tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post4445497596525021019..comments2024-03-29T06:35:11.321-04:00Comments on The Elephant Bar: The Mother of all Short SqueezesDeuce ☂http://www.blogger.com/profile/13472858446242700869noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-23774787648331557912013-06-03T11:23:05.706-04:002013-06-03T11:23:05.706-04:00Burned out at work making your BOSS S dream come
...Burned out at work making your BOSS S dream come <br />true student loans people financial services. To look for a venue.<br /><br />Though she may be carrying the child to term with one difference.<br />One possible reason could be that you develop with <br />your customers. Online student loans people tips saves automatic exhaust that may be on the line and a professional online student loans people company to be <br />more decorative, with more than usual, and purchasing <br />later than usual.<br /><br />Also visit my web blog ... <a href="http://youngbusiness.info" rel="nofollow">Private Student Loans for People</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-85727166930157305762012-04-26T09:12:59.182-04:002012-04-26T09:12:59.182-04:00.
As always, Bobbo, we report you decide.
Bes....<br /><br />As always, Bobbo, we report you decide. <br /><br />Besides, the researcher was from St. Petersburg, Fl. The only ones there are all over 80 years old.<br /><br />As for alive an well, don't I recall that you went on for weeks (giving some people here the creeps) about how you had the hots for that rather elderly (old enough to be your grandmother?) lady who was giving your daughter riding lessons?<br /><br />As for Cartagena, are you enjoying the senior discount?<br /><br />.Quirkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272168240606512672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-14050268843459560562012-04-26T06:44:18.755-04:002012-04-26T06:44:18.755-04:00According to the Bank of International Settlements...<i>According to the Bank of International Settlements, U.S. banks have loaned only $60.5 billion to banks in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy - the countries most at risk of default. But they've lent $275.8 billion to French and German banks.</i><br /><br /><i>And undoubtedly bet trillions on the same debt.</i><br /><br />...<br /><br /><i>There is not enough capital on hand to cover the possible losses associated with the default of a single counterparty - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), BNP Paribas SA (PINK: BNPQY) or the National Bank of Greece (NYSE ADR: NBG) for example - let alone multiple failures.</i><br /><br /><a href="http://moneymorning.com/2011/10/12/derivatives-the-600-trillion-time-bomb-thats-set-to-explode/" rel="nofollow">Derivatives: The [$700] Trillion Time Bomb that's Set to Explode (Link)</a><br /><br />You do the math. Ordinary debt is smugly tame by comparison.<br /><br />****************************<br /><br /><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/9-banks-combine-for-over-200-trillion-derivatives-exposure-2012-4" rel="nofollow">Infographic (Link)</a>Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-71937847211527299872012-04-26T06:08:36.597-04:002012-04-26T06:08:36.597-04:00The sound of hell freezing over.The sound of hell freezing over.Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-72177986811476368892012-04-26T02:29:05.656-04:002012-04-26T02:29:05.656-04:00Q Brain Not Found - G Spot Unconfirmed
Ah come on...<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/25/don-t-believe-the-g-spot-hype.html" rel="nofollow">Q Brain Not Found - G Spot Unconfirmed</a><br /><br />Ah come on Quirk, the cadaver of an eighty year old woman????<br /><br />No wonder you passed on Cartegena.<br /><br />They're alive down there.<br /><br />jeez!<br /><br />bobboAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-5308174309952761442012-04-25T22:41:03.080-04:002012-04-25T22:41:03.080-04:00Maxine to head up our Energy Department.
NOT Maxi...Maxine to head up our Energy Department.<br /><br />NOT Maxine Waters, who, I recall, wanted to nationalize the oil and gas companies, though she had to struggle to recall the word 'nationalize'.<br /><br />The democratic party is just filled with idiots is it not?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-89389773270583984672012-04-25T22:38:55.694-04:002012-04-25T22:38:55.694-04:00Headlines:
'HIT THEM AS HARD AS YOU CAN'...Headlines:<br /><br /><br /><i>'HIT THEM AS HARD AS YOU CAN'...<br />Senator launches probe over scare tactics...<br />VIDEO...<br />Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9 a gallon...<br /><br /><br />EPA OFFICIAL: 'CRUCIFY' OIL & GAS COMPANIES </i><br /><br /><br />Now there's a hell of a good idea: crucify the oil and gas companies.<br /><br />That ought to do 'er.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-76447976573256344622012-04-25T22:34:01.552-04:002012-04-25T22:34:01.552-04:00Remember Charles? This was his thesis.
