McCain Can Take Pennsylvania and the Election.
One million voters now separate the Democratic Party from the Republican Party in Pennsylvania.
The total PA population, 2006 estimate, is 12,281,054. 15% are older than 65.
Blacks make up 10.7% of the population. Hispanics are 4%. Of the total population, 22% are under 18. That would imply there are approximately 960,000 potential Black voters and they are 90% Democratic and in this race effectively 100% Democratic.
That would further imply that the remaining White voters are split 50/50 as Republican and Democrats. Say 4,400,000 White Democratic voters and 4,400,000 White Republican voters. Since we are assuming all Black voters are Democratic, that gives the Democrats the extra million voters over the Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Of each group, 15% is over 65, but let's say there is no preference between those over 65 towards McCain or Obama. Personally I believe they will favor McCain, but as this is speculative I will balance off the older vote that favors McCain with the small Hispanic vote, most of whom are illegal and not registered.
So lets break the numbers.
Give Obama all the potential Black votes or 960,000. Add to that 70% of the 4,400,000 White Democratic vote which is roughly 3,100,000 and Obama gets 4,060,000 votes.
Give McCain 80% of the Republican vote, 3,500,000 and 20% of the White Democratic vote, (900,000), and he gets 4,400,000 and wins. Reduce that to McCain getting 15% of White Democratic vote and McCain still wins by a nose with 4,160,000.
Of course, voter turn out is important, but I am predicting McCain wins in Pennsylvania.
The total PA population, 2006 estimate, is 12,281,054. 15% are older than 65.
Blacks make up 10.7% of the population. Hispanics are 4%. Of the total population, 22% are under 18. That would imply there are approximately 960,000 potential Black voters and they are 90% Democratic and in this race effectively 100% Democratic.
That would further imply that the remaining White voters are split 50/50 as Republican and Democrats. Say 4,400,000 White Democratic voters and 4,400,000 White Republican voters. Since we are assuming all Black voters are Democratic, that gives the Democrats the extra million voters over the Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Of each group, 15% is over 65, but let's say there is no preference between those over 65 towards McCain or Obama. Personally I believe they will favor McCain, but as this is speculative I will balance off the older vote that favors McCain with the small Hispanic vote, most of whom are illegal and not registered.
So lets break the numbers.
Give Obama all the potential Black votes or 960,000. Add to that 70% of the 4,400,000 White Democratic vote which is roughly 3,100,000 and Obama gets 4,060,000 votes.
Give McCain 80% of the Republican vote, 3,500,000 and 20% of the White Democratic vote, (900,000), and he gets 4,400,000 and wins. Reduce that to McCain getting 15% of White Democratic vote and McCain still wins by a nose with 4,160,000.
Of course, voter turn out is important, but I am predicting McCain wins in Pennsylvania.
"Murtha the Mouth" He helps in Pennsylvania.
Obama is the Universal Man, bob.
ReplyDeleteRelated to over 60% of the US residents, or some such. It was in an article linked to months agp.
Plus his African heritage, pretty directly related to a bunch of them folks, too.
Ameros to doughnuts.
But he is not his brothers keeper, that is readily visible, in his behaviour regards both his half-brother and his Auntie.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThere is a racial threshold in America in all things. if a school, restaurant, neighborhood, movie theater, shopping center, bar goes over 40% black, it is well on its way to being 100% black.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, read an article about self segregating the other day. Applies to all the races though, or used to. The Chinatowns, etc.
People tend to want to be with their own. In Seattle there used to be an area called Swede Town, where even within racial groups they segregated, Swede from Irish or German, for instance. That's changed, but the big grouping haven't much.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI already voted. Not much more that I can do and unfortunately, I won't be in the country next week. Most overseas locations do not have MSNBC. I really wanted to see that goofy missing lip motor mouthed Chris Matthews cry when Obama loses.
ReplyDeleteCrap! She coulda gone straight w/me!
ReplyDeleteIn Mexico, Sorting Out Good Guys From Bad
Crap! She coulda gone straight w/me!
ReplyDeleteIn Mexico, Sorting Out Good Guys From Bad
Don't listen to DefeatO'Rat!
