could be great security value in monitoring the huge databases of information available through the telecommunication industry. Similarly there could be much security gained through limiting the distribution of lethal weapons (guns) amongst the populace (particularly in urban areas) yet the constitution reigns supreme in that area.
desert rat said... Let's see, misdirection proved, Israel is a Club Med, for the Eurotrash.
No, I proved that the world voted Israel a top tourist destination. Your hostility at world travelers speaks volumes of your jealousy of those that can afford to travel.
Rat: Then he proved that the Israeli counts every toothpick and kotex that they allow into Gaza.
A complete occupation, down to the squares of toilet paper allowed into the camp.
Could have been interesting, if I'd had read it all. Which I did not.
Here Rat proves why he and Eric Holder are cut from the same cloth. He doesnt read the post and yet he can judge it...
The point that Rat made was that the Gaza strip was "A fate worse than death, living under foreign occupation, in the refugee camp squalor of Gaza."
So when we PROVE that Gaza is in fact not a fate worse than death, he now counters that Israel providing millions of tons of food, fuel and medical treatment is a "complete occupation"
Funny, I dont remember any other "occupied" population getting kotex, toothpicks and Toliet Paper from the evil, fate worse than death, occupiers...
Notice how facts just get in the way for Rat, he glosses over the thousands of Gazans that go to Israel for medical treatment and ignores the fact that EGYPT shares a border wth Gaza and it actually splits a town in half.. (rafah)
Rat continues" Ever more proof of the Israeli violations of the Geneva Accords, provided by the Friend of Isreal.
And in the end, Rat has his fantasy that "Isreal" is evil since they provide aid...
I wonder what would be the increase in criminal violation if "ISRAEL" would tell the palestinians to go knock on Egypt's door?
I would also point out, Rat ignores the violence that Hamas does to it's own people, women, gays, christians and even Fatah...
In the end... Rat is a Jew hating, Israel hating, Zionist hating bigot, who has issues with tourists that have more money than him...
Let us all not forget, Rat is a self confessed criminal. So I doubt if he even has the right to vote in America.
Sometimes, when you're skimming around, you run into a gem. You need to read this, at least, two, or three, times before it starts to sink in.
JG: Let's push a bit deeper on the CBO forecasts. They publish a baseline set of projections. One of those projections holds the economy will return to a normal high-employment level with low inflation over the next 10 years. If true, that would be wonderful news. Go down a few lines and they also have the short-term interest rate going up to 5 percent. It's that short-term interest rate combined with that low inflation rate that allows them to generate, quite mechanically, these enormous future deficit forecasts. And those forecasts are driven partially by the assumption that health-care costs will rise forever at a faster rate than everything else and by interest payments on the debt will hit 20 or 25 percent of GDP.
At this point, the whole thing is completely incoherent. You cannot write checks to 20 percent to anybody without that money entering the economy and increasing employment and inflation. And if it does that, then debt-to-GDP has to be lower, because inflation figures into how much debt we have. These numbers need to come together in a coherent story, and the CBO's forecast does not give us a coherent story. So everything that is said that is based on the CBO's baseline is, strictly speaking, nonsense.
EK: But couldn't there be a space between the CBO being totally correct and the debt not being a problem? It seems certain, for instance, that health-care costs will continue to rise faster than other sectors of the economy.
JG: No, it's not reasonable. Share of health-care cost would rise as part of total GDP and the inflation would rise to be nearer to what the rate of health-care inflation is. And if health care does get that expensive, and we're paying 30 percent of GDP while everyone else is paying 12 percent, we could buy Paris and all the doctors and just move our elderly there.
EK: But putting inflation aside, the gap between spending and revenues won't have other ill effects?
JG: Is there any terrible consequence because we haven't prefunded the defense budget? No. There's only one budget and one borrowing authority and all that matters is what that authority pays. Say I'm the federal government and I wish to pay you, Ezra Klein, a billion dollars to build an aircraft carrier. I put money in your bank account for that. Did the Federal Reserve look into that? Did the IRS sign off on it? Government does not need money to spend just as a bowling alley does not run out of points.
What people worry about is that the federal government won't be able to sell bonds. But there can never be a problem for the federal government selling bonds. It goes the other way. The government's spending creates the bank's demand for bonds, because they want a higher return on the money that the government is putting into the economy. My father said this process is so simple that the mind recoils from it.
EK: What are the policy implications of this view?
JG: It says that we should be focusing on real problems and not fake ones. We have serious problems. Unemployment is at 10 percent. if we got busy and worked out things for the unemployed to do, we'd be much better off. And we can certainly afford it. We have an impending energy crisis and a climate crisis. We could spend a generation fixing those problems in a way that would rebuild our country, too. On the tax side, what you want to do is reverse the burden on working people. Since the beginning of the crisis, I've supported a payroll tax holiday so everyone gets an increase in their after-tax earnings so they can pay down their mortgages, which would be a good thing. You also want to encourage rich people to recycle their money, which is why I support the estate tax, which has accounted for an enormous number of our great universities and nonprofits and philanthropic organizations. That's one difference between us and Europe.
EK: That does it for my questions, I think.