Ol' ...Remember Charles? <a href="http://www.wnd.com/2012/04/film-presidents-father-not-barack-obama/" rel="nofollow">This</a> was his thesis.<br /><br />Ol' Jerome keeps pushing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-18391444068265352542012-04-25T22:29:34.615-04:002012-04-25T22:29:34.615-04:00Neither a borrower nor a lender be,
For loan oft l...<i>Neither a borrower nor a lender be,<br />For loan oft loses both itself and friend,<br />And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.</i><br /><br />Build soil.<br /><br />.....<br /><br />Well my wife and I were talking about how fucked up things are now in the megacities and the burbs and our conclusion was we got too many people and too few farms.<br /><br />You folks will have to figure it out.<br /><br />Wow, did my daughter work up a sweat on the horse today!<br /><br />Though her friend Craig seems to have been fired. The letter said 'mutually agreed to separation' we aren't believing any of it, cause he loved it there.<br /><br />If I had to really guess? He turned down an amorous advance from the lonely owner lady.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-91056376363796170422012-04-25T22:06:24.021-04:002012-04-25T22:06:24.021-04:00p.s. you ever get bad debt? Money you thought was...p.s. you ever get bad debt? Money you thought was good but wasn't? It sucks.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-40610425022516258062012-04-25T21:59:39.170-04:002012-04-25T21:59:39.170-04:00I share your cynicism, in spades.
First off, no...I share your cynicism, in spades. <br /><br />First off, no the US does not drive the world but it sure as hell is the most significant player, the worlds largest economy but even then (and no I'm not going to research it) it doesn't represent more than 50% of world GDP (ok, a quick google - approx. 26%). So, big yeah, but not all there is and, I'm guessing, declining.<br /><br />We've got a demographic problem in the developed world. The boomers are aging and the system is set up for 1. growth, 2. the working supporting the aged. With an aging population growth is a problem (i.e. there is little to none in a system designed for growth - debt) and there are declining numbers of working folk to support those aged folk (accustomed to a comfortable lifestyle). <br /><br />I've always found the US steel business to be an interesting model. Basically the bankrupted the companies (screwing the pensioners) and re-formed the companies with out those liabilities. They became profitable -oh my, well done!... unless you are one of those pensioners that got screwed.<br /><br />Anyway, then you got the financial crisis of 08. OH NOOO Goldman Sach's et al are going to go belly up. The big mucky mucks (Paulson, ex - goldman) says OH NOOO, the street is going belly up. Let's make 'em banks (you know, just like deposit taking institutions) so they can belly up to the Fed and get free cash. Presto, done. Oh, and yah, TARP too!<br /><br />I think they should have held the line. Let the suckers fail and backstopped FDIC. For stimulus, well, put money in the pockets of PEOPLE via tax holidays, tax credits, infrastructure projects.<br /><br />They didn't but in the end they gotta keep the check clearing system going....<br /><br />ya, I share your cynicism.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-76074138102241272882012-04-25T21:42:33.963-04:002012-04-25T21:42:33.963-04:00I await, breathless, your debunking of my accounti...I await, breathless, your debunking of my accounting in the simplified version. While doing so please consider:<br /><br />Definition of 'Notional Value'<br />The total value of a leveraged position's assets.<br /><br />Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/notionalvalue.asp#ixzz1t6eqQqq1<br /><br /><br /><br />What PIIGS debt and leverage has to do with your argument I also will wait patiently for an explanation.<br /><br />In short, the headline number, 700 TRILLION, OMYGOD 700 TRILLION does not, I repeat, does not, equate to a debt of 700 TRILLION.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-19042271537054968102012-04-25T21:23:10.386-04:002012-04-25T21:23:10.386-04:00.
Economically, the US currently drives the world....<br /><br />Economically, the US currently drives the world.<br /><br />We had a jolt in 2008; however, rather than trying to address the reasons for for that jolt, the GOP has done everything in its power to prevent, stymie, and/or repeal any regulations that were designed to address those abuses and minimize the risks.<br /><br />The reason they give for opposing those regulations? The US might lose its place as derivative capital of the world. Lordy.<br /><br />.Quirkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272168240606512672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-56961665048608153552012-04-25T21:15:12.317-04:002012-04-25T21:15:12.317-04:00.
