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Monday, June 11, 2012

"How much worse can the cash crunch get?"

64 comments:

  1. I don't know, have no clue.


    http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

    Scroll all the way down and take a look at the 34 year history of silver prices. That is the world I have lived in, a dependable, sane world. See the two hyperspikes? The one in about 1980 was I think when the Hunt Brothers made that big move to corner the silver market, said move finally landing them in bankruptcy court. Though I recall they were allowed to keep their fancy Texas homes, due to the laws of Texas. The second hyperspike is now. From 1975 to 2005 silver was a lovely dependable 5 bucks/ounce.
    I'm used to such a world.

    You ask me how much worse can the cash crunch get? I got no idea cause I got no experience in this brave new world, with such beings in't. That's why I have not much to say in the rareified esoterically distant from the lives and concerns of ordinary people economic discussions here.

    The old ways were better.

    b

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  2. Arab spring sends the Christians packing -

    http://www.jihadwatch.org/2012/06/announcement-from-minarets-in-syrian-city-christians-must-leave-qusayr-within-six-days.h

    b

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  3. The first rule of a crisis like the one in the U.S. is to keep the money flowing. We did that, but we haven't had the guts to take the steps necessary to keep the biggest banks and hedgies from sopping it all up before it gets down into the economy at large. As a result our problems can go on for a very long time - decadal time frame.

    Europe is just toast, plain and simple.

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  4. And, the Eurozone, taken as a whole, is a Very large trading partner of the U.S. (maybe, the largest.) Their troubles will, eventually, migrate to us to some extent.

    Add in the weaker countries tanking due to the higher, and higher price of oil, and we're not getting out of this mess any time soon.

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  5. Home equity is very important in small business creation, and small business startups are where we get most of our job creation. So, the destruction of home values will be a drag on employment for years to come.

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  6. As for Spain, well, a money-losing business model is a money-losing business model, and Spain sharing a currency with Germany is a "money-losing business model."

    Loaning money to a company with a defective business model doesn't help Anyone in the long run.

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  7. Europe is toast, Obama is toast, Spain is toast, Greece is toast, housing is toast, we're toast, even the elk is toast, but the alfalfa looks good.

    b

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  8. Holder is toast.

    b

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  9. As governor, Romney’s administration employed the same incentives used by Obama. He promoted a green-energy fund backed by the state as a “major economic springboard,” and oversaw an increase in support for renewable and energy-efficiency projects. Like Solyndra, some of the companies funded by the state have failed.

    “Massachusetts is a living, breathing microcosm as to why clean energy makes sense,” Rob Pratt, who directed the state’s green-energy effort for three years under Romney, said in an interview. “This acceleration started under Romney.”

    A 2011 report found more than 64,000 clean-energy jobs in Massachusetts, up from a few thousand at the beginning of Romney’s four-year term, Pratt said. Romney left office in 2007.

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    Replies
    1. Car crunch -

      U.S. Secretary of Commerce John Bryson attacks Buick with his Lexus -

      http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/06/secretary_of_commerce_involved_in_2_hit_and_run_accidents.html

      b

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. The only thing that is not toast is the private sector. That is doing fine.

    b

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    1. Van Jones versus Ann Coulter on Private Sector Doing Fine


      Michigan Group Drops Governor Recall Effort

      WSJ: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s victory in Tuesday’s recall vote is yielding dividends for another Midwestern Republican governor.A group that sought to force a recall of Michigan’s Republican Gov. Rick Snyder said Thursday it’s calling it quits, citing a lack of support and the chilly political climate in the wake of the Wisconsin vote.

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  11. They are if they're raising Corn, Alfalfa, and Soybeans.

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  12. 35. wretchard

    Maybe the “bailout” did more harm than good. The WSJ reports:

    Spanish Yields Surge As Bank Bailout Stokes Sovereign Debt Fears

    –Spanish, Italian yields climb sharply as initial rally quickly fades

    –Market participants warn deal does little to allay longer-term concerns

    –Spanish debt-to-GDP set to climb sharply if EUR100 billion aid extended to banks

    –Bondholders could be subordinated behind official creditors

    That brings to mind an old ditty about cures being worse than diseases.


