- 17 July 2015
- Middle East
COLLECTIVE MADNESS
“Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people."
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Monday, August 24, 2015
Netanyahu Wanted to Attack Iran During a Joint US Israeli Military Exercise!
Despite Deal, US Officials Still Talk Up Attacking Iran
USA Today Cites Military Planners Talking 'Comprehensive Attack'
by Jason Ditz, August 23, 2015
Through years of diplomatic efforts, US officials have threatened to attack Iran on a regular basis. Exactly how often they should threaten Iran has often been a matter of contention, but there appeared to be bipartisan agreement that threatening Iran made some sort of sense.
If anything, in the weeks since the deal was reached, US officials have threatened Iran even more often, with the latest being a USA Today articlequoting two “senior” military officials, described as being involved in the planning of attacks against Iran, describing the “comprehensive attack” on the nation.
The officials expressed “moderate confidence” that attacking Iran would set back its nuclear program “by as much as two years.” This is the same civilian nuclear program whose status was already resolved diplomatically.
And while the article treated this as pushing back Iran’s non-existent weapons program by two years, analysts and even some officials have warned that nothing would convince Iran of the need to have an active nuclear weapons program so much as a US attack on them.
It would also be a war crime of the highest order, as since Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program, a fact the US intelligence community has repeatedly attested to, means that attacking Iran’s nuclear program would mean attacking openly civilian infrastructure, things like power plants and the medical isotope reactor, simply to damage their infrastructure.
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Just who is the friend of the average person?
The Federal Reserve is Not Your Friend
Fed policies disproportionately favor wealth.
Rand Paul & Mark Spitznagel | August 20, 2015
Imagine that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was a corporation, with its shares owned by the nation's major pharmaceutical companies. How would you feel about the regulation of medications? Whose interests would this corporation be serving? Or suppose that major oil companies appointed a small committee to periodically announce the price of a barrel of crude in the United States. How would that impact you at the gasoline pump?
Such hypotheticals would strike the majority of Americans as completely absurd, but it's exactly how our banking system operates.
The Federal Reserve is literally owned by the nation's commercial banks, with a rotation of the regional Reserve Bank presidents constituting 5 of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body that sets targets for certain interest rates. The other 7 members of the FOMC are the D.C.-based Board of Governors—which includes the Fed chairperson, currently Janet Yellen—and are nominated by the President. The Fed serves its owners and patrons—the big banks and the federal government, while the rest of Americans get left behind.
The Federal Reserve has the ability to create legal tender through mere bookkeeping operations. By the simple act of buying, for example, $10 million worth of bonds, the Federal Reserve literally creates $10 million worth of money and adds it into the system. The seller's account goes up by $10 million once the Fed's monies are received. Nobody's account gets debited for $10 million. This is a tremendous amount of power for an institution to possess, and yet the Fed shrouds itself in secrecy and is accountable to no one.
In December 2008, Congress summoned then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to provide information concerning the enormous "emergency liquidity" programs that had begun during the financial crisis earlier that fall—all the new acronyms Wall Street analysts would come to know, such as TAF (Term Auction Facility), PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility), and TSLF (Term Securities Lending Facility). Bernanke did not need Congress' permission to conduct those programs, but even worse, he refused to disclose the recipients of the $1.2 trillion in short-term loans that we now know were being administered behind closed doors. This staggering secret loan payouts doesn't even include hundreds of billions in "swaps" to foreign central banks. Bernanke's rationale was that if the Fed announced the names of the big banks being rescued, then depositors and investors would flee, thus defeating the whole purpose of the rescue operations.
Americans then and now were lectured that the trillions in loans and asset purchases were all for their own good and eventual benefit, to resuscitate the credit markets and bolster home values. Yet the truth remains—it is Wall Street that benefits from the Fed at the expense of Main Street. To make things worse, in October 2008—one month after Lehman Brothers collapsed and precipitated the worst of the financial crisis—the Fed began exercising a new policy of paying interest on reserves. The Fed began to subsidize and directly pay the nation's bankers not to make loans to their customers and keep their reserves parked on deposit with the Fed.