Ash, the "reply" link didn't work....<br /><br />Ash, the "reply" link didn't work above.<br /><br /><br /><i>If those sovereign's, bankers and bondholders goe the rest of us will be in an... uncomfortable spot.</i><br /><br />That's what we heard four years ago.<br /><br />I didn't like the idea of TARP and QE initially, but I thought they were necessary and the right thing to do. <br /><br />At the time. <br /><br />In fact, I still think it was the right to do.<br /><br />Then. <br /><br />However, it's beeen four years. I'm no economist, haven't a clue really, and you can just call me cynical, but I see the game as rigged with me on the losing end. When you have the Fed Chairman saying he will do whatever it takes to support the stock market, you know something is wrong. And who is in the market? It sure isn't the individual investor. It's the institutional investor. And what are they doing with their profits? They aren't investing it in plant and equipment that's for sure. They are investing in more paper (CDO, CDS, Asset Swaps, index and options on all of these, etc..) They are also speculating on commodities. Nothing they are doing is creating jobs or adding intrinsic value. They are merely making money for the players involved. And at the same time, the are increasing the risk exponentially. And who is responsible for the risk? If history is any clue, it sure isn't the players. It's you and me.<br /><br />How long can you continue to create additional paper, collateralizing finite assets, thus magnifying the risk exponentially before the dominoes start falling? And when that happens who will be the first to get screwed?<br /><br /><br />You say we "will be in an...uncomfortable spot"?<br /><br />I feel like I'm in kind of an uncomfortable spot right now. <br /><br />.Quirkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272168240606512672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-63297317853282347712012-04-25T21:07:46.438-04:002012-04-25T21:07:46.438-04:00Boring flies under the radar.
The Betty Boop anal...Boring flies under the radar.<br /><br />The Betty Boop analogue of LiLo.<br /><br />Why the finance boys are orders of magnitude more dangerous to our way of life than those "grim and determined" Marxists in Washington.Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-15899022392563645712012-04-25T21:05:10.200-04:002012-04-25T21:05:10.200-04:00Which is why it *always* crashes.
Nobody cares ab...Which is why it *always* crashes.<br /><br />Nobody cares about the runup.<br /><br />It's a derivatives bubble.<br /><br />And it's gonna pop.<br /><br />Like your ... oh never mind.Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-44636164726806030172012-04-25T21:02:00.128-04:002012-04-25T21:02:00.128-04:00Jesus economics is boring.
bobJesus economics is boring.<br /><br />bobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-51175386798470735992012-04-25T20:53:36.041-04:002012-04-25T20:53:36.041-04:00IOW, a 'marginally' subtle point, the $700...IOW, a 'marginally' subtle point, the $700 trillion number (and growing!!) is alarming for what it says is necessary to ensure global economic growth.<br /><br />In the words of Tyler Durden:<br /><br /><i>Indicatively, global GDP is about $63 trillion if one can trust any numbers released by modern governments. Said otherwise, for the six month period ended June 30, 2011, the total number of outstanding derivatives surged past the previous all time high of $673 trillion from June 2008, and is now firmly in 7-handle territory: the synthetic credit bubble has now been blown to a new all time high. Another way of looking at the data is that one of the key contributors to global growth and prosperity in the past 10 years was an increase in total derivatives from just under $100 trillion to $708 trillion in exactly one decade. And soon we have to pay the mean reversion price.</i><br /><br />But yes, when the credit bubble bursts, the notional value will be due. Which has some people worried about the payable upon due scenario.Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-6263809297621005422012-04-25T20:39:43.127-04:002012-04-25T20:39:43.127-04:00Using your example of $100 to insure a one million...Using your example of $100 to insure a one million default:<br /><br />Notional value: $1 million<br /><br />Gross market value (replacement cost of the contract): $100<br /><br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/707568901000000-how-and-why-banks-increased-total-outstanding-derivatives-record-107-trillion-6" rel="nofollow">From Zerohedge:</a><br /><br /><i>There is much more than can be said on this topic, and has to be said, because an increase of that magnitude is simply impossible to perceive without alarm bells going off everywhere, especially when one considers the pervasive deleveraging occurring at every sector but the government. All else equal, this move may well explain the massive surge in bank profitability in the first half of the year. It also means that with banks suffering massive losses, and rumors of bank runs and collateral calls, not to mention the aftermath of the MF Global insolvency, the world financial syndicate will have no choice but to increase gross notional even more, even as the market value continues to get ever lower, thus sparking the risk of the mother of all margin calls: a veritable credit fission reaction.</i><br /><br />...<br /><br /><i>Expect to see gross market value declines persisting even as the now parabolic increase in total notional persists. At this rate we would not be surprised to see one quadrillion in OTC derivatives by the middle of next year.</i><br /><br /><i>And, once again for those confused, the fact that notional had to increase so epically as market value tumbled most likely means that the global derivative pyramid scheme (no pun intended) is almost over.</i>Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-3229037500862757052012-04-25T19:52:06.549-04:002012-04-25T19:52:06.549-04:00If the US were to default in my simplified version...<i>If the US were to default in my simplified version than Company B would be on the hook for 1 million bucks.</i><br /><br />You are wrong (the accounting, not the fictional numbers) but I'm going to have to work it out (later), starting with (1) total PIIGS debt maturing in 2012 is something over $700 billion and (2) leverage ratios between 30 and 60 (as opposed to the traditional 12 used by prudent risk managers.) Any way one slices and dices those two numbers, the exposure of Wall St to PIIGS sovereign default is sufficient to ensure collapse of major investment houses. <br /><br />I will agree that the likelihood of that happening is small considering that banks control the institutional infrastructure of global finance.<br /><br /><i>The real world of derivatives is more complex and the contracts vary wildly.</i><br /><br />Tell that to the Greek finance ministry.Max (short for Maxine)http://url.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-20356363965509577232012-04-25T18:10:25.075-04:002012-04-25T18:10:25.075-04:00The article goes on to note the political gridlock...The article goes on to note the political gridlock in the US. <br /><br />If those sovereign's, bankers and bondholders goe the rest of us will be in an... uncomfortable spot.<br /><br />Spiraling down the drain of deflation.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-90209350578302936842012-04-25T17:59:29.931-04:002012-04-25T17:59:29.931-04:00.