    My bonnie looked into the gas tank
    The heart of its contents to see.
    I lighted a match to assist her.
    Oh bring back my bonnie to me.

    Bring back, bring back,
    Oh bring back my bailout to me, to me!
    Bring back, bring back,
    Oh bring back my bailout to me.

    Now the Irish are saying, if you bailed out Spain on such concessionary terms, then pay us back for what you overcharged us by not giving us the same terms.


    Spain’s difficulty may be Ireland’s opportunity.

    Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is seeking as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to recapitalize his nation’s banks. Ireland, locked out of the bond market since 2010, says it may use any leeway won by Spain to seek partial restitution for the 63 billion euros it spent shoring up its financial system during the past three years.

    When Irish yields are rising
    All the world seems dull and gray.
    But when Spanish yields are diving,
    Sure, they steal your cash away.

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  13. Rufus IIMon Jun 11, 08:27:00 AM EDT

    "The first rule of a crisis like the one in the U.S. is to keep the money flowing. We did that, but we haven't had the guts to take the steps necessary to keep the biggest banks and hedgies from sopping it all up before it gets down into the economy at large. As a result our problems can go on for a very long time - decadal time frame."

    ---

    EXACTLY!

    YOU were for the bailouts,
    I was for giving taxpayers a refund.

    YOU cite Japan's debt as twice ours, so no big deal.

    I cite Japan's lack of growth for 20 years, and real estate and stock markets in 1992 range.

    We followed Japan's example, we reap Japan's result.

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    Replies
    1. "We" being your hero, BHO, and the Dems.

      Delete
  14. Yes, I was for the bailouts; they were absolutely necessary. You can't allow your banks to fail. See: Great Depression 101

    On the other hand, I believe in jerking a knot in the assholes' tails, ala Dodd Frank, and The Volcker Rule.

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  15. And, I didn't say "no big deal" as to Japan's debt. I merely pointed it out.

    And, I have very few "heroes," none of whom are politicians.

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    1. Yeah, you just suck Obama's dick every time you get a chance.

      Dodd Frank also sucks.

      Bring Back Glass Stegal and let the chips fall.

      (Instead of your belowved bailouts producing what we got now)

      ...give them the money, not taxpayers, and expect miracles:

      THEM TO ACT IN OUR INTEREST.

      Pat Dollard

      Rufus Dullard

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    2. You've gone totally insane, Doug. I'm about to write you off.

      Delete
  16. I do believe that, right now, the Dem (Obama) policy responses are the correct ones, and that the republicans are stuck in neverland.

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  17. I do believe you're a dumb fuck socialist.

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  18. The Republicans are fighting, tooth and nail, all "Education/Retraining" initiatives. That alone should be enough to make you suspect that the Pubs are on "the wrong side of history."

    Add in their antipathy to Non-fossil fuel energy, and their proclivity for foreign conflicts, and their should be no doubt that they've gone "round the bend."

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    1. Yep, in Rufusville, aka central planning inc.

      Not in Realworld.

      Fracking yields immediate returns.

      Green subsidies yield graft and corruption and misuse of resources.

      Not to mention financial stasis and worse.

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    2. Pubs are anti education,

      Dems for it.

      Proof is what liberal policies have done to education for the last 50 years.

      Sad

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    3. You do realize that the Bakken is going to "top out" within a year, right?

      Of course you don't.

      Delete
    4. QUIRK!

      Insert "Peak Oil" obsession Rant Here!

      Delete
  19. 43. Kinuachdrach

    Stoi @ 14: “After all, it’s the European banks that are in trouble.”

    Part of the reason the European banks are in trouble is that EuroGovs have been lending money to their banks so that the banks could effectively lend the money back to the governments by buying government bonds. Only people who have attended elite colleges are able to comprehend the beauty & sustainability of that financing scheme. All we plebs know for sure is that the word “Haircut” crops up eventually — and the “Haircut” comes out of the bank’s hide.