Today, Fed officials can give all sorts of technical explanations for that policy—a move that remains in effect today. Yet your average depositor received no such direct subsidy and likely still receives almost no interest on short term deposits.
It's unfortunately in keeping with Fed policies that disproportionately favor wealth—like low interest rates, a policy benefiting those that have the most assets and first access to borrowing, not for people who have little or no capital.
No matter how much the Fed protests to the contrary, it shows little regard for the average Joe or Jane. Consider the types of assets it bought as the Fed's balance sheet exploded from $905 billion in the beginning of September 2008 to $2.2 trillion by the end of the year. (The Fed currently holds some $4.5 trillion in total assets, after the various rounds of "quantitative easing.")
Rather than bailing out struggling homeowners who were underwater, with higher mortgage debt than their homes were worth, the Fed instead loaded up on U.S. Treasuries (its own IOUs) and mortgage-backed securities—the very same "toxic assets" that reflected the horrible judgment of many investment bankers and the ratings agencies that signed off on the shenanigans. It is no coincidence that the federal government was able to run trillion-dollar-plus deficits for four consecutive years with no concern from the financial markets; everyone knows the Fed stands in the wings, willing to "print" new legal tender and sop up Uncle Sam's IOUs (which eventually come due, as we are now seeing in Greece).
When it comes to money, politicians are often seen as the least trustworthy. But in the debate over income and wealth inequality, few people point the finger at the biggest benefactor of the wheeler dealer crony capitalists: the Federal Reserve. The nation's central bank, which regulates all other banks and has the power to create money simply by buying assets, should be under the utmost scrutiny. Yet, perversely, members of Congress have to fight an uphill battle just to audit the Fed. We do not want to politicize monetary policy (as our detractors allege), but rather simply shine a very bright light on this unaccountable and unchecked (and thus entirely un-American) power. By doing this, we may finally be able to rein it in.
Iran attack plans were previously revealed by former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan, who clearly considers Netanyahu and Barak to have a screw loose and to be terminally flaky.
Barak– Netanyahu was on verge of Attacking Iran 3 Times 2010-12 (Why Listening to him on Iran Diplomacy is Daft)
By Juan Cole | (Informed Comment) | – –
In a radio interview, former Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak revealed that the government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was on the verge of attacking Iran on 3 separate occasions in 2010-2012, but was consistently blocked by other (even far right wing) cabinet ministers or by the military chief of staff.
Although Netanyahu consistently depicts Iran as a military aggressor, that country hasn’t attacked another in a conventional war in modern history, whereas Israel has repeatedly launched wars of aggression, including 1956, 1967, 1982, 2009 and 2014. (The 1982 Israeli act of naked aggression on Lebanon eventuated in an 18-year occupation of 10% of Lebanon, during which Lebanese Shiites formed Hizbullah to resist their oppression; Iran’s support for this resistance is typically held against it by the US and Israel as ‘support for terrorism,’ while Washington’s and Tel Aviv’s support for the illegal invasion and occupation are considered perfectly normal.)
Israel has several hundred nuclear warheads, whereas Iran has none, but Iran has been sanctioned for its civilian nuclear enrichment program for generating electricity whereas Israel thumbed its nose at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and kicked off a nuclear arms race with Iraq that led, ironically and through propaganda, to the 2003 US invasion of that country.
The Iran attack plans were previously revealed by former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan, who clearly considers Netanyahu and Barak to have a screw loose and to be terminally flaky. His allegations have been covered by Informed Comment, as below from March:
“Meir Dagan, the former head of Israeli intelligence, has long been on the outs with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Now he is actively campaigning for the Israeli electorate to dump him as prime minister in the upcoming elections. Soon after leaving office four years ago, he broke longstanding protocol to retail the story in public of how he and other security officials vetoed a hare-brained scheme by Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak to attack Iran.