Interesting, but why would I trust the IMF?
Ba....<br /><br />Interesting, but why would I trust the IMF?<br /><br />Bankers protecting sovereign accounts first, protecting bankers next, and protecting bondholders and the rest of us last.<br /><br />.Quirkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00272168240606512672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-72580049524708574132012-04-25T16:55:43.910-04:002012-04-25T16:55:43.910-04:00more fiscal fun:
"Fed largely hamstrung as U...more fiscal fun:<br /><br />"Fed largely hamstrung as U.S. approaches ‘fiscal cliff’ <br /><br /><br />KEVIN CARMICHAEL <br /><br />They call it the “fiscal cliff.” <br /><br />On the first day of 2013, the Bush-era tax cuts revert back to previous levels, and the more than $1-trillion (U.S.) in arbitrary budget cuts that Congress approved last year are scheduled to begin.<br /> <br />It would be a self-inflicted wound of historic proportions. The International Monetary Fund is so worried that U.S. lawmakers will drive over the cliff that it ranks the possibility as a threat equal to that posed by the European Debt crisis. The Bank of Canada also is talking about it, as there would be no escape from the economic damage that would occur from such a massive stroke of budget consolidation.<br /> <br />Think of it this way. If the U.S. stays on its current path -- tax rates remains at current levels, etc. -- debt held by the public will swell to 90 per cent of gross domestic product by 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Not good. But if President Barack Obama’s extension of the Bush tax cuts is allowed to expire at the end of the year and the agreed budget measures go through as planned, the deficit will shrink to 65 per cent of GDP over the same period, according to CBO. In this era of debt, that’s an attractive number.<br /> <br />But with the private sector barely able to keep the U.S. economy growing faster than 2 per cent, that level of fiscal consolidation is more than the economy can handle, according to the IMF. It would “severely undermine the recovery and economic growth,” the fund said last week in its latest economic outlook."<br /><br />http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/fed-largely-hamstrung-as-us-approaches-fiscal-cliff/article2413518/Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-58255088954348409712012-04-25T16:53:41.313-04:002012-04-25T16:53:41.313-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21297199.post-84383928656528516032012-04-25T16:32:48.218-04:002012-04-25T16:32:48.218-04:00from wiki on Credit Defualt Swap
"A credit d...from wiki on Credit Defualt Swap<br /><br />"A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan default or other credit event. The buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (the CDS "fee" or "spread") to the seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if the loan defaults.<br /> <br />In the event of default the buyer of the CDS receives compensation (usually the face value of the loan), and the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan.[1] However, anyone can purchase a CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and who have no direct insurable interest in the loan (these are called "naked" CDSs). If there are more CDS contracts outstanding than bonds in existence, a protocol exists to hold a credit event auction; the payment received is usually substantially less than the face value of the loan.[2] The European Parliament has approved a ban on naked CDSs, since 1 December 2011, but the ban only applies to debt for sovereign nations.[3]<br /> <br />Credit default swaps have existed since the early 1990s, and increased in use after 2003. By the end of 2007, the outstanding CDS amount was $62.2 trillion,[4] falling to $26.3 trillion by mid-year 2010[5] but reportedly $25.5[6] trillion in early 2012.[7]"<br /><br />Even though the outstanding CDS amount may have been 62.2 trillion that kind of money didn't change hands.Ashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688752302081088907noreply@blogger.com