JG: I have one more answer, though! Since the 1790s, how often has the federal government not run a deficit? Six short periods, all leading to recession. Why? Because the government needs to run a deficit, it's the only way to inject financial resources into the economy. If you're not running a deficit, it's draining the pockets of the private sector. I was at a meeting in Cambridge last month where the managing director of the IMF said he was against deficits but in favor of saving, but they're exactly the same thing! A government deficit means more money in private pockets.
The way people suggest they can cut spending without cutting activity is completely fallacious. This is appalling in Europe right now. The Greeks are being asked to cut 10 percent from spending in a few years. And the assumption is that this won't affect GDP. But of course it will! It will cut at least 10 percent! And so they won't have the tax collections to fund the new lower level of spending. Spain was forced to make the same announcement yesterday. So the Eurozone is going down the tubes.
On the other hand, look at Japan. They've had enormous deficits ever since the crash in 1988. What's been the interest rate on government bonds ever since? It's zero! They've had no problem funding themselves. The best asset to own in Japan is cash, because the price level is falling. It gets you 4 percent return. The idea that funding difficulties are driven by deficits is an argument backed by a very powerful metaphor, but not much in the way of fact, theory or current experience.
What James Galbreath is saying goes completely counter to most of what the Sainted Austrians have convinced people of. But, Observation trumps theory.
The world works the way it works, not the way someone thinks it works. James Galbreath's "Observations" are of "How the World Really Works." And, his observations are pretty danged accurate.
Galbraith: The danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’ James Galbraith is an economist and the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. chair in government and business relations at the University of Texas at Austin. He's also a skeptic of the prevailing concern over America's long-term deficit. With many people now comparing America's fiscal condition to Greece, I spoke with Galbraith to get the other side of the argument. An edited transcript of our conversation follows.
EK: You think the danger posed by the long-term deficit is overstated by most economists and economic commentators.
JG: No, I think the danger is zero. It's not overstated. It's completely misstated.
EK: Why?
JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.
The next point, wio, is that the Isreali do not allow ENOUGH consumer products into Gaza.
The proof of this, the thriving business that is maintained by the smugglers and their hundreds of tunnels. If the Isreali were not maintaining a strangle hold on Gaza and its' legal economy, those criminal smugglers would not be active.
The port in Gaza would be open to international shipping. That it is blockaded, by the Isreali Navy, another proof that the Isreali are still violating the Geneva Accords.
So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity.
Remember, I've always said that everything we "think" we know about "Economics" breaks down when you get to Japan.
Then, I'll ask One More question. Why did WWII, "Immediately," yank us out of Depression?
The answer, of course, Full Employment, and Massive Deficit Spending.
Admittedly, the results ten years on might not have been so impressive if we hadn't bombed everyone else's assembly lines into non-existence, but that's a subject for another day. :)
desert rat said... It is not necessary to read the litnay, wio, the fact that the Isreali maintain the list, proof enough that they are violating the Geneva Accords.
No, it's the proof they need to get PAID....
Rat: A criminal government, a rouge sectarian State, nuclear armed at that.
Yawn...
Rat: A danger to the entire whirled. Just like North Korea and Pakistan.
Yawn...
Newsflash rat, no matter how many times you say it, it just doesnt change a thing....
When I studied economics a long time ago, I remember being quite taken by Galbraith, his father that is. It is hard to argue against him, but it does seem, intuitively, too good to be true.
desert rat said... The next point, wio, is that the Isreali do not allow ENOUGH consumer products into Gaza.
The proof of this, the thriving business that is maintained by the smugglers and their hundreds of tunnels. If the Isreali were not maintaining a strangle hold on Gaza and its' legal economy, those criminal smugglers would not be active.
But Egypt shares it's border with them, and the MOST of the WORLD INCLUDING AMERICA Support Hamas being blockaded from the world, INCLUDING Fatah....
So I guess America is criminal in your eyes as well..
rat: The port in Gaza would be open to international shipping. That it is blockaded, by the Isreali Navy, another proof that the Isreali are still violating the Geneva Accords.
News flash there is no navy called the "Isreali Navy"
So until you learn to spell, you make no points..
Try making your vile, anti-semitic rants spelled correctly, otherwise your points miss the target...
there is no Isreal....
Now there is an Israel, that keeps a lawless area of the middle east from becoming another war zone...
That would be Gaza, and just like Fatah, Egypt and Israel they all three maintain a blockade of war material into gaza...
And Gaza aint the living hell you lied about...
and of course, you are a self confessed criminal..
I think the thing he doesn't hit hard enough on is the "Full Employment" aspect.
A large part of the Deficit Spending Has to go toward "Producing Something." He Oversimplifies it, but you almost have to to make the point.
I think one reason he can point to Japan is, You Can't get Those People "Not" to Work.
Of course, if you took all the money and created "guvmint" jobs inflation would spike so high that the populace would rebel, and force a re-ordering.
Greece could have survived to some extent (ugly, though, it would have become - sort of like Venezuela) if they would have had their own currency that they could inflate until, "Argentina-like" they eventually Devalued, and Defaulted.
The constraints of the Euro are forcing them to "get right with God," or "Get Out."