“Netanyahu appears to have forced out Meir Dagan, the head of the Israeli spying agency Mossad, whose departure coincided with that of the chief of staff, the head of domestic intelligence, and other key security officials. Dagan, having become a civilian, promptly went public, lambasting Netanyahu for refusing to make peace with the Palestinians while it was still possible.Dagan went on to accuse Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, of grossly exaggerating the threat from Iran, calling a strike on that country “stupid idea that offers no advantage.” He warned that it would provoke another rocket attack on Israel by Lebanon’s Hizbullah, and perhaps by Syria as well– i.e. it could lead to a regional conflagration.The back story that has emerged in the Israeli press is that Barak, who is a notorious war-monger and adventurist, had gotten Netanyahu’s ear and pressed for a military strike on Iran. Dagan and all the other major security officials stood against this foolhardy plan, and managed to derail it. But Dagan is said to be concerned that virtually all the level heads have gone out of office together, and that Netanyahu and Barak may now be in a position to revive their crazy plan of attacking Iran. Moreover, they may want to attack in September, as a way of creating a crisis that will overshadow Palestinian plans to seek membership in the United Nations.Dagan and other high Israeli security officials appear to believe that Iran has no present nuclear weapons program. That is what Military Intelligence Director, Brigadier General Aviv Kochavi, has told the Israeli parliament. Kochavi thinks it unlikely that Iran would start up a military nuclear program.”
Dagan’s beef with Netanyahu is apparently not personal. The prime minister helped the former head of Mossad get a liver transplant. Dagan affirmed, “I have no personal issue with the prime minister, his wife, his spending and the way he conducts himself. I’m talking about the country he leads.”
Netanyahu clearly believes that he can openly side with the Republican Congress against President Barack Obama without facing any consequences at all. Dagan sees a danger that the next time the UN Security Council wants to condemn Israel for violating international law, Obama will decline to use his veto to stop sanctions.
Israel is in violation of large numbers of UN Security Council resolutions regarding its treatment of the stateless Palestinians, the status of Jerusalem, etc. etc. That Iraq was in violation of UNSC violations was given by the Bush administration as a grounds for invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein in 2003. Iran’s economy has been deeply harmed and its oil exports cut from 2.5 mn b/day to 1.5 mn b/day as a result of UNSC sanctions, along with those of the US. Israel, in contrast, as been held harmless from Security Council condemnation and sanctions by the US veto, which has been exercised every single time the UNSC tried to condemn or sanction Tel Aviv, regardless of the merits of the case.
I have argued that any US president, including Obama, could have long since resolved the Israel-Palestinian conflict by simply declining to exercise that veto, and allowing the Israelis to be pressured into making peace by the UNSC. I think the PLO would make peace tomorrow if it could get 1967 borders and an end to Israeli land grabs, and that the real obstacle to a settlement is Israeli expansionism, which the US veto de fact encourages.
Israel is also facing significant challenges from the UN in another way. Palestine has been granted non-member observer state status there by the General Assembly. It has signed the treaties and instruments necessary to joining the International Criminal Court and gaining standing to sue Israel over its creeping annexation of Palestinian territory beyond the generally recognized 1949 armistice lines. The Rome Statute of 2002 under which the International Criminal Court operates forbids colonization of other people’s territory, prohibiting
“The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory;”
If Palestine sues in the ICC, it seems to me certain that Israel would lose. The PLO seems increasingly to be moving in this direction.
So Dagan sees a world where Israeli military action like last summer’s attack on Gaza was almost universally condemned; where Palestine may successfully take Israel to the ICC (where the US has no veto), where boycotts of Israel could grow; and where an angry US president might start declining to veto all UNSC resolutions against Israel.
“As someone who has served Israel in various security capacities for 45 years, including during the country’s most difficult hours, I feel that we are now at a critical point regarding our existence and our security.
