“This war differs from other wars, in this particular. We are not fighting armies but a hostile people, and must make old and young, rich and poor, feel the hard hand of war.”
-William Tecumseh Sherman
It is coming. The British government, under Blair, is doing everything possible including groveling in humiliation in front of the mullahs to rescue their countryman. It is a mistake. Doing so will confirm everything the Islamists belief about the West. Blair has foolishly determined that the goal is to rescue the hostages. It should not be. The goal should be that no one, specifically the Iranians, will dare take the risk of pulling such a stunt again. Blair is out of his league against such men as Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Sometime in the future another leader will have to undo the damage. I hope I am wrong. I fear I am not.
Anyone seen Maggie Thatcher?
The Telegraph is reporting:
Ministers seek deal with Iran for captives
By Sean Rayment, Tim Shipman and Patrick Hennessy, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 2:28am BST 01/04/2007
Ministers are preparing a compromise deal to allow Iran to save face and release its 15 British military captives by promising that the Royal Navy will never knowingly enter Iranian waters without permission.Read the rest if you have the stomach
The Sunday Telegraph has learnt of plans to send a Royal Navy captain or commodore to Teheran, as a special envoy of the Government, to deliver a public assurance that officials hope will end the diplomatic standoff.
The move, which was discussed at a meeting of Whitehall's Cobra crisis committee yesterday, came as Downing Street officials explicitly cautioned against hopes of a speedy outcome and said that families of the hostages should prepare for the "long haul".
The Prime Minister, Tony Blair, and the Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, have been warned that the impasse may develop into a long-term stand-off. Privately, officials are speculating that the crisis could continue for months.
The renewed search for a solution was given greater urgency when a senior Iranian official said that moves had begun to put the 15 British captives on trial.
Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Gholamreza Ansari, announced: "Legal moves to determine the guilt of the British sailors have been launched." In an interview with a Russian television channel, he said: "The legal process is going on and has to be completed and if they are found guilty they will face punishment."
No April Fools joke, sorry to say.
ReplyDeleteI will demote it for you.
ReplyDeleteThe Iraqi Army is too small, very badly equipped (inadequate light armor, junk Soviet small arms, no artillery, no helicopters to speak of, currently no actual or planned ground attack aircraft of significance, no significant air transport assets (only three C-130’s), no national military logistics system, no national military medical system, etc. The Iraqi Army is also unduly dominated by the Shia, and in many battalions lacks discipline. There is no legal authority to punish
ReplyDeleteIraqi soldiers or police who desert their comrades. (The desertion/AWOL numbers frequently leave Iraqi Army battalions at 50% strength or less.) In total, enemy insurgents or armed sectarian militias (SCIRI, JAM, Pesh Merga, AQI, 1920’s Brigade, et. al.) probably exceed 100,000 armed fighters. These non-government armed bands are in some ways more capable of independent operations than the regularly constituted ISF. They do not depend fundamentally on foreign support for their operations.
Most of their money, explosives, and leadership are generated inside Iraq. The majority of the Iraqi population (Sunni and
Shia) support armed attacks on American forces. Although we have arrested 120,000 insurgents (hold 27,000) and killed some huge number of enemy combatants (perhaps 20,000+) --- the armed insurgents, militias, and Al Qaeda in Iraq without fail apparently re-generate both leadership cadres and foot soldiers. Their sophistication, numbers, and lethality go up--- not down--- as they incur these staggering battle losses.
...
4. THE CURRENT SITUATION:
This is the situation.
Since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National Force Iraq--- the situation on the ground has
clearly and measurably improved.
Then he lists and describes at length nine positive tactical and strategic points of improvement and good cheer.
5. THE WAY AHEAD:
In my judgment, we can still achieve our objective of: a stable Iraq, at peace with its neighbors, not producing weapons of
mass destruction, and fully committed to a law-based government. The courage and strength of the US Armed Forces still
gives us latitude and time to build the economic and political conditions that might defuse the ongoing civil war. Our
central purpose is to allow the nation to re-establish governance based on some loose federal consensus among the three
major ethnic-factional actors. (Shia, Sunni, Kurd.)