When I read his comments about the CBO I can't help thinking about the joke that made its rounds a few years ago in which the punch line was: "There's some things a Rat just won't do."
The CBO keeps wanting to make the economy act in not just "unnatural" ways, but in ways that "It just won't do."
To be honest with you Ruf, after the first part of it I merely skimmed because it was so out there. Therefore, this is just off the top of my head since I don't intend on reading it two or three times.
My first general impression is that not even guys like Paul Krugman go this far and says the US doesn't have a long-term deficit problem. At least, Krugman offers some suggestions on what we need to do to address them (although I don't agree with his suggestions). This guy says "Don't worry. Be happy."
You indicate the importance of observation. Yet he discounts that health care costs will continue to increase faster than other costs in the economy even though they have done it for two decades.
He throws numbers out there that I've never seen before and doesn't explain where he got them (like healthcare as 30% of GPD with no explanation or timeframe.)
He talks about Greece and that they are being forced by the IMF and EU to accept austerity programs. And that they will be locking themselves into lowered GDP (by 10% points) for the next decade. True enough on one of the problem in Greece. I made the same point the other day.
His solution, Greece needs to keep spending. He ignores Greece's main problem (other than ridiculous spending levels) and that is that its currency is tied to the Euro. Greece needs to back out of the Euro and devalue its currency in order to spur growth in the economy.
And a 10% drop in GDP. He appears to get his numbers from the same place you have admitted sometimes getting a few of yours. :)
Buy Paris? Good lord.
There was something in there about Japan carrying large debt and that it's not hurting them and then he projects this onto the US situation. He ignores the fact of Japan's savings rate and that the majority of Japan's debt is absorbed internally. Actually, given the demographics, Japan's shit will hit the fan sooner than ours and it will likely take them a lot longer to dig their way out.
You talk about his observations. He looks at a short-term situation where we have 10% unemployment (20% underemployment) and where the Euro is tanking and people are happy to buy treasuries at current interest rates and then he projects that situation out indefinitely.
Everybody loves "Uncle Miltie." Well, Unk got some things right, and Unk got some things wrong; but, one thing, above all else, he got right was:
It's the "Size" of Government, not how it's "Financed."
But, even this you have to be careful with. There's a shitload of difference between a government that spends your tax dollar paying a bureaucrat to go to the office and watch porn all day, and a tax dollar that the government uses to pay for your healthcare, or to provide you with a road to drive on.
The deficit during WWII was extraordinary, but it was internal debt.
I think a policy of full employment, heavily weighted to infrastructure, focused on domestic energy and domestic production, using a capital budget, funded by project specific bonds and fully paid for with user fees, will keep just about any country out of trouble, specifically the only one which I particularly I care about, the US.
Do that and you can run deficits to your hearts delight.
Yeah, don't get me wrong, Deuce; our current deficits are Way Too High. We need to get the down as quickly as is "Reasonable." Notice, I Didn't say "possible."
I'm not arguing (nor is JK, I think) that "Deficits don't matter." I'm just positing that there has been a good amount of silliness put forth about the Cataclysmic effects of a couple of years Overspending.
And, before anyone goes quoting the CBO they need to go back and see if the CBO has "Ever" gotten any projections right in the past. They might, or might not, get pretty close in a year, or two's time span, but they've never been anywhere "Near" the Mark on projections further out than that.
Rufus, any projections out past a few years get wobbly. You get out around the 10 year mark and they are almost useless for judging static events like year nine or year ten performance. That is because there are inevitably unforeseen events that occur that have a major impact on the economy for varying lengths of time. That being said over the longer term, 20 or 30 years, there is a smoothing effect and the projections based on the key variables (projected GDP, size of work force, productivity, inflation, etc.) are the only way of forecasting a good trend line from disaster.
You fixate on the CBO. Yet as far as I know, no one at the EB thinks their projections are any good over a ten year period.
Anyone I've seen here hasn't been arguing that the numbers are good. They have been arguing that the assumptions that go into the numbers don't make sense; at least on the biggest thing we've been arguing about lately, healthcare.
You argue that the CBO numbers aren't any good. I argue there is no way the numbers can be good when the assumptions that go into the numbers don't make sense. You and I are arguing about the assumptions.
For instance, Congress says they are going to cut 450 billion out of Medicare. That's what CBO puts into their estimate. I don’t know if you believe that assumption. I don't.
You blame it on CBO. I blame it on Congress.
As far as budget projections, you have a number of agencies putting out budget estimates. When the OMB comes out with the same projections as the CBO I tend to think that our deficit will come in somewhere around that number in the absence of some major, unexpected event. You take a look at it and say "Naw, that doesn't feel right to me."
If you have the OMB, the CBO, the chief administrators for the Medicare and Social Security trust funds, the Fed all projecting that we are facing a long-term fiscal time bomb, what do you do? Fire them and then hire in someone who will tell you what you want to hear?
Only if that's the shadow of Sarkozy.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro is at $1.23 and change.
ReplyDeleteI guess we can forget about China loosening the peg on the Yuan.
ReplyDeleteRufus,
ReplyDeleteAEHI got the zone change. It's .75 cents a share, buy that, you might make something. This advice shows how I love ya.