ReplyDelete...just get me some goods on the High Life the Obama's are leadin.
...Cost of Girls School, ballet lessons, etc etc.
Time is short!
My FUCKING COMMENTS ARE DISAPPEARING!
ReplyDeleteIf he gets elected, nemesis will be his undoing. How long, is all, before it happens.
ReplyDeleteHe has no moral compass, at all.
He may win, but he should have taken my advice and run as half white and half black,and emphasized that white half as much as the black, and offered himself up as bridging the divide. But he hasn't. Went to Wright's church, instead.
Mentored by commies, racists, islamoids, Farakhanians, what a hell of a motley crew.
MY COMMENTS ARE GOING INTO A BLACK HOLE.
ReplyDelete...AND I AIN'T TALKIN MICHELLE!
WHERE ARE MY FUCKING COMMENTS?
ReplyDeleteANYBODY HERE SEE THEM?
TESTING
ReplyDeleteWhat went on here with the comments? New ones appeared that were not here two minutes ago, but not in sequence?
ReplyDeleteDoug, they all just popped up, but they were not here before. I refreshed again and saw others as well.
ReplyDeleteBlogger must be having a TIA.
ReplyDeleteDoug, see what you mean about the babe. she would clean up nice. sexy.
ReplyDeleteWhat time are the polls in PA scheduled to close?
ReplyDeleteThe latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.
Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).
...
McCain is now viewed favorably by 55% of Pennsylvania voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a five-point improvement for McCain from the beginning of the month and a five-point decline for Obama.
Still, 51% of Pennsylvania voters say they trust Obama more than McCain when it comes to the economy. Forty-six percent (46%) hold the opposite view and trust McCain more.
Forty-four percent (44%) rate economic issues as most important in this campaign. Nationally, the Rasmussen Consumer Index showed consumer and investor confidence falling to record lows in mid-October before improving slightly over the past two weeks.
Just 20% view national security issues as the highest priority in this election. McCain has a nine-point advantage when it comes to voter trust on national security issues.
...
Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 83.2% chance of carrying Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is listed as “Likely Democratic” ...
...
Battleground state polls released Monday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Hillary picked up the southern black drawl, for a day:)
ReplyDeleteDidn't sound authentic though, one of the more humorous moments of the campaign year.
"I ain't finished yet no way, I no to keep on....blahblah"
If Obama gets elected, nemesis will get him, sooner or later. He won't be able to pull his programs off. He'll need money, and to get it he'll gut the military and raise taxes. Raising taxes will hurt the economy. Gutting the military will invite adventurers. Sooner or later the shit hits the fan. Israel is sold out, sure as I'm sitting here, under Obama.
from American Thinker--
Please take a look at these people allied with the Obama Campaign, Some of them are Anti-Israel others are Anti-Semitic AND Anti-Israel:
Samantha Powers- She called for an invasion of Israel to impose a solution to the Palestinian Issue. She has also complained about the undue influence of the "Jews" in American Foreign Policy.
Don't forget Dick Lugar who was mentioned by the senator as one of Foreign Policy advisers during the third debate.
Robert Mally -- He expressed his support of the Palestinian "Militias" attacking Israel
Zbigniew Brzezinski who was screwing Israel as a member of the Carter Administration.
He has also been active supporting Messrs Mearsheimer and Walt's attack on the Jewish Lobby. He also said that American Jews Practice McCarthyism and that America must stop Israel from protecting herself vs Iran.
Then there is Merrill A. McPeak. He said that the only reason there is not Mid-East peace in the world is American Jews.
Daniel Kurtzer, an Orthodox Jew, was one of Secretary of State James " F**K the Jews" Baker's team of Anti-Israel "Jew Boys."
Joe Cirincione thought that talk of a Syrian Nuclear in the desert was nonsense. Immediately following Israel's air raid this past September, Cirincione listed "Israelis [who] want to thwart any dialogue between the U.S. and Syria" as among those spreading rumors Syria was constructing a nuclear facility.
How about Senator Hagel who went with Obama on his little trip to Israel. He is one of the two or three MOST Anti-Israel Senators.