    Snarking aside, the fundamental economic problem is that governments have been spending more money than they have, year after year. This does not excuse the banks for going along with governments, of course.

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    1. Those banks, doug, are an extension of their governments, not independent of them.
      Or the governments are extensions of their banks, not independent of them.

      They are in a symbiotic relationship.
      The demise of one of the partners precedes the death of the other.

      There are no Jacksonians amongst the Republicans or Democrats.

      When the governments and banks create the money, you accept it as tender.
      What is your excuse for going along with them?

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    2. I opposed the bailouts.

      I supported taxpayer relief.

      Dems won,

      We lost.

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  20. Rufus puts his trust in BHO, Pelosi, Dodd, and Frank.

    All you need to know.

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. ND: Bakken wells will pump for nearly 3 decades


    BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) -- A typical well drilled in North Dakota's rich Bakken and Three Forks formations will produce about 540,000 barrels of oil during its 29-year lifespan and will generate more than $20 million in net profit, according to state Department of Mineral Resources data.

    Over its lifetime, an average Bakken or Three Forks well will pay more than $4.5 million in taxes and about $7.5 million in royalties to its mineral owners, agency data show.

    "The longevity of each well means this is going to be around for a while," agency spokeswoman Alison Ritter said. "We can look at each well as a driver for the economy. All the taxes stay here, the salaries and wages stay here so it's also a good investment."

    Drilling horizontally into the formations, which lie two miles underground in western North Dakota, costs companies about $7.9 million; each well will pay more than $2 million in salaries and wages over its lifetime, the agency said.

    North Dakota, the nation's No. 2 oil producer behind Texas, had a record 6,921 producing wells in March, or nearly double the amount for the same month in 2007, when the state's oil rush still was in its infancy.

    State data show there were 3,382 Bakken and Three Forks wells in March. Those formations have been the biggest producers of crude in recent years, due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques.

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    1. ...Most oil produced in North Dakota during the past 60 years has come from the Madison formation, a layer of oil producing rock directly above the Bakken that was tapped for decades using traditional vertical wells.

      North Dakota oil drillers produced a record 152.9 million barrels of crude in 2011, up more than 35 percent and nearly 40 million more barrels than the previous record set a year earlier. More than 80 percent of the state's oil production last year came from the Bakken and Three Forks.

      A record 217 rigs were drilling in the state's oil patch on Tuesday. Nearly 95 percent of rigs drilling in North Dakota are aimed at the Bakken and Three Forks. State and industry officials say 99 percent of them hit oil, while nine of 10 are profitable.

      An average Bakken or Three Forks well initially produces about 923 barrels of oil daily but drops to about half that within the first couple of years, data show. The wells produce an average of 76 barrels a day after five years and drop to less than 10 barrels daily after 25 years, the agency said.

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    2. North Dakota, the nation's No. 2 oil producer behind Texas, had a record 6,921 producing wells in March, or nearly double the amount for the same month in 2007, when the state's oil rush still was in its infancy.

      Drill, Baby, Drill!

      (or invest in Solyndra, where energy and money are free)

      Delete
  23. All Baken, all the time

    At the same time, there were 49,000 active wells in California; both states producing about the same amount in January, 2012, but North Dakota jumped ahead of California in early 2012.

    Without Silicon Valley and Oil, California would already be toast, Dems have devastated agriculture.

    ---

    In its June, 2010, corporate presentation, BEXP estimates the economic lifespan of its wells to be 35 - 39 years. Many 'legacy" wells (Madison, Red River) continue to pump after 30 years of production.

    The horrific decline rate is a well-known phenomenon for the Bakken wells. However, it appears that the producers will keep these wells producing as long as possible. New technology comes along, especially the opportunity to "re-frac" and thereby extending the lifetime of the well. Producers are not allowed to "cap" oil wells in North Dakota which is allowed elsewhere. When a producer abandons a well, it is plugged with cement and cannot be re-entered. If one wants to go return to that location, the entire process starts over.

    ---

    Requiring wells to be capped is one of the biggest mistakes ever made by government wrt our economy.

    My home town would be booming now as it used to be had all those wells not been capped.