Where are the Ghost Busters when you really, really, need them?
ReplyDeleteLet it be proclaimed Rufus's Dick is the Center of the World.
ReplyDeleteIt is a dark, wormy and small place
DETROIT TO DEMOLISH 10,000 ABANDONED PROPERTIES
ReplyDeleteObama administration demands Israel to stop demolishing illegal arab homes in Jerusalem that were built without permits and built with out code..
Maybe Detroit should offer those homes to the Palestinians?
Well, I just read a book "Bio-Centrism" which took off on the old Berkeley, Hume, Kant, Schopenhauer disputes that I love. Rufii's dick may well be the center of HIS world.
ReplyDeleteWho are the Falun Gong and Why Does China Persecute Them?
ReplyDelete"The Government of China recognizes five beliefs and bans all others, including Falun Gong. Falun Gong is a modern update and blending of two religions China does recognize - Taoism and Buddhism, combined with a simple set of exercises. Of all the banned beliefs, none is treated worse than Falun Gong, banned in July 1999..."
Falun Gong
.
Timothy, welcome.
ReplyDeleteDETROIT TO DEMOLISH 10,000 ABANDONED PROPERTIES
ReplyDeleteObama administration demands Israel to stop demolishing illegal arab homes in Jerusalem that were built without permits and built with out code..
Maybe Detroit should offer those homes to the Palestinians?
Good one!
A little bit of Canadiana which might suggest a possible future in the US?
ReplyDelete"The chief of the navy’s order to dock ships because of a budget squeeze has been overruled because it embarrassed Defence Minister Peter MacKay.
snip
The Conservatives have been at pains to insist budget cuts are not squeezing military operations, and in this, the Canadian navy’s centennial year, the docking of ships because of a money crunch embarrassed the government. Mr. MacKay argued the navy had received $200-million more this year than last, but big-money spending plans to update or buy ships to replace old equipment meant money is tight.
Gen. Natynczyk said there will now be a review to see how where the military can find some money so it can float the fleet of Kingston-class ships, the all-purpose, highly-manoeuverable patrol and mine-sweeping boats that protect Canadian coasts. That money might be found by squeezing anywhere in the military, not just the navy, he said. "
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/top-soldier-rescinds-order-that-surprised-mackay/article1569231/
"Look, my friend, these guys and gals spend entire days doing nothing other than blogging. One wonders from which government account they are paid."
ReplyDeleteInternecine Warfare Agency, Directorate of Unpardonable Insults and Vicious Slurs
Bottomless budget, little oversight.
Wait til we get us some drones!
ReplyDeleteTalking Points Memo:
ReplyDeletePat Buchanan, everyone's favorite MSNBC pundit, wondered in his syndicated column this week why Democratic presidents don't nominate white Christians to the Supreme Court anymore.
"If Kagan is confirmed, Jews, who represent less than 2 percent of the U.S. population, will have 33 percent of the Supreme Court seats," Buchanan wrote. "Is this the Democrats' idea of diversity?"
[...]
WTF is wrong with that man?
Pelosi lays down new travel rules for lawmakers
ReplyDelete"WASHINGTON — House lawmakers traveling on official business will be sitting back with the tourists and spending their own money on souvenirs under new rules announced by Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday...
"The Wall Street Journal, in a study of military travel documents, said lawmakers took more than 230 trips on Air Force planes between Oct. 1, 2007 and Sept. 30, 2009, at an average cost of more than $500,000 a trip...
"Pelosi reminded committee chairmen that the availability of Pentagon aircraft to support congressional travel "is extremely limited" and that, depending on the type of the plane, a minimum and bipartisan number of members will be required...
Tourist Class? You Must be Joking
I assume the phrase "is extremely limited" translates to "me and my boys" however, it is a start.
.
It will also be interesting to see how long the new trael policy lasts past the November elections regardless of who wins.
ReplyDelete.
"travel"
ReplyDeletetrish said...
ReplyDeleteWait til we get us some drones!
Fri May 14, 03:46:00 PM EDT
Ah, but you do.
Google Says It Inadvertently Collected Personal Data
ReplyDeleteBy BRAD STONE
On Friday, Google made a stunning admission: for over three years, it has inadvertently collected snippets of private information that people send over unencrypted wireless networks.
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/google-admits-to-snooping-on-personal-data/?ref=business
now if only the gov. could collect data as effectively we'd be so much safer from Terrorists!
didn't you call them "constitutional carve-outs" trish?
ReplyDeleteTeacher apologizes for recorded beating of student
ReplyDelete"HOUSTON — A teacher who was recorded on cell phone video beating a student apologized Friday, saying she was "without excuse" for the attack on the 13-year-old.
"Science teacher Sheri Lynn Davis, who was fired by the charter school this week over the attack, said she regrets what happened and would act much differently if given the opportunity..."
Houston Teacher Fired for Attack on Student
.
"Ah, but you do."
ReplyDeleteNot me personally. Had I, most of you would have been dead a long time ago.
I saw that it raised quite the *unexpected* ruckus at Balloon Juice, Ash.