“Our standing in the world is not brilliant right now. The question of Israel’s legitimacy is up for debate. We should not erode our relations with our most important friend. Certainly not in public, certainly not by becoming involved in its domestic politics. This is not proper behaviour for a prime minister…”
“An Israeli prime minister who clashes with the US administration has to ask himself what the risks are. On the matter of settlements, there is no difference between the two [US] parties. And even so, they provide us with a veto umbrella. In a situation of a confrontation, this umbrella is liable to vanish, and within a short time, Israel could find itself facing international sanctions.
“The risks of such a clash are intolerable. We are already today paying a high price. Some of them I know and cannot elaborate.
“I would not have confronted the United States and its president. Netanyahu may get applause in Congress, but all the power is in the White House. What will Netanyahu gain by addressing Congress? I just don’t understand it. Is his goal to get a standing ovation? This trip to Washington is doomed to failure.”
I think it is undeniable that by making Israel a partisan GOP issue, Netanyahu risks undermining the bipartisan consensus in favor of knee-jerk support of Tel Aviv’s vast land thefts from the Palestinians.
Whether Dagan is exaggerating the risks Netanyahu is taking or not, it is significant that many figures formerly in high positions in the Israeli security sector are openly coming out against Netanyahu, whom they clearly see as unhinged and flaky and a danger to the future of Israel.”
—-
Related video added by Juan Cole:
"As he was cocking it to shoot it, Alek just yells, 'Spencer, go!' And Spencer runs down the aisle," Sadler said. "Spencer makes first contact, he tackles the guy, Alek wrestles the gun away from him, and the gunman pulls out a box cutter and slices Spencer a few times. And the three of us beat him until he was unconscious."
US servicemen overpower gunman in French train attack
Video by FRANCE 24
Text by FRANCE 24
Latest update : 2015-08-22
American servicemen overpowered a gunman armed with a Kalashnikov who opened fire on a high-speed train travelling from Amsterdam to Paris on Friday, preventing what the White House said could have been a "far worse tragedy".
Investigators said two of the men who tackled the gunman were American troops who had apparently heard him loading his weapons in a toilet cubicle and confronted him after he came out.
According to their traveling companion and childhood friend Anthony Sadler, a senior at Sacramento State University, the injured American was Spencer Stone of the Sacramento area and the other was Alek Skarlatos of Roseburg, Oregon.
"We heard a gunshot, and we heard glass breaking behind us, and saw a train employee sprint past us down the aisle," Sadler said from France, describing the drama. Then, they saw a gunman entering the train car with an automatic rifle, he said.
"As he was cocking it to shoot it, Alek just yells, 'Spencer, go!' And Spencer runs down the aisle," Sadler said. "Spencer makes first contact, he tackles the guy, Alek wrestles the gun away from him, and the gunman pulls out a box cutter and slices Spencer a few times. And the three of us beat him until he was unconscious."
Another passenger helped tie the gunman up, and Stone then helped another passenger who had been wounded in the throat and losing blood, Sadler said.
"The gunman never said a word," he added.
Two people were wounded in the incident, with the Pentagon confirming that one was a member of the US military. The gunman had a Kalashnikov, an automatic pistol and a box cutter, one police source told AFP.
'Quick thinking'
The suspect, who was arrested when the train stopped at the northern French town of Arras, was a 26-year-old from Morocco or of Moroccan origin who was known to the intelligence services, French investigators said.
US President Barack Obama praised the passengers for their actions.
"The president expressed his profound gratitude for the courage and quick thinking of several passengers, including US service members, who selflessly subdued the attacker," a White House official said. "Their heroic actions may have prevented a far worse tragedy."
The motives for the shooting were not immediately known, although French prosecutors said counter-terrorism investigators had taken over the probe.
France has been on high alert since Islamist gunmen went on the rampage in January, killing 17 people in Paris.
"I condemn the terrorist attack on the Thalys (train) and express my sympathy to the victims," Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said on Twitter of the incident, which occurred while the train was in Belgium.
'Click-click-click'
The man opened fire at 5.50 pm (1550 GMT), train operator Thalys said.
The gunman was arrested 10 minutes later when the train, with 554 passengers on board, stopped at Arras station where armed police were waiting, a spokesman for the French state rail company SNCF told AFP.
