“This site is dedicated to preying on peoples vanity, ignorance, or loneliness, gaining their trust and betraying them without remorse.”

Sunday, May 15, 2016

We know another crash is coming - What can we do about it?

Three Months Ago:

This is how the next financial crisis will spread around the world economy


Canary-wharfGettyImages-834.jpgA new economic crisis, which I believe we are on the brink of experiencing, will have similarities, and differences, to 2008. The problem of crowded trades – where market participants all have the same basic positions and strategies, and identical risk models – will be familiar.

The effect of new regulations, ironically designed to minimise the risk of a new crash, and a reduction in trading liquidity will create new problems. Extra capital, while welcome, does not alter the level of risk, but merely who bears it.

To recapitalise banks, regulators have approved risky hybrid securities, such as contingent capital and bail-in bonds. In the event of a systemic crisis, losses will be transmitted to insurance companies, pension funds and private investors; bailing them out may be politically necessary or expedient.

With simpler solutions proving politically difficult, attempts to reduce the risk in the chains of derivative contracts have focused on Central Counter Parties (CCPs), a theoretically bankruptcy-proof guarantor of transactions and collateral. CCPs have added complexity, creating new instability; CCP risk management is unproven under conditions of stress.


The reliance on collateral is likely to prove troublesome under conditions of real stress. The emphasis shifts from the borrower or counterpart’s creditworthiness to the collateral creating different risks.

Government securities now are not risk free. It assumes liquid markets for the collateral, which must be realised in case of default.

Unexpected changes in the amount of collateral needed create liquidity risks. Collateral use also entails significant modelling, operational and legal risk.

Trading liquidity in markets has also diminished markedly since 2008. Traditionally, market makers act as shock absorbers in periods of stress allowing investors to readjust portfolios at a price. But consolidation – through bankruptcies, mergers or acquisition or withdrawal – has reduced the number of dealers.

Higher capital charges and specific prohibitions on trading, such as the Volcker rule or narrow banking, have increased the cost of trading.  The amounts that can be transacted without moving prices materially have fallen, meaning shocks will be rapidly transmitted.


The decline in liquidity is exacerbated by the changing structure of many markets. There is increased participation by high frequency traders (“HFT”), retail and private investors either directly or through funds. Paralleling the decline in the number of dealers, the number of major asset managers through whom these funds are deployed is small.

The combination of size, the nature of the underlying assets and the redemption feature may prove especially toxic. It is simply not possible to transform highly illiquid instruments, using financial engineering into liquid equivalents. This lack of liquidity is not reflected in pricing, with the premium for liquidity risk in most segments having fallen to 2007 levels of below.

As the following scenario outlines, these changes in market structure are likely help to create instability in any new crisis.

The key drivers will be higher liquidity reserves for banks, more stringent calculations of risk in derivative transactions and use of government securities to lower capital requirements as collateral. Given pre-existing exposures to government bonds via repurchase transactions, investments or trading inventories, the regulations increase bank exposure to sovereign bonds. This coincides with the deterioration in the quality of government securities and unprecedented low rates driven by policy, creating a dangerous source of instability, which will feed market volatility and transmit losses across different markets.


Where rating downgrades or deteriorating credit quality result in falls in the value of sovereign securities, banks suffer losses on their holdings. Where the securities are used as surety for funding or derivatives, banks need to lodge additional collateral, draining liquidity from markets. The deterioration in a sovereign’s credit quality will affect risk calculations, requiring additional capital as well as collateral.

Banks may hedge this risk, usually by purchasing default protection on the sovereign or shorting government bonds. This will exacerbate losses as the sovereign bonds’ value falls further. Market constraints may necessitate use of proxies for the sovereign, including shorting or buying insurance on equity indices or major stocks. Banks may short sell the currency as a de facto hedge. Proxy hedges transmit the volatility into other asset markets. They create additional risk where volatility is high and correlation between major asset classes becomes unstable, such as in a risk-on risk-off trading environment.

Second round effects focus on the financial position of banks adversely affected by losses on government bond investments and reduced ability of the nation to support its financial institution. The increased default risk of affected banks sets off a chain reaction of additional capital charges increase and loss exposures across international active banks who deal with them , requiring further hedging, compounding the negative spiral.

The reduced demand for the affected sovereign’s bonds result in higher funding costs and reduced market access, which is transmitted to banks and other firms in the country. Higher counterparty risk or downgrades may trigger more collateral calls.