But there's plenty of legal precedent for it and what's the difference between having him taken out by a sniper, on the one hand, and doing it the new-fangled way, on the other?
John Cole stated that he'd have no problem were the asshole killed in a military operation. Well, I hate to break it to John, but a lot of the actions that come under covert ops are, in fact, carried out by the military.
Sorry. To be clear, I was speaking of the al-Awlaki thing.
ReplyDeleteAnd to further clarify, by "you" I mean patrons of the Bar. Most of you would be dead by now had I my own personal long range weapons platform.
ReplyDeleteAlas.
and my reference to "constitutional cut-outs" was to the Google collecting all that info - wiretapping...sorta.
ReplyDeleteI realized that, Ash. Obviously my thoughts were elsewhere.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I take it for granted that everything of mine that goes out into the ether is subject to capture by some ubiquitous entity or others. Perhaps many, various and sundry.
Privacy? Ain't no such thing.
"Not me personally. Had I, most of you would have been dead a long time ago."
ReplyDeleteMy. My. MY.
.
I know. It's awful.
ReplyDeleteHabu would have been the first to go.
And Ash never did accept my entreaties to snatch Rat, stuff him into the trunk of his car and just cruise the country for a couple of weeks.
Granted I don't pay the top dollar, but I didn't want to start driving up the already hideous cost of these things.
Chicks.
ReplyDelete.
And...um...welcome, Timothy!
ReplyDeletetrish wrote:
ReplyDelete"Privacy? Ain't no such thing."
aye, that's the line from Google and Facebook. Should our wonderful rulers and masters belly up and claim the same?
under the guise of 'terrorism prevention' of course.
ReplyDeleteLet's see, misdirection proved, Israel is a Club Med, for the Eurotrash.
ReplyDeleteThen he proved that the Israeli counts every toothpick and kotex that they allow into Gaza.
A complete occupation, down to the squares of toilet paper allowed into the camp.
Could have been interesting, if I'd had read it all.
Which I did not.
Ever more proof of the Israeli violations of the Geneva Accords, provided by the Friend of Isreal.
wow, I didn't even skim the stuff. Did they really monitor all those Kotex and all? If so the historical antecedents are chilling!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGot your second breath rat?
ReplyDelete.
"Should our wonderful rulers and masters belly up and claim the same?"
ReplyDeleteNo. Of course not. And did they, as you pointed out, they wouldn't be nearly as efficient.
Having said that, however, I don't think most people realize the extent of surveillance that exists.
And that's a good and necessary thing.
Until, of course, it's not.
Quit it, Rat. I need a rest.
ReplyDeleteWhile I know little of the details of surveillance in the US I remember a blurb about Federal contracting mechanisms being unaware that many applying, and receiving, Federal contracts were delinquent on payments to the Federal government. There certainly could be great security value in monitoring the huge databases of information available through the telecommunication industry. Similarly there could be much security gained through limiting the distribution of lethal weapons (guns) amongst the populace (particularly in urban areas) yet the constitution reigns supreme in that area.
ReplyDeleteChicks.
ReplyDelete.
Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of chicks, they are occupying ever increasing positions of power. 90% of the my clients are 'chicks' these days.
ReplyDeletedesert rat said...
ReplyDeleteLet's see, misdirection proved, Israel is a Club Med, for the Eurotrash.
No, I proved that the world voted Israel a top tourist destination. Your hostility at world travelers speaks volumes of your jealousy of those that can afford to travel.
Rat: Then he proved that the Israeli counts every toothpick and kotex that they allow into Gaza.
A complete occupation, down to the squares of toilet paper allowed into the camp.
Could have been interesting, if I'd had read it all.
Which I did not.
Here Rat proves why he and Eric Holder are cut from the same cloth. He doesnt read the post and yet he can judge it...
The point that Rat made was that the Gaza strip was "A fate worse than death, living under foreign occupation, in the refugee camp squalor of Gaza."
So when we PROVE that Gaza is in fact not a fate worse than death, he now counters that Israel providing millions of tons of food, fuel and medical treatment is a "complete occupation"
Funny, I dont remember any other "occupied" population getting kotex, toothpicks and Toliet Paper from the evil, fate worse than death, occupiers...
Notice how facts just get in the way for Rat, he glosses over the thousands of Gazans that go to Israel for medical treatment and ignores the fact that EGYPT shares a border wth Gaza and it actually splits a town in half.. (rafah)
Rat continues" Ever more proof of the Israeli violations of the Geneva Accords, provided by the Friend of Isreal.
And in the end, Rat has his fantasy that "Isreal" is evil since they provide aid...
I wonder what would be the increase in criminal violation if "ISRAEL" would tell the palestinians to go knock on Egypt's door?
I would also point out, Rat ignores the violence that Hamas does to it's own people, women, gays, christians and even Fatah...
In the end... Rat is a Jew hating, Israel hating, Zionist hating bigot, who has issues with tourists that have more money than him...
Let us all not forget, Rat is a self confessed criminal. So I doubt if he even has the right to vote in America.
Ash said...
ReplyDeletewow, I didn't even skim the stuff. Did they really monitor all those Kotex and all? If so the historical antecedents are chilling!