Some of you may be thinking, "Just another guilt by association charge." Let me tell you why you are wrong. These are all people that Obama has chosen to surround himself with, not accedental encounters.
Hey gang!
ReplyDeleteMY COMMENTS ARE UP HERE!
HELLOOOOO!
*******************************************************************************************************************************************8
WEIRD!
ReplyDeleteGOOGLE ALREADY KNOWS ABOUT MY PLAN TO DEFEAT THE REDISTRIBUTIONIST IN WAITING.
Someone reading this thread will think we were mind reading...
ReplyDeleteMcCain sees his best chance to take away a traditionally Democratic state in Pennsylvania, where Obama has the lead. McCain campaigned in Pennsylvania after Virginia, and was to make a late-night appearance on NBC's comedy show, "Saturday Night Live."
While Obama has many combinations of states that he can use to get to 270 electoral votes, McCain's path is narrow. He has been mostly racing around states Bush won in 2004 trying to defend them.
In Newport News, McCain pounded away at what he considers his best theme, that Obama's plan to tax Americans who make over $250,000 a year could well be extended to include people who make far less and push the economy deeper into crisis.
Obama would raise taxes on income over $250,000 and says he would cut taxes for those making under $200,000.
Some confusion has arisen in these numbers in the past week because his vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, said the tax cut would go to people making under $150,000 and an Obama supporter, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, said the tax cut would apply to families making less than $120,000.
"It's interesting the way their definition of rich keeps going down," McCain said.
The Obama campaign dismissed McCain's argument.
"The governor (Richardson) meant to say that people making less than $250,000 won't see their taxes increase under President Obama," said Richardson spokesman Pahl Shipley. (Additional reporting by Andy Sullivan and Matt Spetalnick; writing by Steve Holland, editing by Doina Chaicu
Hillary tried to pick up that black southern drawl, for a day, though it fell real flat:)
ReplyDelete"I ain't done no way no how, not yet I ain't...."
If he gets elected, nemesis will get him sooner or later. He can't pull off all these programs. He'll need money, and to get it gut the military and raise taxes. Raising taxed harms the economy, gutting the military invites adverturers. The shit will hit the fan. Over Niagara Falls without a barrel we go.
Israel is sold out, if he wins.
from American Thinker--
Please take a look at these people allied with the Obama Campaign, Some of them are Anti-Israel others are Anti-Semitic AND Anti-Israel:
Samantha Powers- She called for an invasion of Israel to impose a solution to the Palestinian Issue. She has also complained about the undue influence of the "Jews" in American Foreign Policy.
Don't forget Dick Lugar who was mentioned by the senator as one of Foreign Policy advisers during the third debate.
Robert Mally -- He expressed his support of the Palestinian "Militias" attacking Israel
Zbigniew Brzezinski who was screwing Israel as a member of the Carter Administration.
He He has also been active supporting Messrs Mearsheimer and Walt's attack on the Jewish Lobby. He also said that American Jews Practice McCarthyism and that America must stop Israel from protecting herself vs Iran.
Then there is Merrill A. McPeak. He said that the only reason there is not Mid-East peace in the world is American Jews.
Daniel Kurtzer, an Orthodox Jew, was one of Secretary of State James " F**K the Jews" Baker's team of Anti-Israel "Jew Boys."
Joe Cirincione thought that talk of a Syrian Nuclear in the desert was nonsense. Immediately following Israel's air raid this past September, Cirincione listed "Israelis [who] want to thwart any dialogue between the U.S. and Syria" as among those spreading rumors Syria was constructing a nuclear facility.
How about Senator Hagel who went with Obama on his little trip to Israel. He is one of the two or three MOST Anti-Israel Senators.
Some of you may be thinking, "Just another guilt by association charge." Let me tell you why you are wrong. These are all people that Obama has chosen to surround himself with, not accedental encounters.
In fact his attitude towards Israel is that of a muslim, not an American Christian, as he claims to be.
American Christians are for Israel, at least the ones I know, and that's not the-end-of-the- worlders.
7am to 8pm, Rat.