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  24. BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) -- A typical well drilled in North Dakota's rich Bakken and Three Forks formations will produce about 540,000 barrels of oil during its 29-year lifespan and will generate more than $20 million in net profit, according to state Department of Mineral Resources data.

    Over its lifetime, an average Bakken or Three Forks well will pay more than $4.5 million in taxes and about $7.5 million in royalties to its mineral owners, agency data show.

    ---

    IOWs:

    Petroleum producers pay billions in taxes, while you know who complains about "subsidies"

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  25. They "completed" (pay attention to that word "completed," it's important) about 180 wells in the Bakken in March. That upped production by 17,000 bbl/day, or about 94 bbl/day per well.

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  26. They are about 200 wells behind (catching up at about 40 wells/mo) in their fracking. That means they probably "Drilled" around 140 wells. When they catch up on their fracking in, maybe, 5 months, they will be doing around 140 wells/mo.

    On top of that, Occidental, and other large drillers are pulling out. Reason? They can't make any money. For the small drillers, money is getting harder to get.

    Bakken "peaks" in 2013.

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  27. Very entertaining. Doug should do stand up.

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    1. I do with he'd leave me, and My Obammie's love life out of it, though. :)

      Delete
  28. Doug seems to trust the Republicans in government, but not the Democrats.

    He trusted Mr Reagan while he ran up a trillion in debt, growing government while he did so.

    He trusted Mr Bush Sr while he raised taxes after promising not to.

    He did not trust Mr Clinton when the government balanced its' cash flow.

    He trusted Mr Bush Jr when he ran up trillions in debt and created an economy that was bleeding jobs at a rate of 800,000 a month and crashed the stock market towards the end of his tenure.

    He does not trust Mr Obama who through continuing government operations by enhanced debt financing and low taxes has restored the stock market values to pre-crash levels and has managed 22 months of slow but steady job creation.

    Trust is a terrible thing to waste.

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    1. Doug seems to trust the Republicans but not the Democrats

      He Trusted Mr. Reagan who was the best President in our lifetime.
      He Trusted Mr. Bush Sr, who only broke one promise.
      He Trusted Bush Jr, well, we all did.

      He doesnt trust Mr Obama, because he continues to add government jobs, spend tax money, and blame Bush for his woes. 22 months of slow but steady job creation? You must be joking. A do nothing President, empty suit on a hanger.

      Delete
  29. Let's try to explain this in a way that even the "Frakin' Will Save Us" crowd can understand.

    182 wells were completed in the Bakken in March. Usin Doug's figure of 923 bbl/day for initial production we get an estimated increase in field production of 167,986 bbl/day.

    BUT, we got an increase of 17,000 bbl/day.

    That means the in-place wells must have Declined by 150,986 bbl/day.

    So, what would it have looked like if they had been caught up on their frackin', and the increase in completed wells had been the number, 140, that they actually drilled?

    Weeell, 150,986 - 140(923) = a Field Decline of 21,766 bbl/day.

    And, as I said, they should be caught up with their fracking in about 5 months.

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  30. Armageddon? Zach Karabell isn't buying it:

    Just as in the Cold War, however, each moment of financial brinksmanship that leads to a resolution, no matter how temporary or messy or inadequate for the long term, is one step closer to normalizing and stabilizing the system. European nations by all accounts are moving more quickly toward the needed fiscal union than many would have thought possible even a few months ago, and that is happening because of these crises. China is slowing by design, and as several state and local governments—Wisconsin, San Jose, New Jersey, New York—in the U.S. are demonstrating, the mismatch between projected spending and real growth is being addressed more forcefully than it is at a federal level. Those are all strongly positive signs, but they are silenced in a sea of fear and anxiety that has swamped the financial world and considerable segments of public opinion.

    The next crisis may be only a week away, when Greeks go to the polls. And then we can rehash different variants of the same debate and the same concerns that have been unresolved for years. But for a day at least, perhaps we can acknowledge that the strong drive to come together and solve problems is well in evidence over the course of human history, and expectations that those drives will rule the day are not naive. We know the Armageddon script almost by heart; it may garner the attention, but it isn’t the only show in town.