Didnt even SKIM the stuff?
Why would the words actually hurt you?
Go read it, I dare you...
It is not necessary to read the litnay, wio, the fact that the Isreali maintain the list, proof enough that they are violating the Geneva Accords.
ReplyDeleteA criminal government, a rouge sectarian State, nuclear armed at that.
A danger to the entire whirled.
Just like North Korea and Pakistan.
Sometimes, when you're skimming around, you run into a gem. You need to read this, at least, two, or three, times before it starts to sink in.
ReplyDeleteJG: Let's push a bit deeper on the CBO forecasts. They publish a baseline set of projections. One of those projections holds the economy will return to a normal high-employment level with low inflation over the next 10 years. If true, that would be wonderful news. Go down a few lines and they also have the short-term interest rate going up to 5 percent. It's that short-term interest rate combined with that low inflation rate that allows them to generate, quite mechanically, these enormous future deficit forecasts. And those forecasts are driven partially by the assumption that health-care costs will rise forever at a faster rate than everything else and by interest payments on the debt will hit 20 or 25 percent of GDP.
At this point, the whole thing is completely incoherent. You cannot write checks to 20 percent to anybody without that money entering the economy and increasing employment and inflation. And if it does that, then debt-to-GDP has to be lower, because inflation figures into how much debt we have. These numbers need to come together in a coherent story, and the CBO's forecast does not give us a coherent story. So everything that is said that is based on the CBO's baseline is, strictly speaking, nonsense.
EK: But couldn't there be a space between the CBO being totally correct and the debt not being a problem? It seems certain, for instance, that health-care costs will continue to rise faster than other sectors of the economy.
JG: No, it's not reasonable. Share of health-care cost would rise as part of total GDP and the inflation would rise to be nearer to what the rate of health-care inflation is. And if health care does get that expensive, and we're paying 30 percent of GDP while everyone else is paying 12 percent, we could buy Paris and all the doctors and just move our elderly there.
ReplyDeleteEK: But putting inflation aside, the gap between spending and revenues won't have other ill effects?
JG: Is there any terrible consequence because we haven't prefunded the defense budget? No. There's only one budget and one borrowing authority and all that matters is what that authority pays. Say I'm the federal government and I wish to pay you, Ezra Klein, a billion dollars to build an aircraft carrier. I put money in your bank account for that. Did the Federal Reserve look into that? Did the IRS sign off on it? Government does not need money to spend just as a bowling alley does not run out of points.
What people worry about is that the federal government won't be able to sell bonds. But there can never be a problem for the federal government selling bonds. It goes the other way. The government's spending creates the bank's demand for bonds, because they want a higher return on the money that the government is putting into the economy. My father said this process is so simple that the mind recoils from it.
EK: What are the policy implications of this view?
ReplyDeleteJG: It says that we should be focusing on real problems and not fake ones. We have serious problems. Unemployment is at 10 percent. if we got busy and worked out things for the unemployed to do, we'd be much better off. And we can certainly afford it. We have an impending energy crisis and a climate crisis. We could spend a generation fixing those problems in a way that would rebuild our country, too. On the tax side, what you want to do is reverse the burden on working people. Since the beginning of the crisis, I've supported a payroll tax holiday so everyone gets an increase in their after-tax earnings so they can pay down their mortgages, which would be a good thing. You also want to encourage rich people to recycle their money, which is why I support the estate tax, which has accounted for an enormous number of our great universities and nonprofits and philanthropic organizations. That's one difference between us and Europe.
EK: That does it for my questions, I think.
JG: I have one more answer, though! Since the 1790s, how often has the federal government not run a deficit? Six short periods, all leading to recession. Why? Because the government needs to run a deficit, it's the only way to inject financial resources into the economy. If you're not running a deficit, it's draining the pockets of the private sector. I was at a meeting in Cambridge last month where the managing director of the IMF said he was against deficits but in favor of saving, but they're exactly the same thing! A government deficit means more money in private pockets.
The way people suggest they can cut spending without cutting activity is completely fallacious. This is appalling in Europe right now. The Greeks are being asked to cut 10 percent from spending in a few years. And the assumption is that this won't affect GDP. But of course it will! It will cut at least 10 percent! And so they won't have the tax collections to fund the new lower level of spending. Spain was forced to make the same announcement yesterday. So the Eurozone is going down the tubes.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, look at Japan. They've had enormous deficits ever since the crash in 1988. What's been the interest rate on government bonds ever since? It's zero! They've had no problem funding themselves. The best asset to own in Japan is cash, because the price level is falling. It gets you 4 percent return. The idea that funding difficulties are driven by deficits is an argument backed by a very powerful metaphor, but not much in the way of fact, theory or current experience.
What James Galbreath is saying goes completely counter to most of what the Sainted Austrians have convinced people of. But, Observation trumps theory.
ReplyDeleteThe world works the way it works, not the way someone thinks it works. James Galbreath's "Observations" are of "How the World Really Works." And, his observations are pretty danged accurate.