Financial market shocks flow through into the real economy, affecting the supply of credit, growth, investment and employment. In turn, this feeds back into further sovereign and financial sector weakness.

The exact sequence of events is unpredictable because of the complexity of transmission pathways. But once these feedback loops start, they are very difficult to control.

Satyajit Das is a former banker and the author of ‘A Banquet of Consequences: Have we consumed our own future?’


More about:



SATYAJIT DAS

Satyajit Das writes the Das Capital Column in The Independent. He has worked in financial markets for over 35 years, as a banker, a corporate treasurer and now as a consultant. His latest book is 'A Banquet of Consequence' (due to be published in February 2016). It will be titled 'The Age of Stagnation' in the US and India to increase confusion and avoid it being mistaken for a cookbook. He is also the author of 'Traders Guns and Money', 'Extreme Money' and in the distant past (which he repudiates) a number of reference books on derivatives and risk-management. He became a financier because he wasn't good enough to be a professional cricketer and no one offered him a job as a cricket commentator or allowed him to pursue his other passion- wildlife (he is the co-author with Jade Novakovic of 'In Search of The Pangolin: The Accidental Eco-Tourist'). He lives in Sydney, Australia. 




84 comments:

  1. Milo interviews John McAfee: (Libertarian Candidate for POTUS)

    TSA:

    "Insuring you that you are not the Enemy we are protecting you from."

    http://www.podcastone.com/pg/jsp/program/episode.jsp?programID=863&pid=1650181

    ReplyDelete
  2. Buy farmland.

    Never buy stocks or bonds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. (you won't get rich but you'll always have a place to squat)

      Delete
  3. May 15, 2016

    DNC leaders flee Nevada State Dem Convention, call in sheriff’s deputies and hotel security as dispute over delegates escalates into violence

    By Thomas Lifson


    Bitterness and violence erupted yesterday at the Democrats’ Nevada State Convention in Las Vegas, as 64 Sanders delegates were disqualified, allowing Clinton to take 7 of the 12 delegates up for grabs. Party officials there ignored a motion from the floor and rammed through a vote according to the wishes of the Clinton campaign. It’s almost as if the Hillary faction genuinely fears for the nomination it supposedly has sewn up.

    Along the way Barbara Boxer was booed: VIDEO


    And trolled the delegates:


    “When you’re booing me, you’re booing Bernie Sanders,” Boxer told the crowd. “You know something I grew up in Brooklyn I’m not afraid of bullies. I’m for Hillary Clinton because she’s for all of us. So keep yourselves booing and boo yourself out of the election,” the California senator added.

    A fistfight broke out: VIDEO

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/05/dnc_leaders_flee_nevada_state_dem_convention_call_in_sheriffs_deputies_and_hotel_security_as_dispute_over_delegates_escalates_into_violence.html#ixzz48jRxPjdO

    ReplyDelete
  4. The single largest voting bloc is "College Educated Whites," a cohort that the Republican Nominee is expected to win by approximately 14 points (57-43.)

    If you go to the Reuters Ipsos Poll and select under "personal" for "College, Beyond College, and White," you will find Trump trailing by 14.5%.

    Now, there are a lot of "undecideds" in this number, and while many of those are probably Republicans that may eventually "come home," it is still a horrifying chart for the GOP candidate.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Try this one <a href="http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/SC_RACE:1,EDUATT:3|4</a>

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Okay, for some reason it wants to take you directly to "White," without adding in the "College," and "Beyond College."

      You have to go down to filters, and click "personal," and then click college, and beyond college.

      Just looking at the "white" category is way misleading because it has way, way, way over-sampled "white, less than college."

      Delete
    2. According to Nate Silver's 538 Blog, 37% of the vote will be "White, College Educated," and 33% will be "White, Non-College Educated."

      Delete
  6. The 'Democrats' and the 'Socialists' will have killed each other off before November, so the Republicans
    will be left to put the country back together.

    *See Above: Sun May 15, 09:50:00 AM EDT

    ReplyDelete
  7. .

    I'll wait 5 1/2 months and get the real skinny on who voted for who.

    By the way, RCP poll average shows Hillary's lead dropped again from 6.7 a week ago to 5.7 today.

    .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As soon as there is a 'presumptive' Democratic candidate, then the polling will have a bit more meaning.

      If Hillary is indicted ... the odds do change, Bernie is polling better than Hillary, against the Donald.

      Delete
    2. Right now, the "Bernie-Bros" are skewing the polling a little bit by refusing to commit to Hillary in the General Election match-up. She should pick up several points when Bernie finally throws in the towel, and directs his supporters to get behind the ticket.