ReplyDeleteObama-Inspired Black Voters Warm to Politics
ReplyDeleteBy SUSAN SAULNY
Published: November 1, 2008
Growing up in St. Louis in the 1950s and ’60s, Deddrick Battle came to believe that the political process was not for people like him — a struggling black man whose vote, he was convinced, surely would not count for much of anything. The thought became ingrained as an adult, almost like common sense.
Armento Meredith, 43, right, a first-time voter, waited hours in Atlanta to vote on Thursday. “It’s time for a change,” he said.
Percy Matthews, 25, of Chicago, has voted just once in his life, but said he wasn’t certain for whom. This election is different.
But a month ago, at age 55, Mr. Battle registered to vote for the first time.
Senator Barack Obama was the reason.
“This is huge,” Mr. Battle, a janitor, said after his overnight shift cleaning a movie theater. “This is bigger than life itself. When I was coming up, I always thought they put in who they wanted to put in. I didn’t think my vote mattered. But I don’t think that anymore.”
Across the country, black men and women like Mr. Battle who have long been disaffected, apolitical, discouraged or just plain bored with politics say they have snapped to attention this year, according to dozens of interviews conducted in the last several days in six states.
They are people like Percy Matthews of the South Side of Chicago, a 25-year-old who did vote once but whose experience was so forgettable that he cannot recall with certainty whom he cast a ballot for or even what year it was. Now an enthusiastic Democrat, he says the old days are gone."
I think something is screwed up with the time change.
ReplyDeleteHere's a better Pic! She coulda been my daughter-in-law!
ReplyDeleteYA THINK???
ReplyDeleteThe comments are all screwed up, alright. Post disappeared, posted again, then both reappeared.
ReplyDeleteThe comments were sucked into the noosphere, there to be contemplated by the gods, then returned to us.
And Virginia?
ReplyDeleteColumbian Cocaine!
ReplyDeleteIt's Trish's Fault!
Supporting them Narco-Fascists and forcing my girl into a life of crime!
Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 80.1% chance of carrying Virginia ...
ReplyDeleteIt's the GOOGLESPHERE,
ReplyDeleteLaBob:
Evil trick to distract me from my quest to rid this land of the evil Obamanation.
HAPPY FACE
ReplyDeleteWhere's my links, you lazy SOB's?
ReplyDelete...I'm going back to WORK!
The nation's
FATE IS IN YOUR HANDS!
Start Typin!
Except for the Democratic Philadelphia hack judges who always find a reason to keep the polls open longer in the black wards. Community organizers know how to steal.
ReplyDeleteObama made the statement in Florida about how he wants to fundamentally change America. There are a lot of neighborhoods in Pennsylvania cities that were fundamentally changed all right. Except they are now hoods. Obama sounds more and more black with an attitude. To my ear he is getting to sound like Michelle.
That helps. I just hope that there are enough real Americans who do not want to fundamentally change America and send this skinny son-of -a -bitch back to Chicago where he belongs.
6am to 7pm
ReplyDeletePolling Information Portal
I think it is a pole shift, not a time change:)
ReplyDeleteYou can start at Obama's Hyde Park Home, Doug.
Not at all like a grass shack in Hawaii:)
Then compare and contrast to brother Obama in Kenya and Auntie Zaitima in Boston.
"I'm not my brother's keeper, or my Aunt's either."
So, by about 8:00MST it'll be evident whether the opinion polling is accurate or not, Obama will have won, in both States, or we'll be in for a long night.
ReplyDeleteHe slithered up and out of Chicago, that's for sure. But he doesn't seem to have any real home. Kind of like a tumbling tumbleweed, to misuse a good image. We know Palin is from Wasilia via Idaho, but where is slitherO really from?
ReplyDeleteI've gotten so I can't stand to look at or hear the guy. Never felt quite that way about a politician before, even the ones I don't like. Charlie Rangel is always good for a laugh, for instance
I thought we weren't to report returns, even exit polling, before the polls closed on the west coast. Though this year, all the action is east of the Rockies.
ReplyDeleteThere is a factor in these polls that interests me. What is the race of the polling person? What if they are ten percent black? Would that affect the respondent?