We have very little time left. This President will have the remainder of his months in office beleaguered by his political
opponents to the war. The democratic control of Congress and its vocal opposition can actually provide a helpful
framework within which our brilliant new Ambassador Ryan Crocker can maneuver the Maliki administration to
understand their diminishing options. It is very unlikely that the US political opposition can constitutionally force the
President into retreat. However, our next President will only have 12 months or less to get Iraq straight before he/she is
forced to pull the plug. Therefore, our planning horizons should assume that there are less than 36 months remaining of
substantial US troop presence in Iraq. The insurgency will continue in some form for a decade. This suggests the
fundamental dilemma facing US policymakers.
The US Armed Forces cannot sustain the current deployment rate. We will leave the nation at risk to other threats from
new hostile actors if we shatter the capabilities of our undersized and under-resourced Army, Marine, and special
operations forces. The Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs must get Congress to provide emergency levels of
resources, manpower, and energy into this rapidly failing system. If we do not aggressively rebuild ---the capability of the
force actually deployed in Iraq will also degrade--- and we are likely to encounter a disaster.
...
A sufficient but not necessary condition of success is adequate resources to build an Iraqi Army, National Police, local
Police, and Border Patrol. We are still in the wrong ball park. The Iraqis need to capacity to jail 150,000 criminals and
terrorists. They must have an air force with 150 US helicopters. (The US Armed Forces have 100+ medevac helicopters
and 700 lift or attack aircraft in-country.) They need 5000 light armored vehicles for their ten divisions. They need
enough precision, radar-assisted counter-battery artillery to suppress the constant mortar and rocket attacks on civilian and
military targets. They should have 24 C130’s---and perhaps three squadrons of light ground attack aircraft. I mention
these numbers not to be precise—but to give an order of magnitude estimation that refutes our current anemic effort. The
ISF have taken horrendous casualties. We must give them the leverage to replace us as our combat formations withdraw
in the coming 36 months.
...
6. SUMMARY:
We have brilliant military and civilian leadership on the ground in Iraq. General Dave Petraeus, LTG Ray Odierno, and
Ambassador Ryan Crocker have the country’s treasure and combat power at their disposal. Our cause is just. The
consequence of failure will be severe.
The American people hold that the US Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in our society. The polls also show
that domestic opinion is not calling for precipitous withdrawal. However, this whole Iraq operation is on the edge of
unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with our forces caught in the middle.
We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground ---the political support, economic
reconstruction resources, and military strength it requires to succeed.
Barry R. McCaffrey
General USA (Ret)
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
a PDF Cocument
USMA, West Point, NY
Let's not let the days events interfere with the Party, like it's 1999!
ReplyDeleteAfter Action Report—General Barry R McCaffrey USA (VISIT IRAQ AND KUWAIT 9-16 March 2007) (PDF; 58 KB)
ReplyDeleteThese are the facts.
Iraq is ripped by a low grade civil war which has worsened to catastrophic levels with as many as 3000 citizens murdered per month. The population is in despair. Life in many of the urban areas is now desperate. A handful of foreign fighters (500+) — and a couple of thousand Al Qaeda operatives incite open factional struggle through suicide bombings which target Shia holy places and innocent civilians. Thousands of attacks target US Military Forces (2900 IED’s) a month— primarily stand off attacks with IED’s, rockets, mortars, snipers, and mines from both Shia (EFP attacks are a primary casualty producer) —and Sunni (85% of all attacks—80% of US deaths—16% of Iraqi population.)
Three million Iraqis are internally displaced or have fled the country to Syria and Jordan. The technical and educated elites are going into self-imposed exile—a huge brain drain that imperils the ability to govern. The Maliki government has little credibility among the Shia populations from which it emerged. It is despised by the Sunni as a Persian surrogate. It is believed untrustworthy and incompetent by the Kurds.
There is no function of government that operates effectively across the nation— not health care, not justice, not education, not transportation, not labor and commerce, not electricity, not oil production. There is no province in the country in which the government has dominance. The government cannot spend its own money effectively. ($7.1 billion sits in New York banks.) No Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter, foreign NGO, nor contractor can walk the streets of Baghdad, nor Mosul, nor Kirkuk, nor Basra, nor Tikrit, nor Najaf, nor Ramadi—without heavily armed protection.