      Some of the polling, at this point, is terrible. There is a lot of partisan agenda-setting going on. I wouldn't pay much attention to any but the most Major Polls, right now - ABC/Wash. Post, NBC/WSJ, CBS, etc.

      No poll, today, can be anywhere near accurate if it's not calling at least 60% Cellphones.

      Delete
    3. I could be persuaded to vote for Bernie, but I would NEVER vote for Mrs Clinton.

      I think that there are a lot of folks in that position.

      Delete
    4. Yep, there are - but probably not enough to elect the Donald. :)

      I would not have imagined myself a Hillary-supporter, but then Bernie promised Me a tax increase. :)

      Delete
    5. "Tax increases for Thee but not for Me" eh, Ruf ?


      Hillary Clinton’s Proposed Tax Increase | Cato @ Liberty


      www.cato.org/blog/hillary-clintons-proposed-tax-increase

      Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is proposing to increase taxes on high ... Hillary Clinton’s Proposed Tax Increase. ... Clinton’s tax increase would ...
      .

      Hillary Clinton 2016 tax increases: Analysis: Clinton ...


      www.politico.com/.../01/hillary-clinton-proposed-tax-increases-218234

      May 10, 2016 · Analysis: Clinton proposed almost $500 ... candidate Hillary Clinton has proposed almost $500 ... that modest increases in top tax rates have ...
      .

      Clinton proposes 4% tax increase on top earners - CNN


      www.cnn.com/2016/01/11/politics/hillary-clinton-tax-plan-four-percent

      Jan 11, 2016 · Video embedded · Hillary Clinton proposed Monday a 4% tax increase ... Clinton proposes 4% tax increase on ... (CNN)Hillary Clinton proposed Monday a 4% tax increase ...
      .

      Analysis: Clinton proposes $1T tax hike, but middle-class ...


      www.politico.com/story/2016/03/hillary-clinton-tax-hike-proposal...

      Hillary Clinton's tax increases would target the ... Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has proposed $1.1 trillion in ... Politico Magazine ...
      .

      Hillary Clinton Proposes Tax Increases - Tax Blog


      https://www.taxconnections.com/taxblog/hillary-clinton-proposes...

      Hillary Clinton is proposing a new scheme where ... Hillary Clinton Proposes Tax Increases. ... Hillary Clinton, as well as some of her tax and spenders just ...
      .

      Hillary Clinton Proposes 4% Tax Increase on Super Wealthy


      time.com/4176273/hillary-clinton-tax-super-wealthy

      Video embedded · Hillary Clinton Proposes 4% Tax on the Super Wealthy. ... Hillary Clinton proposed a 4% tax on individuals making more than $5 million a year, ...

      Delete

    6. Hillary Clinton proposed a 4% tax on individuals making more than $5 million a year, ...


      It is doubtful that anyone that posts here, at the "Elephant Bar", would be affected.

      Delete
    7. Pure Rufus:

      "Tax increases for Thee but not for Me"

      I've read, but am uncertain if it is true, that USA is already the highest taxed nation on earth. If anyone knows the truth of this for certain, please post.

      Basically, Rufus wants to divide things up equally with anyone that has more than he.

      Delete
    8. The inevitable result of 'The Rufus Policy' can be seen in the article directly below concerning Venezuela.

      Hopefully he will consider the fate of beer production there.

      Delete
    9. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  8. May 15, 2016

    Venezuela seizing factories, arresting owners

    By Thomas Lifson


    Socialist Venezuela is so bankrupt that it is unable to import key commodities and unable to supply electricity to factories, so scapegoats have become necessary. The situation became critical when the country’s largest beer producer, Polar, halted production a couple of weeks ago because it was unable to import barley, owing to Venezuela’s lack of foreign exchange. Venezuelans are among the world’s heaviest consumer of beer, and with the summer coming upon them, the lack of the cooling beverage became intolerable to the “masses” that are supposed to support the government on Nicholas Maduro.

    Valentina Oropeza of AFP reports:


    Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced a sweeping crackdown Saturday under a new emergency decree, ordering the seizure of paralyzed factories, the arrest of their owners and military exercises to counter alleged foreign threats.

    The embattled leftist is struggling to contain a raging economic crisis that has led to food shortages, soaring prices, riots, looting and vigilante justice, pushing Venezuela to the brink of collapse....
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/05/venezuela_seizing_factories_arresting_owners_.html#ixzz48jkuaBM4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil.....feel the burn.....