To skip up to the top of the interview:
ReplyDeleteGalbraith: The danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’
James Galbraith is an economist and the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. chair in government and business relations at the University of Texas at Austin. He's also a skeptic of the prevailing concern over America's long-term deficit. With many people now comparing America's fiscal condition to Greece, I spoke with Galbraith to get the other side of the argument. An edited transcript of our conversation follows.
EK: You think the danger posed by the long-term deficit is overstated by most economists and economic commentators.
JG: No, I think the danger is zero. It's not overstated. It's completely misstated.
EK: Why?
JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.
The next point, wio, is that the Isreali do not allow ENOUGH consumer products into Gaza.
ReplyDeleteThe proof of this, the thriving business that is maintained by the smugglers and their hundreds of tunnels. If the Isreali were not maintaining a strangle hold on Gaza and its' legal economy, those criminal smugglers would not be active.
The port in Gaza would be open to international shipping.
That it is blockaded, by the Isreali Navy, another proof that the Isreali are still violating the Geneva Accords.
So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity.
ReplyDeleteIf you read that bullshit "two or three times" no wonder you sometimes sound a little goofy Ruf.
ReplyDelete.
What exactly did you consider bullshit, Q?
ReplyDeleteOf course, the man exaggerates a "bit" for effect, but in general, I think he makes a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteRemember, I've always said that everything we "think" we know about "Economics" breaks down when you get to Japan.
ReplyDeleteThen, I'll ask One More question. Why did WWII, "Immediately," yank us out of Depression?
The answer, of course, Full Employment, and Massive Deficit Spending.
Admittedly, the results ten years on might not have been so impressive if we hadn't bombed everyone else's assembly lines into non-existence, but that's a subject for another day. :)
desert rat said...
ReplyDeleteIt is not necessary to read the litnay, wio, the fact that the Isreali maintain the list, proof enough that they are violating the Geneva Accords.
No, it's the proof they need to get PAID....
Rat: A criminal government, a rouge sectarian State, nuclear armed at that.
Yawn...
Rat: A danger to the entire whirled.
Just like North Korea and Pakistan.
Yawn...
Newsflash rat, no matter how many times you say it, it just doesnt change a thing....
Israel IS...
When I studied economics a long time ago, I remember being quite taken by Galbraith, his father that is. It is hard to argue against him, but it does seem, intuitively, too good to be true.
ReplyDeletedesert rat said...
ReplyDeleteThe next point, wio, is that the Isreali do not allow ENOUGH consumer products into Gaza.
The proof of this, the thriving business that is maintained by the smugglers and their hundreds of tunnels. If the Isreali were not maintaining a strangle hold on Gaza and its' legal economy, those criminal smugglers would not be active.
But Egypt shares it's border with them, and the MOST of the WORLD INCLUDING AMERICA Support Hamas being blockaded from the world, INCLUDING Fatah....
So I guess America is criminal in your eyes as well..
rat: The port in Gaza would be open to international shipping.
That it is blockaded, by the Isreali Navy, another proof that the Isreali are still violating the Geneva Accords.
News flash there is no navy called the "Isreali Navy"
So until you learn to spell, you make no points..
Try making your vile, anti-semitic rants spelled correctly, otherwise your points miss the target...
there is no Isreal....
Now there is an Israel, that keeps a lawless area of the middle east from becoming another war zone...
That would be Gaza, and just like Fatah, Egypt and Israel they all three maintain a blockade of war material into gaza...
And Gaza aint the living hell you lied about...
and of course, you are a self confessed criminal..
where is your link Rufus?
ReplyDeleteDeuce, I copied that from a "Comment" at the oil drum. I didn't even look for the link. Here it is:
ReplyDeleteWash Post
I think the thing he doesn't hit hard enough on is the "Full Employment" aspect.
ReplyDeleteA large part of the Deficit Spending Has to go toward "Producing Something." He Oversimplifies it, but you almost have to to make the point.
I think one reason he can point to Japan is, You Can't get Those People "Not" to Work.
Of course, if you took all the money and created "guvmint" jobs inflation would spike so high that the populace would rebel, and force a re-ordering.
Greece could have survived to some extent (ugly, though, it would have become - sort of like Venezuela) if they would have had their own currency that they could inflate until, "Argentina-like" they eventually Devalued, and Defaulted.
The constraints of the Euro are forcing them to "get right with God," or "Get Out."
When I read his comments about the CBO I can't help thinking about the joke that made its rounds a few years ago in which the punch line was: "There's some things a Rat just won't do."
ReplyDeleteThe CBO keeps wanting to make the economy act in not just "unnatural" ways, but in ways that "It just won't do."
"What exactly did you consider bullshit, Q?"
ReplyDeleteTo be honest with you Ruf, after the first part of it I merely skimmed because it was so out there. Therefore, this is just off the top of my head since I don't intend on reading it two or three times.
My first general impression is that not even guys like Paul Krugman go this far and says the US doesn't have a long-term deficit problem. At least, Krugman offers some suggestions on what we need to do to address them (although I don't agree with his suggestions). This guy says "Don't worry. Be happy."
You indicate the importance of observation. Yet he discounts that health care costs will continue to increase faster than other costs in the economy even though they have done it for two decades.
He throws numbers out there that I've never seen before and doesn't explain where he got them (like healthcare as 30% of GPD with no explanation or timeframe.)