The Pentagon said one of those hurt was a member of the US military but his injuries were not life-threatening.
One of the passengers on the train, who asked to be identified only as Damien, 35, said he had heard the gunman shooting but initially thought the sound came from a toy.
"The man stopped between two carriages, fired and it made a click-click-click sound, not at all like in the films," he said, still clearly shocked.
"Then the man, who was bare-chested, returned to carriage 12 and someone in a green T-shirt, with a shaved head, saw him and jumped on him and pinned him to the ground."
French actor Jean-Hugues Anglade, who appeared in the 1986 cult film "Betty Blue" staring Beatrice Dalle, suffered minor injuries as he tried to activate the train's alarm, a spokesman for French rail operator SNCF said.
The gunman had probably boarded the train in Brussels, a police source said.
Media reports said a Briton was also injured, but the Foreign Office in London said it had no reports of any British casualties.
'Great bravery'
French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who went to Arras in the wake of the incident, also praised the Americans who had subdued the suspect.
They showed "great bravery in very trying circumstances", he said. "Without their cool-headed actions we could have been faced with a terrible incident."
French President Francois Hollande said "everything is being done to shed light" on the shooting.
Witness Nicolas Martinage, 17, said he had seen the victims being taken off the train in Arras.
"There were two people with blood on them, one had a wound to the eye. The second was around 30 and had a bandage on his shoulder. Both men were on stretchers," he told AFP.
One passenger, Patrick Arres, 51, said when the train pulled into Arras station he saw more than 30 armed police on the tracks. "They were looking for someone, people were scared."
France remains on edge after Islamic extremists attacked the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish supermarket in Paris in January in a spree that killed 17 people and shocked the world.
In June, a man beheaded his boss and tried to blow up a gas plant in southern France in what prosecutors say was an attack inspired by the Islamic State group.
In May last year, four people, including two Israeli tourists, were killed when a gunman opened fire at the Jewish Museum in Brussels.
(FRANCE 24 with AP and AFP)
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Republicans in Chaos
A poll by Fox News of registered GOP voters on the nomination; here are the picks of current likely Republican voters:
25% Donald Trump
12% Ben Carson
10% Ted Cruz
9% Jeb Bush
6% Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker
5% Carly Fiorina
4% John Kasich, Marco Rubio
3% Chris Christie, Rand Paul
1% Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Monday, August 17, 2015
“It’s somewhere in between naive and unrealistic to assume that the United States of America, has negotiated something like this with the five other parties and with the whole world community watching, that we could back away from that – and that the others would go with us, or even that our allies would go with us,” - Henry Paulson who was in charge of U.S. sanctions as the Treasury Secretary under President George W. Bush
How Iran fell out with the West
By Jim MuirBBC News, Beirut
It was October 1979, a full eight months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi had fled the Iranian revolution, leaving Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to fly back from France and assume power as the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic that was declared on 1 April.
A senior CIA officer, George Cave, flew to Tehran, and held two meetings with the interim Deputy Prime Minister, Abbas Emir Entezam, and the Foreign Minister, Ebrahim Yazdi.
He passed them a warning, backed by top-secret hard intelligence, that Saddam Hussein in neighbouring Iraq was quietly and methodically preparing to invade Iran.
By that stage, the Americans had given up any hope of reversing the revolution and restoring the shah to power.
But they still hoped to establish links with the new order in Tehran, encourage moderate elements within the emerging establishment, and above all, to retain Iran as a listening post for monitoring developments across the border in the Soviet Union, the main US preoccupation at the time.
None of that was to be.
'The Great Satan'
Just two days after Mr Cave's second meeting that October, President Jimmy Carter bowed to irresistible pressure to allow the mortally ill shah to seek treatment in New York for his cancer.
Furious demonstrations erupted in Tehran, culminating in the storming of the US embassy on 4 November and the seizing of 61 diplomats and embassy staff, triggering a hostage drama that was to last 444 days and plunge the two countries into an obsessive crisis in relations from which they have yet to emerge, despite the possibilities raised by the nuclear deal agreed on Tuesday.