      Delete
  9. Cartoons really do draw a response ...

    Whether the cartoons are published in Paris mocking Mohammad, or in Tehran mocking the Zionist 'sacred cow', the Holocaust.

    Freedom of expression for 'we', but not for 'thee'.

    JERUSALEM - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at Iran Sunday for staging yet another Holocaust-themed cartoon contest ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jack you are a SICK person, seek professional help.

      Delete
    2. JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at Iran Sunday for staging a Holocaust-themed cartoon contest that mocked the Nazi genocide of six million Jews during World War II and said the Islamic Republic was busy planning for another one.

      Iran has long backed armed groups committed to Israel's destruction and its leaders have called for it to be wiped off the map. Israel fears that Iran's nuclear program is designed to threaten its very existence. But Netanyahu said that it not just Iran's belligerent policies that Israel opposed, but its values.

      "It denies the Holocaust, it mocks the Holocaust and it is also preparing another Holocaust," Netanyahu said at his weekly Cabinet meeting. "I think that every country in the world must stand up and fully condemn this."

      Delete
    3. Jack Hawking, a supporter of Iran and it's genocide of the Jews.

      Delete
    4. Jack, your support for Hamas, the Iranians and other terrorist outfits is duly noted.

      Delete
    5. Quote me, "O"rdure.
      Post when and where I have supported Hamas, Iran or any other terrorist organization.

      Because you will not be able to.

      All you have is your lies.

      Delete

    6. Now, "O"rdure, if you cannot see the hypocrisy of championing cartoons that mock Mohammad, while being outraged by cartoons that mock your own 'sacred cow', well, there is no hope for you.

      Delete
    7. Was Mohammed a victim of slaughter?

      Delete
    8. F off, you a h.

      Go get help.

      What a hell of life you live.

      What a MESS you are.

      Delete
    9. This intended for Jack.

      Delete
    10. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete

    11. Yes, Doug, the Muslims have been victims of slaughter, at the hands of Christians.

      Delete
    12. But Mohamad, the sacred cow, was not.

      The other "sacred cow", six million Jews were killed.

      One should be mocked and the not.

      Just my opinion.

      Delete

    13. Cartoons are cartoons, to take offense at one extreme, but then excuse the other, pure hypocrisy.

      Both are protected speech, if you don't want to admit it, that's on you.

      Even the number 2 man in the Israeli Defense Force acknowledges that the Israeli abuse the Holocaust.

      The Israeli general who compared the Jewish State to Nazi-era Germany

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/05/08/the-israeli-general-who-compared-the-jewish-state-to-nazi-era-germany/

      In his address, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, essentially the No. 2 man in the army, warned his fellow citizens, “There is nothing easier than to hate those who are different; there is nothing easier than to sow fear and terror; there is nothing easier than to behave like animals.”

      His speech comes amid revelations that an Israeli soldier shot and killed a wounded Palestinian attacker in the head, an act that human rights activists called a street execution and that Israeli military prosecutors called manslaughter.

      Delete
    14. Cartoons are cartoons,,,

      Not having seen the drawings and the message being conveyed I can't really debate the points with you.

      Paraphrasing Jesus: "Its not what we put in our mouths that defile us but what comes out of our mouths,."
      I would add fingertips for this day and age.

      Delete
  10. .

    WiO, now that I have acceded to your demands for an opinion on the story in Ynet regarding an alleged Hamas/ISIS connection, are you going to apologize for hurting my feelings with your nasty comments?

    .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You called WiO 'nutz'.

      You called me 'nutz', and a 'dipshit', too.

      Tell the dick to take a hike, tell him to go on his own apology tour first.

      :o)

      Delete
    2. heh heh

      Take that, dick.

      Delete
    3. You're all dicks.

      The issue is hands.

      Delete

  11. Obama doesn't think rapists, armed robbers, drug dealers are criminals

    ... According to Team Obama, criminals should now be declared “justice-involved individuals ...

    https://www.google.com/search?q=justice+involved+individuals&rlz=1C1AVSU_enUS357&oq=justice+involved+individuals&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "justice involved individuals"
      Should have equal access to all spaces:
      Public, private, classified, and unclassified.
      Any businesses that deny service to "justice involved individuals" will be put out of business forthwith.
      To include Gun Dealers.

      Delete
  12. Old Dicks with little hands vote for Hillary.