The police force is feared as a Shia militia in uniform which is responsible for thousands of extra-judicial killings. There is no effective nation-wide court system. There are in general almost no acceptable Iraqi penal institutions. The population is terrorized by rampant criminal gangs involved in kidnapping, extortion, robbery, rape, massive stealing of public property —such as electrical lines, oil production material, government transportation, etc. (Saddam released 80,000 criminal prisoners.)
Memo written by retired General Barry R. McCaffrey, in his present capacity as a professor at West Point. Document via Washington Post website.
See also: The Rest Of The Story: Gen. McCaffrey’s Iraq Report Includes Optimism (White House Press Office)
Nine good things, where we are on the right track, he thinks. See PDF link above
I'll bump this up in the morning. we can stand down till then.
ReplyDeleteLet that be a lesson.
ReplyDeleteEven before Britain's politicians and churchmen had finished saying sorry for slavery last Sunday, 15 Britons found themselves temporarily enslaved by the Iranian government.
When will our masters ever learn that, in international relations, nice guys finish last?
This is indeed what comes of being too nice.
A month before expressing his "deep sorrow and regret for our nation's role in the slave trade", Mr Blair had announced his intention to reduce British troop levels in Iraq by 1,600 within a matter of months. "The next chapter in Basra's history," he declared, "can be written by Iraqis." Unfortunately, it looks more likely to be written by Iranians.
And somehow I don't think they'll be saying sorry afterwards.
Until this crisis, Iran had been on the diplomatic rack. Last weekend, the United Nations Security Council imposed new sanctions to punish the regime in Teheran for continuing with its nuclear programme. This reflected growing impatience, even on the part of hitherto indulgent Russia, with the Iranians' persistent defiance. But Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, is never to be underestimated. To regain the diplomatic initiative, he targeted the weakest link on the Security Council. This turns out to be us.
Nemo me impune lacessit was the ancient motto of the Scottish crown and remains the motto of the Scots Guards:
ReplyDelete"Wha daur meddle wi me?"
in old Scots or, if you prefer modern English:
"No one messes with me and gets away with it."
In effect, that became the motto of the entire Victorian Empire.
---
As he approaches the 10th anniversary of becoming Prime Minister, Mr Blair consciously invites comparisons with Lady Thatcher, the only other premier since Lord Liverpool to endure for so long.
Yet this new crisis of captivity, like Mr Blair's needless kow-towing over slavery, exposes the profound differences between him and her.
When it comes to the crunch, Mr Blair's greatest defect is that he is, despite his undoubted transgressions, fundamentally a nice guy. Margaret
Thatcher was neither. Nor, come to think of it, was Queen Victoria. Nor Britannia.
If only you could come back, you iron ladies. Even though you never said sorry - or precisely because you didn't - all would be forgiven.
- Niall Ferguson
This is the link to which Doug refers. You can comment at the bottom. Telegraph
ReplyDeleteMissed a great night at the Bar.
ReplyDeleteRufus,
My wife went to HS with Bobby Gentry!
When I checked out your link, I found a really early Jimi Hendrix when he was still straight w/the Eisley Bros, I think.
I've got a favorite, will put up the link later.
HippyHeaven on Rainbow Ridge, Maui, 1970, Woodstock, this one:
Jimi Hendrix Meets the Blue Angels
Willow Grove NAS
Find it in your Heart to give to those in need.
ReplyDeleteFOR THE CHILDREN
ReplyDelete"It no longer makes sense for us to debate whether or not the earth is warming at an alarming rate, and it doesn’t make sense for us to sit back and wait for others to act.
The fate of the planet that our children and grandchildren will inherit is in our hands, and it our responsibility to do something about this crisis."
— William J. Clinton
Clinton Climate Initiative
"If only you could come back, you iron ladies. Even though you never said sorry - or precisely because you didn't - all would be forgiven."
ReplyDeleteTop 10 Iron Ladies of All Time:
1. Isabella of Spain (who would kick some al-Qaeda butt today)
2. Margaret Thatcher
3. Elizabeth I
4. Boudicca
5. Catherine the Great
6. Cleopatra
7. Golda Meir
8. Indira Gandhi
9. Aung San Suu Kyi (Myanmar gadfly)
10. "Ma" Theresa of Calcutta