ReplyDeleteEveryone knows that the blacks are 100% for Obama. Does that affect how people think about supporting Obama? people want at least the pretense of fairness. I have felt for some time, that if Obama were only getting 70% of the black vote, he would be better off.
There is a racial threshold in America in all things. if a school, restaurant, neighborhood, movie theater, shopping center, bar goes over 40% black, it is well on its way to being 100% black.
People do not talk about it, but in order for anything to go 100% black, it is because whites reject it. That is why you never see Obama campaigning in black areas. He wants to give the impression that he is post-racial.
The United States is not be post racial. that is reality. Obama sounds more and more like a black candidate. That will be his undoing.
Somehow Obama has picked up that Southern black sound and cadence to his voice, especially when he gets angry. He has been angry lately. That was not there in early sound and video clips. Maybe he knows something.
ReplyDeleteIt's Five O' Clock Somewhere
ReplyDeleteRemember When
ReplyDeleteThanks, LaBob.
ReplyDeleteNo thanks to the rest of you SOBS.
Go Ahead, give the country away!
...back to work.
ReplyDelete...maybe a little more Buffet.
ReplyDeleteLitty Bitty
ReplyDeleteGood ol' Labob, always ready with a helping hand, Doug.
ReplyDelete"I will change the world", he says.
Only a fool could say that and mean it. Change the entire world. The Greeks called this hubris.
The world changes, but slowly. Human nature not at all, that we know of, though it can be softened around the edges, over time, and that takes patience.
Technology changes the world, for better or worse. And Obama doesn't have a science degree.
Well, nothing good will come of it.
Goodnight, David.
Tall tall trees
ReplyDeleteI MEAN IT LABOB!
ReplyDelete...wait til tommorrow!
Doug's World Changer,
You'll see!
...if not, it's 'Rat's fault for postin that Buffet.
You're supposed to say, "Goodnight, Chet"
ReplyDeleteWe've learned heaven is at least partially made outta music. Good song, there Doug.
ReplyDeleteLike A Rock
Barack and the Boogie Pimps
ReplyDeleteNEWS FLASH: Just got some numbers on two rallies that occurred here in Williamsport PA yesterday!
ReplyDeleteSarah Palin was at one of our baseball fields,, Joe Biden was at the Lycoming college.
Biden spoke on campus at 2pm,,, Sarah was at the stadium at 7:30.
Sarah Palin had 13,000 and Biden at approx 700!!
Woot!!!
JellyToast on October 31, 2008 at 7:43 AM
As Taliban Overwhelm Police, Pakistanis Hit Back
ReplyDeleteSHALBANDI, Pakistan — On a rainy Friday evening in early August, six Taliban fighters attacked a police post in a village in Buner, a quiet farming valley just outside Pakistan’s lawless tribal region.
The militants tied up eight policemen and lay them on the floor, and according to local accounts, the youngest member of the gang, a 14-year-old, shot the captives on orders from his boss. The fighters stole uniforms and weapons and fled into the mountains.
Almost instantly, the people of Buner, armed with rifles, daggers and pistols, formed a posse, and after five days they cornered and killed their quarry. A video made on a cellphone showed the six militants lying in the dirt, blood oozing from their wounds.
The stand at Buner has entered the lore of Pakistan’s war against the militants as a dramatic example of ordinary citizens’ determination to draw a line against the militants.
Solar stocks are making a comeback. That's good news to me.
ReplyDeleteNew elections in Israel with right of centre coalition in the lead. That's good news to me.
Europe and now China are electrifying their car fleets. That's good news to me.
But America is still addicted to oil and is spending $2 trillion a year on that addiction.
You shoulda been there last night, Doug: A dance floor full of middle-aged men in dress mess Gettin' Jiggy With It. TELL ME that is not worth the entire defense budget and I will send you the film.
ReplyDeletePriceless. Just effing priceless.
From blog.foreignpolicy.com:
ReplyDeleteThis autumn, an ancient trade route that crosses the disputed Kashmiri border between India and Pakistan opened after being closed 61 years ago, when the two countries broke free of the British Empire. Many hope the opening of the trade route, in a bitterly disputed Himalayan region, will boost the economy on both sides of the “Line of Control” that divides the territory. In the photo above, the first truck carrying goods from the Pakistani side rumbles across the bridge to the Indian side.