    ReplyDelete

  13. Christian Science Monitor - ‎

    Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said it won't supress this expression of free speech just as the US won't censor a Ku Klux Klan demonstration.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Iran censors all sorts of speech.

      Jack one who is in the employ of the Mullahs such as you should understand that...

      Delete


  14. Jack HawkinsSun May 15, 12:29:00 PM EDT
    Quote me, "O"rdure.
    Post when and where I have supported Hamas, Iran or any other terrorist organization.

    Because you will not be able to.

    All you have is your lies.



    lol

    silly boy....

    your "quotes" are meaningless.

    We have you dead to rights.

    The proper people have been given your name, address, Social Security number and of course the general course of your Jew Hatred.


    :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jack is SO wrapped up that silly thing called a trial...

      Jack, you must have KNOWN your hundreds, strike that, THOUSANDS of posts would get the attention of those who watch for these things...

      LOL

      Delete
    2. Now personally? I think you are a worthless old drunk....

      But there are those, unlike me, that have power and connections....

      Just today you claimed that your sources inside the AZ FBI told you that I was an international gun dealer....


      Assume you are correct, just who do you think I WORK FOR then???


      Your assumptions are true in your quotes to you.....

      LOL

      Delete
    3. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick, Jack be dumper than a dipshit...

      Delete

    4. Jack keeps you fully engaged, "O"rdure, and your arguments against his positions, they make you and yours look stupid.

      But that is the easiest of all blogging, making you and yours look stupid.

      Delete
  15. QuirkSun May 15, 02:37:00 PM EDT
    .

    WiO, now that I have acceded to your demands for an opinion on the story in Ynet regarding an alleged Hamas/ISIS connection, are you going to apologize for hurting my feelings with your nasty comments?


    I didn't see any opinion by you on that story......

    But if you did render an opinion, how has that changed YOUR opinion that Israel, Arabia and Iran are of equal credibility?

    Because if that still holds true?

    You are still a shit of a human.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. "O"rdure, when you comment upon folks being a shit of a human, you are just projecting yourself upon us.

      Delete
    2. Does that hold for you when you call me ""O"rude", Bob a "draft dodger"?

      LOL Back at you deadbeat dad...

      Should we start a fund for the $210,000k you owe?

      Delete
    3. Jack "I am a "reporter" " Hawkins...

      No lie to big, no lie too small that Jack can't invent.

      A GENERAL of distortion, lies and misdirection....

      Jack be nimble, Jack be quick, Jack doesn't know shit.

      Delete

  16. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late Sunday summoned Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon to an urgent meeting for supporting the right of a senior officer to liken the atmosphere in Israel with that of Germany in the 1930s.

    Earlier Sunday, Ya’alon said IDF commanders should continue to speak their minds on issues of morality and ethics, in an apparent reference to the controversy that followed the Holocaust Remembrance Day comments of Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan.

    “This evening, I call on you and your subordinates, once again, to keep speaking your minds. Do so even if your comments are not part of the mainstream, and even if they stand in contrast with the ideas adopted by senior command or the government,” Ya’alon said at an event attended by foreign military attaches at the Defense Ministry.


    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Yaalons-urging-IDF-officers-to-speak-their-minds-irks-Netanyahu-454056

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. The IDF General is comparing Bibi's Israel to Hitler's Germany ... and the "Band Plays On"

      Delete
    2. Misdirection, distortion is your game, reality and truth?

      Never to be found.

      Delete

    3. The IDF General said what he said, Bibi blew a gasket when he was confronted with reality.

      Perhaps you will tell us, "O"rdure that Israeli Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan is anti-Semitic?

      Delete
  17. .

    I didn't see any opinion by you on that story......

    So let it be written, so let it be done.


    QuirkSun May 15, 03:47:00 AM EDT

    .

    Notice Quirk cannot comment on the story...

    Poor Quirk


    Heck, Wio, you are the credulous one. Pity yourself.

    I gave you an opportunity to back away but since you didn't, I will be glad to comment on the story.

    We've talked on this subject before. At the time, I said I couldn't say that the charges weren't true. However, I mean that statement in the same way I might say there is a possibility that Big Foot sightings aren't all false. That is, I find the charges suspect and frankly doubt them; however, if you can offer me actual evidence or corroborating commentary from sources other than Israeli officials or Jewish writers quoting Israeli officials, I will revisit my position.

    Today, you offer us another example in the Ynet News story of an Israeli news outlet quoting an Israeli general making the same charges yet offering absolutely zero proof to back those charges up.

