Gee, Why Waste Money in Space?

FT

China’s rapidly expanding satellite programme could alter power dynamics in Asia and reduce the US military’s scope for operations in the region, according to new research.

Chinese reconnaissance satellites can now monitor targets for up to six hours a day, the World Security Institute, a Washington think-tank, has concluded in a new report. The People’s Liberation Army, which could only manage three hours of daily coverage just 18 months ago, is now nearly on a par with the US military in its ability to monitor fixed targets, according to the findings.

“Starting from almost no live surveillance capability 10 years ago, today the PLA has likely equalled the US’s ability to observe targets from space for some real-time operations,” two of the institute’s China researchers, Eric Hagt and Matthew Durnin, write in the Journal of Strategic Studies.

China’s rapidly growing military might has unnerved its neighbours, many of whom are US allies, while a series of disputes this year with Vietnam and the Philippines have added to the concerns.

China’s military build-up has accelerated in recent years, as it has developed an anti-ship ballistic missile, tested a stealth fighter and is poised to launch its first aircraft carrier. The fast-growing network of reconnaissance satellites provides China with the vision to harness this hardware.

Admiral Mike Mullen, America’s top military official, said at the weekend in Beijing that it was clear that the PLA is focused on “access denial” – a term that describes a strategy of pushing the US out of the western Pacific.

“The US is not going away,” Adm Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said. “Our enduring presence in this region has been important to our allies for decades and will continue to be so.”

China warned the US last month not to become involved in its dispute with Vietnam over the South China Sea. “[China’s] strategic priority is to keep the US out of its backyard,” Mr Durnin told the Financial Times, adding that the satellite technology needed for achieving that goal is now in place.

When China tested missiles near Taiwan in 1996, the US deployed two aircraft carriers to nearby waters. The PLA’s inability to locate the ships was a source of great embarrassment that helped spur China’s satellite programme.

“The United States has always felt that if there was a crisis in Taiwan, we could get our naval forces there before China could act and before they would know we were there. This basically takes that off the table,” said Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor at the US Naval War College in Rhode Island.
China cut-off military relations with the US early last year, after Washington announced an arms sale to Taiwan. The two militaries have been working to repair ties this year, with PLA Chief of the General Staff Chen Bingde visiting Washington in May and Adm Mullen in China until July 13.

China Cyber Strategy Becoming Clear

It has become increasingly clear that Chinese military strategy is being devised to disable and disrupt communication technology at the highest level. The Chinese economic expansion is deeply rooted into the Chinese army. The benefits of this investment are being returned handsomely. There is no affirmative action in the People's Army. Yikes.

China Scouts Colleges to Fill Ranks of Modern Army
By Maureen Fan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, December 17, 2007; Page A01

BEIJING -- The fliers circulating last month on the campuses of China's most prestigious universities showed three soldiers positioned against a Chinese flag and an appeal that read in part: "Carry Your Pen to the Army to Become More Accomplished."

In ancient times, the phrase was "Throw Away Your Pen and Join the Army," a challenge to China's intellectuals to stop wasting time and help defend the country. Now, the People's Liberation Army is recruiting college students in an ambitious modernization program designed to attract smart soldiers who can handle sophisticated equipment and transform the 2.3 million-strong force into a high-tech adversary.

Zhou Hao, left, and Tan Zhenwen are juniors at Tsinghua University who have signed up for the army. Zhou, who wants to work in government after college, said, "I think my experience in the army will help me to get a position." (Courtesy Of Zhou Hao)

"With the rise of China, China needs a powerful army," said Tan Zhenwen, a junior at Tsinghua University in Beijing who recently headed to Guangdong province to join the South China Sea Fleet. " . . . I don't worry about the low social status of soldiers. With more and more college students joining the army, the situation is changing and getting better."

While China's rising diplomatic power has helped fuel a desire for a more professional army, military commanders also need highly educated soldiers to maintain the "information-based" military power that has become increasingly important -- both internationally and as a means to dissuade Taiwan from declaring independence.