He talks about Greece and that they are being forced by the IMF and EU to accept austerity programs. And that they will be locking themselves into lowered GDP (by 10% points) for the next decade. True enough on one of the problem in Greece. I made the same point the other day.
His solution, Greece needs to keep spending. He ignores Greece's main problem (other than ridiculous spending levels) and that is that its currency is tied to the Euro. Greece needs to back out of the Euro and devalue its currency in order to spur growth in the economy.
And a 10% drop in GDP. He appears to get his numbers from the same place you have admitted sometimes getting a few of yours. :)
Buy Paris? Good lord.
There was something in there about Japan carrying large debt and that it's not hurting them and then he projects this onto the US situation. He ignores the fact of Japan's savings rate and that the majority of Japan's debt is absorbed internally. Actually, given the demographics, Japan's shit will hit the fan sooner than ours and it will likely take them a lot longer to dig their way out.
You talk about his observations. He looks at a short-term situation where we have 10% unemployment (20% underemployment) and where the Euro is tanking and people are happy to buy treasuries at current interest rates and then he projects that situation out indefinitely.
Sorry
Sorry Ruf I see you commented on a couple things (Greece and Japan) while I was composing my opus.
ReplyDeleteYou can imagine how long it would have been is I had actually read his interview.
:)
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Did you say "Extreme" ways?
ReplyDeleteMoby
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You can checkout any time you like,
ReplyDeleteBut you can never leave!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMy favorite Eagles song.
ReplyDeleteLyin Eyes
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Everybody loves "Uncle Miltie." Well, Unk got some things right, and Unk got some things wrong; but, one thing, above all else, he got right was:
ReplyDeleteIt's the "Size" of Government, not how it's "Financed."
But, even this you have to be careful with. There's a shitload of difference between a government that spends your tax dollar paying a bureaucrat to go to the office and watch porn all day, and a tax dollar that the government uses to pay for your healthcare, or to provide you with a road to drive on.
Here would be a "Primo" example:
ReplyDeleteA Dollar spent developing a Domestic source of energy vs a dollar spent on a foreign war to protect a foreign source of energy.
To borrow money for one makes sense. To borrow money for the other almost guarantees bankruptcy in the long run.
Deemocracee has never been EZ.
ReplyDeleteI heard this song on my way home tonight and it made think of the EB. I thought, I would share it.
ReplyDeleteMel, although I'm only a newbie at the EB (no medals, clusters, and such) I would still like to thank you for thinking of us.
ReplyDelete.
The deficit during WWII was extraordinary, but it was internal debt.
ReplyDeleteI think a policy of full employment, heavily weighted to infrastructure, focused on domestic energy and domestic production, using a capital budget, funded by project specific bonds and fully paid for with user fees, will keep just about any country out of trouble, specifically the only one which I particularly I care about, the US.
Do that and you can run deficits to your hearts delight.
Great selection Mel. You have a good ear for music.
ReplyDeleteYeah, don't get me wrong, Deuce; our current deficits are Way Too High. We need to get the down as quickly as is "Reasonable." Notice, I Didn't say "possible."
ReplyDeleteI'm not arguing (nor is JK, I think) that "Deficits don't matter." I'm just positing that there has been a good amount of silliness put forth about the Cataclysmic effects of a couple of years Overspending.
And, before anyone goes quoting the CBO they need to go back and see if the CBO has "Ever" gotten any projections right in the past. They might, or might not, get pretty close in a year, or two's time span, but they've never been anywhere "Near" the Mark on projections further out than that.
Rufus, any projections out past a few years get wobbly. You get out around the 10 year mark and they are almost useless for judging static events like year nine or year ten performance. That is because there are inevitably unforeseen events that occur that have a major impact on the economy for varying lengths of time. That being said over the longer term, 20 or 30 years, there is a smoothing effect and the projections based on the key variables (projected GDP, size of work force, productivity, inflation, etc.) are the only way of forecasting a good trend line from disaster.
ReplyDeleteYou fixate on the CBO. Yet as far as I know, no one at the EB thinks their projections are any good over a ten year period.
Anyone I've seen here hasn't been arguing that the numbers are good. They have been arguing that the assumptions that go into the numbers don't make sense; at least on the biggest thing we've been arguing about lately, healthcare.
You argue that the CBO numbers aren't any good. I argue there is no way the numbers can be good when the assumptions that go into the numbers don't make sense. You and I are arguing about the assumptions.
For instance, Congress says they are going to cut 450 billion out of Medicare. That's what CBO puts into their estimate. I don’t know if you believe that assumption. I don't.
You blame it on CBO. I blame it on Congress.
As far as budget projections, you have a number of agencies putting out budget estimates. When the OMB comes out with the same projections as the CBO I tend to think that our deficit will come in somewhere around that number in the absence of some major, unexpected event. You take a look at it and say "Naw, that doesn't feel right to me."
If you have the OMB, the CBO, the chief administrators for the Medicare and Social Security trust funds, the Fed all projecting that we are facing a long-term fiscal time bomb, what do you do? Fire them and then hire in someone who will tell you what you want to hear?
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