    It is not surprising that you would readily accept this story. You will believe anything you are fed coming out of Israel. However, I offer the following reasons for my skepticism:

    1. The story of a Hamas/ISIS collaboration has been around for at least a year. However, the only place I have seen the story appear is in Israeli papers and news services. There or in other pro-Israeli publications such as Commentary or FrontPageMag. There may be others news outlets reporting on it but I haven’t seen them. And if there were, I suspect they, like those just mentioned, would all be quoting the same Israeli sources for the stories, stories that all seem to originate with Israeli military and government sources. Why is that? Why are we presented with charges but no evidence? Why would anyone just automatically accept something coming out of the government, any government?

    2. Why haven’t I seen Egypt reporting on this? They are the country most concerned.

    3. I have looked for other sources. A short while ago, I went to google and plugged in ‘Egyptian papers report Hamas supporting ISIS’. This is what I got.

    http://search.xfinity.com/#web/egyptian+paper+says+hamas+supporting+isis

    Then, I tried ‘Egyptian spokesmen says Hamas supporting ISIS’. Again, this is what I got.

    http://search.xfinity.com/#web/egyptian+spokesman+says+hamas+supporting+isis

    Look for yourself. Perhaps, you can see why I am a little skeptical. Or, maybe not.

    :o)

    {…}

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. {...}

      QuirkSun May 15, 03:53:00 AM EDT


      {...}

      To continue the reasons I am skeptical of the Ynet article...

      4. Hamas has been fighting ISIS (along with other smaller groups such as Islamic Jihad) right along in Gaza. They will fight anyone who threatens their rule in there. When another Salafist groups tried to gain power in Gaza in 2009, Hamas wiped them out.

      5. Hamas has been trying to make nice with Egypt since Egypt closed the Rafah crossing. Would it make any sense at all for ISIS to be collaborating with ISIS against Eygpt?

      6. Both Hamas and ISIS deny they are working together and in fact seem to dislike each other very much.

      7. I have seen stories where Hamas is alleged to be helping ISIS in Syria by providing men and arms (even though ISIS recently attacked a Hamas camp there) and others like the Ynet story that claim they are helping ISIS in order to get arms. Which is it?

      8. But why would Israel concoct such a story you might ask? A possible answer is in the Ynet story itself.

      ["Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, told a Saudi news website that ISIS activists have entered Gaza from Sinai and are trading weapons and money to Hamas in return for medical care.

      Mordechai was speaking with the Saudi online newspaper Elaph. He stated that the members of ISIS entered the Gaza Strip a few days ago from Egypt via the tunnels. The purpose of their visit was to carry out military exercises in the strip, the major general relayed, which they coordinated with a source close to Hamas, Said Abed Al-Aal.

      In the interview, the coordinator explained that Hamas is aiding ISIS by providing medical treatment for its people in Gazan hospitals in exchange for money and weaponry. According to Mordechai, there is mutual coordination between the military echelons of Hamas and ISIS, which is known to Hamas's senior political leaders, as well.

      Elaph also reported that wounded have been recently transferred from the Sinai Peninsula, where ISIS is active, to Gaza.

      This report is expected to embarrass ISIS before Egypt, with whom the terrorist organization is attempting to rehabilitate its relationship. One ofHamas's goals with Egypt is to persuade the government to open the Rafah Crossing with Gaza,"
      ]

      9. But surely the Israeli government wouldn't use a false flag strategy to advance their own purposes. Well, why not, they have done it before. And who would doubt that the idea might appeal to Bibi Netanyahu who in private bragged that he personally destroyed the Oslo peace process and that he could 'easily move' Israel’s main benefactor, the US, and who recently brought down public ridicule, both inside and outside of Israel, upon himself by fabricating a story that said it was not Hitler but the Grand Mufti who came up with the idea of the Holocaust. The man is a congenital liar.

      And those are just reasons off the top of my head that would cause me to pause in accepting a self-serving story out of Israeli officials. And before you bore us all again with your tired whining about me being anti-Semitic, note that I am skeptical of any information coming out of any government sources. It is the same with the ‘Arabia and Iran’ straw men you raised, with the U.S. as in those DOD briefings Rufus puts up, and with any other countries governmental press releases.

      If you don’t understand how all of this works, WiO, perhaps you should try a little harder to learn.


      {...}

      Delete

    2. {...}

      QuirkSun May 15, 03:41:00 AM EDT

      .

