Saturday, January 12, 2008

The Pressure Cooker



How would you like to be the leader of Pakistan?

In a remote, backward, feudal part of the world struggling with modernity, Pervez Musharraf lives in a pressure cooker. He is in a bind; a vice as he as he performs a balancing act between opposing forces which have been unleashed and strengthened by the current rise of Islamic extremism and the fall of the Soviet Union.

If he is still around in February 2009 he's going to feel even more pressure from the United States to do something about the extremists in the FATA areas of Northwest Pakistan.


Report:
Pakistan warns US of entering border regions to fight al-Qaida


The Associated Press

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan


President Pervez Musharraf warned that U.S. troops would be regarded as invaders if they crossed into Pakistan's border region with Afghanistan in the hunt for al-Qaida or Taliban militants, according to an interview published Friday.

Musharraf, whose popularity has plummeted amid a surge in extremist attacks in recent months, also told Singapore's The Straits Times that he would resign if opposition parties tried to impeach him following next month's parliamentary elections.

Pakistan is under growing U.S. pressure to crack down on militants in its tribal regions close to the Afghan border.

The rugged area has long been considered a likely hiding place for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, as well as an operating ground for Taliban militants planning attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan.

The New York Times reported last week that Washington was considering expanding the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to peruse aggressive covert operations within the tribal regions.

Musharraf told the Straits Times that U.S. troops would "certainly" be considered invaders if they set foot in the tribal regions.

"If they come without our permission, that's against the sovereignty of Pakistan. I challenge anybody coming into our mountains," he said in the interview in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. "They would regret that day."

Musharraf, who seized power in a military coup eight years ago, is also under growing domestic pressure.

The party of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and the other main opposition grouping are predicted to make gains in the Feb. 18 polls. They have vowed to oust Musharraf if they emerge as winners. Musharraf is seen as vulnerable to impeachment over his decision to fire Supreme Court judges and suspend the constitution last year.

"If that (impeachment) happens, let me assure that I'd be leaving office before they would do anything. If they won with this kind of majority and they formed a government that had the intention of doing this, I wouldn't like to stick around," he said. "I would like to quit the scene."

******Desert Rat also noted this article in one of Friday's threads. ******

Musharraf knows his real problem is not with the US violating his sovereignty. His problems are with the opposition politicians, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and their sympathisers in the military, and the lawyers in his country. Another problem for Musharraf are those in the west, especially the media who insist that he resign. He is being squeezed from all sides and I don't envy the man. If occasionally he finds it necessary to make statements such as the one quoted in this article, we in the west shouldn't get our knickers twisted in knots.

It's not a good situation in Pakistan and from our viewpoint, progress in the WOT has been woefully inadequate as Musharraf seems to start and stop military actions in the Tribal areas but he is the ally we are stuck with for now. Stratfor has said that we can expect 2008 to be a stalemate year in Afghanistan. They say that we can expect a large increase in suicide bombers but neither NATO nor the Taliban have the wherewithal to advance their causes in southern Afghanistan. Musharraf is not the only one walking a tight rope.


7 comments:

  1. John Vincent Coulter
    By Ann Coulter

    John Vincent Coulter was of the old school, a man of few words, the un-Oprah, no crying or wearing your heart on your sleeve, and reacting to moments of great sentiment with a joke. Or as we used to call them: men.

    When he was moping around the house once, missing my brother who had just gone back to college, he said, "Well, if you had cancer long enough, you'd miss it."
    ---
    Father hated puffery, pomposity, snobbery, fake friendliness, fake anything. Like Kitty's father in "Anna Karenina," he could detect a substanceless suitor in a heartbeat. (They were probably the same ones who looked nervous when I told them Father was ex-FBI and liked to shoot squirrels in the backyard.)

    He hated unions because of their corrupt leadership, ripping off the members for their own aggrandizement. But he had more respect for genuine working men than anyone I've ever known. He was, in short, the molecular opposite of John Edwards.

    Father didn't care what popular opinion was: There was right and wrong. I don't recall his ever specifically talking about J. Edgar Hoover or Joe McCarthy, but we knew he thought the popular histories were bunk. That's why "Treason" was dedicated to him, the last book of mine he was able to read.

    When Father returned from the war, he used the G.I. Bill to complete college and law school in three years. In order to get to law school quickly, he chose the easiest college major -- a major that so impressed him, he told my oldest brother that if he ever took one single course in sociology, Father would cut off his tuition payments.

    ReplyDelete
  2. doug said...
    Here's my contribution to the Pakistan Post that disappeared:
    ---
    An al-Qaeda offensive against Musharraf?