For the Iranian revolutionaries, the US was, and still is, the Great Satan.
The same shah whom Washington was now trying to shun had been lifted to power in a 1953 coup engineered by the CIA and the British, displacing the elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, who had had the temerity to nationalise the Iranian oil industry.
Throughout the shah's rule, with its trappings of ostentatious megalomania and over-rapid Westernisation, he and his hated and feared secret police, Savak, enjoyed strong US support as he became more and more disconnected from the masses.
Just two years before the revolution, President Carter stood at the shah's side on New Year's Eve and said: "Iran, because of the great leadership of the shah, is an island of stability."
The embassy seizure was a watershed moment, not only in US-Iranian relations, but also in the course of the Iranian revolution, whose multi-stranded nature was reflected in the variegated make-up of the interim government led by Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan.
Ayatollah Khomeini backed the militant "students" who had taken over the embassy - including, it has been alleged, a certain Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was to become president in 2005. The Bazargan government had no option but to resign as the Islamist trend strengthened its grip.
Exporting the revolution
The following year, true to the American warning, Saddam's Iraq invaded western Iran, triggering the 20th Century's longest war. It only ended in 1988 when Ayatollah Khomeini "drank the poisoned chalice", as he put it, and accepted a peace deal.
The war provided cover for the Islamists to suppress all domestic competition, including the communists and Mujahideen-e Khalq (People's Mujahideen).
As the war ground on, Iran's Islamic militants tried increasingly to export their revolution.
In Lebanon, for example, they were instrumental, with their strategic Syrian partners, in setting up the Shia movement Hezbollah after the 1982 Israeli invasion.
They were widely seen, and blamed by the Americans, as being behind the deadly bomb attacks on the US embassy and US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983, and the seizure of American hostages in Lebanon later in the 1980s.
Having tried to curry favour with post-shah Iran by tipping Tehran off about the planned Iraqi invasion, the US switched sides and began providing Iraq with intelligence on Iranian troop movements, with the strategic aim of containing the Iranian revolution.
But the two sides remained capable of extraordinary pragmatism in their less public dealings.
In November 1986, an obscure Lebanese magazine, al-Shiraa, came out with a complicated and incredible tale of American officials turning up in Tehran with arms deliveries to heavily-embargoed Iran in exchange for the freeing of US hostages in Lebanon.
It turned out to be true. The US was selling arms to Iran, via Israel of all people, to secure the hostages' freedom. The proceeds were used to fund clandestinely the Contra rebels in Nicaragua.
But on the official level, relations remained bitterly hostile, envenomed by such incidents as the shooting-down by the USS Vincennes of an Iranian civilian airliner over the Gulf in 1988, with the loss of 290 lives.
Nuclear dialogue
The landslide election of the genial moderate Mohammad Khatami as president in 1997, with his talk of a "dialogue among civilisations", finally brought hope of a breakthrough, coinciding as it did with the presidency of Bill Clinton.
But Mr Khatami was stymied by hardliners at every step, and the moment was lost.
The arrival at the White House of George W Bush in 2001 brought hardliners into the ascendant in the US too.
After 9/11, Iran co-operated with the US against their mutual Taliban foes in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Khatami was rewarded by having his country dubbed part of the "Axis of Evil" by Mr Bush in January 2002.
Later that year, Iran's secret nuclear programme suddenly broke into the limelight, revealed by exiles from the Mujahideen-e Khalq.
That provided a chance for what Europe called "constructive engagement" with Iran.
British, French and German foreign ministers flew repeatedly to Tehran seeking an enrichment freeze. The Americans held back.
Iran did agree in late 2004 to halt enrichment. But once again the hardliners intervened.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005, and enrichment resumed the following year.
The man then ultimately in charge of Iran's nuclear file, Supreme National Security Council chief Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatic centrist, learned two things from that failed episode and everything that preceded it.
Firstly, for it to work, Iran had to engage with the Americans, not just Europe. Secondly, the hard-liners in Tehran had to be on board, or they would wreck any deal.