For Kashmir's artisans, famed for their rugs, copper bowls, and other handicrafts, the opening of the trade route is a sign of hope.
[...]
Justin Logan at Cato:
ReplyDeleteFew U.S. presidential elections have been decided on the basis of foreign policy. For the first time in decades, however, both parties have fielded candidates who have chosen to emphasize their foreign policy views.
With many Americans regretting the consequences of the Bush administration's foreign policy, a relatively large number of voters are expressing interest in the topic. Accordingly, it is worth examining the candidates' views on the subject to attempt to determine what their foreign policies would look like.
Republican John McCain, with his long stint in national politics, has attempted to frame the foreign policy issue around the question of experience. But evaluating McCain's foreign policy positions reveals a candidate consistently dedicated to confrontation, threats, and the use of military power.
Democrat Barack Obama, a new face on the national scene, has chosen to emphasize the need for change in the way in which U.S. foreign policy is conducted. Obama has called for more focus on diplomacy, less on military action, and an end to the "politics of fear." However, an examination of Obama’s advisers and policy ideas makes it clear that Obama is anything but a non-interventionist.
In the end, both candidates have significant flaws in their foreign policy ideas. Yet McCain's approach seems likely to amplify and repeat the errors of the Bush administration. A President McCain would promise more provocation, more intervention, and more strain on the military, the budget, and the country.
(Link to pdf.)
"...Obama is anything but a non-interventionist." Seldom appreciated, but true, so far as we can gauge.
It is also fair to assume that once in office either candidate will play contrary to (campaign) type, as presidents do - paraphrasing someone - whatever it is they deem necessary in the instance. I certainly would not bet that an Obama presidency will be uneventful in the foreign policy realm.
I once said that all Obama would have to do to best GWB on foreign policy is to avoid stepping in the big shit. But there's plenty of big shit out there to be stepped in and with a whole host of Clinton retreads on board, the opportunities are endless.
US deaths in Iraq plunge to wartime low in October
ReplyDeleteEmail this Story
Oct 31, 6:41 PM (ET)
By ROBERT H. REID
(AP) Iraqi army soldiers check an Iraqi car at a check point in the Abu Dshir district of Baghdad, Iraq,...
BAGHDAD (AP) - U.S. deaths in Iraq fell in October to their lowest monthly level of the war, matching the record low of 13 fatalities suffered in July. Iraqi deaths fell to their lowest monthly levels of the year. Eight of the 13 Americans died in combat, most of them in northern Iraq where al-Qaida and other Sunni insurgent groups remain active. The U.S. military suffered 25 deaths in September and 23 in August.
In Afghanistan, meanwhile, 15 U.S. military deaths were reported for October. The monthly toll in that combat theater had been in the 20s since June, when 28 Americans were killed - the worst one-month total since that war began in late 2001.
The sharp drop in American fatalities in Iraq reflects the overall security improvements across the country following the Sunni revolt against al-Qaida and the rout suffered by Shiite extremists in fighting last spring in Basra and Baghdad.
But the decline also points to a shift in tactics by extremist groups, which U.S. commanders say are now focusing their attacks on Iraqi soldiers and police that are doing much of the fighting.
Iraqi government figures showed at least 364 Iraqis killed in October - including police, soldiers, civilians and militants.
Despite the sharp decline, the Iraqi death toll serves as a reminder that this remains a dangerous, unstable country despite the security gains, which U.S. military commanders repeatedly warn are fragile and reversible.
[...]
364. Not bad.
Justin Logan at Cato:
ReplyDelete...But evaluating McCain's foreign policy positions reveals a candidate consistently dedicated to confrontation, threats, and the use of military power.
As opposed to endless diplomatic "initiatives", sanctions that don't work. The statement itself is questionable on its face, but I don't have time or inclination to fisk it.
Were it up to me, I'd state a doctrine, identify consequences, and fast forward to decisive use of military power. Delete "threats" and substitute "promises". Confrontation is unavoidable, unless you favor appeasement.