    LINK

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  31. Interesting Read on Mary Kennedy.

    Sounds like a troubled woman married into a troubled family, possibly at its weakest link.

    (Not to be cavalier, but I keep thinking about that right hook.)

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  32. I can’t read anything about the Kennedy’s. It only stokes my cynicism. In fact, one of the most endearing thing about the Obama’s is that they will never have a dynasty.

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    1. .

      Dynasty?

      Saw a headline the other day, "Jeb Bush Willing to Jpin the GOP Ticket". (I didn't pull up the article for details.)

      I always liked ol Jeb. I doubt he will be asked and if he was, I doubt he would help Romney much for obvious reasons.

      Still...

      .

      Delete
    2. .

      Jpin?

      I think I meant join although it could have been a contraction of 'jump in'.

      .

      Delete
  33. The part where she ran over the family dog reminded me of the movie War of the Roses. There are two kinds of people in this world - those who can run over the family dog and those who can't. Not that I'm passing judgment which I am not. Too much horsepower in that room.

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    1. I'm sorry, Max; I, also, don't find the Kennedy Kids interesting enough to read about.

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    2. I got carried away.

      I love dogs.

      And cats.

      Delete
  34. Hmmpf, guess wot; Spending for the first seven months of this yr (thru April) Federal Govt. Spending is DOWN $76 Billion from the same period in 2011.

    Treasury Report 2012

    Treasury Report 2011


    Oh, and Social Security continues to run a "Surplus," even with the 2% lower payroll tax.

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    1. Don't forget your caveat to "account" for the Ponzi Nightmare:

      There is no debt in the futre, 'cause we don't have to pay gramps when the time comes.

      Inspiration for Obamacare Death Panels.

      No recipient, no problem.

      Delete
  35. It looks like "Outlays" are up 2% from Bush's last budget.

    2009 Outlays

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  36. That's what the $2.6 Trillion in the SS Trust Fund is for.

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  37. Sheriff Joe, move over.

    Kelly’s “intelligence-led” and “pro-active” policing has observed the spirit of the law but pushed its limits, provoking outrage from civil libertarians. He has been idolized by the New York tabloids for keeping the city safe, and excoriated by The New York Times for abusing his authority. A federal court recently opened the way for a class-action suit to curtail the cops’ hundreds of thousands of “stop and frisk” encounters with young men, mostly blacks and Hispanics. “We are doing everything we reasonably can under the law to protect the city,” says Kelly, emphasizing “under the law.” Critics say the policy drives a wedge between police and the community; the police claim it keeps guns off the streets in a city where 96 percent of shooting victims are black or Hispanic. By the cops’ count, their searches turn up 8,000 knives and other weapons every year, including about 600 to 700 handguns. (They note that since 2006, a majority of the police force has been made up of minorities.)

    Should the WoT be treated as a war among sovereigns or as a criminal activity for law enforcement?

    Kelly’s assertive style of policing has also created a bureaucratic battle with agents at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who believe Kelly’s intelligence-gathering operatives are stepping on bureau turf.

    "Pugnacious" or "arrogant"?

    The record, however, is hard to argue with: at least 14 full-blown terrorist attacks have been prevented or failed on Kelly’s watch. Beyond terrorism, New Yorkers are safer today than anyone might have thought possible 20 years ago. The homicide rate—the most reliable indicator of conventional violent crime—is a small fraction of what it was in 1990, when 2,245 people were killed in New York City. The homicide rate is also substantially lower now than it was when Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Kelly took over from Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s “zero tolerance” regime in 2002. New York’s homicide rate last year was 6.1 per 100,000 inhabitants. Philadelphia, highly praised by The New York Times for giving up its stop-and-frisk policy, had a rate more than three times higher, at 20.7 per 100,000.

    LINK

    One of the take-aways is the "results" seem to be coming from lower levels of government than Washington, along the lines of Zack Karabell's analysis.

    Make of that what you will.

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  38. Well, it is what it is:

    Which pop culture property do academics study the most?

    One of the writers used to post at the old Tacitus site.

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