Mr Rouhani had to wait another eight years to try his hand again - two terms for the tough, doctrinaire Mr Ahmadinejad.
Mr Rouhani's election as president in 2013, after he advocated a resolution of Iran's nuclear crisis and dialogue with the West, triggered scenes of elation similar to those attending the arrival of Mr Khatami in 1997.
Mr Ahmadinejad and his policies had brought the country to its knees.
His populist economic moves had bankrupted the public coffers. The resumption of nuclear activity had triggered international sanctions that were biting deeply. On top of that, the slump in world oil prices slashed Iran's oil revenues drastically.
The danger of desperate popular upheavals was highlighted by the eruption of implacable revolts in many Arab countries, including Iran's ally Syria.
Another outburst in Iran might be less easy to suppress than the "Green Revolution" that followed Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in 2009.
Something had to be done. And Mr Rouhani was the man to do it. All the elements were finally in place for him to come into his own.
'Historic' deal
That it was not just his own work, but was something the system needed, was made clear by the fact that secret talks with the Americans had already started in Oman in 2012, a year before Rouhani's election.
In the Middle East, politics is often not just the art of the possible, but of the necessary.
In nearly two years of tortuous negotiations, Mr Rouhani and his skilled and charming Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif played a blinder.
Above all, they ensured that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was kept fully engaged and persuaded of the need for the many concessions Iran had to make.
This ensured that the deal when it was announced was politically unassailable in Tehran.
It was greeted ecstatically by liberals and reformists, and with sullen resignation by hardliners.
Everybody agrees that it was "historic", though in different ways.
Mr Rouhani himself said it was "a historic deal of which Iranians will be proud for generations".
Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria said it was a "historic turning-point for Iran, the region and the world." For Benyamin Netanyahu in Israel, it was "a stunning historical mistake".
Just how far-reaching it will turn out to be, remains to be seen.
Potentially, it could mark a strategic sea-change in the affairs of a dramatically turbulent region. That is what Iran's friends hope, and its enemies fear.
Although the text of the deal is strictly confined to the nuclear issue, circles on both sides seem to think that it will provide the basis for a gradual warming of US-Iranian ties, and the exploration of co-operation on stabilising the region's many conflicts where Iran is a key player, directly or by proxy, including those in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
In Iraq, disgruntled Sunnis have for at least a year been referring to "the American-Iranian alliance" because of the convergence of interests there.
US jets have several times bombed in support of Shia militias on the ground, where only a few years ago they were kidnapping and killing American soldiers.
In Lebanon, Western diplomats have for several years made no secret of the fact that they see Iranian-backed Hezbollah as a stabilising factor, given the more deadly threat they perceive from radical Sunni Islam, especially the self-styled Islamic State.
Power struggle
There are many imponderables, and many pitfalls lurking on the road ahead.
Hardliners on both sides will be doing their best to derail the deal.
Mr Rouhani and Mr Zarif may be hailed as heroes by many in Tehran today, but knives are certainly being sharpened in the background.
Like his predecessor in 1988, Ayatollah Khamenei drank his poisoned chalice because he had to, not because he wanted to.
He and the hardliners will above all be watching out for the social, cultural and political consequences of opening up to the outside world.
Rapid movement should not be expected. Ideally, they would like to give just enough to obtain sanctions relief, but to limit the impact and depth of the move.
It should also be borne in mind that the Islamic Republic is not a monolithic power system. It is a collection of vying power circles and trends which sometimes come together, as they have had to for this deal, but are more often sharply at odds.
Much power is in the hands of the hardline Revolutionary Guards, whose influence extends not just to politics and Iran's military involvements abroad in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere, but also deep into many parts of the economic system.
Will they end up being partners with the US and its allies in a regional drive against IS? Or, as the Saudis and others fear, will they simply use the funds eventually released under the deal to step up their activities abroad?
That is only one of many questions that cannot yet be answered.
But a lot went into the deal, from both sides. And until further notice, yes, it is historic.
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