Mr. President, Will it be “veni, vidi, vici.”? Or, "It Was Hard Work, But I Stayed the Course, With Remorse."

Last night, three stories, apparently unrelated, caught my attention and interest. One was the article regarding the poor execution of the Iraq war by the Bush Administration, which appears in Vanity Fair. Simply, it is about the Neocons turning on Bush. (hattip DesertRat) The second, appears in the Times about six Arab nations contemplating going nuclear, and the third about the video of Hamas directed Palestinian woman going into a mosque to act as human shields to help trapped insurgents escape from the Israeli Army.

If you watch the video of the hundreds of Palestinian woman rushing to the mosque, you see two things, the dress of the woman, and the results of the Israeli troops shooting what has been described as unarmed woman. The woman were gathered up by Hamas to perform a military maneuver. The tactic was to have a large crowd of woman, covered with the hijabs and long full body dress, and mass into a mosque where Hamas fighters were hiding. They would give similar dress to the trapped fighters, and allow them to mingle with the woman and escape. Hamas took the risk that the Israelis would not fire. Some Israelis saw through the ruse and opened fire, killing several and wounding several others. The firing initially dispersed the woman, but some Israeli officer halted the shooting and the tactic worked as the trapped fighters escaped, dressed as woman.

All of those woman, some knowingly, others naively, were participating in a military operation. None were innocents. Hamas knew that. Hamas knew cameras would be there and Hamas knew the Israelis would be in an impossible predicament, where they would lose regardless of what they did. The lesson here is that to Hamas and similar ME groups, any tactic is acceptable in their war against Israel and against the West. All are combatants, because all is war. They will use anything and do anything to achieve their goal which is victory. Now add the nuclear weapons.

Because of the painfully slow process of getting the EU and the US to come up with a credible strategy with Iran, and the outrageous and unforgivable interference by Russia and in a lesser role China, Iran will have a nuclear weapon. The Arab states in the region are not going to tolerate a nuclear Iran without having their own nuclear protection. They do not trust Iran. Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, UAE and Saudi Arabia will all seek atomic technology and ultimately nuclear weapons. As discussed in Vanity Fair, the US failure to stabilize Iraq, has broken respect and trust in US leadership and capabilities.

No one trusts the United States to either successfully rule in the ME , or force order and stability; no one. That is the damage done by the Iraq war. It is not important how or why that happened. It is what it is and cannot be easily undone, yet it must be undone. As we have painfully learned, Hamas and every other radical Islamic group will use anything to achieve their goals. That anything cannot and must not be nuclear weapons. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, all bets are off. A nuclear Middle East will be a dismal fact of life or death.

Instability, militant Islam, nuclear proliferation and the apparent lack of effective US leadership is a very bad combination. George Bush with or without Congress is going to be President for two more years. We do not have two more years to waste and not make serious progress in dealing with the Middle East. After the election , a wise President will have to make some very difficult and necessary changes to reassert American Leadership and begin to fix a very broken foreign policy. Europe must be brought on board. Israeli security must be addressed. Equally, the security of the Arab states must be guaranteed in some credible fashion. This is the most difficult position the US has been in for some time. The team of Rumsfeld and Rice is not going to do it. Everyone, including the Europeans will be tempted to wait out the balance of the Bush Administration and hope for something new and better from the next US President.

Can Bush do it. Yes, if he is wise enough to make the decision to get rid of the people who have failed his administration and the country. No, if he is too stubborn and weak to make the difficult decision of firing people he likes. Bush must quickly install a new team of recognizably respected and talented people who will demonstrate a firm American resolve to fix one hell of a mess. I open to debate recommendations as to who the people should be and what is a realistic strategy to bring stability to the Middle East.