The Wall Street Journal or Rufus?

Who the f*** is Rufus?

rufus said...

The Wall Street Journal has some of the worst reporting on the planet. They've never written an article that I knew anything about that was even remotely accurate.

A few years back we had twelve oil fields that were producing a million barrels/day. Today, we have four, and Cantarell will drop out pretty quickly. It went down 26% last year.

Today there are five hundred and sixty some-odd Giants. The Peak year for discovery of Giants was 1972 I believe. Dry land Giants go into decline somewhere between age 25 and forty usually. Offshore Giants go into decline much quicker. 5 of the 6 Saudi Giants are flat, or declining, and everyone is suspicious of Ghawar.

We're finding about One Giant a year, now.

Look, I could go on, and on, but the bottom line is we peaked in crude production in June, I think it was, of 05'. You add up the consumption, and subtract the Production and you get a difference of about 1.8 million barrels/day.

No one can point to where much more crude is coming from Next Year, or the two (or twenty) years after that. But, China, and India are growing like weeds. About 10%/year between the two.

We have about 250 working offshore rigs, and they have an average age of 20 some-odd years (well past their expiry date.) Nobody much is finding squat.


As for lifting costs: Ask Norway what it costs to spend two years drilling a "Sure Thing" in the North Sea and hitting a "Dry Hole," as they just finished doing.

5 of the 6 largest oil companies saw production "Decrease" last year. The North Sea is falling rapidly. Cantarell has fallen off a cliff. The Gulf of Mexico peaked in 02'.

Iran? It used to produce Six Million Barrels/Day; now, it produces a little over Three. Venezuela used to produce a little over 3.2; now, it's 2.2. Alaska peaked several years, ago. Our Crude production is now about 5 mbpd. That means we're importing about 13. Russia's flat. Saudi is flat. Kuwait is struggling to remain flat.

China used to "export;" now they're "Importing." Indonesia's production is Falling. Now, they're importing. Even the U.K. is starting to Import.

With production falling off a cliff, when does Mexico put a "Cap" on exports? Getting oil out of "tar sands," and "shale" is a Nightmare. Goddawful expensive, energy intensive, and an ecological disaster. We're probably getting about all out of the Canadian tar sands as we're going to get. Shale? Fuggedaboutit.

Think Ethanol. It's where we're going. PDQ. The "Jig is Up." Believe me, or believe the WSJ. Pick wisely.

Rupert Murdoch Challenges The New York Times

There is no second national paper in the United States that stands besides the NY Times. There are some strong regionals but none have the reach and depth of the Times. The Wall Street Journal is an international US paper that can diversify into areas that would compete with the Times. Murdoch has the money and the synergy with his other media. He will use the internet and he will make money doing it. It is long overdue to have a paper that will balance the left listing of the Times. Watch for some big changes in both papers.


News Corp.'s deal puts pressure on New York Times
By Jon Friedman, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Aug 13, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- News Corp.'s agreement to acquire Dow Jones & Co., which publishes The Wall Street Journal, is putting the New York Times on the defensive.
The Times already has a set of financial and journalistic challenges. I wouldn't be surprised if many of its future decisions will be judged as a response to the Dow Jones deal.

Jon Friedman says that the New York Times recognizes the challenge being posed by a News Corp.-owned Wall Street Journal.
News Corp.'s (NWS :22.01, -0.40, -1.8% ) deep pockets will let the Journal compete more intensely than ever with the Times, especially overseas. The conglomerate is expected to invest significantly in Dow Jones' Internet operations and worldwide news-gathering efforts. (Dow Jones owns MarketWatch, the publisher of this column.)
This means the Times now has to deal with a determined global competitor with deep pockets. News Corp. Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch has spoken about his interest in increasing the Journal's clout outside the United States. The Times has regarded international coverage as its "franchise."

The Journal's skill in this area was recognized when it won a Pulitzer Prize only a few months ago, for its coverage of China. Fortifying this effort would put additional pressure on the Times.

As Dow Jones (DJ :58.52, +0.04, +0.1% ) did in January, the New York Times Co. (NYT :
22.31, -0.40, -1.8% ) has decided to publish a slightly smaller version of its newspaper we hold in our hands. While it's reasonable to believe that both parties reached this cost-cutting decision on their own, it's inevitable that some are bound to say that the Times followed the Journal's lead.

Fair or not, that's the sort of carping the Times will have to face from here on out.

Earlier this year, Murdoch discussed his acquisition of My Space with Charlie Rose. You may find some of his comments very interesting. I am sure the NYT has viewed this show in detail.