    Just after CNN reported that terror bombings in Pakistan had reached "unprecedented" heights; and not long after Bill Roggio reported security services had arrested the leader and five members of a Lahore-based suicide cell another suicide attack killed 22 people outside a high court building.
    At least 22 police and civilians were killed and 70 wounded in the attack. The blast was described as "powerful."

    Geo News reported the attack was conducted by a suicide bomber wearing a vest. The police were standing guard preparing for a protest by lawyers.
    "Six or seven [police]constables lost their lives on the spot while others succumbed to their injuries on way to hospital and in the process of [receiving] first aid," a doctor told the Associate Press of Pakistan, the government’s news service.

    The Stratfor Geopolitical Diary says things could get worse. When "the Islamic New Year begins in Pakistan on Friday ... it could bring increased Shiite-Sunni violence,
    and further threaten President Pervez Musharraf's hold on power." The version of the report behind the subscription wall tallies a number of indicators none of
    which bode well for Pakistan, such as capital flight and a collapsing real
    estate market. The Islamic New Year is apparently signals the start of the
    yearly sectarian feud the world over. "Muharram is not only the first month of
    the Islamic calendar, it is also the month in which much Shiite-Sunni sectarian violence occurs in the Muslim world, especially in Pakistan." But this time,
    al-Qaeda may attempt to exploit the season of ill-will to add impetus to its
    campaign against Musharraf. This is why the country abounds with rumors that,
    should an outbreak of sectarian violence occur during the initial days of
    Muharram, the government might exploit the situation and further postpone
    elections. It is not at all clear, of course, whether this will happen. What is
    certain, however, is that conditions are explosive and such speculation is not
    unwarranted.

    Read more! posted by Wretchard

    What a mess

    Bill Roggio captures a sense of the tangled web that is Pakistan in four
    pithy paragraphs. (Emphasis mine) Pakistani security forces have captured the
    leader of an al Qaeda suicide cell which was behind the attack on the Sargodha
    military base last fall. Ahsan al Haq and five cell members have been detained
    by Pakistani security forces in the city of Lahore,
    Reuters reported.
    "We recovered explosives and jackets used for suicide bombings at
    his house next to a madrassa (Islamic school)," and anonymous intelligence
    official told Reuters. "All of them admitted they were behind the Sargodha
    attack and were planning to carry out similar attacks, even against
    politicians." Al Haq is a retired Pakistani Army major "was said have been close
    to Afghan Muslim guerrilla commander Younis Khalis, who battled Soviet forces in the 1980s and later had links with the Taliban," Reuters reported. "Haq ran a
    militant training camp in Afghanistan during Taliban rule." ... The Sargodha Air
    Force Base is a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab
    province. The Taliban and al Qaeda have conducted multiple strikes on or near
    Pakistani nuclear facilities, as well as against military and police facilities
    situated near nuclear facilities. There have been two suicide attacks at
    Sargodha since the summer of 2007. A fanatical suicide ideology (al-Qaeda)
    propagated through the school system (madrassa) endowed with sympathizers in the
    local Army (as represented by the retired Major) ready to carry out their
    program to seize nuclear weapons and rule the world! Not since the days of the
    Republic Serials have the villains and situations been so outlandish.
    Read more!
    posted by Wretchard

    Sat Jan 12, 08:10:00 AM EST

    ReplyDelete
  3. Every article I have read, in reagards Pakistan and the nuclear weapons states the same storyline. The Army has them well in hand. They are "secure".

    Who has the Army, that question is almost never addressed. As if the Pakistani Army were a State, unto its' secular self. Which it is not, though it is a pillar of Pakistani society.

    There is no good way forward, Pakistan a vital part of the global-zone of percolating violence, another remnant of the British Empire, dissolving into a potpourri of violent sectarian States, starting in 1947/48.

    Not a good place to be.
    A nuclear armed mussulman country where civil society is being disconstructed before our eyes, and with our support.

    Better ship those weapons to Saudi Arabia, if they have not been already. The stabilty of the Saudi regime the US can and will guarentee.
    For a variety of reasons.

    ReplyDelete
  4. cut the cash to pakistan give it to india

    make it public

    reward friends, cut off enemies

    ReplyDelete
  5. wi"o"

    We have been rewarding friends

    $10 Billion USD in rewards,
    publicly admitted to.

    Our friends the Indians also will be rewarded, if they choose to ratify the new Treaty.
    The ball is in India's court, we have advanced the option, but so far they do not want the funding or the friendship. To many puppet strings involved, to suit their tastes.
    Those foolish Hindu folk think India should retain its' sovereignty.