      Skepticism is good.

      from the Tao of Quirk


      (Editorial comment: Demand evidence. You lose nothing by being skeptical. If the stories turn out to be true, you have lost nothing for the skepticism.)

      .

      Delete

  18. It could be that Israeli Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan just hates Jews, or he really sees a comparison between Bibi's Israel and Hitller's Germany, as do so many outside observers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. or maybe you took his words out of context...

      You know CONTEXT that's something you never use.

      Delete
    2. If that were the cas, "O"rdure, Bib would not be calling ...
      Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon to an urgent meeting for supporting the right of a senior officer to liken the atmosphere in Israel with that of Germany in the 1930s.

      http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Yaalons-urging-IDF-officers-to-speak-their-minds-irks-Netanyahu-454056

      [;-)


      Delete

    3. liken the atmosphere in Israel with that of Germany in the 1930s.


      All the context needed, supplied by the JPost

      http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Yaalons-urging-IDF-officers-to-speak-their-minds-irks-Netanyahu-454056

      Delete
  19. quirk:

    here is a news source from the most anti-israel news site in Israel, it's down right PRO-palestinan

    http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.719517



    But you wonder WHY this story is not carried in the free and open press of Egypt...

    And I thought you said your were a skeptic...

    IF you had any sense about the middle east, which you do not, you'd learn to understand that the press in Israel is open as fair as they come. Of course they'd have articles (good and bad) about the region.

    But ignore the Israeli press at your peril.

    It belays YOUR bias, not the truth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. You have often claimed that Haaretz is not Israeli, "O"rdure.

      You are a liar.

      Delete
    2. The situation in Israel is so dire that the President of the country has commented upon it in the past, now Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan of the IDF likens Israel to 1930's Germany.

      Delete

    3. “It is time to honestly admit that Israeli society is ill – and it is our duty to treat this disease,”

      - Reuven Rivlin, President of Israel

      Delete

    4. Israelis commenting upon Israel.

      Those fellows are there, up close and knowledgeable.

      Not commenting upon Israel, from Ohio, if that's where you really are, "O"rdure.
      Israelis, on the ground, in the government and the IDF, speaking the truth, from Israel.

      Meeting all your criteria for factual data sets, "O"rdure, except their reality does not fit your ideological meme.

      Sorry to have burst your bubble, not.

      Delete
  20. Several MKs on Sunday night expressed support for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, after he summoned Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon to a meeting following the latter’s call for IDF officers to express their opinion even if it is contrary to that of the political leadership.

    ...

    Ya'alon leaped to Golan's defense right after he made the comments, slamming his critics as being part of an anti-IDF campaign, and claiming Golan was "charting out a path and ethical standards with the help of (his) moral compass."

    ReplyDelete
  21. .

    Geez, WiO, what's wrong with you. You just don't get it.

    here is a news source from the most anti-israel news site in Israel, it's down right PRO-palestinan

    http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.719517


    What nonsense. Haaretz is not anti-Israel though they do appear to be liberal and opposed to some of the policies of Israel's right wing government. I don't subscribe to Haaretz. I can't afford the $1 a month subscription; but the start of the article appears the same as all the rest. They quote General Mordecai charging that Hamas and ISIS are cooperating and asking us to believe it though he offers zip in the way of proof.

    That's the point. It's the story and the lack of evidence that is offered not that the Israeli papers are quoting him. What do you expect every paper in Israel to do when they have a quote from a prominent IDF general?

    But you wonder WHY this story is not carried in the free and open press of Egypt...

    And I thought you said your were a skeptic...


    Damn, WiO, the key part of my post above wasn't about the Egyptian papers. It wasn't about Israel papers. I found that Reuters also carried the story. The problem is that they all say the same thing. And they all lack the same thing. They quote Mordecai but all they are really reporting is his saying that Hamas and ISIS are working together. That's it. No evidence. No quotes from Egyptian officials. No nothing.

    Yea, I'm skeptical for the reasons I posted above. If you want me to admit the truth of the charges simply provide some proof to back them up.

    IF you had any sense about the middle east, which you do not, you'd learn to understand that the press in Israel is open as fair as they come. Of course they'd have articles (good and bad) about the region.

    The only Israeli papers I have ever criticized have been the JP and Israel Hayom (although I have criticized a few websites and blogs).

    But ignore the Israeli press at your peril.

    More nonsense. I read the Israeli press all the time. It's not the Israeli papers we are talking about. It's not a story they researched and came up with on their own. They were fed the story. Read a few of the papers that reported this story. They all say exactly the same thing. It is about an Israeli general making charges but providing nothing to back them up.