Domestically, the army already has come a long way. A military that 18 years ago was most readily associated with the shooting of protesters in Tiananmen Square is increasingly helping in relief efforts after floods and other natural disasters. The army has also been the driving force behind recent achievements in space exploration.

In a speech in August marking the 80th anniversary of the army, President Hu Jintao called for accelerated modernization of weapons and equipment, enhanced personnel training and strengthening of combat capabilities through technology.

One of the most important aspects of the modernization is a huge effort to shed the impoverished farmhands who have traditionally signed on as a way to ensure three solid meals a day. The once-bloated force had 4.2 million people two decades ago but has gradually reduced its infantry. It has, however, increased the number of personnel who serve in the navy, air force and Second Artillery Corps, which maintains China's nuclear missiles.

The army now advertises itself as an opportunity for young people to acquire technical skills and experience not easily attained in the private sector. This year, for the first time, the army took out full-page advertisements in newspapers. The ads featured an astronaut, a naval college professor and Peking University's first recruit since its students began signing up in 2005.

Six years ago, 26 universities produced roughly 1,400 army recruits through a special government program similar to the U.S. military's Reserve Officers' Training Corps, or ROTC. This year, the program has grown to include 110 universities, and officials hope to recruit 11,000 students, including some majoring in philosophy, law and medicine.

"Compared with the private sector, army salaries are not very high. But in recent years, the army has increased the salary for soldiers and officers," said Li Shengqiang, an officer at the army's Beijing Recruitment Office. "Because the army is trying to equip itself with advanced weapons and equipment, the quality and knowledge of soldiers has become correspondingly higher. . . . In the 1980s, primary school graduates could join the army. But now, no way."

Recruits are lured by financial incentives and programs that allow students to return to university after two years in the army with preferential standing for graduate school. Officials have introduced psychological tests to weed out unsuitable candidates and imposed penalties for ineligible applicants who try to bribe their way in. Also this year, for the first time candidates who want to be air force pilots must pass a language test in English or Russian.

Undergraduates from outside Beijing may be offered Beijing residency, an important perk, in exchange for two years of service, according to a proposal now under discussion, said another recruitment official who spoke on condition of anonymity because a decision has not been announced.

For Zhou Hao, 20, a third-year journalism student at Tsinghua University, joining the army had been a childhood dream. He was unaware that university students were eligible until he spotted a recruitment poster and discovered financial rewards for signing up. Last week he headed off to join the Second Artillery Group in Chuxiong city, Yunnan province.

"I prefer to work for the government after I graduate, and I think my experience in the army will help me to get a position," Zhou said. "I don't think I really give up anything for the army. But one thing is that more eyes will look at you. So, there must be more pressure, which will force me to do my best."


Zhou Hao, left, and Tan Zhenwen are juniors at Tsinghua University who have signed up for the army. Zhou, who wants to work in government after college, said, "I think my experience in the army will help me to get a position." (Courtesy Of Zhou Hao)

China's growing military budget has generated intense debate in Washington, where some analysts believe China's defense spending is much higher than the $45.3 billion officially earmarked.

Whatever the amount, one Beijing-based military expert added that some of that money is going toward China's military education system.

"We didn't use all those funds just for missiles or defense" but also for "better welfare" for troops, the expert said, noting that more than $1 million has been spent recently on uniforms.

"Maybe five years ago IBM had the most advantage. Most students wouldn't have joined the army. But now the situation is different," he said. "The army now offers higher salaries, higher status than before and more opportunities for advancement. If you wore the uniform before, maybe you couldn't get a girlfriend. Now, even that's different."

In addition, with an increasingly competitive job market, a growing number of college graduates are finding it difficult to secure a stable job with a good salary. Many are beginning to think two years of army experience will give them advantages over other candidates. Others worry that their lives are too comfortable and that they're unprepared for the world.