    Last Updated:(18/10/2007)

    Even as India has put its civil nuclear deal with the US apparently on hold, the American business lobby has vowed to keep working for speedy Congressional approval of the 123 Agreement.

    It would do so as soon as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) provide the green signal, the US-India Business Council made up of 300 largest US companies seeking more trade with India said Wednesday.

    USIBC remains confident that the nuclear deal will be successfully concluded, the advocacy group's President Ron Somers told the Coalition for Partnership with India, an umbrella group of business leaders, Indian Americans and security experts supporting the deal.

    USIBC also looks forward to working closely with Indian industry to mobilise the massive investment required to achieve India's infrastructure build-out, estimated to cost $500 billion over the next decade, he said. "The US-India civilian nuclear accord will open the floodgates of opportunity that will propel India's growth far into the 21st century - India's century.

    "I take encouragement from the recent statement of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that the deal will happen eventually, and from comments from prominent members of the Congress, who have affirmed that the deal is too important to let fail," Somers said.

    "This indicates to me that while more time may be necessary for consensus to be achieved supporting the merits of the deal, the technology denial regime imposed on India for decades will finally come to an end. This is good for India, good for the US, and good for the entire world."

    ReplyDelete
  6. The Universe itself is a pressure cooker. New discoveries of all the violent massive events that are found to be taking place.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Here's what I REALLY said!
    ----
    An al-Qaeda offensive against Musharraf?

    Just after CNN reported that terror bombings in Pakistan had reached "unprecedented" heights; and not long after Bill Roggio reported security services had arrested the leader and five members of a Lahore-based suicide cell another suicide attack killed 22 people outside a high court building.
    At least 22 police and civilians were killed and 70 wounded in the attack. The blast was described as "powerful."

    Geo News reported the attack was conducted by a suicide bomber wearing a vest. The police were standing guard preparing for a protest by lawyers.
    "Six or seven [police]constables lost their lives on the spot while others succumbed to their injuries on way to hospital and in the process of [receiving] first aid," a doctor told the Associate Press of Pakistan, the government’s news service.

    The Stratfor Geopolitical Diary says things could get worse. When "the Islamic New Year begins in Pakistan on Friday ... it could bring increased Shiite-Sunni violence,
    and further threaten President Pervez Musharraf's hold on power." The version of the report behind the subscription wall tallies a number of indicators none of
    which bode well for Pakistan, such as capital flight and a collapsing real
    estate market. The Islamic New Year is apparently signals the start of the
    yearly sectarian feud the world over. "Muharram is not only the first month of
    the Islamic calendar, it is also the month in which much Shiite-Sunni sectarian violence occurs in the Muslim world, especially in Pakistan." But this time,
    al-Qaeda may attempt to exploit the season of ill-will to add impetus to its
    campaign against Musharraf. This is why the country abounds with rumors that,
    should an outbreak of sectarian violence occur during the initial days of
    Muharram, the government might exploit the situation and further postpone
    elections. It is not at all clear, of course, whether this will happen. What is
    certain, however, is that conditions are explosive and such speculation is not
    unwarranted.

    Read more!
    posted by Wretchard

    What a mess

    Bill Roggio
    captures a sense of the tangled web that is Pakistan in four
    pithy paragraphs. (Emphasis mine) Pakistani security forces have captured the
    leader of an al Qaeda suicide cell which was behind the attack on the Sargodha
    military base last fall. Ahsan al Haq and five cell members have been detained
    by Pakistani security forces in the city of Lahore,
    Reuters reported.
    "We recovered explosives and jackets used for suicide bombings at
    his house next to a madrassa (Islamic school)," and anonymous intelligence
    official told Reuters. "All of them admitted they were behind the Sargodha
    attack and were planning to carry out similar attacks, even against
    politicians." Al Haq is a retired Pakistani Army major "was said have been close
    to Afghan Muslim guerrilla commander Younis Khalis, who battled Soviet forces in the 1980s and later had links with the Taliban," Reuters reported. "Haq ran a
    militant training camp in Afghanistan during Taliban rule." ... The Sargodha Air
    Force Base is a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab
    province. The Taliban and al Qaeda have conducted multiple strikes on or near
    Pakistani nuclear facilities, as well as against military and police facilities
    situated near nuclear facilities. There have been two suicide attacks at
    Sargodha since the summer of 2007. A fanatical suicide ideology (al-Qaeda)
    propagated through the school system (madrassa) endowed with sympathizers in the
    local Army (as represented by the retired Major) ready to carry out their
    program to seize nuclear weapons and rule the world! Not since the days of the
    Republic Serials have the villains and situations been so outlandish.
    Read more!
    posted by Wretchard

    ReplyDelete