    It belays YOUR bias, not the truth.

    No, this whole thing 'belays' your credulity. Do you believe everything you are told by the US government? I suspect not. Why would you unthinkingly believe anything coming out of the Israeli government without question?

    .

    ReplyDelete
  22. What an excellent load of pure hogwash, Quirk !

    You have done yourself proud.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you must get yourself over to Gaza and get to the bottom of this for us all.

      But could we believe your report ?

      I'm skeptical, given your 'slant' on things.

      You pick and choose your sources according to your 'bent'.

      Some sources are ruled out of court automatically.

      Your opinions on such matters are worth no more than Jack's.

      Delete
    2. One wonders how you can say anything at all, being Humean, Berkelean...

      It might be profitable for us all if you'd just shut up, and quit passing gas.

      If someone lights match in here it could be the end of us all.....

      Delete
    3. https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/hamas-isis-connection/

      Judge Quart has ruled such views as this 'out of court'....

      Judge Quart will only allow into the record views that comport with his, whatever they may be (?) given his investment in skepticism.......

      Delete
    4. The Sinai had already been transformed into something of a Wild West for terror in the years since a bloody Hamas coup allowed the group to seize control of the independent Palestinian state (in all but name) that currently exists in Gaza.

      from the linked article

      Let us recall that Judge Quart, just the other day, was claiming as 'Quart's Truth' that Gaza had been annexed and was occupied by the IDF.

      Even the brain dead know this is not so.

      Only in 'Quart World'.....

      Delete
    5. .

      :o)

      The IMA speaks and the world chuckles.

      Do you really know how goofy you sound?

      I know most of the time you just read the headlines you put up here so I’m pretty impressed that you seem to have actually read the article you put up. Your article does reference a separate article from the Times of Israel that reports that an Israeli general alleged that Hamas and ISIS are working together but then it goes on to also list all of the reasons why Hamas and ISIS wouldn’t even consider working together. But after spending most of the article talking about why they wouldn’t collaborate he launches into a whole stream of mights and mays and maybes and then tops it off with some what ifs only to come to the conclusion that the Israeli general must be right. Friggin hilarious.

      I mentioned I was impressed that you bothered to actually read past the headline on the article you put up (heck, its progress) but I doubt very much that you read the original Times of Israel that was linked to the article and formed the basis for that intellectual tome put out by Commentary, much less the Ynet article WiO put up..

      {…}

      Delete
    6. {…}

      The two articles taken together make for some interesting reading.

      [” Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, told a Saudi news website that ISIS activists have entered Gaza from Sinai and are trading weapons and money to Hamas in return for medical care.

      Mordechai was speaking with the Saudi online newspaper Elaph. He stated that the members of ISIS entered the Gaza Strip a few days ago from Egypt via the tunnels. The purpose of their visit was to carry out military exercises in the strip, the major general relayed, which they coordinated with a source close to Hamas, Said Abed Al-Aal.”
      ]

      And

      [The IDF has acquired intelligence that Hamas is providing weaponry and other support to the Islamic State’s Sinai affiliate, Wilayat Sinai, the group thought to be behind Wednesday’s deadly attack on Egyptian security services, a top Israeli officer said Thursday.

      The coordinator of government activities in the territories, Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, told the Arabic-language news network al-Jazeera that along with military support, Hamas has also been providing medical support to injured IS operatives.”
      ]

      Do you know which article came from Ynet and which from the Times of Israel? They are quite similar although they were written almost a year apart. You’ll notice it’s the same General Mordecai making the same claims, well, except that in one Hamas is providing military aid to ISIS and in the other ISIS is providing weapons and money to Hamas. The general makes the claims to foreign sources but they find their way back to Israel and then get wider publication.

      The problem I have is that the only thing we have in both stories is the claims of this particular general. Both ISIS and Hamas deny the claims and there is no confirming charges from Egypt, the country directly affected. No additional proof whatsoever. In other words, the only thing missing is corroborating evidence. Proof.

      I ask you the same question I asked WiO. Do you accept everything you hear from your own government? If so, there is nothing more to say. If not, why would you accept the words of some Israeli general you've never heard of before without asking for some real evidence or at least for confirmation from the parties actually involved?

      Time to grow up, Bobbo. Growing a brain would probably help too.

      .




      Delete
  23. The INSANITY has come to Montana -

    Montana Court strikes down law denying unemployment benefits to illegals....DRUDGE

    ReplyDelete