"Most young people my age have only focused on their studies since childhood. We are relatively delicate and fragile," said Jia Na, 21, a journalism student at Tsinghua University. "When you enter society, there are even bigger hardships. If I join the army and experience hardship, I will be well-prepared to face challenges in society."

Jia, from Shanxi province, is the first from her peasant family to attend university. She signed up after speaking with another Tsinghua student who had returned to campus after two years in the army.

"A teacher who knew him before said he had changed a lot in two years. I found his attitude to be serious and precise and his stories about the army impressed me," Jia said. "He said the labor in the last two years was more than all the work he'd done in his first 18 years of life."

Last week she packed her bags and headed for an East China Sea Fleet base in Zhejiang province, taking jeans, a sweater and a few books. She left behind her makeup, most of her clothes, her computer and her MP3 player.

Researcher Zhang Jie contributed to this report.

The US Navy Should Not be Distracted

The US Navy has enough to worry about other than shore leave in Hong Kong. They could start with simple question, "Why are the Chinese not rushing into building aircraft carriers?"

The Chinese have already determined to develop an asymmetric response built around carrier vulnerabilities. They rightly understand that the weakest link in the US Naval chain is space based communications. Control space and you can control all that is under it. The US better wake up fast. Here is an essay that discusses the real Chinese threat. China’s Space Ambitions—And Ours


This article in the NY Times illustrates the silliness of misplaced concern with the Chinese:

China’s Denial of Port Calls by U.S. Ships Worries Navy

By THOM SHANKER
Published: November 28, 2007

WASHINGTON, Nov. 27 — Two senior American admirals expressed concern on Tuesday over decisions this month by China to refuse access to the port of Hong Kong for three American warships, including two seeking fuel and sheltered waters ahead of a major storm.

The officers, Adm. Gary Roughead, the chief of naval operations, and Adm. Timothy J. Keating, commander of American forces in the Pacific, said neither the Chinese government nor its military had offered explanations.

Two minesweepers, the Patriot and the Guardian, were sailing in international waters this month when a serious Pacific Ocean storm threatened. The two vessels, relatively small, asked for permission to enter Hong Kong’s harbor for fuel and safety. The request was denied.

The admirals said China’s refusal to lend assistance to the minesweepers was a worrisome repudiation of historical principles calling on all nations to assist ships in danger at sea.

“As someone who has been going to sea all my life, if there is one tenet that we observe, it’s when somebody is in need, you provide — and you sort it out later,” Admiral Roughead said during a morning round table with Pentagon correspondents.

The two minesweepers were refueled by an American tanker and suffered no damage from the storm, Admiral Roughead said.

In a second incident just days later, the Kitty Hawk, an American aircraft carrier based in Japan, was already en route to Hong Kong for a Thanksgiving holiday visit scheduled for last Wednesday through Saturday when the Chinese withdrew their previous permission for the port call. China later approved the visit, but it was too late for the Kitty Hawk to turn around and return.

Hundreds of family members of the crew aboard the Kitty Hawk and vessels in its strike group had already flown to Hong Kong for the visit when the Chinese canceled entry “at the last minute,” according to the Navy.

During a video news conference from his headquarters in Hawaii, Admiral Keating said he found the Chinese decisions “perplexing, troublesome.”

“It is not, in our view, conduct that is indicative of a country that understands its obligations of a responsible nation,” Admiral Keating said. “There is little strategic benefit to it.”

But Admiral Keating also stressed the importance of maintaining a military-to-military dialogue to avoid any calamity in relations, and he said he planned to visit China early next year.

The State Department was asking China about its refusal to let the three Navy ships into the Hong Kong harbor.

Cmdr. Pamela S. Kunze, chief spokeswoman for Admiral Roughead, said about 50 Navy ships visited Hong Kong each year. Before the recent refusals, the last American warship to be denied access to the harbor was the Curtis Wilbur, a guided-missile destroyer, in 2002. The Chinese did not provide a reason at the time, she said.